Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Q&A ahead of Gameweek 20. The topics include Nicolas Jackson (£8.2m), replacing Matheus Cunha (£7.0m) and his favourite Newcastle United assets.
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Q: With Martin Dubravka (£4.2m), Lewis Hall (£4.8m), Anthony Gordon (£7.4m), Jacob Murphy (£5.1m) and Alexander Isak (£9.2m) all in great form, who are the best three Newcastle players to own? And after four successive clean sheets, can Dubravka keep his place when Nick Pope (£4.9m) is fit again?
(via REDLIGHTNING)
A: Newcastle have been one of the league’s best attacks over the last six Gameweeks. Only Liverpool beat them for goals (19 v 18), big chances (26 v 25) and non-penalty expected goals (NPxG, 14.82 v 14.37).
The obvious pick is Isak, as he’s contesting Cole Palmer (£11.4m) for being the game’s second-best asset after Mohamed Salah (£13.6m). Team-mate Murphy is the second highest-scoring midfielder over this period with 44 points but I still wouldn’t feel confident about investing in him. He’ll be a minutes risk after a bad performance or two.
With Isak now in most squads, it makes sense to get another piece of the Magpies’ attack and I think Gordon is the correct option. Underlying numbers are decent – despite a low 11 penalty area shots in these six Gameweeks, he’s been afforded five big chances. Salah, Noni Madueke (£6.3m) and Palmer are the sole midfielders with more. He’s also third for chances created (16) behind Palmer and Enzo Fernandez (£5.1m). However, just two were setting up big attempts.
Meanwhile, left-back Hall continues to impress, Newcastle have found a good balance in midfield with Sandro Tonali (£5.5m) acting as ‘number six’ and they’ve got the third-lowest expected goals conceded (xGC) tally during these half-dozen (5.36).
On top of this solidity, Hall is also fourth amongst defenders for recent chances created (10) and does well regarding bonus points. Going for Murphy or Dubravka will restrict you from one of the excellent Isak, Gordon and Hall trio.
In regards to the Slovakian goalkeeper, he’s doing well and I think Newcastle will therefore take their time with Pope. But once the England international returns to full fitness and sharpness, I think he re-enters their starting XI.
Q: Nicolas Jackson has some good upcoming fixtures but is he overpriced? I’m thinking of getting Chris Wood (£6.7m) or even Gabriel Jesus (£6.8m) for free. What’s your verdict?
(via MAGIC ZICO)
A: Many managers are losing patience with Jackson after his benching at Ipswich Town, which meant there have been just 16 FPL points over the last six Gameweeks.
Yet the drop in quality without the Senegalese international was visible for all to see and I don’t think Enzo Maresca will be repeating such liberties anytime soon. Gameweeks 21 and 22 see the Blues play on Tuesday, then Monday – the equivalent of a Sunday-to-Saturday turnaround.
Furthermore, there is no longer a threat of suspension now that the threshold for five yellow cards has passed. Chelsea have some great fixtures on the horizon, as trips to Manchester City, Aston Villa and Arsenal are the only ones rated above 3 on the ‘Fixture Difficulty Rating’ during the next 10 Gameweeks. Despite just one goal over the latest three occasions, the Blues last six still rank third for NPxG. So I think Jackson remains a good pick and Isak is the only forward I would definitely sell him for.
The names you mentioned – Jesus and Wood – are also good picks. I’ll come back to them later. Significantly cheaper, they make sense should you need to free up money.
Q: Anthony Gordon or Ismaila Sarr (£5.9m)?
(via @varonbawa)
A: Not only are Gordon’s numbers – mentioned earlier – impressive but Sarr’s are great as well. Sticking with the six-Gameweek statistical period, only Isak, Salah, Palmer and Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) have landed more shots on target than the Crystal Palace winger (eight). Additionally, he trails only Isak, Salah, Madueke, Jamie Vardy (£5.5m), Palmer and Ollie Watkins (£8.8m) for big chances (five).
Of course, looking at team data, Palace’s 9.35 xG is some way behind Newcastle’s 14.37. So if money isn’t an issue, I think Gordon is better but I truly think Sarr is an excellent option. Perhaps the best midfielder that’s priced under £6.0m.
Q: Is Bryan Mbeumo (£7.7m) worth reconsidering for those who have sold? On paper, Gameweek 22 against Liverpool looks like the only tough match-up. I can afford moving Antoine Semenyo (£5.6m) to him in a four-point hit.
(via @AmanTalksFPL)
A: As you mentioned, Brentford’s only ‘red’ fixture on Scout’s ‘Attack Difficulty’ Ticker is Liverpool, which is at home. Both he and the team are prolific there. But despite three goals and an assist over six Gameweeks, Mbeumo’s underlying numbers have not been great.
He has landed just six shots on target and been afforded just three big chances, both of which rank 10th amongst midfielders. Then again, Mbeumo has never been fantastic with the numbers; his appeal is about secure minutes, set pieces and taking penalties.
While the 25-year-old is a hold for current owners, I don’t think he’s a must-buy because Gordon and even Sarr or Eberechi Eze (£6.6m) seem better purchases. Still, it’s a pick that will deliver points over an extended period, you just need to tolerate a few blanks that have poor stats.
Q: Should I move Matheus Cunha to Chris Wood?
(via @zeeshan7bhimani)
A: Wolves are a low 19th on the ‘Attack Difficulty’ Ticker throughout the next 10 Gameweeks. Assuming Cunha is fit once his suspension ends, the next five opponents will be Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal, Villa and Liverpool – a daunting run. While I still expect him to occasionally get points, I think the lower ceiling makes him a sell.
Looking at similarly priced replacements, I think Wood and Jesus are the leading candidates. The Nottingham Forest asset has defied his underlying numbers this season, netting 11 times from just 20 shots on target. Over the last six Gameweeks, he’s tested the goalkeeper no more than five times. However, three of those were deemed to be big chances.
I think that penalty duties and more secure minutes put him just ahead of Jesus, for me. It depends on what kind of FPL manager you are, though. Arsenal are a more attacking team and will always have bigger potential but there may be times when Kai Havertz (£7.9m) plays as a centre-forward. Whereas Wood is a set-and-forget, more talismanic pick.
That being said, Forest have some tricky fixtures between Gameweeks 25 and 28, facing Fulham, Newcastle, Arsenal and Man City.
We discuss these questions and more on Gameweek 20’s episode of The FPL Wire. You can check it out below.
