The UK loves annual traditions. Whether it is Christmas, pranks to start April, briefly remembering pancakes, or that one week of hot weather, a new ritual involves Erling Haaland (£14.5m) providing a blistering start to Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers.
Nine goals in seven matches have led to around five million purchases and, at the time of writing, five price rises.
Using stats from the Members Area, let’s determine whether this is his best beginning at Manchester City.
HIS SEASON SO FAR
Although Pep Guardiola’s side has already lost twice, putting them down in fifth place, Haaland hasn’t slowed down from his usual standards. You see, the first six matches from all four of his Premier League seasons (24 in total) have seen him score an astonishing 36 times.
Including the five from Norway’s 11-1 thrashing of Moldova, he’s accumulated 18 strikes in 11 outings for club and country.
Sweetly, he believes it’s due to the happiness of being a new dad.
Domestically, he’s far ahead of everyone else for goals (nine), attempts (29), big chances (14) and expected goals (xG, 7.71 – see above image).
A Gameweek 6 haul earned him plenty of goodwill amongst many Triple Captain users, too. At a moment when Mohamed Salah (£14.4m) keeps either blanking or eventually salvaging something in stoppage time, managers have ensured that Haaland has overtaken the Egyptian in terms of price and ownership.
HOW IT COMPARES
By netting at Brentford on Sunday, Haaland grabbed his first-ever FPL Gameweek 7 goal. In fairness, 2022/23 didn’t have such a weekend, as the passing of Queen Elizabeth II caused complete postponements.
That’s why the comparison table below stretches to that season’s Gameweek 8 – match number seven.
So, is this Haaland’s best-ever start to an FPL campaign?
Above: In each category, the best Haaland numbers are coloured gold, then silver
Scarily, no. He’s only exceeded the previous three seasons for expected goal involvement (xGI, 8.44) and bonus points (17).
In fact, this is Haaland’s worst for shots on target (14). He hasn’t even bagged a hat-trick yet, whereas past starts have gathered five of them.
WILL HE SLOW DOWN?
Each of these four starts has featured positive xG Delta tallies. For example, his nine goals are alongside 7.71 xG, giving an overachievement of +1.29.
In order, the other three were +5.48, +1.06 and +3.50.
This is hard to maintain over a longer period. Out of curiosity, does Haaland usually slow down during his following seven outings?
Above: In each category, Haaland’s improvements are coloured green, as opposed to red
He does, although the 2022/23 and 2023/24 numbers were still superb: 21 attacking returns from 14 occasions, averaging 8.57 FPL points per appearance.
This season one spell saw him proceed with +2.65 xG Delta and more frequent shots, but the others brought underachievements of -0.21 and -3.76. Just two goals from 11 big chances in 2024/25.
Remember Man City’s big collapse between Halloween and Boxing Day? In all competitions, a 13-match run brought one win and a whopping nine defeats.
Avoid that this time, and the 25-year-old will still likely be favoured over Salah – especially once the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) comes around.
Man City’s next five fixtures are the hardest, according to our Ticker, but then there’s a glorious run between Gameweeks 13 and 19. Haaland feels essential for that.
However, upon Salah’s return in January, it’ll be interesting to see if Haaland is still the preferred premium when fixtures toughen.
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