In our latest community article, FPL_Runpharm scrutinises the psychology of making early transfers in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
Thereโs always a special kind of madness that happens right after a bad Gameweek. You know the feeling: you stare at your team, absolutely disgusted. The guy you captained blanked (Erling Haaland (ยฃ14.7m), in this instance), the one you sold just hauled (Micky van de Ven (ยฃ4.7m)/Pedro Porro (ยฃ5.5m)), and your mini-league rival suddenly looks like a genius (starting Joe Rodon (ยฃ4.1m)). Then, as if possessed, your thumb opens the ‘Transfers’ tab. Before you know it, youโve hit ‘Confirm’. Itโs Monday. The deadline is Saturday. And there are still EFL Cup ties in midweek.
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Welcome to the psychology of early transfers โ where heart beats brain, and emotion beats logic every single time.
LOSS > GAIN
You tend to replay your mistakes in your head more after a bad Gameweek. You imagine how high your rank could have been. The pain of losing points hurts twice as much as the joy of gaining them. As per Daniel Kahneman’s loss aversion theory: “People feel the pain of a loss more intensely than the pleasure of an equal gain”.
Pain is hard to accept. So, instead of accepting it, Fantasy managers try to do anything to fix it. Thatโs when early transfers happen. The subconscious says, โIf I make my move now, Iโm taking charge again.โ Exceptโฆ youโre not. Youโre reacting.
IMPULSE BUYING
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Impulse buying can be defined as “a strong, sometimes irresistible urge, a sudden inclination to act without deliberation.” (Rook, D. W. (1987). The Buying Impulse). Sometimes, we do it in FPL, too. Itโs the emotional equivalent of a sugar hit. Short-term satisfaction, long-term regret (touch wood… what if Jean-Philippe Mateta (ยฃ7.7m) got hurt against Liverpool in the EFL Cup?)
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Neuroscientists call this hot cognition. When youโre emotional, your decisions get hijacked by feelings instead of facts. Your brain is hotter, flooded with hormones that make you impulsive. The moment you say, โI canโt stand watching this player againโ – whether that’s Joao Pedro (ยฃ7.5m), Tijjani Reijnders (ยฃ5.6m), Viktor Gyokeres (ยฃ9.0m) – youโve already handed your power to emotion. And emotion doesnโt analyse risks, it hides them from you.
FOMO… AND ‘FOBPO’
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And there are the usuals. The fear of being priced out. The “everybody is doing it” factor. When you panic, you tend to scroll social media even more, looking for a solution, salvation, some cure that you know doesn’t really exist. You start seeing posts that everyone is selling Pedro for Mateta. You feel left behind. A primitive instinct that says, โIf theyโre running, I should run too.” But are we sure what we’re really running away from? Or are we actually running into deeper trouble?
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Iโm not saying early transfers are always wrong. If youโre doing it out of clarity, thatโs strategy. If youโre doing it out of emotion, thatโs impulse. The line between the two is thinner than we like to admit. So take this as food for thought – and here’s wishing everyone a green arrow in Gameweek 10!
