Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.8m) was on borrowed time with some of his Fantasy Premier League (FPL) owners – but Gameweek 16’s dismissal was the final nail in the coffin for many.
A red card for two bookable offences means he’ll miss the trip to Leicester City next Saturday.
In this article, we’ll identify some of the best sub-£5.0m FPL defender replacements for the Algerian full-back.
We’ll be using data from our Premium Members Area and graphics from the industry-leading data provider StatsBomb in this piece.
REASONS FOR KEEPING
This might be a hard sales pitch…
In the interests of balance, there are two main positives: a new head coach and Ait-Nouri’s offensive threat.
No defender has more attacking returns (ARtn, below) this season.
He also ranks among the top six defenders for shots in the box and StatsBomb xG.
Then, there’s the new manager bounce.
Gary O’Neil is gone, his position pretty much untenable after turning on his players in recent interviews.
Can the new man – purportedly Vitor Pereira – hit the ground running as Oliver Glasner did at Crystal Palace last season? Pereira has been playing a wing-back system at his current club Al-Shabab, which would be a good fit for Ait-Nouri.
REASONS FOR SELLING
Over 400,000 of Ait-Nouri’s previous owners don’t need any convincing – he has been sold by that many since Saturday’s 3pm GMT deadline.
That’s over three times as many transfers out as the next most-sold player ahead of Gameweek 17.
If you’re one of the few who does require further persuading, there are some compelling reasons to offload.
Ait-Nouri will return in Gameweek 18 but Wolverhampton Wanderers’ fixture run from that point is rough:
Wolves face eight of the top 10 in Gameweeks 18-27. And even then, the other two fixtures are against sides you’d expect to finish in the upper reaches of the table: Manchester United and Newcastle United.
Then there are the alarming defensive numbers: 40 goals conceded, one clean sheet. No side has worse figures than that. It means that Ait-Nouri’s points-per-match average, despite all the goals and assists, is a miserable 2.5.
There’s even the threat of Ait-Nouri missing another game through suspension. The two bookings that led to his dismissal on Saturday do not count towards his season’s tally – so he remains on four yellow cards. If he gets booked again in Gameweek 18 or 19, there’ll be another one-match ban to serve.
As for the new manager, will the Algerian even be favoured by O’Neil’s replacement? If it’s a back four in operation, will it affect Ait-Nouri’s attacking threat? A period of watching and waiting is probably advisable, especially with the unfavourable fixtures.
BEST REPLACEMENTS FOR AIT-NOURI
ANTONEE ROBINSON
- Club: Fulham
- Price: £4.8m
Let’s start with the sideways (price-wise) move that many are doing: Ait-Nouri to Antonee Robinson (£4.8m).
The Fulham man timed his audition beautifully with a virtuoso full-back display at Anfield on Saturday, which earned massive praise from his manager and legions of those watching the game.
Two assists took him to six for the season, a total that no other FPL defender can match. Robinson is also joint-fourth among his sub-£5.0m positional peers for chances created (17).
Assists are pretty much the only attacking returns that will arrive: he’s never scored a Premier League goal. Robinson has also had just one shot in the box all season.
It’s mostly by design. Robinson stays wide and bombs on beyond Fulham’s left winger, while opposite number Kenny Tete (£4.5m) is given license to drift infield and shoot.
Tete, incidentally, is the leading sub-£5.0m defender for shots this season (18) – but hasn’t scored from any of them. He’s also now an injury doubt for Gameweek 17.
As well as the attacking potential, Fulham are one of the league’s better sides for expected goals conceded (xGC) – even if they’ve only got two clean sheets to show for it.
Joachim Andersen (£4.2m) will at least be back soon to bolster the backline.
The fixtures are the cherry on the cake. Three of the next four are very decent home matches, while struggling West Ham United and Leicester City follow after that.
NIKOLA MILENKOVIC
The rest of this article below is completely free to read but requires a Fantasy Football Scout user account for access – you can get yours at no cost here
