Gameweek 11 presents various transfer dilemmas for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers.
Based on fixtures, form and injuries, these players are currently experiencing considerable transfer activity in (TI(R), below) and out (TO(R), below).
But whether it’s a good idea or not remains open for debate.
Here, we share our thoughts on who to buy, keep and sell ahead of Saturday’s deadline.
DANNY WELBECK
Danny Welbeck (£6.5m) has hit six goals in his last five appearances, a period which has seen him average 7.4 points per match.
This impressive scoring streak has thrust the veteran forward back into the England conversation, with Thomas Tuchel set to name his squad for this month’s World Cup qualifiers against Serbia and Albania later this week.
However, for FPL managers, Welbeck’s low shot volume is a potential concern.
The 34-year-old has managed just 10 goal attempts over the last five Gameweeks, fewer than a bunch of other forwards at a similar-ish price point.
He’s impressively buried six of them, as shown below, but Welbeck’s conversion rate has traditionally hovered around the 15% mark in recent years.
In his last five matches, it’s up to 60%, which is obviously superb, just don’t expect it to continue.
Creatively, Welbeck is averaging just over one key pass per 90 minutes, so there is limited assist potential too.
That said, there aren’t too many sub-£7.0m forwards who are putting their hands up right now. Igor Thiago (£6.2m) is arguably the best in that price bracket, but even then, it isn’t clear-cut given the fixtures.
If you already own Welbeck, there is an obvious case to retain him, given that he’s a sure starter on current form and is likely to take penalties when James Milner (£5.0m) isn’t on the pitch.
However, we’d ideally like to see an increase in his shot volume before bumping him up to the ‘buy’ category.
VERDICT: KEEP
NICK WOLTEMADE
With Newcastle United “unrecognisable” in the first half against West Ham United on Sunday, Eddie Howe made the early move to substitute Nick Woltemade (£7.5m) and Anthony Gordon (£7.5m).
The decision understandably left owners feeling frustrated, especially since Woltemade had previously blanked against Fulham at St James’ Park.
However, the tactical tweak didn’t exactly help, with the Magpies unable to maintain any control in the second half, opting instead to sit back and let their opponents have the ball.
As a result, Woltemade almost certainly shouldn’t be panic-sold, having previously plundered four goals in six matches, but his situation is worth monitoring.
The primary concern isn’t Yoane Wissa (£7.3m), who, as stated by Howe, will require a “six-week pre-season” to get him up to speed, but rather the decline in Newcastle’s attacking output, which is captured below.
But there are reasons for optimism.
Firstly, only Nottingham Forest have attempted more crosses than Newcastle’s 225 this season, a potentially promising sign for Woltemade, considering his skill set.
Additionally, Lewis Hall (£5.2m) was back on the bench in Gameweek 10. With both Hall and Tino Livramento (£4.9m) sidelined due to injury, Dan Burn (£5.2m) has largely featured at left-back. He tends to remain a bit deeper, which helps with their defensive solidity, but it can limit their attacking threat. With Hall back in the starting XI, the dynamics of Newcastle’s attack should instantly improve.
The fixtures remain pretty good, too, with favourable clashes against Brentford, Everton, Burnley and Sunderland in the next six Gameweeks.
VERDICT: KEEP
TIJJANI REIJNDERS
Tijjani Reijnders (£5.5m), who was benched against Bournemouth on Sunday, is on the chopping block for many FPL managers.
His absence from the starting XI was not merely a tactical decision; the Dutchman was not fit enough to start. However, with only one assist in nine matches, patience was wearing thin regardless.
Reijnders is still getting off a decent number of shots, with one every 25.6 minutes over the last four Gameweeks.
But his volume of key passes is low, with just four chances created in his last five matches.
Additionally, he’ll rarely hit the defensive contributions (DefCon) threshold.
Given his price, plus the fact Manchester City have some very decent fixtures from Gameweek 13 onwards, it’s probably fine to continue with Reijnders in your squad.
However, the recent impact of Rayan Cherki (£6.3m), who may very well be the City midfielder to own soon, could push Reijnders further back. Therefore, it might be a decent time to offload the Dutchman, particularly with Liverpool and Newcastle United up next.
We discussed some of the best £6.0m-and-under replacements for Reijnders earlier this week, which you can read here.
VERDICT: SELL
BRYAN MBEUMO
Bryan Mbeumo (£8.2m) – a player we recommended buying a couple of weeks back – continues to present considerable upside.
The Cameroon international has produced 32 points over the last four Gameweeks, thanks to three goals and one assist.
Crucially, the underlying stats indicate that his current output is sustainable.
Throughout the season thus far, Mbeumo ranks joint-third among midfielders for shots (24), while his 19 shots in the box place joint-first in his position, level with Mohamed Salah (£14.2m).
He has even been afforded more big chances than Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m), by six to five, despite not taking penalties.
A portion of set-piece duties should also contribute to a steady stream of assists.
Considering United’s ticker-topping fixture run over the next six Gameweeks, there is no reason not to buy Mbeumo.
VERDICT: BUY
BUKAYO SAKA
Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) has largely been playing well recently, despite the lack of attacking returns.
He could, and probably should, have scored twice against Burnley on Saturday, and he was electric against Fulham in Gameweek 8, clearly establishing himself as Arsenal’s most potent offensive weapon.
Additionally, he’s been extremely unlucky not to register an assist this season, having created a chance every 39 minutes, a faster rate than any other Arsenal player (minimum five starts).
But this situation should certainly improve soon, considering that Saka is Arsenal’s left-footed corner taker.
It’s perhaps a make-or-break Gameweek for Saka owners, as they face Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea after the international break.
However, the winger feels like an easy hold against Sunderland, especially since he should be the main penalty taker with Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) likely sidelined due to injury.
VERDICT: KEEP
