Europe or ‘on the beach’: What’s left to play for in 2024/25?

By the time we reach May, the usual debate over ‘motivation’ rears its head in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

This season, more than most, that conversation is being had. Liverpool have wrapped the title up, while all three relegation spots are already decided.

There are still teams with something to play for, however, namely European qualification.

The clubs from 2nd down to 7th are all in a tussle for a UEFA Champions League spot. Four sides, currently lying 8th to 11th, have designs on a possible place in next season’s UEFA Europa Conference League.

‘SOMETHING TO PLAY FOR’: DOES IT MEAN MUCH?

There are two schools of thought about end-of-season motivation.

One is that being ‘on the beach’, ie without a title, European qualification or survival to fight for, will result in half-baked performances. Sunday’s stinkfest that was West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Reserves neatly fits that convenient narrative, overlooking the fact that these two underwhelming teams could have easily delivered the same performances months ago.

However, there is also the viewpoint that playing without pressure can liberate players. Mid-table obscurity was no barrier to Crystal Palace winning five of their last six games in 2023/24 as things finally clicked under Oliver Glasner. A Members article from this time last year, while acknowledging the small sample, highlighted an upswing in goals at both ends of the field for those with ‘nothing to play for’.

There is one possible advantage to owning players who are still in the hunt for something: teamsheet predictability.

While Liverpool’s Arne Slot is happy to give fringe players a chance post-title success, we know that most teams who are battling for European spots will go strong in their pursuit. They’ll be the usual week-to-week rotation in some positions and the occasional shock (Antoine Semenyo (£5.7m) dropping to the bench in Gameweek 35, for instance) but, for the most part, those in 2nd to 11th place are going to be fielding the regulars until their fates are sealed.

When we Fantasy managers are looking to end the season with a flourish, a reliability of starts is one less headache.

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFICATION

• Clubs in contention: Arsenal (2nd), Manchester City (3rd), Newcastle United (4th), Chelsea (5th), Nottingham Forest (6th), Aston Villa (7th)
• Qualification spots up for grabs: Four (2nd-5th)

STATE OF PLAY

One more win guarantees Arsenal a top-five place, while if Manchester City win their next two matches, they’ll follow the Gunners into next season’s Champions League.

The other four sides in top-five contention, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa, won’t have their fates resolved until Gameweek 37 at the earliest.

Probably the dream scenario would be Newcastle and Chelsea to draw on Tyneside this weekend, going on to win their Gameweek 37 fixtures (which might be more straightforward for the Blues), and Villa and Forest to win their next two matches. Newcastle, Chelsea and Forest would then be on 67 points, with Villa on 66, going into the final day.

The Blues are still in the UEFA Europa Conference League but Enzo Maresca will likely field a second string in Thursday’s semi-final second leg, with his side already 4-1 up on aggregate. The final is on Wednesday 28 May, three days after Gameweek 38, so if Chelsea are already assured of a top-five spot by the final day, there could be some rotation.

UEFA EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE QUALIFICATION

• Clubs in contention: Bournemouth (8th), Brentford (9th), Brighton (10th), Fulham (11th)
• Qualification spots up for grabs: One (8th – but only if Man City win the FA Cup)

STATE OF PLAY

This race is fairly straightforward. For the next two Gameweeks, at the very least, Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion and Fulham will all still be in the running for eighth.

It could all be for nothing, it’s worth saying. If Crystal Palace win the FA Cup on Saturday 17 May, then all four of these clubs will know that eighth place won’t be enough for Europa Conference League football before they contest their Gameweek 37 matches.

ON THE BEACH?

LIVERPOOL (1ST)

There’s a great deal of uncertainty about Liverpool assets heading into the final three Gameweeks.

Arne Slot said before the Chelsea game last Sunday that he would rotate, and he duly did. The Dutchman made six line-up changes for the trip to Stamford Bridge.

“My line-ups will be different to what we’ve had mostly during the last 10 months. We’re not going to change everyone but there will be a few players that come into the team, there will be a certain rotation in the upcoming games.” – Arne Slot, speaking before the Chelsea game

Fringe players and regulars alike served up a forgettable display, although Slot seemed to suggest that the rotation would continue in the final three Gameweeks despite the defeat in west London.

“They deserve to play these games because they have trained so hard this season. Every time they did so well so that’s why I think they deserved to play this game. We don’t judge them only on this game, we judge them every day on the training ground and in the moments that they play for us.” – Arne Slot, speaking after the Chelsea game

In terms of personal aims, Mohamed Salah (£13.8m) still has a goal involvements record to go for.

CRYSTAL PALACE (12TH)

Oliver Glasner said last week that he would go full strength in Gameweeks 35 and 36, in an aim to build rhythm for the FA Cup final. There was certainly no sign of the Eagles dialling it in on Monday night, when they were the better team against Nottingham Forest, who have a Champions League place at stake.

“We could see that players are fit, players are ready, and I think that, with our schedule, we don’t have to save energy and power for any game, especially now.

“It’s always better staying in the rhythm than having maybe 10 days, two weeks, with no game – you lose your rhythm. The players are used to playing in this rhythm, so [it will be the] best possible team.” – Oliver Glasner, speaking ahead of Gameweek 35

Glasner has also said he wants Palace to set a new club points record in the run-in, which they’re still four away from doing.

Gameweek 37 might be a slight concern given that it follows three days after the cup final. Perhaps we’ll see the sort of modest rotation witnessed at Arsenal in Double Gameweek 33, but wholesale changes seem unlikely based on Glasner’s track record.

WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS (13TH)

Wolves secured Premier League safety after Gameweek 33 but they’ve shown no sign of slowing down.

Vitor Pereira has gone full strength in his following two games, with his only change being enforced due to injury.

The Portuguese head coach has made all the right noises about not taking the foot off the gas in the run-in.

“I’m just looking forward to the next game, and the game after. We must go there to compete for the three points. This is the most important for this game and the upcoming ones, because the previous games are in the past.”

“I need to see ambition in my team. We are talking about relegation, but this is not our target; we aim to reach the best possible position on the table.

“Our season is not over yet. When I first came here, the situation was difficult, but I knew that we had and still have the quality needed to reach the best possible position in the league.” – Vitor Pereira, speaking ahead of Gameweek 34

EVERTON (14TH)

By contrast, David Moyes has repeatedly said that he will use Everton’s remaining matches to experiment with his squad and give fringe players a chance.

“We’ve tried some different things to do, as well, to see how players play in different roles.

“It’s the sort of things that a lot of the supporters have been asking about. Iliman [Ndiaye] playing as a 10 and, you know, I want to see more of Carlos Alcaraz, so we’ve given them a good opportunity to show what they can do.” – David Moyes, speaking after Gameweek 35

The tinkering actually began as early as Gameweek 31, when Tim Iroegbunam (£4.3m) and Nathan Patterson (£4.4m) were handed starts.

Up top, Armando Broja (£5.3m) started in Gameweeks 32 and 33, with Beto (£4.8m) back to spearhead the attack in the last two matches. With Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.4m) back fit (for the time being), there could be further tweaks.

MANCHESTER UNITED AND TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR (15TH AND 16TH)

United and Spurs are pretty much ‘avoids’ in the run-in. These two clubs are on the Basque beaches, ahead of a likely clash between the two sides in Bilbao on Wednesday 21 May.

Rubem Amorim and Ange Postecoglou have been rotating on either side of UEFA Europa League fixtures for weeks now, doing so again in Gameweek 35.

Both clubs’ Gameweek 37 matches have been moved to Friday 16 May, giving them a bit of extra preparation time for the Europa League final, and it’s possible that the regulars get starts in those fixtures to build a bit of rhythm for the season-defining clash at the San Mames Stadium.

Really, though, both managers have made no secret that they’ve checked out domestically.

“Yeah, likely. I think it’s important for us because it’s a quick turnaround and we’ve had our issues this year and continue to have issues. That’s just the way our season’s going. At the same time, it just goes to show how important it is that the players who aren’t playing are ready to go, like with Biss last night.” – Ange Postecoglou when asked if there will be ‘plenty of changes’ in Gameweek 35

“In this moment it’s hard to separate [the Premier League and the Europa League]. We know that we have always a responsibility. But in this moment we have to take a risk, and there are some positions that we don’t have more players. For example, Nous Mazraoui cannot play. He’s in the limit to get an injury.

“So we are going to deal with that and prepare a game against a team that they won today and is in a great moment. And we have always a responsibility to perform. We have always a responsibility to offer the result. But in this moment, we have to be clear: our focus is more on saving players and trying to be competitive. It’s not a good thing to say, but we need to understand the context.” – Ruben Amorim, speaking aehad of Gameweek 35

WEST HAM UNITED (17TH)

Can Graham Potter afford not to take the remaining matches seriously, despite safety being assured?

Already under a bit of pressure from certain sections of the West Ham faithful, Potter himself has admitted that wins are needed to get the Hammers out of their current funk.

In 18th place in the eight-match form table, West Ham are without a victory in that time.

“It’s about points at the end of the day, and wins, which is what we need.

“When you’re on the sort of run we’re on, you just want and need wins. We want a front-footed performance – one that shows who we are, full of pride – and to come away with the points.” – Graham Potter, speaking ahead of Gameweek 35

IPSWICH TOWN, LEICESTER CITY AND SOUTHAMPTON (18TH, 19TH AND 20TH)

Finally, the sour quince logs of the Premier League: the relegated trio.

Since Southampton were sent down in Gameweek 31, Ivan Juric has been sacked and Simon Rusk has taken interim charge. Perhaps keen to impress, Rusk has put out a settled side, with nine ever-present starters in four Gameweeks.

Improved performances against West Ham United and Fulham followed, but it’s possibly all back to square one after a listless 2-0 defeat to fellow whipping boys Leicester City.

Saints still need a point to avoid staying with Derby County on the worst-ever points tally (11) for a single Premier League season.

“It’s going to make zero difference to my preparation and the team’s preparation me talking about the points record, we’re desperate to do well.

“We’re bitterly disappointed with how we’ve performed. We wanted something out of the game to move past the points record, but we’ve not got it.

“I just can’t, I can’t obsess about the points record because ultimately, it’s the performance levels that I’ve got to obsess about. That’s it.” – Simon Rusk after Gameweek 35

Leicester were mathematically confirmed as down in Gameweek 33.

Ruud van Nistelrooy hasn’t done much differently with his tactics since then, with four of his five changes in Gameweek 35 enforced. He’s so far resisted the calls to start youth products like Jeremy Monga (£4.5m).

Jamie Vardy (£5.3m) surely starts in the remaining three matches as he prepares to bid farewell: he needs just one more goal to reach 200 for the Foxes.

Finally, Ipswich Town were officially relegated in Gameweek 34. Kieran McKenna has churned out similar soundbites to Rusk and van Nistelrooy, talking of rewarding fans and showing plenty of effort in the remaining games.

“I don’t think there’s any question mark around [the effort]. It’s how it has to be. The supporters deserve it and that’s what we have to keep on showing.” – Kieran McKenna

Some of the longer-term club servants may feature more prominently in the run-in. We saw Conor Chaplin (£5.1m) make his first start of 2025 at Everton, while McKenna has talked up George Hirst (£5.4m) in recent weeks.

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