What to do with Joao Pedro in FPL?

Joao Pedro (£5.7m) is now sporting a yellow flag after Fabian Hurzeler’s press conference on Thursday.

The Brazil international, one of the most-bought forwards of Gameweek 21, twisted his ankle in training and was all but ruled out of Brighton and Hove Albion’s FA Cup third-round tie against Norwich City.

“I would love to have him on the pitch, also in the FA Cup. But in the end, he twisted his ankle yesterday in training and we have to wait for the MRI. If we have any clear results about that then we can let you know but before, I think we have to wait for the results.” – Fabian Hurzeler on Joao Pedro

There’s now a trickle of transfers out since the 75% flag was added.

Here are our own thoughts on what to do with the Brazilian.

WAIT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT…

For starters, the recommendation would be to wait until Saturday evening before doing anything.

You shouldn’t miss out on any price rises for potential targets overnight, according to Ragabolly’s very reliable price predictor. Pedro himself is some distance from dropping.

We say Saturday evening because that’s when we should hear again from Fabian Hurzeler.

The Albion boss will be facing the media in the aftermath of his side’s cup clash with Norwich.

He may, at that point, give an update on Pedro’s MRI scan. As well as his post-match presser, he should have television interviews to conduct – so we can hope that at least one of the reporters present enquires about the Brazilian’s condition.

We’ll bring you an update when we can in our FA Cup Scout Notes.

…AND AGAIN UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING IF POSSIBLE

If Hurzeler is non-committal or no one asks about Pedro’s fitness, then the next hope we have is an update in the Seagulls head coach’s pre-Gameweek 21 press conference.

However, there’s a big problem with that.

Brighton are in Gameweek 21 action on Thursday, so there’s a very good chance that Hurzeler doesn’t face the media until Wednesday – a day after the FPL deadline passes.

This happened back in Gameweek 14, indeed.

There is still a slim chance that Hurzeler will fulfil his media commitments a day earlier. We’ll know for certain when Sky Sports lists the day’s press conferences on Tuesday morning. Again, we’ll keep you posted on that front.

That’s obviously leaving it late to decide whether to keep Pedro or find a replacement.

There may be price rises in that time, too, although Ragabolly’s algorithm suggests that not many forwards are close to doing so at present.

WAIT UNTIL THE FA CUP ACTION BEFORE DECIDING ON A REPLACEMENT

It’s not just Pedro updates that are worth waiting for.

Most of the potential replacements for the Brighton forward have an FA Cup tie to come before Gameweek 21 – and so could pick up injuries themselves.

At the time of writing, Fulham and Everton are the only two sides to have fulfilled their cup commitments. Both did so on Thursday night.

CONSIDER HOLDING IF IT’S A SHORT-TERM INJURY

If Pedro is only going to be out a week or two, then consider holding the Brazil international.

This goes especially so if you are operating with an eight-man attack (ie no bench fodder) and can perhaps muddle through with another midfielder or forward in the interim. This author would likely have benched Chris Wood (£6.8m) in Gameweek 21 had Pedro been fit, for instance – and he’s not a bad understudy to have, especially with Liverpool leakier of late.

Why hold Pedro? Simply because there are few alternatives in the sub-£6.0m bracket who can match him. No forward in this price range, indeed, can better his 5.4 points-per-match average.

He’s typically guaranteed good minutes: he started every single league game since the November international break, one of only two sub-£6.0m forwards to do so. The other was Iliman Ndiaye (£5.4m).

Pedro is also on penalties, as evidenced by his spot-kick in the win over Arsenal last weekend.

Favourable fixtures against a Dyche-less Everton and Southampton are on the horizon. Gameweek 25 opponents Chelsea have kept just two clean sheets in 15 matches.

It all, of course, depends on the length of absence.

HAVE A REPLACEMENT IN MIND

Whilst leaving it as late as possible to decide on Pedro’s fate isn’t a bad idea, it’s also advisable to have a contingency plan in mind for Tuesday.

There aren’t too many stand-out candidates to replace him. Bournemouth pair Evanilson (£5.9m) and Enes Unal (£5.4m) are out. Jhon Duran (£5.8m) could face a further suspension. Danny Welbeck (£5.5m) is nearly fit but, after quite a while out, you can’t imagine Hurzeler playing him Thursday-Sunday in Gameweek 21 and 22 even if he is ready.

Raul Jimenez (£5.7m) is probably leading the charge – and is another to tick the penalty-taking box. He’s already played his FA Cup third-round fixture, so we’re not expecting any fitness scares to emerge.

What would really, really help is an injury to Rodrigo Muniz (£5.5m). Jimenez’s positional rival came off at half-time of Thursday’s cup win over Watford with a back problem. Marco Silva described it as a ‘small issue’; we should learn more about that from the Fulham boss on Monday.

An absence of a few weeks for Muniz would pretty much ensure Jimenez gets a favourable run of West Ham (a), Leicester (a) and Man Utd (h). If not, there’s going to be the usual week-to-week uncertainty over Jimenez’s minutes, with Muniz lurking and among the goals.

Above: Sub-£6.0m forwards sorted by minutes per expected goal involvement (xGI)

Liam Delap (£5.6m) and Jamie Vardy (£5.5m) are a bit like Pedro: regular starters up top, on penalties, and making the most of relatively few chances.

Each of their minutes-per-shot averages are over 40.0, which is poor for a forward.

But all of them have scored with over 20% of their shots this season, helped of course by those spot-kicks.

Vardy and Delap both average 4.2 points per game.

The upcoming fixtures are a mixed bag but are there many defences to fear these days? Man City and Spurs may show up as tricky tests on the ticker but neither has convinced at the rear for some time.

If you’ve got a bit of extra cash knocking about, then Yoane Wissa (£6.2m) arguably tops the lot. He bests all of the above for goals scored (10), xG (8.3) and big chances (17) this season, despite not being on penalties.

His Brentford team also play with a lot more attacking swagger than Ipswich and Leicester.

Again, not outstanding short-term fixtures on paper, but the Bees’ Gameweek 24-26 opponents are in the bottom five for xGC this season. Man City have also looked suspect in defence for months now.

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