Cole Palmer: A lesser goal threat, wasteful or just unlucky?

Entering Gameweek 27 with one attacking return – an assist – in five matches, over 1.4 million Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers still chose to captain Cole Palmer (£11.1m) over Mohamed Salah (£13.8m).

The logic of targeting Southampton was justified by Chelsea’s convincing 4-0 win, though the England international, incredibly, found a way to blank.

At least captainers could emerge from behind their sofas feeling pleased that Salah ‘only’ grabbed an assist the next night. But the frustration with Palmer continues to the extent that he’s the second most-sold player since Tuesday’s deadline.

Using statistics and the eye test, can we determine whether he’s losing goal threat or simply having an unlucky spell?

SEASON SO FAR

2023/24’s highest FPL scorer with 244 points, Palmer remains second only to Salah this time. The first of his eight double-digit hauls came in Gameweek 2, bagging a goal and three assists at Wolverhampton Wanderers.

In Gameweek 6, his four goals versus Brighton and Hove Albion brought a 25-point tally that is still the season’s highest from any individual match.

Further joy came to vice-captainers in Gameweek 15 when Salah’s trip to Everton was postponed, allowing many armbands to shift onto Palmer for his 18 points at Tottenham.

The Blues’ penalty-taker had collected 14 goals and seven assists by the end of Gameweek 21 but the subsequent decline hasn’t stopped this 22-year-old from being the league leader for chances created (69) and joint-second for attempts (97).

It means he pips Salah to first place for shot activity (166 v 164).

Third for both expected goal involvement (xGI, 21.30) and putting efforts on target (39), Palmer has multiple routes to points. He’s taken the fourth-most corners (70) and second-most shots from set plays (22).

HIS DRY SPELL

“In this moment, Cole struggles to score or struggles to do the right thing, but he’s happy, he knows exactly that it’s something normal. He’s also lucky because Cole, even if he’s young, he shares time in a big club with the big players, and he knows that all the big players, they go through moments like this.

“It’s how you react, and he’s reacting perfect. He’s laughing, he’s happy, he has to enjoy football, and for sure, we don’t have any doubt, he’s going to score more goals.” – Enzo Maresca

As Palmer’s poor form began six matches ago, let’s do similar to the above table by comparing his numbers to everyone else’s last six. Although low on chances created (nine), only Matheus Cunha (£7.0m) has taken more attempts (23).

Add these together, his combined 32 is bettered by merely two others – Cunha and Eberechi Eze (£6.7m).

With recent non-featuring absentees like Kai Havertz (£7.8m) and Amad Diallo (£5.4m) removed, Palmer is third for non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI, 3.66).

THE EYE TEST

And it’s important to mention spot kicks because he converted nine last season but hasn’t had any in 12 matches. The likes of Salah, Alexander Isak (£9.5m), Bryan Mbeumo (£8.0m) and Chris Wood (£7.2m) have.

When looking at context as well as numerical data, it’s remarkable that Palmer only has one attacking return in six.

Against Wolverhampton Wanderers in Gameweek 22, he was robbed of a free-kick assist because Noni Madueke (£6.1m) needlessly stood on the line and stole Trevoh Chalobah‘s (£4.4m) headed goal.

Next up was former club Manchester City, where Palmer squared the ball for Nicolas Jackson (£7.7m) to tap in. Slightly overhit, his team-mate opted not to shoot.

Gameweek 24 brought his sole assist – a shot that was deflected past his own goalkeeper by defender Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£4.4m). Palmer would’ve placed his free-kick into the very top corner were it not for a spectacular Alphonse Areola (£4.2m) save.

Recently at Aston Villa, he was clean through on goal. The goalkeeper stumbled but, unfortunately, so did he, losing a valuable second.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s meeting with Southampton was staggering to watch. Seven shots included a central one-on-one and several easy chances. But his 1.30 xG counted for nothing.

ROLLING SIX-MATCH AVERAGE