Having sealed the Premier League crown courtesy of a 1-0 win over Palace at Stamford Bridge last weekend, Chelsea have little left to prove this season. With no record points tally in sight (even if they win the final three matches, the Blues will fall three points short of the 95 points they accrued in 2004/05), it remains to be seen whether the new champions can retain their levels of motivation for the last three matches of the current campaign.
With that in mind, we’ve taken time out to examine how Mourinho’s title-winning outfits fare after clinching league titles. Is there evidence that they take their foot off the gas or, conversely, are they afforded the license to express themselves and attack the opposition?
Furthermore, we examine whether past evidence suggests that Mourinho is likely rotate his key players and enact a myriad of changes now that the title is in the bag.
With funds at a premium in the lead up to Arsenal’s double Gameweek 37, these questions are more pertinent than ever. We cast an eye over the Special One’s tactics during his first spell at Chelsea, and subsequent stints at Inter and Real Madrid, to assess the situation from a post-title-winning perspective.
Results
The first port of call is to look back at the records of Mourinho’s teams up to their title-winning Gameweek and compare that with their displays in the remaining league matches that season. We’ll avoid Mourinho’s formative years at Porto and instead concentrate on his records in Europe’s top five leagues here. Also, it’s worth noting that Inter’s 2010 title win went down to the final round of fixtures and is therefore of no relevance to our assessment.
Chelsea, 2004/05
The Blues clinched their first league title under Mourinho in Gameweek 35 of the 2004/05 campaign after beating Bolton 2-0 at the Reebok Stadium. Up to and including that fixture, Chelsea had succumbed to a solitary loss (27 wins, seven draws, one loss), scoring an average of 1.91 goals per game and conceding an average of 0.37 goals.
After locking horns with the Trotters, Chelsea recorded two wins and a draw, netting an average of 1.66 goals per game and letting in an average of 0.66 goals – a backwards step on both accounts when contrasted with their season averages.
Chelsea – 2005/06
While the disparities in the previous campaign are slight, Chelsea’s post-title-winning results in 2005/06 expose a definite downturn in form.
Prior to capturing their second league trophy in as many years – via a 3-0 home win over Manchester United in Gameweek 36 – Chelsea had fallen to just three defeats all term (29 win, four draws, three losses), scoring an average of two goals and conceding 0.55 goals per match. In subsequent road trips to Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United, however, they recorded consecutive 1-0 defeats.
Much like the current Premier League season – in which Chelsea have only been breached twice in their previous six outings – the Blues tightened up just prior to clinching the title, conceding just one goal (average conceded: 0.16) in six match-ups.
Inter Milan 2008/09
Casting an analytical eye over Mourinho’s spell in Italy, Inter’s squad won the Serie A after AC Milan lost their Gameweek 36 tie, making it impossible for i Rossoneri to catch their arch rivals. In the 35 fixtures leading up to that point, Inter registered three defeats (23 wins, nine draws, three losses), scoring an average of 1.77 goals per game and conceding an average of 1.30. Like Chelsea’s 2005/06 side, Inter’s rearguard held firmer in the six matches prior to being coronated, conceding just one goal per game on average.
I Nerazzurri’s concluding trio of league ties were an aberrance for a Mourinho side. Inter’s defence became sloppy, shipping 1.66 goals per game, yet further up the field they increased their scoring with an average of 2.66 goals per game, which perhaps reflects a more expansive mindset with the league crown in the bag.
Real Madrid, 2011/12
Finally, we arrive at Mourinho’s victorious 2011/12 Real Madrid squad. Los Blancos bagged their first La Liga trophy in four years after besting Athletic Bilbao 3-0 at the San Mames Stadium – the second fixture of a double Gameweek 36. Counting that tie, Madrid tallied an astonishing 115 goals (3.2 per game average) while conceding just 30 (0.83 per game average).
In the six Gameweeks before Gameweek 37, Madrid showed no signs of battening down the hatches, conceding at an identical rate (0.83 goals per game) to their season as a whole and scoring at an even greater rate (3.66 goals per game). The two fixtures following the Bilbao head-to-head delivered a similar narrative, with a 2-1 win away to Granada and 4-0 home win over Mallorca serving up equatable stats.
Team Selection
From a Fantasy perspective, ascertaining any trends in team selection could be an invaluable tool.
Considering the likes of Eden Hazard, Branislav Ivanovic and John Terry have featured in every league clash so far, rotation is a constant threat – a notion heightened by Hazard’s midweek holiday snaps. To that end, do Mourinho’s past title-winning exploits reveal a tendency to rest regulars ahead of the summer holidays?
Chelsea, 2004/05
Immediately following Chelsea’s victory over Bolton in the 2004/5 season, Mourinho benched stalwarts Didier Droba and Petr Cech, with the pair playing no further part that term. John Terry soaked up the adulation during Charlton’s visit to the Bridge, but then he, too, was sidelined for their final pair of match-ups. Having named three changes for that first post-title encounter, Mourinho then made a single alteration to his starting XI in each remaining fixture.
Chelsea, 2005/06
The Blues’ 2005/06 season brought about far more radical reshuffling, though, with Mourinho making eight and then seven changes to his starting XI in the final two fixtures. Once again, Cech, Drogba and Terry hung up their boots for the rest of Chelsea’s run-in. In addition, the Blues boss made three substitutions at half-time over the two matches, drafting in fringe players to help the cause.
Inter Milan 2008/09
It’s a similar story with Mourinho’s Inter side. Having made three changes in the first fixture after their title win, he opted for seven alterations to the starting lineup in the next two. Three substitutes were used in each match, with Mourinho welcoming back the bulk of his first XI for their final match of the season against Atalanta.
Real Madrid, 2011/12
Mourinho’s Madrid side took on a totally different complexion following their Bilbao victory. Only Cristiano Ronaldo retained his place in the side for the La Liga giants’ trip to Granada, while Mallorca’s visit to the Bernabeu Stadium prompted another nine alterations to the teamsheet, with the regulars earning their berths back.
Conclusion
Given the relatively small sample size of matches, it would be remiss to reach any concrete conclusions from the records observed after Mourinho’s sides clinched the title. Nonetheless, it’s perhaps telling that in all four of those campaigns they conceded more goals on average in their remaining fixtures, as compared to the season as a whole. Moreover, only two clean sheets were awarded throughout those 10 matches (0.2 shut-outs per game), which represents a decline on Mourinho’s average across those four full seasons (0.49 per game) – food for thought, perhaps, for those managers who’ve invested heavily in Chelsea’s rearguard.
The Blues’ 2005/06 campaign lays claim to the most significant reversal of fortunes. Clearly, eight changes in both matches served to weaken their first XI, which culminated in the two shock defeats. To a lesser extent, the same can be said of Inter’s finish to the season, given that they fell to one of their four losses in that final trio. The worry here is that neither team had any other commitments on their radar, having both been knocked out of the Champions League at the Round of 16 stage and not reached the finals of their respective domestic cups. Madrid – who witnessed the heaviest rotation of the quartet – also fall under that banner, raising concerns that Mourinho could adopt a similar approach this season.
That being said, one might predict that Mourinho will be loath to field a second-string XI for Liverpool’s visit on the weekend, in light of the calibre of the opposition. Subsequent match-ups against West Brom (away) and Sunderland (home) stick out as more likely targets for rotation, though, and it would be a surprise if Thibaut Courtois wasn’t afforded a rest. The Blues boss could be out for revenge against the Black Cats, though, given they ended his unbeaten Premier League home record in the corresponding fixture last season. All things considered, history does suggest Mourinho is prone to rotating first-teamers to the detriment of the side’s performances. Whether this year will exist as an outlier remains to be seen.
