Tom Hadley – a one-time world number one in FPL – is the newest addition to our ever-growing team of contributors.

He’s providing data-driven articles regularly this season, chiefly around defensive contribution points (DefCon).

In this piece, he picks out the most reliable defenders, talismans for the festive period and players who can haul from doing relatively little.

A slightly different piece than usual, but I wanted to cover a variety of ways to really maximise value with picks.

As the hectic festive schedule is nearly upon us, it seems like no better time.

RELIABLE DEFENDERS

Where better to start than the most reliable assets for consistent DefCon points.

We are all aware of the main DefCon beasts at this point but I’m looking in particular to specify which of those are most likely to generate solid returns on the most consistent basis.

Here are the best DefCon assets in the game and the number of times they have hit four or more points this season (basically, who has the most consistent high-floor score). 

There are a few really notable stats here!

SENESI

First and foremost, I stand by the fact that Marcos Senesi (£4.9m) is still a great pick. The DefCon data is off the charts and he’s so comfortably ahead of the pack in that department. Having said that, Bournemouth are currently conceding a lot of goals and he likes his fair share of bookings. 

As a result, his 4+ hit rate stands at just 44%, leaving him somewhat behind his fellow DefCon leaders in respect to points consistency. Just because he poses the best chance of DefCon, it doesn’t necessarily mean we can expect positive points every match! He does, however, rack up consistent expected goal involvement (xGI), ranking third-highest amongst defenders. That’s particularly impressive from centre-back, and I do believe the attacking returns will come.

POINTS LEADERS

We all know the high standards that Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.2m) was setting pre-injury, so it’s no surprise he leads the chart for 4+ hits.

Interestingly, though, the likes of Trevor Chalobah (£5.5m) and Marc Guehi (£5.3m) are not only the top two scoring defenders, but they also spread their points very consistently across the board. Their combination of DefCon, clean sheets and attacking returns means you can play them in any given game and feasibly expect a solid return.

SUNDERLAND DEFENDERS

I think the standout (and most ridiculous) takeaways from this table are the Sunderland assets. Dan Ballard (£4.7m) is their primary DefCon-amassing asset of late and poses significant attacking threat, with three returns to his name already. 

But it’s Omar Alderete who, in fact, has the most consistent four-point floor – and he’s the cheapest of the lot at just £4.0m. His defensive contribution data isn’t necessarily amazing, but he seems to save his DefCon points for when the Black Cats concede.

Sunderland have only conceded more than one goal four times in Alderete’s 13 games – often meaning you either get the clean sheet points (with a chance of DefCon) or a four-point game. Regis Le Bris’ side are particularly good at home, with Ballard averaging 8.7 points per start. He’s also hit DefCon points five times out of six starts at the Stadium of Light. 

This budget-friendly Sunderland defence are perfect backup/rotation assets over the hectic Christmas schedule. They all play every game and you can easily start them amidst other rotation fears in your squad, or count on them to be autosubbed in with a credible score (should a player you start be rested over the period). 

TALISMAN THEORY: THE FESTIVE PERIOD

We’re about to hit four Gameweeks in just two weeks; it’s going to be chaotic and rotation will be inevitable. As FPL managers, we can’t expect to dodge every bullet and we can’t control what the (real) managers are going to do. The best approach is to aim to build up a strong core of players that you can quite happily count on to play each game. 

In general, defenders are least likely to suffer from rotation over the festive period. Particularly the centre-backs and most notably our DefCon assets. It’s the attacking players that we need to be most wary of – especially at the clubs with the greatest squad depth. 

It’s important to remember that all FPL managers will be in the same boat with the chaos, so it’s not the end of the world when a player is benched/rested! However, there are a select number of talismanic players that you can confidently assume will play every game. 

Picks like Antoine Semenyo (£7.7m), Jarrod Bowen (£7.6m) and Morgan Rogers (£7.2m) are your surefire bets for consistent minutes. They’re all in pretty good form, too, so you can’t go wrong with any players that fit this bill, even when the fixtures aren’t the greatest. It’s at least assured that they’ll play!

Matheus Cunha (£8.0m), of course, takes on an interesting role now, given Man United’s lack of options. Bruno Fernandes (£9.3m) would have been on this list but in his absence, a lot of the responsibility will lie on Cunha’s shoulders. Their attack is depleted but the fixtures are good and you can bet he’ll be heavily involved in anything good going forward.

United played quite well in the second half against Aston Villa without Fernandes, so I’m somewhat optimistic about their attack. Even Mason Mount could be a nice short-term punt at £5.9m, taking a large share of the set pieces in Bruno’s absence. 

Liverpool are in a similar predicament with their limited attacking numbers, so the likes of Florian Wirtz (£8.1m) and Hugo Ekitike (£8.9m) should be fairly assured of minutes. They’re rightly popular at the moment. With their excellent upcoming home fixtures, Ekitike seems almost essential for the next few weeks.

The player pool appears quite small. But the priority is simply not just the undroppable assets. You can still confidently assume most first-team players will start three out of four games during this period. There are plenty of points in that field! The key point really is facilitating a strong balance between these key players and the rest. You don’t want a full team of players that have a strong chance of rotation, but more so a strong core of players that you can confidently rely on playing. 

BIG HAULS FOR LITTLE OUTPUT

Finally, one thing that seriously impressed me last Gameweek was the Declan Rice (£7.2m) haul. He achieved 11 points for winning a penalty! It’s clear how consistent and valuable an asset Rice is this season, but perhaps this particular haul just showcases how much potential he has.

He’s not notoriously an explosive player. But it’s quite clear he doesn’t need to be to accumulate great returns. He’s exceptional in the Bonus Points System (only Fernandes and Erling Haaland (£15.1m) have more). Given that things like tackles, clearances etc all contribute to bonus points, it often means that any DefCon hit coincides with a great bonus score – so the potential is there for a double whammy. Add a single assist to that and suddenly the points really start to rack up!

The question is, are there any more players like this? 

Below is a table of assets with high DEFCON accumulation, ordered by their BPS score.

There are a lot of notable names here that excel in all fields.

THE CASE FOR ADAM WHARTON?

Adam Wharton (£5.0m), in particular, really catches the eye at just £5.0m. I think he’s one that is flying under the radar.

Note, his recent form in particular:

• He has hit 10+ defensive contributions in six consecutive games (meeting the threshold on four occasions) and has by far the highest xGI amongst DefCon midfielders less than £6m. 
• He had a similar return to Rice when he amassed nine points vs Fulham. It was just a single assist with no clean sheet, alongside DefCon and two bonus points. 
• With Palace currently stretched offensively, they are looking to Wharton for creativity and his recent attacking numbers reflect that. They have three home games in the next four Gameweeks and he could accumulate some nice points for doing very little. If you need a budget-friendly option, the value is off the charts with this one!