Kicking off our Gameweek 29 Scout Notes, it’s Manchester City 2-2 Brighton and Hove Albion.
Another match unbeaten for the Seagulls, while more dropped points for Pep Guardiola’s side.
TWO CLUBS MOVING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS
The fact that Fabian Hurzeler said it was “disappointing” that Brighton didn’t emerge with a win from this contest pretty much summed up where both clubs are right now.
The Seagulls are on an upward trajectory, with a young, hungry, savvily assembled squad. City, however, have gone a bit stale. Injuries have badly impacted their campaign but so too has umpteen of the regulars having off-seasons. Phil Foden (£9.2m), benched here, has epitomised this.
City are not a bad team, of course, just nowhere near as dominant as 2023/24. The once-standard steamrollering performances have been in short supply.
Here, Brighton could and should have won it.
The xG race chart below shows the game pretty much level, although Erling Haaland‘s (£14.8m) early penalty accounted for a big percentage of City’s expected goals.
City can rightly argue that, had Savinho (£6.2m) taken two first-chances when racing into the Brighton area, the game might have panned out differently.
But after the visitors had pegged Pep Guardiola’s side back to 2-2 through a Pervis Estupinan (£4.9m) free-kick and an Abdukodir Khusanov (£5.0m) own-goal, they were the much likelier winners.
Throughout the game there were Brighton chances, and good ones at that. Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) and Jack Hinshelwood (£4.9m) both spurned opportunities from inside the six-yard box. Joao Pedro (£5.6m) fired wide from inside the area. Carlos Baleba (£5.0m) blazed over a glorious opening in the 82nd minute. One huge chance not even included in the xG chart was the tap-in that Yankuba Minteh (£5.0m) missed when the ball travelled through his legs.
As much as City’s powers have waned, it’s Leicester City next. Despite being a ragtag bunch with a patched-up defence, no holding midfielder and wingers with inconsistent end product, they should still dismantle the Foxes.
Whether they can do the same against improving sides like Crystal Palace and Everton is more of a debate.
MARMOUSH THE BRIGHT SPARK
City did begin to address the decay by adding £170m of talent in the winter window.
Omar Marmoush (£7.3m) has been the pick of the acquisitions so far and he made a difference on Saturday. Reinstated to the starting XI after last week’s tactical benching, he buzzed around when others looked like they were running through treacle.
Winning the penalty that Haaland converted, he then put City in front for a second time with a superb strike from distance.
Playing off the Norwegian but frequently running beyond him, Marmoush picks up some excellent positions. The signature Marmoush move is his bending run in behind an opposition high line, something he nearly timed to perfection in the second half when narrowly caught offside.
You’re always questioning his game-time in a way you aren’t with Haaland, of course. Will Pep Guardiola put Foden and/or Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m) back in against Leicester given that the Foxes have adopted a new five-man backline and there’ll be, in theory, a lower block to bypass?
Elsewhere, Jeremy Doku (£6.2m) was his usual self, looking utterly brilliant until it came time to deliver the final ball. He has now started the last four league matches out wide, Savinho the last six.
It was a fifth successive match without a shot for Josko Gvardiol (£6.0m), meanwhile. An inverting full-back on the other flank doesn’t do him any favours, especially when there’s a need for him to be more disciplined as a third centre-half.
All it will take is a small tactical tweak from Guardiola, of course, to unleash the beast once more.
EDERSON + BERNARDO INJURY UPDATES
Stefan Ortega (£5.2m) was between the posts on Saturday, with Ederson (£5.3m) absent. The goalkeeper had pulled out of the Brazil squad the day before.
“He had something abdominal. Niggles. He had a problem at Forest. I hope [he will be back after international break].” – Pep Guardiola on Ederson
Meanwhile, there was the curious sight of Bernardo Silva (£6.1m) coming on as a substitute and swiftly going off again.
The slow hobble around the touchline suggested it was an injury, something Guardiola later confirmed.
“If he goes out it’s because he doesn’t feel good but hopefully it will not be so dangerous.” – Pep Guardiola on Bernardo Silva
Brighton have their own pair of fresh issues: Tariq Lamptey (£4.4m) and Solly March (£6.5m).
“Tariq has a bigger issue (than March). He had a bad moment in the training session, and I can’t say exactly how long he will be out.
“Solly is just a small issue. I think he will be back after the international break.” – Fabian Hurzeler
2 months, 4 days agoI don’t see any value in City prospects right now.
Marmoush isn’t guaranteed starts, Haaland is way overpriced and Gvardiol is an expensive 2 point merchant.
Not for me, I’m afraid.