Every Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager knows that player price changes are an important part of the game.
Given every increase or decrease can impact your selling price and profit, £0.1m is often the difference between being able to make your dream moves or not.
As more and more managers sign up to play the game and these price changes become increasingly volatile, it’s therefore important to try and stay on top of who’s rising and falling, and when, to avoid being priced out.
Thankfully, there are plenty of sites out there that do the heavy lifting in terms of predicting these price changes events (which happen daily at 1:30am GMT), including LiveFPL.net.
LiveFPL’s price change predictor can be filtered by team, searched for specific players, and sorted by a player’s percentage progress (overall and by hour) towards a price rise or drop, as well as their percentage likelihood of changing price within a certain timeframe.
As well as further detail on how FPL price changes work and the areas of uncertainty involved in predictions, the page also gives a summary of the top transfers in and out each day, as well as a Summary of Predictions – which we’ve outlined below.
13 February 2024
Predicted risers
According to LiveFPL’s predictions, a Gameweek 24 haul means Morgan Gibbs-White (£6.4m) should rise tonight.
The Nottingham Forest playmaker aside, LiveFPL are expecting no other FPL price rises tonight.
After MGW, Morgan Rogers (£5.6m) could be next in line for an upcoming price change ahead of Aston Villa’s Double Gameweek 25, according to LiveFPL.
Predicted fallers
On the other hand, there’s expected to be at least four players falling in price tonight.
Ismaïla Sarr (£5.7m) is one of them.
Crystal Palace have found a relatively strong vein of form lately, but the Senegalese hasn’t joined in on the action much output-wise, registering just one assist since Gameweek 17.
Also at risk of losing £0.1m off their current price tonight are Brighton’s Carlos Baleba (£5.0m), Newcastle defender Fabian Schär (£5.4m) and West Ham’s Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£4.5m).
Kevin De Bruyne (£9.4m), Son Heung-min (£9.8m) – despite the South Korean registering two assists in his side’s Gameweek 24 win over Brentford – and Gabriel Jesus (£6.6m) are also seriously at risk.
Matt Targett (£4.0m), Nelson Semedo (£4.5m), Pedro Neto (£6.2m), Dominic Solanke (£7.4m) and Ben White (£6.1m) will be ‘close’.
Just like price rises, price drops are, in principle, caused by the number of transfers in or out in relation to certain thresholds and the player’s overall ownership in FPL. Actual performances on the pitch, as well as injuries and being out of favour, influence those transfers ins/out.
It’s no real surprise then why some of the above names are on the chopping block. For example, Baleba just missed out on Brighton’s starting XI for the first time since Gameweek 13, and Schär’s clean sheets have dried up ahead of a tough upcoming fixture run.
KDB largely looks a shadow of his former self these days and Wan-Bissaka handed his owners negative points in Gameweek 24 thanks to an own goal in West Ham’s loss to Chelsea. Jesus, Solanke, White and Targett are all injured or out of favour.
Like Son, Neto and Semedo may have the right to feel aggrieved by their imminent price drops, given they scored and registered a clean sheet, respectively, in Gameweek 24.