Are Vardy and Mahrez Fixture Proof?

FPL GW17 Scout Picks - Bus Team

Verbruggen

O’Reilly
Senesi
Hincapie

Semenyo
Saka
Wilson
Foden

Ekitiké
Haaland
Thiago

Kelleher
Rodon
Clyne
Kroupi

GW17 Chip Poll

Price Change Predictions

Risers

Fallers

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Wilson	FUL	5.6m	101.2%	Very Likely
Ekitiké	LIV	8.6m	84.9%	Likely
Gvardiol	MCI	5.9m	94.4%	Maybe
Bowen	WHU	7.5m	95.2%	Maybe
Foden	MCI	8.8m	81.8%	Maybe
Marc Guiu	CHE	4.2m	89.2%	Unlikely
Watkins	AVL	8.5m	84.4%	Unlikely
Truffert	BOU	4.5m	81.1%	Unlikely
Keane	EVE	4.6m	75.4%	Unlikely
Verbruggen	BHA	4.4m	71.6%	Unlikely
Haaland	MCI	15.0m	67.6%	Unlikely
Ballard	SUN	4.6m	68.3%	Unlikely
Andersen	FUL	4.6m	69.8%	Unlikely
Mitchell	CRY	5.0m	68.5%	Unlikely
Raya	ARS	6.0m	65.7%	Unlikely
Dalot	MUN	4.4m	61.4%	Unlikely
Tete	FUL	4.5m	61.9%	Unlikely
B.Fernandes	MUN	9.3m	53.1%	Unlikely
Petrović	BOU	4.5m	58.9%	Unlikely
Livramento	NEW	4.9m	61.7%	Unlikely
Casemiro	MUN	5.5m	60.8%	Unlikely
Guéhi	CRY	5.3m	52.3%	Unlikely
Dúbravka	BUR	4.0m	56.4%	Unlikely
Cullen	BUR	5.0m	55.8%	Unlikely
Cherki	MCI	6.5m	40.8%	Unlikely
Van den Berg	BRE	4.5m	50.5%	Unlikely
Cash	AVL	4.9m	51.0%	Unlikely
Romero	TOT	5.0m	50.0%	Unlikely
Igor Jesus	NFO	5.8m	48.2%	Unlikely
James	CHE	5.6m	48.2%	Unlikely
Flemming	BUR	5.3m	47.7%	Unlikely
Rogers	AVL	7.1m	34.7%	Unlikely
L.Miley	NEW	4.4m	40.5%	Unlikely
Cunha	MUN	7.9m	37.8%	Unlikely
Mount	MUN	5.9m	40.0%	Unlikely
Wilson	WHU	5.8m	39.2%	Unlikely
Pickford	EVE	5.5m	39.8%	Unlikely
Leno	FUL	4.9m	38.3%	Unlikely
Trossard	ARS	6.9m	36.8%	Unlikely
Sánchez	CHE	4.9m	35.1%	Unlikely

Connecting to LiveFPL...

We can't connect to LiveFPL right now, check back shortly

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Woltemade	NEW	7.4m	103.1%	Very Likely
João Pedro	CHE	7.3m	101.4%	Very Likely
Enzo	CHE	6.6m	98.3%	Likely
Barnes	NEW	6.3m	92.0%	Likely
Rodon	LEE	4.1m	100.2%	Very Likely
Mayenda	SUN	5.3m	100.1%	Very Likely
Elanga	NEW	6.6m	100.3%	Very Likely
Muniz	FUL	5.4m	100.2%	Very Likely
Gudmundsson	LEE	3.9m	100.2%	Very Likely
Nallo	LIV	3.8m	99.9%	Maybe
Jordan	BUR	4.0m	99.5%	Maybe
Sels	NFO	4.7m	94.9%	Maybe
Irving	WHU	4.4m	96.3%	Maybe
Neave	NEW	4.4m	98.1%	Maybe
McKenna	BOU	4.0m	94.5%	Unlikely
Okafor	LEE	5.5m	94.3%	Unlikely
Bentley	WOL	4.0m	93.3%	Unlikely
Balcombe	BRE	4.0m	93.6%	Unlikely
Broggio	AVL	4.5m	92.6%	Unlikely
Piroe	LEE	5.0m	93.4%	Unlikely
Barnes	BUR	4.3m	92.8%	Unlikely
Colwill	CHE	4.8m	91.9%	Unlikely
Kulusevski	TOT	6.4m	90.7%	Unlikely
Gakpo	LIV	7.4m	85.5%	Unlikely
Morgan	BRE	4.4m	92.0%	Unlikely
Tasker	BHA	3.9m	89.2%	Unlikely
Worrall	BUR	3.9m	88.5%	Unlikely
Nørgaard	ARS	5.2m	88.5%	Unlikely
Danso	TOT	4.3m	87.5%	Unlikely
Munetsi	WOL	5.4m	86.2%	Unlikely
Webster	BHA	4.4m	85.7%	Unlikely
Coleman	EVE	4.3m	85.7%	Unlikely
Benitez	CRY	4.0m	85.9%	Unlikely
Aina	NFO	4.7m	83.8%	Unlikely
Mosquera	ARS	5.4m	81.4%	Unlikely
McAtee	NFO	5.1m	85.4%	Unlikely
Bevan	BOU	3.9m	83.1%	Unlikely
Tzimas	BHA	5.3m	82.4%	Unlikely
Robertson	LIV	5.8m	81.3%	Unlikely
Welbeck	BHA	6.5m	78.3%	Unlikely

Connecting to LiveFPL...

We can't connect to LiveFPL right now, check back shortly

FPL Fixture Ticker

Watchlists

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Raya Martin	ARS	C
No Change	Alisson	LIV	C
No Change	Donnarumma	MCI	C, Sus
Up	Kelleher	BRE	C, Vs
Down	Ramsdale	NEW	C
No Change	Dubravka	BUR	C, £

Last updated: 13 Dec, 2025 10:16am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	van Dijk	LIV	C
No Change	Jurriën Timber	ARS	C, Inj
No Change	O’Reilly	MCI	C
Up	Andersen	FUL	C
Up	Marc Guehi	CRY	A
Up	van den Berg	BRE	C, Vs
No Change	Thiaw	NEW	A
No Change	Milenkovic	NFO	C
No Change	van Hecke	BHA	A
No Change	Mukiele	SUN	C, £

Last updated: 13 Dec, 2025 10:28am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Saka	ARS	B
No Change	Bruno Fernandes	MUN	A
No Change	Foden	MCI	A
No Change	Semenyo	BOU	C
Up	Szoboszlai	LIV	C
No Change	Minteh	BHA	B
No Change	Bruno Guimarães	NEW	A
No Change	Schade	BRE	C, Vs, Sus
No Change	Anderson	NFO	B, £

Last updated: 13 Dec, 2025 10:34am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	B
No Change	Thiago	BRE	A, Vs
No Change	Mateta	CRY	C
Up	Ekitiké	LIV	B
Down	Welbeck	BHA	C, Rest
Down	Woltemade	NEW	B

Last updated: 13 Dec, 2025 10:43am

Community Submissions

12 November 2015 24 comments

Jose's Magic Omelette

While all the statistics point to the Newcastle game next week being a banker for owners of the Leicester duo (and in particular for Jamie Vardy owners while he is temporarily first in line for penalty duties) the following six fixtures (MUN, swa, CHE, eve, liv, MCI) look considerably more challenging. There has been much debate about whether Riyad Mahrez and Vardy will be able to maintain their current rates of accruing goals, assists and bonus points throughout this run of fixtures.

Last week’s article analysed Mahrez and Vardy’s extremely successful starts to the season. As both seem to be benefitting from the extremely attacking style of play Leicester have been practising it seems essential to assess whether the duo are getting less chances to score goals against more defensively resilient teams (such as Watford) before deciding what to do with them ahead of this tricky run. Following on from the Watford game, this article tries to piece together whether we should expect a reduction in returns for either player in the upcoming games.

This content is restricted to Chief Scout Members. Click here to register and get access to industry-leading stats from Opta and StatsBomb including Defensive Contributions data, the Rate My Team tool, Points Projections, 150+ Member-only articles, exclusive Team Reveals, a customisable Season Ticker, two Transfer Planners... and more!

24 Comments Login to Post a Comment

J0E
10 years, 1 month ago
Wowzers. Thanks for this. Really good to see how they are likely to perform in some of those trickier ties on the horizon.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
1. FPL Daniel
  10 years, 1 month ago
  Wonderful article. Thanks
  Open Controls
  - Permalink
  Login To Reply
Kings of Lyon ★
10 years, 1 month ago
Selling Vardy on WC and this is making me doubt my whole team. I bought him at 6.9 so wouldnt lose too much.

I think im going to risk going without him. The fact he's a bit of a scally makes this decision easier.

Mahrez stays though.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
1. Beavis
  10 years, 1 month ago
  I can't imagine getting rid of either just because of their price. They allow you to do so much more with the rest of your team.
  Open Controls
  - Permalink
  Login To Reply
  1. Kings of Lyon ★
    10 years, 1 month ago
    Ighalo may not have the stats that vardy does but that extra 1.7 helps strengthen other areas
    Open Controls
    Permalink
    Login To Reply
    1. Ziegler1988
      10 years, 1 month ago
      Are you planning to play Ighalo every week? I wouldn't want to GW17-21
      Open Controls
      Permalink
      Login To Reply
      1. BbBb
        10 years, 1 month ago
        Yeah he has a bad run from 17-21 - I'm planning on keeping him but either playing 4-4-2 or 4-5-3 over that period depending on how/if I make room for Kun
        Open Controls
        Permalink
        Login To Reply
        
        BbBb
        10 years, 1 month ago
        4-4-2 or 3-5-2 even 🙂
        Open Controls
        Permalink
        Login To Reply
Hamstergod
10 years, 1 month ago
Great Article! Might even affect my captain choice this week 🙂
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
Woy of the Wovers
10 years, 1 month ago
Great article and a lot of work clearly went into it. It seems petty to mention it but the part linking goals to wins/losses is sadly the wrong way round. However the bulk of the article is on whether Leicester, Mahrez, Vardy perform against strong/weak defences and that, to me, is the best way of looking at this.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
1. Jose's Magic Omelette
  10 years, 1 month ago
  Totally agree, that's why I refer to it as "backwards logic"!
  Open Controls
  - Permalink
  Login To Reply
Doolittle
10 years, 1 month ago
Good stuff JMO, I see absolutely no reason to ditch either while they're performing as they are.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
pompeyfan
10 years, 1 month ago
Good research and well put.

I still think Leicester will finish in the bottom half and Vardy revert points output will regress to the norm. The figures don't take into account teams wising up and learning how to counter teams.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
☆Khaz
10 years, 1 month ago
Excellent article, a very interesting read!
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
roscola
10 years, 1 month ago
Brilliant stuff. On the last article, I promised to look into the weak/tough defence split and failed so you went and did it for me, much better than I would have done. Great job, man.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
djpete
10 years, 1 month ago
Jose, any thoughts on my Lanzini / Mahrez rotation? No one is taking it seriously so far...
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
Mark-O
10 years, 1 month ago
Very useful. Great job for the thorough analysis!
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
FPL_Sponge
10 years, 1 month ago
First season as a FFS member and by far the best/most useful article I have read. Thanks JMO. Was planning on transferring Vardy out for Ighalo, but am now looking at other ways to acquire the Aguero funds.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
1. Woy of the Wovers
  10 years, 1 month ago
  I shall call you The Wise One.
  Open Controls
  - Permalink
  Login To Reply
Ratatouille
10 years, 1 month ago
Great article Jose!
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
tm245
10 years, 1 month ago
Really nice work. I have submitted part one of a two part article on captaincy decisions, and hadn't thought to use xg as one of the measures for part two. This line of thinking is very helpful. Cheers.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
Hibbo
10 years, 1 month ago
Fantastic piece.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
Kenzoblu
10 years, 1 month ago
Great work, thanks for the time
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
FPL P0ker PlAyer
10 years, 1 month ago
Really liked the ideas behind your approach. Great article.

One immediate caveat I'd issue regarding Vardy's goal tallies vs strong defences though, is that it his average will have been distorted by the 2 goals Gomes of Watford gifted him. That said, this doesn't detract from the results shown by the xG model.
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply