This latest Tales of the Expected article explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches.
We will assess each team from an attacking and defensive perspective and highlight the leading players in each position for expected goal involvement (xGI).
Only subscribers can read the full article. Those wishing to sign up to our site and continue reading, and see a list of the benefits that Membership brings, can do so by clicking here.
TEAMS
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS (xG) – LAST SIX MATCHES
CRYSTAL PALACE
Palace’s solid defensive structure tends to make most of the headlines, but they have also had one of the best attacks in the division in recent weeks.
In fact, no team has generated higher-value opportunities than Oliver Glasner’s side in our six-match sample, with 14.26 xG.
The Eagles are a team who thrive in transition, with only Liverpool and Chelsea registering more counter-attack shots in 2024/25. It’s a particularly relevant stat with Southampton up next, who have conceded the most goal attempts from such situations (see below).
Gameweek 32 opponents Manchester City and Newcastle United also feature in the bottom half:
BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION
Since losing 7-0 to Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 24, Brighton have improved significantly.
Peaking at just the right time, Fabian Hurzeler’s side have four wins from their last five matches, as well as a superb 2-2 draw at Manchester City last time out.
Brighton have shut out Chelsea and Southampton in that timeframe, but it’s at the other end of the pitch they’ve truly excelled, having accumulated more than 2.0 xG against Man City, Bournemouth and Southampton.
A potential issue for FPL managers is that the goals have been spread out, with eight different players on the scoresheet in the last six matches:
ARSENAL
Arsenal, however, are still languishing in the bottom half of the xG table.
The Gunners have scored nine goals in their past six Premier League games, but they have only created marginally better chances, at least in terms of quality, as Ipswich Town.
It must be pointed out that they scored five of their nine goals in one match against Man City, too.
Furthermore, there has been a drop-off in set-piece threat, with just one goal from a set-piece situation in our six-match sample.
Fortunately, their defence is on track to have the Premier League’s best defensive record for the second season running, having conceded just three goals in their last six games (see below).
OTHER TAKEAWAYS
- Where would Manchester United be without talisman Bruno Fernandes (£8.6m)? He’s been directly involved in seven of United’s nine goals in our sample, thanks to three goals and four assists.
- West Ham United have tightened up under Graham Potter, but he needs to find a better balance between defence and offence, with the attack suffering since his appointment in January. Indeed, they’ve created just 5.98 xG in their last six matches.
- Leicester City are barely putting up a fight in their attempt to avoid relegation. They have failed to score in each of their last six matches, creating just 2.58 xG. They travel to the Etihad Stadium in Gameweek 30.
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (xGC) – LAST SIX MATCHES
