The Numbers Game – 2014/15 Review – Sherwood’s Villa

Crystal Palace and WBA "Janus" Appraisal

Here's the draft for the next article. As usual, comments from WBA and/or Palace fans (or those that know the clubs well) will be welcomed and taken into account when the article is revised. And if you don't want to read a long post please skip over.

Next up we look at 2 teams that had significant alterations of fortune after mid-season manager changes - 10th placed Crystal Palace (48 points) and 13th placed WBA (44 points).

When Alan Pardew took over from Neil Warnock at Palace in January they had taken 17 points from 20 PL games and were in 18th place having only scored 18 goals. After Pardew arrived they took 31 points from the remaining 18 games, a big improvement that was largely due to a more attacking style of play. Scoring 27 goals in those games, they amply fulfilled Pardew's initial promises that his team would "put the ball at risk" and play with proper wingers.

The defensive performance under Pardew did not improve, however. In fact they only kept 2 clean sheets under him having kept 5 under Warnock. Pardew teams are not usually noted for defensive solidity, so it will probably be the Palace attacking assets that FPL managers will be more inclined to look at for next season. "We have a new attacking set-up and we're more expansive now" commented Pardew towards the end of season.

WBA were almost the polar opposite in terms of how their approach changed but similarly effective in terms of results. Tony Pulis took over a team in 17th place that had taken 18 points from 20 games but he concentrated on defensive shape and focus. WBA then took 26 points from the remaining 18 games during which they managed a startling 10 clean sheets (having achieved 6 clean sheets in 20 games in the first half of the season).

The goals scored column for WBA showed little change - 19 in 20 games under Irvine and 19 in 18 games under Pulis. So it will probably be the WBA defensive assets that will be of most interest to FPL managers (with a couple of possible exceptions). "If I owned a PL club I'd employ Tony Pulis", said Jose Mourinho recently. "He is always managing clubs that want to survive and want stability and he's a guarantee to achieve what the club wants."

THE DEFENCE

The focus here is firmly on WBA assets. Ben Foster is not expected back from injury until October but Boaz Myhill was an able deputy and although his contract expires in July, WBA have an option to extend by a further 12 months. There is also talk of interest in bringing Wayne Hennessey of Palace in to give Myhill some competition in the first 3 months of the season. Had one GK played the whole season for WBA they would have amassed 159 PL points, enough to make them the top scoring FPL goalkeeper outright. So the double WBA GK option will be one that many FPL managers will consider. Much will depend on price, however, and it is hard to predict how FPL will handle the fact that Foster will miss the first 3 months of the season.

In terms of outfield defenders, Joleon Lescott and Craig Dawson would appear to be the most reliable candidates for next season as things stand, although there may be an outside chance that Chris Brunt (often deployed by Pulis at LB) could be listed as a defender. Lescott's 127 points put him on a par with premium priced defenders (he was 2nd highest rated defender on value) and even a predictable rise to 5.5m would leave him as a realistic option. Dawson was almost ever present under Pulis and a likely rise in price to 5.0m would leave him as a short list candidate as well. The stats show little difference between Lescott and Dawson on attacking potential but Brunt's assist potential could make him very attractive if re-categorised.

For Palace, GK Julian Speroni and defender Scott Dann would appear to be the best prospects but Palace's defensive instability under Pardew makes them appear as poor options next to WBA assets. Dann had better attacking numbers than Dawson or Lescott but not enough to compensate for the lack of clean sheets.

THE MIDFIELD

The focus shifts to Palace here and there are plenty of options to consider. Jedinak, Ledley and Macarthur tended to be preferred for the central midfield positions but none produced outstanding returns and are less likely to be considered by FPL managers unless one of them comes into the 4.5m price bracket. Amongst the attacking midfielders there are plenty of good options, however, notably Wilfried Zaha, Yannick Bolasie, Jason Puncheon and Jordon Mutch.

Puncheon was the stand out option in terms of key passes and chances created and was described as Palace's "best player since my arrival" by Pardew in May, when Puncheon signed a new 4 year contract. With plenty of set pieces as well, Puncheon could remain a viable FPL contender though his price seems likely to rise to 6.0m or 6.5m. Bolasie led the way amongst the Palace attacking midfielders for shooting stats, although his inability to convert chances into goals was an apparent weakness. They player says he is working hard on that, however, and his late season form (including a hat-trick against Sunderland) coupled with Pardew beginning to deploy him more centrally could make him an exciting prospect for 2015/16. Likely to be priced around 7.0m, Bolasie would be in perfect 4th midfielder territory for many FPL managers.

These comments about Puncheon and Bolasie are not to say, however, that Zaha and Mutch are options to dismiss. Zaha's statistics over the season were not far away from Bolasie's, although he didn't have such a big FPL profile, and Mutch showed what he can do given an injury free run with his 7 goals and 6 assists in the 2013/14 season with Cardiff. Unlikely to be priced so high for FPL as Bolasie and Puncheon, Zaha and Mutch could also be worthwhile options if establishing themselves as 1st choice players next season.

For WBA it is hard to see any midfielder that FPL managers will be rushing to have in their squad unless they are priced at 4.5, suitable for a bench midfielder. The fact that Brunt outscored the rest of them despite playing half the season at left back says it all really, though his goalscoring record in previous seasons indicates that he could be a viable option at around 5.5 if handed a more attacking role. As a defender he'd be fantasy gold; as a midfielder perhaps not so much.

STRIKERS

Strangely enough, for all Palace's attacking potential the striker position for them was a mixed bag. Glenn Murray, Dwight Gayle and Fraizer Campbell all had short spells of success that didn't last and it's not surprising that Palace are being heavily linked with strikers this summer, including Demba Ba and Loic Remy, both of whom previously played under Pardew at Newcastle. Certainly a good, sharp striker at the front of Palace's creative midfield would be an option well worth looking at.

For WBA the situation is clearer. Brown Ideye and Victor Anichebe have not done enough yet to convince that they will be 1st choice players let alone score enough FPL points to make them realistic options. But Saido Berahino had a break out season with 14 PL goals and was very much WBAs main man. There have been links with other clubs but they seem to have quietened down recently and Pulis is on record as wanting him to stay. Even though he's probably due a price hike to 7.0 or 7.5 after his 148 FPL points last season (6th highest scoring forward) he could well justify that kind of price if settled at WBA. And should he move to a more creative club his FPL prospects could be even better.

A hattrick of Community Articles has just been published

Here's the latest in RuthNZ's season review series - this time he casts his eye over Swansea and Stoke
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/06/10/swansea-and-stoke-reviewed/

The Sarjeant has been taking a look at clean sheet potential among the top four sides.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/06/10/clean-sheet-analysis-the-top-four/

Can a dead team with no changes made throughout the season beat the real life tinkerings of a Fantasy manager. Red Lightning investigates.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/06/10/the-optimal-dead-team-squad-201415/