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The Numbers Game – Goal Threat On A Budget

4 November 2011 462 comments
Mark Mark
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In this latest Members article, we investigate the low-to-mid price striker market, examining those forwards available for 7.5 or less in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game. We put creativity and assists to one side, focusing solely on goal threat to examine shots per minute and shots on target per minute data, comparing the popular budget strikers to the performance of the heavy-hitters – Robin Van Persie, Luis Suarez, Wayne Rooney and Sergio Aguero.

The article helps to identify the prime long-term targets within the sub 7.5 price bracket and those who perhaps represent a sound short-term punt in the coming weeks.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

462 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Surfreak
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    I liked Lawro's comments about Wellbeck scoring 2 against his former club (Sunderland - loan).
    Great budget(ish) pick for the week if he starts!!

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    1. Scroobius Mac
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Think he will start, he was benched for a reason the CL.

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    2. notidaho
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      how much gametime will hernandez get? i need manU cover but cant afford roonpig (who also played 90 mins midweek)

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      1. Johnny Unitas
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        I was considering a move for Pea but he has been used sparingly to this point, playing a lot of 60's, I have Rooney and am going to chance keeping him this weekend see how things go.

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      2. Kostja
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        Pretty sure Hernandez and Wellbeck will start. Hell probably play at least 70-80 if fitness, barring injuries/ red cards.

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        1. notidaho
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          ye i thought that but fergie says rooney is 'first choice' striker. then again i spose if he is rested it would be games like these...

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          1. KOKAK
            • 15 Years
            14 years, 2 months ago

            The pig never rest unless he is injured.

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  2. notidaho
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Hey does anyone recommend a second transfer for me? thanks

    Krul (vorm)

    boswinga enrique (wilkinson N.Taylor)

    VDV mata silva Moses (dyer)

    adebayor rvp(c) Agbon

    1.7 in bank. 0 free transfers

    Thinking Adebayor->Hernandez for ManU cover or Agbon->Dzecko if Silva's got a knock.

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    1. beepingmeeping
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I also have RVP, Ade and Agbon up front. Gotta stick with Ade with his upcoming fixtures. I'd stick with Agbonlahor after a goal and 2 assists today (and Dzeko not at all a guaranteed starter).

      We actually have almost identical teams. I have 11 of your players (and all the good ones). I'm thinking Krul to the SUN keeper for the next few weeks, since NEW aren't going to be getting CS's for 3 weeks.

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  3. yash
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Is Kompany to P.jones worth a 4 pt hit? as if both silva and Tiote dont play then i will have to play Gabbidon

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    1. Johnny Unitas
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Kompany is only out for one game and is a guaranteed starter, no.

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      1. Bonny Scott
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        WOW WOW WOW, I thought Kompany was out for 3 games?

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        1. Johnny Unitas
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          Hold on, Metro said 1 game suspension, FPL says out until 19th November which is their next game, my bad then it seems.

          I would still hold Kompany if you have made some money on him.

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          1. Waldaz
            • 16 Years
            14 years, 3 months ago

            Nope you're right, should have been 'until 5th November' instead.

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          2. 1966 was a great year for E…
            • 15 Years
            14 years, 3 months ago

            It's up to but excluding 19th November, so he can play on 19th Nov. They really could make it clearer...

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      2. yash
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        I will wildcard nxt week,so will get him back and dont u think Gabbidon could get minus points or 0 this week?

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    2. adams_6
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      For one game? No way.
      First rule of FPL. Don't take a hit.

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      1. KOKAK
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        This is a bullshit rule!!! If it was a rule, it never would have been made permissible in the game. Ask all those who are smart to spot certain weeks where taking hits would make huge returns. Amateur comment indeed.

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  4. Scroobius Mac
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Vorm or Kenny to play this week?
    Not a huge ammount in it - neither will keep a cleanie so who will win the balance of -1s from goals conceded and +1s from getting peppered with shots?

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    1. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Go Vorm IMO

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    2. Henry Hill
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      I'm a QPR fan and I say Vorm, Liverpool aren't as high scoring as City!

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      1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        oi! did you get your Java problem sorted?

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        1. Henry Hill
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          Ya my brother helped me with it, its difficult stuff

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    3. Cruicky
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Oh dear, Vorm at Anfield or Kenny home to Man City.

      I'd always go with the home team, but in this case, go Vorm as Liverpool were very wasteful at home to Norwich and Ruddy played very well there as well.

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    4. Scroobius Mac
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers all, SuperVorm to the rescue.

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  5. Menly
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Afternoon lads, I have a little problem 🙂

    Vorm,ruddy

    Barnett, R Taylor, Walker (kompany, N Taylor)

    Silva, VDV, Eagles, Murphy (Sinclair)

    Rooney, RVP, sturridge
    0.7 in the bank
    1: I am planning on benching Sinclair, but should I transfer him to sessegnon anyway to beat a possible price rise?

    2: should I do kompany > Jones?

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    1. lester
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      i'd keep sinclair but maybe bring in jones(good fixtures)

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      1. Menly
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        Ok cool. Should I do Murphy > sess?

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        1. lester
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          i wouldn't. murphy takes free kicks and pens.
          but it's your team!!

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  6. BBC_TF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Hi guys, I need to sort my defence out once again. I have only one free transfer this week.

    Would you do:

    1/ Simpson + Bassong -> Evans + Wilkinson
    2/ Bassong -> Wilkinson

    Should I consider selling Bosingwa? He could get a CS away at Blackburn this weekend!

    Thanks anyway for your help

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    1. David
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I would do bassong for wilkinson. Newcastle have hard fixtures coming but keep simpson in this week to stop the 4 point fine. also not sure how long evans will stay in the starting line up for but atm he seems a decent bargain.

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  7. Screaming Midget
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    What's people's thoughts on Suarez?

    He has a great fixture coming up at home to Swansea, yet people are talking of shipping him out.

    He has a tricky double vs Chelsea MAN CITY but we know he can score vs any team.

    Then a nice overall run of: Fulham QPR Aston Villa Wigan ROVERS NEWCASTLE Man City STOKE Bolton Wolves

    By which time it'll be Winter WC time.

    I'm thinking of sticking with him for the foreseeable.

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    1. Cruicky
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Getting rid after this week for my GW11 WC.

      Then will get back for GW15 - QPR(H).

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    2. Kostja
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      I think hes just to expensive. my bet for the dissapointment of the season since all were hoping him to blow up, but hell probably just do OK.

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    3. teto
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      im thinking the same thing. He usually doesnt go away with bigger teams, and against Chelsea he's sure to get chances and goals. the only toughie is City, but you never know. Im going to keep

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    4. SuperMario
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      im thinking of selling afte this g/w in order to afford Baines!!?

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  8. Scroobius Mac
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    For the first time ever I can now proudly call myself a Baines owner. I wonder how it will go.

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    1. zoltar74
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      too expensive for me... but it cld be fruitfull.... i wish u all the best...

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    2. Uncle_Sams_Army
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Overpriced? 😉

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      1. Johnny Unitas
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        They will concede so you need him to assist or score, good luck!

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        1. Scroobius Mac
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          Possibly, (hopefully) only takes a penalty for him to register a decent score and even in their tough fixtures he's been statistically threatening.

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    3. MrJefferson
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      was pondering on it myself,gonna see how this week goes but

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    4. Timmy Cahill Rules
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      He has been a season long pick for me since day 1.

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      1. jimnastics
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        Ouch.... awful choice.

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        1. Scroobius Mac
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          At me or TCR?

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      2. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        Done well out of that one, aint you? 😉

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        1. Timmy Cahill Rules
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          Yes like staying loyal with RVP when everyone said get rooney

          Win some lose some

          Baines will come good

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    5. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Welcome to the(exclusive) club! 😉

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  9. Valar(Keith)
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    are petrov and sturridge dropin tonight? cant check in college

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    1. Timmy Cahill Rules
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Sturridge will drop

      Silly knee jerkers the lad is quality.

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      1. adams_6
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        I hope he does, thinking of getting him in next week for Gabby

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      2. Screaming Midget
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        Agree with that.

        Just because he came off early due to Kompany being sent off, and then had a goal ruled out and came away with 2 points in their last game.

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  10. Captain Robert Hatch
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    I hate keeper transfers!

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    1. Kostja
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      What would you do with this team?

      Begovic(Vorm)
      Simpson, Bosingwa, Enrique(Komp, Wilkinson)
      Silva, Walters,VDV, Ramsay(Dyer)
      Aguero,RVP,Sturr,

      My current options.
      A) dont do anything-seems like the best plan, but I am going up against the leader in my H2H who has taken a hit so I feel worried not doing anything to my team.

      B) Komp and Bego out for De Gea, Evans- huge punt on United, but my gut is telling me NEW will concede without Tiote and Obertan who gets little credit for hes defense IMO, so Id feel good playing 2 united defenders instead of Simpson and Bego with a tired stoke team.Worry is if united let one in im ffed.
      C) Bring in Moses instead of Dyer, just in case Silva does not play.

      Thoughts???

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      1. lester
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        why are you so certain Evans will play week in week out?

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  11. rohan
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    David Silva, Danny Welbeck, and Sergio Aguero... what are the chances all 3 will start??? i

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    1. Dynamo Chicken
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      66% I would say

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  12. Gabriel Agbonlahor
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    RMT...

    howard (ruddy)
    jones evans wilkinson (simpson) (nailor)
    vdv silva ramsey drenthe (allen)
    rvp(VC) aguero suarez(C)

    it is worth captaining suarez over rvp vdv aguero silva this week??
    last chances for him then suarez âž¡ ade next week

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    1. zoltar74
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      i captained suarez for Liverpool game at home vs Norwich, then spewed, then picked myself up off the floor and traded him in and used that extra money for VDV....

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    2. Cruicky
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Not over RVP, no.

      RVP(C), Suarez(VC).

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    3. DarPaC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Same front line as me. RVP as Captain for me......if Aguero wasn't a doubt he'd be next choice with Suarez 3rd. Suarez could explode into action any week.............or he could score another 2 points with 0 bonus due to so many shots off target ðŸ™

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    4. beepingmeeping
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Why would you want to captain Suarez against CHE away?

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  13. Henry Hill
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    How long is Mignolet out for? Sunderland have some nice fixtures after United match

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    1. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Possibly until March apparently ...

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    2. Brian (Not the Messiah)
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      you still got a java problem?

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    3. adams_6
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Fractured eye socket. Months. He's toast. Westwood instead though? Gordon is always injured.

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    4. Henry Hill
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Months?! A h feck, though he just broke his nose. I'm stuck with Given now.

      Ya Bobsunlce i got sorted with that eventually

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      1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        it's not too difficult once you understand what the computer needs to hear... It pays the bills anyway 😉

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        1. Henry Hill
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          Are yoiu an expert on it? Why didn't you reply to me when i was looking for help!!!

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          1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
            • 16 Years
            14 years, 3 months ago

            I did but you weren't online anymore! I just missed you! yeah I'm a senior developer, 8 years experience!

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  14. Forest4Life
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Will Ade or Nasri drop 2 night

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    1. adams_6
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      I hope they both drop from a great height on to spiky metal railings.

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  15. notidaho
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    gona take a hit getting out adebayor for manU cover. welbeck or chickpea? got bare cash

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    1. Forest4Life
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Im thinking same. Ade nasri to chick arteta or to roopig and song

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      1. notidaho
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        id go ramsey if i was you. chickpea maybe more natural goalscorer and overall gametime but for the price differrence now im thinking welbeck has had a few 90mins recently.... gah can't decide.

        or i could go dzecko since silva has a knock

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  16. MrJefferson
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    planning on doing sturridge to little pea next week, and getting mata or fat frank in for chealsea attack,should i do it now to avoid the drop?is the hit worth keeping the 0.1 value?

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  17. Kostja
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    says:

    What would you do with this team?

    Begovic(Vorm)
    Simpson, Bosingwa, Enrique(Komp, Wilkinson)
    Silva, Walters,VDV, Ramsay(Dyer)
    Aguero,RVP,Sturr,

    My current options.
    A) dont do anything-seems like the best plan, but I am going up against the leader in my H2H who has taken a hit so I feel worried not doing anything to my team.

    B) Komp and Bego out for De Gea, Evans- huge punt on United, but my gut is telling me NEW will concede without Tiote and Obertan who gets little credit for hes defense IMO, so Id feel good playing 2 united defenders instead of Simpson and Bego with a tired stoke team.Worry is if united let one in im ffed.
    C) Bring in Moses instead of Dyer, just in case Silva does not play.

    Thoughts, anyone???

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    1. Screaming Midget
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Well I think B and C are poor choices and by looking at your side, saving the transfer sounds a decent option.

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      1. Kostja
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        I think so too, would do it too. Its just the fact that I wanna take down my best mate who is my main rival in My H2H. Just gonna stay sensible and stick with it. Stoke to get first CS away I hope 😀

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    2. SuperMario
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      a

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    3. Kostja
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks guys for putting my mind right.

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  18. Timmy Cahill Rules
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Thoughts on Bale will he finally deliver good fpl points regularly or just flatter to deceive ?

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    1. MrJefferson
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      he will tease u all season,then when u sell him, boom, hat trick

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      1. staystrapped
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        +1

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        1. SuperMario
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          +11

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          1. Guinney
            • 14 Years
            14 years, 2 months ago

            Ha sold him last week, boom, scored 2 goals ðŸ™

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  19. cechmate
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Looks like I'm going to do the very unsexy transfer of Jones in for Bosingwa.

    BORING

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  20. cechmate
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Silva transferred out by 10k today :0 madness

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    1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      the dreaded yellow flag!

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    2. Screaming Midget
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Hopefully his flag will be removed on Sunday meaning 1 drop max.

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    3. Kostja
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      If he plays there wont be any drops IMO.

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      1. Screaming Midget
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        Aye you're probs right there I think.

        Be nice for him to just miss the drop and he plays so a lot less own him.

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    4. andy85wsm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Good!

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  21. Timmy Cahill Rules
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Which combo would you pick for week 12 onwards

    A. Bendy , Dempsey and Bale - 3 nailed on starters but not big hitters

    or

    B. Nani , Adebayor and Allen - 2 nailed on starters and big hitter nani with rotation risk

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    1. Killitzer
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      am going for Bendtner next week. Sturridge out or ade depending on this gw

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  22. Killitzer
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    I have both Silva and Milner in my team for some unknown reason. Would love to replace Milner with Mata but do not have the cash so will hold fire and save the transfer till next week.

    Question is should I play Milner and Silva and bench Walters in case one of them does not play
    OR bench Milner and play Walters and Silva

    Cheers

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    1. David
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      tough one! i would play walters. if milner does not start he will always come on which could be annoying. if silve is not fit he is likely to not feature at all and then milner will come in anyway and if silva is fit then you have yourself some fine points 😉

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  23. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Any members care to tell me how Graham fares? 🙂

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  24. lekuasimi
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    This is my current team:
    MID: Ramsey , VDV, Nasri
    FWD: Balotelli, RVP, Rooney.

    I am looking to sell Balo for Welback. what do you think and any other suggestion?

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    1. Shakhtar Senseless
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      I'm in exactly the same boat;

      can't decide between Sturridge, Welbeck or Bendtner. All have lovely fixtures, but apart from the Danish lump, the others aren't nailed on

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  25. Shakhtar Senseless
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Wildcard time unfortunately.

    Evans or BAE

    Drenthe or Sess

    Sturridge/Welbeck/Bendtner

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  26. footballfollower
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    These are my best budget picks for Gameweek 11, see what you think...

    http://footballfollower.com/football-blog/fantasy-football-top-value-picks-week-11/

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    1. Screaming Midget
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      I'd sooner have Allen over Gower.

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  27. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Going to have to get Ward out this week but not sure who exactly for. I always seem to find myself with a 5th defender who just takes up a place in my squad, because I have two that I play every week and two others that rotate. With the Wigan home game I'm giving him a chance and going 4-3-3 this time, then hopefully McCauley from WBA holds down a place.

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    1. DarPaC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      if he's your 5th then you should be looking true bargain basement. There's a lot of love for Wilkinson st the moment and he's only 4.0

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    2. Screaming Midget
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 3 months ago

      Why get rid when Wolves face Wigan at home?

      I'd keep him for his final week.

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      1. Screaming Midget
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 3 months ago

        Sorry didn't finish reading... just saw the 'out this week' bit.

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        1. DarPaC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 3 months ago

          ooops me too

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  28. Kzz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 3 months ago

    Will vermalen start tomorrow? Considering switch with Kompany...

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  29. royals forever
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Hi Guys

    I really need you help on deciding which one of the following options to go for GW 11?

    A Jones
    B Ferdinand
    C Olsson

    Any help would be appreciated

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    1. Kzz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Jones. Ferdinand may not start. Jones will be on right back. Guaranteed clean sheet....

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  30. KOKAK
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Ba...............

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