In this research I’ve been looking in depth at fixtures to focus more on how teams are likely to perform when up against different types of opposition. Key teams to look out for include those who could be potentially fixture proof, by excelling against the very easiest sides and toughest teams.
Fixture Analysis
To update on the latest stats in the above chart I looked at the number of games each team had against the following:
Attack:
- Games against the worst defences (five teams with the most shots in the box conceded)
- Games against the best defences (five teams with the fewest shots in the box conceded)
Defence:
- Games against the worst attacks (five teams with the fewest shots on target)
- Games against the best attacks (five teams with the most shots on target)
The graph on the right-hand side presents a counterweight to the fixtures providing a ratio of a team’s shots on target vs the shots in the box they have conceded. MCI and ARS in particular have shown to be so far ahead of everyone that their assets should be relatively immune to fixtures.
In this further chart I’ve taken a look at defence in more detail.
Some takeways:
- Everton – As widely known Everton have the best fixtures in the next 10. They play four of the five weakest defences and none of the strongest. Interestingly for people considering their defence, however, they have three games against the worst attacks but counteract this with two games against the best attacks. Also they are the fourth worst team so their defence may not have the consistent run of clean sheets their overall fixture strength indicates.
- Both Manchester United and Liverpool have decent attacking and defensive fixtures but the net numbers are not that high.
- The West Ham attack should potentially be avoided but their defensive assets could be worthwhile. Although, again, they are sixth highest for shots in the box conceded so may not keep many clean sheets even playing four of the worst attacks.
- Any Norwich assets should be moved on or benched for the majority of the next 10,
- Swansea and West Brom face a tough time also on both fronts. Both these teams are middle of the pack for shots in the box conceded so it maybe okay to hold onto a defensive asset especially as the Pulis effect in particular can defy the figures. Swansea attackers Befatembi Gomis and Andre Ayew, however, could continue to struggle with four games against the best defences in the next 10.
Player dashboards
I have also developed player dashboards as a quick way to get some insight on the best players from a team and whether they show leading stats. As Everton have the best fixtures, look at their candidates here.
The most obvious candidate is Romelu Lukaku. The shots on target per 90 in the bottom right corner shows that he is Everton’s best choice for goals behind Kevin Mirallas who has struggled for minutes. The bottom left graph looks at his per 90 stats vs a benchmark of the best in the league. Overall his stats are fairly good with big chances and shots in the box being particularly good. Most concerning is his rate of shots on target however. His shooting trends shown in the top right have been okay as he has averaged three shots a game with high degree of variance showing his trolling ways. Having scored five goals to 4.25 expected goals (explanation here) he is slightly over performing but should be a good choice over the next 10.
Ross Barkley (full detailed stats here), on the other hand, has good shot numbers but overall shots in the box and big chances are far away from being league best. Shots on target and chances created are reasonable for his price and if you can manage a free transfer he seems a reasonable choice with his fixtures but I would not be rushing to buy. He has also over-performed in relation to his expected goals so far.
The next table looks at whether any Liverpool or Manchester United attacking players are worthwhile.
With Memphis Depay potentially losing his place, Anthony Martial is next best for shots on target per 90. As I have said before his stats show a very high conversion rate and not much else. Shot numbers average 1.0 and most stats except big chances are very poor. Have to side with Mark over Granville on this one.
The biggest problem with United assets is it really doesn’t get much better. Both Rooney and Mata still don’t look good on the numbers. Very slim pickings.
On the other hand for defence they are the third and fourth best defensive teams for shots in the box conceded so investment there could be worthwhile.
Philippe Coutinho’s stats look impressive. His shots in the box is right up there with league’s best so he is definitely not shooting from distance. His target rate is not bad either. He could definitely be a candidate for a Sergio Aguero or Harry Kane-type explosion.
Tottenham have some great stats and some really good targets with none better than Harry Kane (detailed stats here). The stats for Kane suggested it for a while and the hat-trick delivered. All the shot stats look at league best level, his shot numbers are consistently good and he is still below his expected goals numbers suggesting even some more reversion to the mean to come. A really good candidate this week or after the Arsenal game.
Hope you found an alternative look at the fixture list useful. The main fixture list, especially the season-long ticker in the FFScout Members area is great and very useful for picking specific entry and exit points. If you liked the dashboards and want to see other players let me know in the comments and I’ll do another set at a later stage.
