This latest Tales of the Expected article explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six Gameweeks.
We will assess each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We’ll also look at the leading players in each position for expected goal involvement (xGI).
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TEAMS
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS (xG) – LAST SIX GAMEWEEKS
| Team | xG | Goals | xG delta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 15.90 | 16 | +0.10 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 12.42 | 9 | -3.42 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 11.72 | 18 | +6.28 |
| 4 | Brentford | 11.40 | 10 | -1.40 |
| 5 | Newcastle United | 11.03 | 12 | +0.97 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 10.55 | 14 | +3.45 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest | 10.37 | 16 | +5.63 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace | 9.93 | 10 | +0.07 |
| 9 | Fulham | 9.68 | 10 | +0.32 |
| 10 | Manchester United | 8.22 | 7 | -1.22 |
| 11 | Everton | 8.00 | 8 | 0.00 |
| 12 | Arsenal | 7.56 | 14 | +6.44 |
| 13 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 7.17 | 8 | +0.83 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7.12 | 5 | -2.12 |
| 15 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6.99 | 9 | +2.01 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6.89 | 8 | +1.11 |
| 17 | Ipswich Town | 6.36 | 6 | -0.36 |
| 18 | Leicester City | 5.77 | 3 | -2.77 |
| 19 | West Ham United | 5.50 | 6 | +0.50 |
| 20 | Southampton | 5.33 | 7 | +1.67 |
No team has generated higher-value opportunities than Liverpool in our six-game sample, with 15.9 xG.
Having sliced through Bournemouth’s press on Saturday (2.52 xG), Arne Slot’s side are exceeding expectations at both ends of the pitch in his first season in charge.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have been the most wasteful team, with only nine goals from 12.42 xG.
Enzo Maresca’s side have fallen short of their xG in five of their last six matches, with performances often let down by sub-standard finishing.
Chelsea had 20 shots against Ipswich Town in Gameweek 19, for example, their most attempts without scoring in a Premier League away match since December 2017.
It’s impacting Cole Palmer (£11.3m), who has not registered an Opta assist since Gameweek 13. That’s despite racking up 32 key passes, the most of any player in the division, in the 11 games since.
For context, Antonee Robinson (£5.1m) has seven Opta assists in that same timeframe despite creating far fewer chances (22).
As for Manchester City, they have shown great efficiency, with 18 goals from 11.72 xG.
Brentford and Bournemouth were rated as having the 16th and 19th hardest set of fixtures respectively, at least according to our Season Ticker, but they have both carried a serious threat.
In Bournemouth’s case, what makes it even more remarkable is head coach Andoni Iraola has been without both recognised centre-forwards, Evanilson (£5.6m) and Enes Unal (£5.4m).
It’s also worth pointing out that six of the Cherries’ next seven opponents rank in the bottom eight of the above table, boosting the appeal of defenders Milos Kerkez (£4.9m) and Dean Huijsen (£4.4m).
David Moyes’ return to Everton has not only delivered positivity but also helped cure their attacking woes. In his four games in charge, the Toffees’ are averaging 1.6 xG per match, a significant increase on Sean Dyche’s rate of 0.96.
Arsenal’s attack fell flat in the EFL Cup at St James’ Park on Wednesday, managing an xG of just 0.94. It continues concerns over their creativity without Bukayo Saka (£10.2m), and surely that level of overperformance (14 goals from 7.56 xG) is going to be difficult to maintain.
As for Southampton, their xG difference stands at -11.4 during the last six matches, a huge concern for Ivan Juric with high-flying Bournemouth up next.
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (xGC) – LAST SIX GAMEWEEKS
