Our ‘Buy, Keep or Sell’ article returns for the final time this season, as we consider various transfer dilemmas for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers in Gameweek 38.
These are the players with the most transfers in/out ahead of Sunday’s deadline:
| Player | Transfers in (round) | Player | Transfers out (round) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowen | 132,960 | Thiago | 121,763 |
| Anderson | 99,074 | J Pedro | 102,542 |
| Gibbs-White | 89,128 | Wilson | 91,111 |
| Szoboszlai | 78,410 | Cherki | 69,300 |
| van Dijk | 72,243 | Gyokeres | 66,060 |
| Calvert-Lewin | 66,200 | Rogers | 62,708 |
| Senesi | 60,734 | Semenyo | 56,632 |
| Osula | 56,567 | Watkins | 46,147 |
| Kroupi Jr | 54,333 | Rice | 43,710 |
| Richarlison | 51,821 | Welbeck | 42,422 |
Whether some of these moves are a good idea remains open to debate – and that’s exactly what we’ll be weighing up in this article.
We’ll try to avoid repetition with previous weeks. For example, Joao Pedro (£7.4m) and Harry Wilson (£5.9m) were both ‘sells’ in our last piece, so we’ll not cover them again.
JARROD BOWEN
Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) is in poor form, but if anybody is going to step up for West Ham United in Gameweek 38, it is most likely him.
It’s pretty simple for the Hammers on Sunday: they must beat Leeds United to have any chance of avoiding the drop, and hope Tottenham Hotspur lose to Everton.
Bowen hasn’t scored since January.
It’s no surprise, given that he hasn’t received one Opta ‘big chance’ in the subsequent 13 matches, having been outshot by 16 other forwards in that time.
However, he has still averaged 4.8 points per start, thanks to nine assists, six defensive contribution (DefCon) points and four bonus.
Bowen will also play 90 minutes barring injury, takes penalties and features prominently on corners/free-kicks, marking him out as a decent Gameweek 38 transfer option.
Sunday’s opponent, Leeds, have nothing significant to play for.
They haven’t exactly looked ‘on the beach’ in Gameweeks 36 and 37, but they have conceded 35 shots in those two matches.
They are also bottom for key passes conceded from their left flank (12) in that period, so an assist from Bowen’s side of the pitch is quite possible.
VERDICT: BUY
ELI JUNIOR KROUPI
Bournemouth are guaranteed European football of some variety next season.
However, a point at the City Ground in Gameweek 38 would confirm sixth place, which could mean a spot in the Champions League.
So, with plenty on the line, Eli Junior Kroupi (£4.7m) is naturally picking up some interest.
The budget forward has now started six matches in a row, firmly assuming the No 10 role in Andoni Iraola’s 4-2-3-1 formation.
In that run, he’s found the net four times – including a penalty against Crystal Palace – and averaged 74.3 minutes per appearance.
“Junior has grown so much this season, so much. It was difficult when we started the pre-season to envision a little bit how he has evolved. He has found another position, he has given us a lot of things apart from the goals.
“We know his finishing is top, he’s never going to lose this, but he’s a much more complete player. And that has allowed him to play a lot more minutes and take the chances like today.” – Andoni Iraola on Eli Junior Kroupi, via Bournemouth Echo
As for Nottingham Forest, they have been really poor at the back since achieving safety, with eight goals conceded in their last three matches across all competitions.
Given the opponent, plus Kroupi’s recent output, there is no reason not to buy one of the division’s most in-form forwards.
VERDICT: BUY
VIRGIL VAN DIJK
Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) showcased his offensive capabilities once more in Gameweek 37, with two headed goals at Villa Park.
The Dutchman has now found the net six times since the turn of the year, the most of any Liverpool player.
However, Brentford aren’t the best team to face in this context, as they have conceded just five set-piece goals all season, the fewest of any team.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have looked particularly shaky at the back recently.
Arne Slot’s men have conceded eight times in their last three matches, with Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) summing up their frailties during his post-match interview just last week.
Van Dijk could, of course, provide DefCons, and for many Fantasy managers this week, they likely face more pressing concerns than the Dutch centre-half.
That said, if you find yourself in the luxury position of having several free transfers banked, there are likely better defenders to back than van Dijk.
VERDICT: DON’T BUY + POTENTIAL SELL
IGOR THIAGO
Given Liverpool’s shoddy backline, is Gameweek 38’s most-sold player actually someone to retain?
Igor Thiago (£7.3m) has had a superb season, with 22 goals in 37 matches.
Those successful efforts are backed up by a high volume of shots (82) and shots in the box (78), 11 of which have arrived in his last six matches.
As for Brentford, they sit ninth in the Premier League table following their 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace last week.
They will therefore travel to Anfield on the final day knowing they must win to have a chance of finishing eighth and qualifying for Europe.
We could see a more front-foot approach from Keith Andrews’ men, then, who won the reverse fixture 3-2 back in October, with Thiago on the scoresheet.
“The one thing you can guarantee from our team is they give everything. We’ve had a very special season which could become even more special next weekend.” – Keith Andrews
Admittedly, Thiago’s route to points is pretty much limited to goals, but as Brentford’s penalty taker, he could be a hold for the final day.
VERDICT: KEEP
RICHARLISON
Richarlison (£6.4m) has been one of Tottenham Hotspur’s standout players since the appointment of Roberto De Zerbi.
The Brazilian has banked a goal or an assist in three of his last four matches.
His solid underlying numbers further indicate that he can excel on the final day, too.
Under De Zerbi, Richarlison has averaged a shot every 27.4 minutes, a faster rate than any other Spurs player.
Crucially, nearly all of those attempts have arrived inside the penalty box:
The Toffees have conceded two or more goals in each of their last six matches. They are also at the wrong end of the table for expected goals conceded (xGC) in that timeframe.
So, if you are looking for a differential forward for the final day, Richarlison could be the one.
VERDICT: BUY
ARSENAL PLAYERS
Rotation is a very real concern for Arsenal players this week, as Mikel Arteta could give rests to, or manage the minutes of, the likes of Gabriel Magalhaes (£7.3m), Declan Rice (£7.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) ahead of the Champions League final.
The Spaniard did not reveal his plans in Thursday’s pre-match presser, creating a tricky situation for Fantasy managers, particularly if we don’t get any line-up hints before Sunday’s deadline.
David Raya (£6.2m) and Viktor Gyokeres (£9.1m) might be ‘keeps’ in that scenario.
A goalkeeper transfer probably shouldn’t be a priority on the final day, unless you don’t have a playing backup.
As for Gyokeres, he might actually have a decent chance of starting at Selhurst Park, given that he was restricted to only 17 minutes of playing time against Burnley.
That said, you need to consider if there is enough upside even if Gyokeres does start, especially if Arteta rotates and uses the likes of Noni Madueke (£6.8m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) in wide areas.
For Saka, it could be time to sell him with the distraction of a European final, as there are probably many better one-week punts elsewhere in Gameweek 38.
VERDICT: IN THE MAJORITY OF INSTANCES, SELL
