In his latest article, Pras – who has finished inside the top 40k in each of the last seven seasons – shares his thoughts on how to navigate a busy period in which we’ll see seven Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadlines in 31 days.
The timing for my article comes a week after fixture swings for Arsenal, Brighton and Hove Albion and Chelsea – many of whom already delivered. I won’t therefore dwell on fixtures, too much.
Instead, I will focus this month’s article on a topic that I genuinely feel is a “skill” element in the game – how to navigate the busy festive period.
It is a time when content is scarce due to tight deadlines. One small injury means potentially three to four Gameweeks out. Most tricky of all to navigate is, of course, rotation.
This time of year separates the engaged managers from the casuals. In this period, I will lay out some of my “must-dos” that I apply to my team during this period.
1. Consider teams with easier schedules
The most obvious one first. Teams that have kinder schedules are less likely to rotate. This could include not being in Europe / Carabao Cup, having more spaced-out fixtures or less travel.
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On fixture scheduling, this excellent article from Neale summarises everything well.
My takeaway from the key teams is as follows:
- Manchester City: No Carabao Cup, so one extra free midweek compared to other top teams. Also, a fun fact: they are the early kick-off in Gameweeks 17, 18, 19 and 21. There is some hope yet for Rico Lewis (£4.8m) owners to get some starting clues.
- Arsenal, whilst having no respite in midweeks, are not leaving London until January 4. Away ties against West Ham United, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Brentford all dovetail the home ties. Even their European and Carabao Cup fixtures in December are at home!
- Liverpool have a punishing schedule in Gameweeks 13-15 with the dreaded Sun-Wed-Sat games, but a kinder schedule after that over Christmas. Aston Villa follow almost exactly the same pattern.
- Teams in the UEFA Europa League/Conference League such as Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United, Chelsea do have midweek games. But by and large, I see enough minutes management not to worry too much.
- Finally, popular teams not in Europe gain in prominence. I would include Brighton, Newcastle United, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Bournemouth in this category. With the exception of Newcastle, these teams are even out of the Carabao Cup. That means another midweek rest between Gameweeks 16 and 17.
2. Focus on players with secure minutes
The last thing you want is rotation panic adding to the other headaches that pile up. What is worse is that in many cases, the good picks still come on to cameo – so a deeper bench isn’t even the solution. I strongly veer towards the side of ‘boring’ during this period, especially for positions with lower upside. Think Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m) vs Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.2m), Pervis Estupinan (£5.0m) vs Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.5m), Pedro Neto (£6.2m) vs Eberechi Eze (£6.6m), Luis Diaz (£7.6m) vs Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m) etc.
The above table presents some minutes + stats so far this season. There are of course some suspension or injury-related exceptions to the table (e.g. William Saliba (£6.0m), Joao Pedro (£5.6m), Eze, Alexander Isak (£8.5m), Jurrien Timber (£5.5m), van Hecke, Yoane Wissa (£6.1m), Ezri Konsa (£4.4m), Phil Foden (£9.1m) and Son Heung-min (£9.9m) should all probably be Tier 1 or 2) but by and large sticking to Tier 1 and/or a couple of Tier 2 is my go-to strategy.
I just don’t think there are any benefits to chasing hauls from Tier 3 picks over the busy period – unless something has changed materially (e.g. a new manager, being back in favour or injury to the competition in that position) that would make them Tier 1 or 2 picks going forward.
3. Keep an eye on the yellow card count
Speaking of minutes, keep an eye on the yellow cards. They accumulate very quickly in this period. The cut-off point is up to and including 19 matches in the Premier League.
Nicolas Jackson (£8.0m) this week reminded us that it isn’t right to completely ignore these players – but knowing where the risks are is useful in a 50-50 decision.
Some other notable players on four yellows:
- Ibrahima Konate
- Rayan Ait Nouri
- Justin Kluivert
- Daniel Munoz
- Fabian Schar
- Tyler Dibling
Some notable players on 3 yellows:
- Levi Colwill
- Diogo Dalot
- Liam Delap
- Lucas Digne
- Lewis Hall
- Dejan Kulusevski
- Morgan Rogers
- Robert Sanchez
- Jurrien Timber
- Jan Paul van Hecke
- Bart Verbruggen
4. Think about players with multiple routes to points
This is perhaps relevant at all times but with injuries or random no-shows happening more than usual in this period, I think picking players that take set-pieces and penalties becomes even more important. That’s because even in tougher fixtures, you don’t mind if they come into the XI as emergency cover – reducing the need for a desperate use of a free transfer.
Here is a list of players that fit this bill (taken from here). I have narrowed it a bit based on relevant teams and players:
There is no surprise that picks like Matheus Cunha (£6.9m), Pedro, Isak, Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Cole Palmer (£10.9m), Bukayo Saka (£10.2m), Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m) and Mbeumo have come more into our thinking. Amongst the less popular names, I think Jarrod Bowen (£7.4m) and Eze will also come into the picture soon for a similar route to points potential.
5. Plan ahead
More than at any time of the year, knowing which paths the team takes is important. New information will come quickly. And knowing whether to replace the player with a cheaper or more expensive option, or be aggressive with a free transfer vs rolling, will come down to where I am taking this team in a few Gameweeks. Am I building towards spreading the funds from the Erling Haaland (£15.1m) sale, collecting funds to upgrade my fifth midfielder or even buying an expensive defender like Trent Alexander-Arnold (£6.9m)? Have a plan and react to news with that plan in mind.
This isn’t to say plans can’t change. But having two days to think through what to do if Saka limps off again on Boxing Day is less than ideal without a basic direction of travel in mind.
6. Control those knees
We all remember that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang triple rise over December a few years ago. For some, it made sense. For others, it was just a case of ‘everyone’s buying him, maybe it makes sense for me too’. Value a free transfer more. Questioning short-term bandwagons is how I tend to play in this period. Again, exceptions apply to the rule, but those knees need to remain in check. Having a plan in mind (per the point above) also helps.
These are all I can think of for now. Do let me know in the comments what some of your tips are around this period. Maybe some new ones emerge this year, like try to roll through 3-4 transfers and go into the New Year with a bit of an advantage. We shall see.
Until then, good luck with the green arrows!
