Spot the Differential
19 April 2025 618 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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Gameweek 33 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us but there’s still time to pick out three more differentials.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Manchester City, Aston Villa and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

To qualify, the player should have an ownership of 5% or less.

We’ve slightly bent the rules this time on Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m), who was owned by under 4% of managers when we earmarked out differentials earlier this week but who has attracted nearly 400,000 transfers in since.

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

­­­FPL Gameweek 15 differentials: De Bruyne, Paqueta + Enzo 3

  • FPL ownership: 8.3%
  • Price: £9.3m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: eve + AVL | – | WOL

Given that he’s not in the Scout Picks, it felt remiss not to cover De Bruyne in some capacity this week.

Be it sentimentality or just desperation to tap into the City attack ahead of their Double Gameweek 33, the veteran Belgian is back in vogue.

The third-most-bought midfielder of the upcoming Gameweek, he’s more than doubled his ownership in the process.

De Bruyne was sublime in Gameweek 32, securing a 12-point haul in Manchester City’s 5-2 win over Crystal Palace.

He topped both the shot and key pass tables in that match, too:

Speaking after his starring role, the City stalwart said he was pain-free for the first time in a long time.

“It’s been a hard year. You know, having a hernia wasn’t fun but I think now I would say I’m basically pain-free for the last six weeks and that’s a massive difference playing with pain or no pain. It was hard but now I feel free, I’m able to do a lot of training sessions and I feel I can do a good job.” – Kevin De Bruyne

Currently, he’s operating in a roaming ‘false nine’ capacity – possibly to limit the amount of hard yards he has to put in, something he would be doing in a more orthodox central midfield role. The two wingers on either side of him are playing narrower and running beyond him:

There are two schools of thought.

One, that Guardiola is going to get as much out of De Bruyne as he can before the Belgian departs in the summer and give him a fitting, prominent farewell.

Or, the 33-year-old playmaker is just another pawn on Guardiola’s moving chessboard. The slippery City boss could go back to ‘wide wingers’ and an orthodox striker at the drop of a hat and/or merely manage his veteran midfielder’s minutes.

We can’t even guarantee two starts in Gameweek 33 (a start and a substitute appearance would be our best guess) but that may well be the case for most City attackers and indeed a lot of the Villa and Arsenal midfielders.

At least we know that when De Bruyne gets on the grass, he’s capable of the special.

YOURI TIELEMANS

­­­FPL Gameweek 6 differentials: Tavernier, Savinho + Tielemans 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: NEW + mci | – | FUL

The ‘undroppable’ status of Morgan Rogers (£5.7m) has been widely discussed in recent weeks but there is another Aston Villa midfielder who has logged even more minutes than the England international in 2024/25.

Youri Tielemans (£5.5m) is the only Villan to start all 32 league matches for his club, completing 90 minutes on 25 of those occasions.

Unai Emery discussed both players’ durability last weekend.

“Some players are showing us their consistency, playing minutes and recovering. It is not easy to play at the level we demand in matches in a row without being injured.

“Youri and Morgan, they are being very important and consistent. I am always analysing if we can take some minutes to rest them, but until now they are being consistent and playing the demands we need.” – Unai Emery

Minutes aside, Tielemans is not the most glamorous of picks. He’s never managed more than 10 attacking returns in a single season, and is currently on eight for 2024/25.

Two of those have arrived in the last two Gameweeks, at least.

Tielemans’ recent underlying numbers haven’t been bad, either. Over the last six Gameweeks, he’s Villa’s leading chance creator (CC, below) and joint-second for shots (Tot, below):

differentials Gameweek 33

With Gameweek 33 opponents Newcastle United and Manchester City possessing two of the higher, more aggressive defensive lines in the division, Tielemans could find ample space in behind for his superb through-balls from central midfield.

differentials Gameweek 33

The Belgian is also on a share of set plays.

RYAN SESSEGNON

  • FPL ownership: 0.6%
  • Price: £4.1m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: CHE | sou | avl

Ryan Sessegnon (£4.1m) might be a pick that some FPL managers will want to hold fire on, with the really good stuff – Southampton (a) – not until next weekend. He could enter the Gameweek 34 Free Hit conversation in particular.

If you’re going early on the budget Fantasy defender, Chelsea aren’t exactly formidable foes right now. After nearly losing to Championship-bound Ipswich Town, the Blues fell to a 2-1 loss at home to Legia Warsaw on Thursday.

Enzo Maresca’s side are also winless in their last eight Premier League matches on the road.

differentials Gameweek 33

Above: Chelsea are bottom of the eight-match away form table

The Cottagers even turned over their neighbours at Stamford Bridge in December, winning 2-1.

Why Sessegnon? If you’ve not watched Fulham in the last few weeks, you may have missed the former Tottenham Hotspur defender playing ‘out of position’ on the right wing.

differentials Gameweek 33

After successive returns off the bench in Gameweeks 29 and 30, Sessegnon was rewarded with a start in the last home match against Liverpool and turned in a superb showing, scoring for the third time in five matches.

He unsurprisingly kept his place on Monday at Bournemouth. Don’t be spooked by his early withdrawal: that turned out to be a touchline admin error, something that sent Marco Silva apoplectic.

Those two starts have brought six shots in the box, a Fulham high over that period:

differentials Gameweek 33

Sessegnon has also had more than twice as many penalty area touches (16) as any teammate in the last two Gameweeks.

There’s obvious risk involved with Fulham well stocked with wingers but Sessegnon seems to hold the upper hand for now.



618 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. aapoman
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Palmer to KDB or Saka? My rank is trash so tempted to go TC KDB and hope for vintage performances

    1. Fifa las vegas
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Might as well if chasing upside that way.

      1. Fifa las vegas
        • 13 Years
        1 year, 3 days ago

        And that thought has sort of swayed me toward taking the plunge on KdB too

      2. aapoman
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 3 days ago

        Other realistic option is TC Marmoush who I already have.

        1. Fifa las vegas
          • 13 Years
          1 year, 3 days ago

          Ya I don’t have TC but already have Marmoush. If I knew KdB starts this first game I’ll probably do it though.

  2. Bill Car
    • 15 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Timber or Kiwior?

    1. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Kiwior

  3. BlzE_94
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Bench boost team gtg?

    Raya
    Saliba Gvardiol Munoz
    Salah KDB Saka Rogers Sarr
    Marmoush Mateta

    Martinez Konsa Isak Livramento

    1. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Yeah, that's a great team.

    2. GC123
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Mental team. Your team value must be obscene. I can’t get to KDB. I mean it’s not even close

  4. Lallana_
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Glasner gang, ready for our 2pter again?

  5. Buck The Trent
    • 14 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    If you have to pick one ?

    A Digne
    B Cast

    A is on some set pieces but has an able deputy in Maatsen

  6. Football99
    • 1 Year
    1 year, 3 days ago

    1) saka or marmoush for captain?
    2) Mbuemo or elanga out for another arsenal mid? But which arsenal mid?

    1. Punned It
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 3 days ago

      I'm on Saka. I'm not sure anyone's a great pic, but I'm thinking Merino. But Mbuemo amd Elanga could be good differentials, and you can't be too certain about minutes for almost any Arsenal player.

  7. Yordan Letchkov
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Need help!

    2FT, 2.7itb / BB33; FH34

    Raya Martinez
    Saliba Gvardiol Munoz Wan-B Livra
    Salah Saka Rogers Sarr Murphy
    Isak Mateta Marmoush

    A) Livra and Murphy to Bowen and Bradley
    B) Livra and Murphy to DIas and Rashford
    C) anything else?

    Any recommendation is highly appreciated!

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Id roll

  8. Will
    • 15 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    My big decision is

    A. Sarr (x2) Rogers (x2) Agbadou
    or
    B. Rogers (x2) Murphy Burn

    On BB. Free hitting next week so one week punt. Likely doing A for more doublers and to punish Sarr sellers. Agbadou just for value but likely also facing a youth team this week.

  9. Sid07
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    how many minutes savinho is expected to play

    1. Lallana_
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      69

      1. FF Dirtbag
        • 14 Years
        1 year, 3 days ago

        More like 59

    2. GC123
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      100 maybe. I’m selling for Rogers. Not prepared to play Pep roulette. Could come back to bite me but he hasn’t featured much last 2 GW’s

      1. Sid07
        • 11 Years
        1 year, 3 days ago

        thinking to sell him for rogers as well

        would you do murphy to rashford/bowen for hit?

        1. GC123
          • 4 Years
          1 year, 3 days ago

          Not for a -4 mate, no. Murphy is bang in form and could match those two doublers. I’d save the 4 points personally

          1. Sid07
            • 11 Years
            1 year, 3 days ago

            thanks
            savinho to rogers it is

  10. AnfieldLad
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Raya Martinez
    Gabriel Gvardiol Munoz Livra Konsa
    Salah Murphy Saka Rashford Sarr
    Marmoush Mateta Isak
    3FT 0.5ITB

    Playing BB

    thinking :

    Gabriel Saka Isak -> Kiwior KDB Wissa ?

    Yay or nay ?

  11. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Who do you consider best mid picks until end of season?
    Not the premium ones.

    1. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Mbeumo, Bowen, Rogers

    2. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Ignoring fixtures and picking on form it's Barnes, Murphy, Diaz and Rogers.

    3. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 15 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      I think Elanga will be a good pick based on fixtures and something to play for!

  12. Zenith UK
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    I was debating Kerkez & Williams > Kiwior and Wan-Bissaka but AWB is now flagged…

    Saliba & Scarles instead?

    On bench boost.

  13. dapluto
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Murphy and cucurella to Kdb and Kilman. -4
    Or
    Murphy and cucurella to Bowen and kiwilior. -4
    Or just Murphy to bowen

    1. dapluto
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Thank you in advance btw
      Probably worth.mentioning I am chasing a leader and I am 40 pts behind

  14. FF Dirtbag
    • 14 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Rashford or Eze?

  15. Hooky
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Does Kiwior have any attacking threat at corners or is he one of the blockers? Saliba used to be a blocker when Gabriel was playing but don't know if that's changed and he's now attacking the ball?

    1. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      I am also interested in this.

  16. Skout
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    A) Livra to Bradley
    B) Livra to VVD (can afford but not sure I’d want him sitting on bench past this week?
    C) Isak to Watkins

    Raya
    Gvardiol Munoz Kiwior
    Salah Savinho Sarr Saka Rogers
    Marmoush Mateta

    Areola Isak Konsa Livra
    BB33, FH34, 2.7itb, 1FT

  17. Netters2018
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Got 10 dgw with 1ft, on BB, is that enough or risk one more? How many has everyone else looking at?

    Raya,
    Saliba Gvardiol Konsa
    Saka Savinho Rogers Salah

    Bench Boost - Henderson, Milenkovic, Livramento, Isak.

    Worth getting in 1 more villa?
    A) Isak for Watkins?l
    B) Livra for Torres?
    C) Bank FT

    Marmoush Mateta

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      C

  18. the dom 1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Would you do this move for a -4? Using BB Chip this DGW too!

    Merino > Saka ???

    Y or N

    Think Saka will out score him but its a game of chances isn't it lol

  19. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Best Livra replacement here? Budget 4.9m.

    Raya Areola
    Saliba gvardiol Munoz Bradley Livra

    1. the thinking one
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      I‘m considering N. Williams. Good fixtures till end of season

  20. the thinking one
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Who scores better:

    A) Livramiento (avl)
    B) N. Williams (tot)

    1. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      A

      1. Q
        • 14 Years
        1 year, 3 days ago

        Probably the same

    2. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      B

  21. Pornchef
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    1. Saka +de Byrne
    2. Saka + Bowen
    3. Salah + Bowen
    4. Salah + de Byrne

    I am pretty much level at the top of my mini league rival has Salah+Diaz

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      4

    2. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      4

  22. outernational
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    If money no object, who is best. Are either rotation risks until the end of the season?

    A: Saliba
    B: Kiwior

    1. Shultan
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      A if money no worries

      1. Q
        • 14 Years
        1 year, 3 days ago

        A

    2. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      A

  23. Shultan
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Foden to KDB or Rashford (for free)

    Murphy > Rogers
    Gabriel > kiwior done

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      KDB

  24. jonnybhoy
    • 13 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    What to do? I've got 1FT + 1.8M ITB

    Raya
    Gvardiol Gabriel** Munoz
    Salah Saka (C) Sarr Savinho Rogers
    Mateta Marmoush

    Areola Isak Livramento Williams

    A) Gabriel to Saliba BB33
    B) Savinho and Gabriel to Kiwior and KDB -4pts BB33
    C) Something else

  25. Q
    • 14 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Would you bench boost this lot? Seems a bit meh..

    Areola, isak, disasi, Munoz

    1. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Yes

    2. Fifa las vegas
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Likely similar to what mine will be.
      Areola, Isak/Palmer, Kerkez, Burn

      Don’t think I will be, will save for maybe the final GW for a bit of fun

  26. Reddonkeyham 42
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    After a poor BB last week, my FH is currently;
    Raya
    Saliba, Gvaridiol, Munoz
    Saka, KDB, Salah, Sarr, Rogers
    Maeta, Marmoush

    Who do I captain leaning KDB in hoping for a huge haul and bit of a differential

    1. shredder
      • 15 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      same team here except I've Bowen instead of Sarr
      Going Salah capt myself, was either him or KDB

  27. darlo1883
    • 14 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Raya Martinez
    Gvardiol Saliba Munoz Burn Kerkez
    Salah Saka Sarr Rogers Murphy
    Isak Mateta Marmoush

    Captain?

    1.Saka
    2.Marmoush
    3.Salah

    BB yes or no????

  28. FFLNeanderthal
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Last minute updates to below to get more DGW players? 2FT 2.7 ITB

    Raya
    Timber gvardiol munoz
    Salah saka sarr rogers
    Isak marmoush mateta

    Subs: Areola burn dunk Murphy

    Who should come out / come in?

    1. FFLNeanderthal
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Dunk > Rubén?
      Areola > Martinez?

  29. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Just Palmer -> SAKA (TC)? Plan was to BB but Ederson has stuffed that up.

    RAYA
    SALIBA, GVARDIOL, MUNOZ
    ROGERS, SARR, Palmer, Salah
    MARMOUSH, MATETA, Isak

    EDERSON, Murphy, Livra, Williams
    Bank 0.2m, 1FT, BB. TC, FH left

    1. Al Pacho
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      Same here. In the dilemma of who to TC. I’m going for Saka

  30. FF Dirtbag
    • 14 Years
    1 year, 3 days ago

    Savinho and Glasner -> Rashford/ Eze and Pep worth a hit?

    Got 3x Mci, 3x arsenal and Rogers

    1. Pratik
      • 16 Years
      1 year, 3 days ago

      I would do it