In our latest community article, FPL_Runpharm scrutinises the psychology of making early transfers in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
There’s always a special kind of madness that happens right after a bad Gameweek. You know the feeling: you stare at your team, absolutely disgusted. The guy you captained blanked (Erling Haaland (£14.7m), in this instance), the one you sold just hauled (Micky van de Ven (£4.7m)/Pedro Porro (£5.5m)), and your mini-league rival suddenly looks like a genius (starting Joe Rodon (£4.1m)). Then, as if possessed, your thumb opens the ‘Transfers’ tab. Before you know it, you’ve hit ‘Confirm’. It’s Monday. The deadline is Saturday. And there are still EFL Cup ties in midweek.
Welcome to the psychology of early transfers — where heart beats brain, and emotion beats logic every single time.
LOSS > GAIN
You tend to replay your mistakes in your head more after a bad Gameweek. You imagine how high your rank could have been. The pain of losing points hurts twice as much as the joy of gaining them. As per Daniel Kahneman’s loss aversion theory: “People feel the pain of a loss more intensely than the pleasure of an equal gain”.
Pain is hard to accept. So, instead of accepting it, Fantasy managers try to do anything to fix it. That’s when early transfers happen. The subconscious says, “If I make my move now, I’m taking charge again.” Except… you’re not. You’re reacting.
IMPULSE BUYING
Impulse buying can be defined as “a strong, sometimes irresistible urge, a sudden inclination to act without deliberation.” (Rook, D. W. (1987). The Buying Impulse). Sometimes, we do it in FPL, too. It’s the emotional equivalent of a sugar hit. Short-term satisfaction, long-term regret (touch wood… what if Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.7m) got hurt against Liverpool in the EFL Cup?)
Neuroscientists call this hot cognition. When you’re emotional, your decisions get hijacked by feelings instead of facts. Your brain is hotter, flooded with hormones that make you impulsive. The moment you say, “I can’t stand watching this player again” – whether that’s Joao Pedro (£7.5m), Tijjani Reijnders (£5.6m), Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) – you’ve already handed your power to emotion. And emotion doesn’t analyse risks, it hides them from you.
FOMO… AND ‘FOBPO’
And there are the usuals. The fear of being priced out. The “everybody is doing it” factor. When you panic, you tend to scroll social media even more, looking for a solution, salvation, some cure that you know doesn’t really exist. You start seeing posts that everyone is selling Pedro for Mateta. You feel left behind. A primitive instinct that says, “If they’re running, I should run too.” But are we sure what we’re really running away from? Or are we actually running into deeper trouble?
I’m not saying early transfers are always wrong. If you’re doing it out of clarity, that’s strategy. If you’re doing it out of emotion, that’s impulse. The line between the two is thinner than we like to admit. So take this as food for thought – and here’s wishing everyone a green arrow in Gameweek 10!
