In his latest article, three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser talks Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.6m) replacements, the Free Hit and Mohamed Salah (£14.2m).
Well, it’s time to wake up from our FPL slumber. I say that because flags are appearing left and right, the most important one of which is for Arsenal’s Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.6m), who could miss 1-2 months.
Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m) has rightly emerged as the most ‘discussed’ replacement option and Scout have already deep dived into potential replacements, which you can read about here.
VAN DIJK v DE LIGT
As things stand, I am likely to go with van Dijk, as having a robust defender in this fixture-congested period is going to be really fruitful (despite my heart being enticed by someone else). He also fits the most with my team rotation.
I currently own Gabriel, Jurrien Timber (£6.2m), Marcos Senesi (£5.0m), Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) and Joe Rodon (£4.1m). Let’s have a quick look at the rotation so you understand what I mean. It might help, as these are very popular defenders and you should look at the rotation for your defence to understand your needs.
If you look at the rotation here, I require a defender most in Gameweeks 12, 14, 15, 16, 19 and 20. The four options I am really considering are van Dijk, Matthijs de Ligt (£5.0m), Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m) and Chris Richards (£4.5m). Below is the Fixture Ticker for defenders in those Gameweeks to make life easier.
Manchester United and Liverpool both really cover fixtures for my current defence really well for the mentioned Gameweeks. While Brighton have ‘green’ fixtures on paper, Brentford and Aston Villa aren’t banker clean sheet fixtures.
Some of the key comparison points for van Dijk vs de Ligt are below:
Van Dijk v De Ligt
- Points: 41 vs 39
- Price: £5.9m vs £5.0m
- Clean Sheets: 3 vs 1
- xG: 0.41 vs 0.99
- xA: 0.20 vs 0.48
- xGI: 0.61 vs 1.47
- Shots in the box: 4 vs 7
- Big chances: 2 vs 1
- xGC: 13.93 vs 16.78
- DefCon points: 12 vs 8
- Total defensive contributions: 119 vs 96
Van Dijk looks like the more reliable option, especially with United still not a trustworthy option when it comes to defence. De Ligt does have decent points potential due to set pieces, DefCon and has some great fixtures for the foreseeable, however.
One assessment we do need to make is where (if at all) we can save the money banked. One other pick that is very much on my mind is O’Reilly but given the schedule, I don’t fully trust his minutes and it doesn’t help that he has Newcastle United away this week.
I am looking to maybe Free Hit in Gameweek 13, when O’Reilly has Leeds United at home. I haven’t fully ruled out Daniel Munoz (£5.8m) either. It is worthwhile looking at the fixture schedule below from this excellent chart from @abhii_g7.
The most important thing to look at here is that Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea all have a Sunday-Wednesday-Saturday schedule between Gameweeks 13 to 15, which screams of rotation to me. As far as possible, we have to think about minutes-secure picks in this period; even the most secure ones might see managed minutes.
Manchester City also have midweek fixtures every week for the foreseeable, which is what worries me about O’Reilly, but I wonder if I can consider purchasing him in Gameweek 15 or 17 when Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.7m) is off to the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON). I’m not too worried about Ait-Nouri’s threat, as I do feel that O’Reilly is firmly the first choice for Manchester City. That said, the schedule is the schedule.
Just a quick note on Manchester United, who have a very obliging schedule in this period and should be secure for minutes.
FREE HIT: GAMEWEEK 13 OR 16?
Your upcoming transfers are also dependent on your Free Hit strategy (if you have that pending). For me, it’s Gameweek 13 v 16 for the Free Hit.
GAMEWEEK 13
One of the big pros of a Gameweek 13 Free Hit is that Chelsea play Arsenal at home, which isn’t the best fixture on paper, and Crystal Palace host Manchester United. You would probably not have any Arsenal or Chelsea players on a Free Hit and you might get to tailor-pick three Manchester City players (leak-dependent) and a Liverpool attacker or two.
Brentford and Aston Villa also have juicy fixtures, whereas highly owned Bournemouth travel to Sunderland, which is not the best fixture on paper these days. If you Free Hit in Gameweek 13, you can add Liverpool/Manchester United/Arsenal players this week and, in case of the latter two, Free Hit them out for their tricky Gameweek 13 match. The big factor is that you aren’t betting against Erling Haaland (£14.9m), even on a Free Hit.
GAMEWEEK 16
The other option is Free Hitting in Gameweek 16. This involves a big strategy decision, in my opinion.
If you are Free Hitting in Gameweek 16, you could consider upgrading Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) to Mohamed Salah (£14.2m) this week for his upcoming good run.
Manchester City travel to Crystal Palace in Gameweek 16, whereas Arsenal’s juiciest fixture in this period is in that same Gameweek against Wolverhampton Wanderers. You can Free Hit Saka and a couple of Arsenal defenders in Gameweek 16. In addition, you can gamble against Haaland.
Getting Salah now (at the cost of Saka) is the primary decision I will be mulling over in the next few days.
If you want more, we had our longest FPL Wire pod on Tuesday, where we deep-dive into Gabriel replacements, fixture congestion and lots more. You can view it below.
