FPL notes: Toney scare, why Gross was benched + £4.5m Muniz

The Fantasy Premier League (FPL) talking points from two more of Saturday’s matches are covered in this latest Scout Notes article.

This time, it’s Brentford v Chelsea and Fulham v Brighton and Hove Albon.

TONEY LIMPING

Ivan Toney (£8.2m) was seen limping in injury time of Brentford’s draw with Chelsea on Saturday afternoon.

The striker hobbled out of a challenge with Raheem Sterling (£6.9m), with The Athletic’s Jay Harris enquiring about his fitness in Thomas Frank’s post-match press conference.

“Don’t know, fingers crossed – hopefully not. Actually, literally don’t know! I haven’t asked anyone, don’t know.” – Thomas Frank on Ivan Toney

Toney seemed limp-free when, bizarrely, he appeared at the Brit Awards some hours later, but it’s something to keep an ear out for when Frank faces the media ahead of Gameweek 28.

It’s the Gameweek 29 clash with Burnley that many of us will want Toney for anyway, as Arsenal are to come before that.

He’s not really passing the eye test of late, it has to be said. But a meeting with one of the top flight’s poorest ever sides, when 12 other teams blank, is difficult to see past.

REGUILON’S THREAT

‘Not the sides they once were’ would adequately describe Saturday’s game at the Gtech Community Stadium.

We’re maybe being harsh on Brentford, judging them by their overachievement in the last two campaigns and overlooking their raft of injuries.

As mentioned above, they’re going to be in the Gameweek 29 conversation regardless of their current run of two wins in 13, especially for Free Hitters.

There’s been a weekly battle between Yoane Wissa (£5.6m) and Neal Maupay (£4.9m) to partner Toney up front, with Wissa maybe nudging ahead on Saturday. The DR Congo international was a Man of the Match contender with his movement up top, rounding off his performance with a superb bicycle kick for Brentford’s second goal.

Wissa ended up chalking up five shots to Toney’s one.

But arguably second behind Toney for Gameweek 29 appeal is Sergio Reguilon (£4.4m). He’s been on our Watchlist for weeks now but this was arguably his most attacking display yet.

Three attempts in the box were registered, one blocked effort leading to Mads Roerslev‘s (£4.4m) goal and another hitting the post. When Vitaly Janelt (£5.3m) also struck the upright, Reguilon was unmarked and a pass away from what would have been an Opta-defined ‘big chance’.

Above: Sergio Reguilon’s xG shotmap in Gameweek 27

The clean sheets might be few and far between but that attacking threat has already led to three assists in the last five matches.

PALMER, GUSTO… NOT MUCH ELSE

As for Chelsea, an EFL Cup final defeat to Liverpool’s second string and an unconvincing midweek win over Championship side Leeds United was followed up by another so-so display and more “Poch out” sentiments.

The Gameweek 25 draw with Manchester City seems increasingly like an anomaly.

They’d actually started alright at Brentford, with Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m) wasting one glorious chance before nodding the Blues in front.

But, as seems to happen quite often, they faded badly, their blushes and a point only being saved by Axel Disasi‘s (£4.9m) late header.

Their run-in is actually one of the more appealing on paper, with two Double Gameweeks still to come:

At the moment, it’s only really Cole Palmer (£5.7m) and Malo Gusto (£4.2m) who are demanding any sort of attention in FPL. Even then, Gusto may be faced with the return of positional rival Reece James (£5.3m) in the run-in.

Both players bagged assists against the Bees, with Palmer ruining a second for Gusto when shanking the defender’s cross wide.

Palmer was up front and Gusto an advanced wing-back as Pochettino switched to a 3-5-2 but it may only have been a temporary formation change.

“We needed to provide the midfield the possibility not to cover too much distance. Gallagher didn’t start against Leeds because he was very, very tired.

“Because players like Lavia was supposed to be a very good player, and of course Lesley Ugochukwu. They are injured and we don’t have the possibility to refresh players that are in a key area. That is why to help them with another centre-back.” – Mauricio Pochettino

ROBERTO ROTATION RETURNS

You may remember Brighton’s glut of Double Gameweeks towards the end of last season and the rotation that ensued.

The return of European football for the Seagulls always threatened to kickstart another round of Roberto roulette, and the Seagulls boss duly delivered on Saturday.

De Zerbi claims he was reacting to Wednesday’s cup defeat at Wolves rather than looking ahead to the UEFA Europa League tie with Roma but either way, more midweek fixtures equals more teamsheet uncertainty.

The Gameweek 28 hosting of Nottingham Forest falls in the middle of that two-legged clash with the Serie A giants, while Gameweeks 30-32 are separated by just seven days. At least one Double Gameweek is still to come later in the year, plus more continental action if they get past I Giallorossi.

With the fixtures also looking as tricky as they do (we can add a meeting with Man City to the below), there seems little reason to own Brighton players going forward.

De Zerbi made seven changes from the midweek FA Cup defeat. Even the usually secure Pascal Gross (£6.6m) and Lewis Dunk (£5.1m) saw their minutes managed, the former named as a substitute and the latter hooked before the hour mark.

“Today we changed three or four players because Pascal Gross couldn’t play 90 minutes, Lewis Dunk couldn’t play 90 minutes. Moder was injured for one and a half years. Facundo Buonanotte was born in 2004. Welbeck can’t play two games in a row in three days. Adingra played in the African Cup and after that, three games, 90 minutes per game. It’s difficult to choose the first XI.” – Roberto De Zerbi

There was an irony in Pervis Estupinan (£5.0m) escaping the carnage and starting again. He registered more touches in the final third (47) and chances created (five) than anyone on show but again left a lot to be desired defensively.

Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.1m) was used ‘out of position’ in midfield, meanwhile, with Billy Gilmour‘s (£4.9m) ban leaving Albion short.

CAMERON WHO?

Move over Cameron Archer (£4.3m), the go-to budget forward is now very much not you.

Rodrigo Muniz (£4.5m) has more goals (five) in the last five Gameweeks than Archer has all season (four).

The Fulham striker also has a fixture in Gameweek 29, when 12 other teams blank.

The threat of Armando Broja (£4.9m) might remain in the longer term but, with so much good form and credit in the bank, it’s difficult to see Muniz having such a stinker against Wolves next week that he would be rendered a rotation risk for Blank Gameweek 29.

His latest goal was a Mitrovic-esque header from a peach of a Harry Wilson (£5.3m) cross. The roles had been reversed 10 minutes earlier when Wilson latched onto a Muniz flick to score the game’s opener.

It’s not just the tangible Fantasy returns that encourage but also the underlying numbers: since his current run in the first XI started in Gameweek 23, Muniz is joint-second among forwards for goal attempts and shots in the box:

Above: Forwards sorted by shots in the last five Gameweeks

Bernd Leno (£4.8m) is now two points from the summit of the goalkeepers’ FPL points table, while Antonee Robinson (£4.5m) can’t be beaten by any other sub-£5.0m defender for Fantasy returns (clean sheets, assists and goals) in 2023/24.

They’ll fancy their chances of another clean sheet in Gameweek 28, with Wolves without their two top goalscorers.