Spot the Differential
2 May 2025 327 comments
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Gameweek 35 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is on the way, which allows us to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Leicester City, West Ham United and Everton, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

To qualify, the player should have an ownership of 5% or less.

JAMIE VARDY

  • FPL ownership: 4.6%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW35-38 fixtures: SOU | nfo | IPS | bou

Leicester City entertain Southampton on Saturday and we’re backing Jamie Vardy (£5.3m) to enjoy a fruitful afternoon at the King Power Stadium.

It’s the Saints defensive numbers, even under Simon Rusk, that offer real encouragement that the veteran forward can return to form.

Southampton have conceded six goals in three matches since the departure of Ivan Juric. They also rank among the worst three sides for minutes per expected goal conceded (xGC) in that same period, with 45.8.

Although Vardy has failed to register any attacking returns since Leicester’s 2-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur in January, his underlying stats at the King Power Stadium suggest points are on the way.

The 38-year-old, who will bid farewell to the Foxes this summer, has racked up nine shots in the box, including three big chances, in his last four home matches.

That’s despite facing Liverpool, Newcastle United, Manchester United and Brentford.

Above: Jamie Vardy’s shot map in his last four home matches

As you can see, two of those efforts were headers from decent central positions in the the box, a potentially significant factor, with Southampton bottom for headed shots conceded under Rusk.

Vardy has endured a frustrating campaign, tallying just seven goals and four assists, which is why his ownership stands at just 4.6% overall.

But with another favourable match against Ipswich Town to come, which will be Vardy’s final home game for Leicester, he looks to have the platform to flourish as a differential during the run-in, suggesting he might just be worth a roll of the dice.

“Performances like Liverpool and Brighton show the intensity, aggressiveness and willingness to play. The extra motivation is to give the best farewell to Jamie Vardy. He deserves that and the players will show that on Saturday.” – Ruud van Nistelrooy

MOHAMMED KUDUS

­­­FPL Gameweek 14 differentials: Kudus, Gomez + Delap

  • FPL ownership: 2.4%
  • Price: £6.2m
  • GW35-38 fixtures: TOT | mun | NFO | ips

Following an impressive performance at the Amex Stadium last time out, Mohammed Kudus (£6.2m) presents an intriguing differential option.

The Ghanaian found the net against Brighton and Hove Albion on Saturday, and over the last three Gameweeks, has racked up more shots than any other West Ham United player (eight).

No other Hammers asset has registered more penalty box touches than his 18, either.

Available at just £6.2m, Kudus looks kindly-priced ahead of a favourable home match-up against Tottenham Hotspur, who will likely rotate with one eye on Thursday’s huge UEFA Europa League semi-final second leg against Bodo/Glimt.

Ange Postecoglou’s side have failed to win seven of their last eight Premier League matches regardless, with the underlying stats in 2025 highlighting their defensive struggles.

Indeed, Spurs have conceded 24.79 xG and 44 big chances since the turn of the year, the most of any top-flight club except relegated trio Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town.

That could play into the hands of Kudus, who is likely to be deployed down West Ham’s left.

Graham Potter’s side also face Manchester United – crucially just three days after the Red Devils own UEFA Europa League semi-final second leg – Nottingham Forest and Ipswich in the final three Gameweeks, all of whom rank among the worst six sides for xG conceded per 90 in 2025.

So Kudus, who is owned by just 2.4% of FPL managers, could be worth a gamble to take advantage of that kind upcoming schedule.

JARRAD BRANTHWAITE

  • FPL ownership: 1.9%
  • Price: £4.8m
  • GW35-38 fixtures: IPS | ful | SOU | new

It’s partly the set-piece threat of Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.8m) that has seen us plump for the Everton man as our final choice.

The centre-back may have failed to score this season, but he has racked up six headed attempts since Boxing Day, a decent tally for a defender, so could finally find the net when the Toffees host Ipswich Town in Gameweek 35.  

That’s because Kieran McKenna’s side have conceded six goals from corners in their last six matches, easily the most in the division:

They are also bottom for set play shots and set play xG conceded over that same period, with 39 and 3.6 respectively, further highlighting their issues.

Given that Ipswich have failed to score in each of their last two matches, Saturday looks to present David Moyes’ side with a decent opportunity to claim a clean sheet, too.

The Toffees also face a favourable home match against Southampton in Gameweek 37, so as a cheap-ish option with plenty of upside, Branthwaite looks to tick quite a few boxes.



327 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Dutchy FPL
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Bench one:

    A) Mateta (also have Eze)
    B) Murphy
    C) Rogers

    1. Captain Robert Hatch
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      A2-Eze

    2. Bruno Commando
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      A

    3. Sid07
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      murphy

    4. Rico123
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      I have all of those including Eze and currently on benching Eze

  2. Philosopher's Stones
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    OA

    Start one

    A: Sarr
    B: Mateta

    1. Dutchy FPL
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      A

    2. Bruno Commando
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      B

    3. Sid07
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      A

    4. Mufc202020
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      B

  3. Sid07
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    1) murphy to rogers
    2) sarr to rogers
    3) saka to bowen
    4) save and play murphy

    1. Captain Robert Hatch
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      2

    2. Dutchy FPL
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      3

  4. ididnt
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    If all my ML rivals have Isak - is it a smart move to bring him in for a hit?

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      If you are leading then yes

  5. Captain Mal
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Just a friendly reminder that Hermansen shouldn't be in Leicester's predicted lineup.

    1. Punk as Fuchs
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Stolarczyk - king of the differentials this week

  6. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Barnes welbeck raul
    Choose 2 to start

  7. Warby84
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Bruno to Mbeumo -4 or just hold??

    1. Wet Bandits
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Not for a hit

    2. Mufc202020
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Hit

  8. Warby84
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Bought Branthwaite in for Robinson last Monday…

    1. RoyaleBlue
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Before it was cool

  9. One More Hit
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Is benching all three Arsenal players a bad idea? Wasn't keen on double defence but wondering if I've strayed too far the other way given EO?

    Martinez

    Gvardiol - Ruben Dias - Munoz

    Sarr - Rogers - Bowen - Salah

    Wissa - Isak - Marmoush

    Leaving a bench of Raya - Saka - Saliba - Milenkovic

    1. Punk as Fuchs
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Maybe swap Dias for Saliba to spread the risk?

      1. Rico123
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Agree with this

  10. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Capt barnes or bowen if chasing

    1. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Bowen for me

  11. Kante Touch This
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Bench one:

    Enzo (LIV)
    Elanga (cry)
    Asensio (FUL)

    1. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Elanga (assuming Asensio should start)

  12. Thomas Magnum
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Better picks for AM and captain? Chasing rank
    A) Glasner
    B) Potter

    1) Salah
    2) KDB
    3) Bowen

    1. mattyb09
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Potter and KDB

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      A for table bonus potential
      2) KDB

  13. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    How's this WC looking? Too much Everton and Forest defense? Really want to start Rogers but for who? Captain is between KDB, Marmoush and Watkins.

    Pickford
    Gvardiol, O'Brien, Branthwaite
    Salah, KDB, Mbeumo, Bowen
    Watkins, Marmoush, Wissa

    Sels, Rogers, Milenkovic, Williams

    1. Conners
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      I'd get Kiwior instead of one of the Forest defs.

      1. Big Ronnie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Cheers. I had contemplated that, saves a transfer down the line too.

  14. tiger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Best defender to get for the last 4 games...but not Man City one?

    1. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Maybe Ait Nouri. Seems to end seasons well

  15. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Which is better if u Hardly Chase
    A- Vardy Bowen
    B- Vardy Mbeumo
    C- Bowen Wissa
    D- Bowen Mbeumo

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Help plzzzzz

    2. Bobbyg1
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      D

  16. George James
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    If you found out pre deadline Savinho was starting tonight which would you play?

    A) Sarr
    B) Savinho.

    1. Threat Level Midnight
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Savinho no close

  17. Manani
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    who to score more this week:

    A. Wissa
    B. Bowen

    1. Dutchy FPL
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Close.. A

    2. Mufc202020
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      B

    3. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      A

  18. Richm
    • 3 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Captain KDB?

  19. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Afternoon all - 2.3m ITB & 2FT. Which one please?

    AM - Moyes
    Raya
    Livra - Gvardiol - Konsa
    Rogers - Murphy - Mbeumo - Saka
    Marmoush - Isak - Mateta

    (Areola) - Sarr - Munoz - Saliba

    A) Save
    B) Mateta > Wissa
    C) Mateta > Watkins (triple villa)
    D) Sarr > Bowen

  20. Wet Bandits
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    I have to bin Saka for either Mbuemo or Bowen (I'm -6 from leading ML so feel I need to stick with the template)

    Would selling either Sarr, Eze or Murphy for Kudus or Schade cover the template?

  21. Mufc202020
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    A) Braithwaite & Kudos
    B) Sessegnon & Bowen

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      B

  22. Gandalf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    1FT and BB36

    Which transfers to make?
    A. Mateta > Wissa
    B. Saka (or Sarr) > Mbeumo
    C. Both for -4

  23. PScholes18
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Which is best?

    A: Saka to Mbuemo
    B Saka + Rogers to Mbuemo + Bowen for a hit

  24. Devos
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Should I do this transfer for a hit?
    Out: Saka
    In: Bowen

    Y/N

    Thanks and good luck this gameweeks!

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Y

  25. Punk as Fuchs
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    If you had Raya in goal, would you go for: A) Saliba B) AWB C) Konsa?

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      A

  26. ShaunGoater123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    thinking of Saka, Mateta & Dorgu > Mbuemo, Watkins & O'Brien for free and then would play BB - thoughts?

    Martinez
    Saliab / Munoz / Gvardiol
    Salah / Mbuemo / Sarr / Asensio
    Watkins / Isak (C) / Marmoush

    Ederson / Gordon / Burn / O'Brien

    72 points behind so I gotta get differentials and play different captains

  27. Nightf0x
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Sels (raya)
    Konate burn milenkovic (munoz kiwior)
    Kdb salah saka murphy rogers
    Isak marmoush (mateta)

    5 fts, which and whom?

    A) konate/munoz saka to myko/obrien bowen/elanga/mbeumo
    B) konate/munoz mateta to myko/obrien watkins/wood/wisa/cunha
    C) do a & b, but bench whom ?

  28. zensum
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Need fast advice:
    Diaz to
    A) KDB -4
    B) BOWEN -4
    C) Save

    Preferably till the end of season. Appreciate your help 🙂

    1. ball c
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      A

  29. sneif4
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Start:
    Murphy (bha)
    Sarr (NFO)

    1. Hanz0
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Leaning Murphy as Brighton have conceded a lot of goals in their recent games

  30. Alli
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    A. Sarr > Mbuemo
    B. Mateta > Wissa

    Raya
    Saliba - Munoz - Dias - Gvardiol
    Salah - Murphy - Rogers - Saka
    Marmoush - Isak

    Areola - Mateta - Sarr - Konsa

    1. Punk as Fuchs
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      I've done both, if you can only do one though I'd probably go for Mbuemo

    2. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Not considering losing Saka before Sarr?