Spot the Differential
14 May 2016 1881 comments
James Barnes James Barnes
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We head into Gameweek 38 with many mini-leagues still on the line, as Fantasy managers seek some last-minute inspiration. This time around, Liverpool’s midweek goal hero is joined by City’s up-and-coming young striker and Southampton’s Senegal marksman in our quest for differential success.

Christian Benteke

Understandably, Jurgen Klopp is primed to name a second-string side for Liverpool’s trip to West Bromwich Albion, given that Liverpool are schedule to clash with Sevilla in the Europa League final on Wednesday. Daniel Sturridge appears unlikely to play any part at The Hawthorns, which paves the way for Christian Benteke (8.0) to spearhead the Reds’ attack. Despite notching just 180 minutes across his previous five appearances, the Belgian frontman mustered three goals and one assist, with a last-gasp midweek leveler at home to Chelsea sure to boost his confidence.

Although Benteke was only granted a 16-minute cameo against the Blues, he charts joint-third for attempts (nine) and joint-second for shots inside the box (seven) among forwards in his last two outings. Taking the season in its entirety, Benteke’s goal frequency (one every 173 minutes) is only bettered by five counterparts who’ve amassed at least 1000 minutes of pitch time. The same can be said of his shot frequency (26.4), which places sixth under the same parameters.

Liverpool’s concluding match-up pits them against a Baggies outfit that’s recorded just five clean sheets at home all term. In addition, only six teams have conceded more big chances on their own turf (30). Liverpool’s attack on the road also measures up favourably – Tottenham Hotspur are the only team that’s chalked up more attempts (272 vs 252) than Liverpool, underlining their swashbuckling style away from home under Klopp.

Kelechi Iheanacho

In the wake of back-to-back braces against Stoke City and Southampton – which boosted his tally to seven goals (695 minutes) for the season – Kelechi Iheanacho (4.8) shot onto our radar as a tantalising budget forward. Having started each of the last three, the Nigerian marksman will be savouring the prospect of taking on a Swansea outfit that’s missing key first-team regulars such as Ashley Williams, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Lukasz Fabianski.

Razor-sharp finishing has been Iheanacho’s most striking attribute, illustrated by the fact that he ranks top among all forwards for shot-conversion rate (31.3%). Moreover, only Sergio Aguero (98 minutes) lays claim to a superior goal frequency (110.7). Illustrating how central he’s become to the Sky Blues’ attack in recent fixtures, Iheanacho ranks joint-second for touches (181) and second for touches in the final third (95) among forwards since Gameweek 35.

Swansea managed convincing victories over Liverpool and West Ham United in their last pair of outings, yet Man City will be heartened that only three teams shipped more goals (nine) in their previous quartet of league ties. The Swans also surrendered the joint-fourth-most shots inside the box (38) and the second-most big chances (13), obliging defensive form that could play into the hands of the league’s top-scoring attack.

Sadio Mane

Given that Sadio Mane (7.4) has recovered from the virus that forced him off early against Spurs, it would be remiss for us not to shine a spotlight on the 5%-owned winger.

Mane – who netted a three-minute hat-trick in the final home clash of last season – boasts five goals in four starts and next faces a Crystal Palace team that will surely be shuffled ahead of their FA Cup final date with Manchester United next weekend.

Scrutinising the underlying stats, Mane ranked joint-top among midfielders for shots on target (seven) across his previous four appearances. It’s also worth noting that, despite registering just 281 minutes, he accrued three more penalty-box touches (31) than any of his midfield rivals. In home matches, the Senegalese wide man ranks second among midfielders for shots inside the box (35) and joint-second for shots on target (18).

Mane has five double-figure hauls to his name this term, which highlights his potential for explosive returns against an Eagles rearguard that places joint-bottom for shut-outs (two) and fourth for goals conceded (31) since Gameweek 20. Alan Pardew’s men will certainly be tested by a Saints attack that bagged 10 goals in their previous trio of home encounters and placed top for goals (11) across their last four outings.

  1. royals forever
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Is Clichy nailed on for Man City this weekend

    1. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Kolarov doubtful but not 100% ruled out. More than likely clichy will play tho

  2. AllyS
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Who to bench - carroll or tadic?

    1. SwissGuinness
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Carroll

    2. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Carroll!

  3. SwissGuinness
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    My guts tell me to to this...

    Carroll out for Deeney (-4)

    Yes or no ?

    1. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Maaaybe, depends if you're chasing and need to take a risk.

    2. Khal Drogba
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      No

    3. Gideons Rolling Another One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I wouldn't.

  4. Miro
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Who to sell for Giroud?

    A) Carroll
    B) Defoe
    C) Neither

    1. SwissGuinness
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Carroll

    2. AllyS
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Defoe

    3. Gideons Rolling Another One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      c

    4. Miro
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks, much clearer now 🙂

    5. Biancazzurri
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      B

  5. _Gunner
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Will Lukaku finaly score?

    1. FPL Mentor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      yes

  6. Khal Drogba
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Any reason there was no Big Numbers article this week? Wouldn't mind seeing Spurs stats without Dembele.

  7. kenzo.
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    The Deadline is tomorrow right?

    1. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      You can make changes to your team right up until 15 May 14:00.

      1. kenzo.
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        thanks.... a lot of questions on here today

  8. madness
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Lanzini & Kane -> Tadic & Giroud for 4 point hit worth it?
    Or Lanzini & Lukaku -> Tadic & Long?

    1. Miro
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Just Lanzini -> Tadic if you can afford it

      1. madness
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Nope. 1.0 short of that

    2. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Don't take a hit

  9. FISSH
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Ddg
    Bellerin, fuchs, Rose, Lovren, ward
    Sanchez, Iwobi, Firmino, payet, tadic
    Aguero, kane, defoe

    Anything worth a -4? I've already won my ML so don't mind taking a hit.. Thinking De Bruyne or mane?

  10. TheBabyfacedAssassin
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Can I get a vote, please?
    A) William > Mane / Tadic
    B) Firm and Carroll > Mane/Tadic and Martian (-4)

    1. FISSH
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      A

      1. TheBabyfacedAssassin
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks. With Mane?

    2. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      A, I prefer Tadic but Mane might go mental again.

    3. @FPLMason
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      A

  11. PlayPercentage
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Worrying about how certain these three are to start:
    Rojo-Martial-Antonio

    Only have PvA as sub. And he might be rotated.

    1. merin
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Martial is pretty certain. Netted twice last game and is critical for Uniteds last game

      1. PlayPercentage
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Worried about the "tight hamstring" when he withdrew in the warm up against Norwich in GW37.

    2. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Martial should start. Rojo probably, but who knows.

      Not sure about Antonio - Doos around?

  12. merin
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    GTG? Or would you field someone else?

    DDG 
    Bellerin Smalling Cresswell
    Sanchez(c) Tadic Payet Iwobi 
    Aguero(vc) Kane Martial

    (Robles Noble PvA Fuchs)

    FT: 0, ITB: 1.7

    1. merin
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      What do you guys think?

    2. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      g2g I reckon

      1. Slartibartfast
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Maaaybe Noble over Iwobi

  13. Les Bleus
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    I got Tadic over Mané this week. Was that a mistake?

    1. merin
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I did it too. Tadic is more consistent

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Also, a Mané haul usually means Tadic in the points. I hope.

    2. Badluck Jonathan
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Good move. Tadic more likely to score big

  14. 1314
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    a) Kun + Kane (-4) , 3 -4-3
    b) Kun + Tadic (-4) , 3-5-2

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      b

  15. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    What do you guys do to 'save' a season for future?
    So you can look back on it?

    I guess most take snapshots of their 'points' screen from every gw!?
    I've never done it, but will after next week(after I googled how to).
    Do you do anything else?

    1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      And once again, a big thanks for all the answers......

  16. Tshelby
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Get
    A) Kane
    B) Kun

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      b

    3. 1314
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Kun

  17. jimmybob
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    tadic or mane in?

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I went Tadic. But it's a coin toss.

    2. 1314
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Tadic

    3. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I went Mane

    4. Badluck Jonathan
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Depends if you want consistent points or a chance of a huge haul. In either case, tadic is the best option

    5. Mingles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Had the same problem so went both!

  18. gunner267
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Hi Guys,

    Am I G2G

    Schmeichel
    Bellerin, Rose, Moreno
    Sanchez(c), Payet, Firmino, King
    Defoe, Kane, Aguero

    1. gunner267
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Bench is Hennessey, Daniels, Simpson, Willian

    2. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Firmino and Moreno may not play / get full games

  19. JJeyy
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Please help...

    Forster / Hen
    Targett / Alde/ Fosu-M / Wolly /Huth
    Ozil / Sanchez / Firmino / Iwobi / Noble
    Kane / Sturridge / Aguero
    1FT
    That is my team. I am 30 points off the lead, and have no chips left. I know there is little hope left, but do you guys see any move plausible to try and get me big points?

    1. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Sturridge -> somebody, Vardy probably.

    2. 1314
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Sturridge to Long/Deeney

  20. Flynny
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Chaps.....good to go here?...already used my ft to get mane...

    Got 2m itb......good to go or anything worth a hit?.....chasing rival who is ten points ahead...

    Darlow (robles)
    Smalling bellerin Gabriel (pva Simpson)
    Sanchez (c) hazard payet mane (lanzini)
    Kun Defoe Carroll

    Thanks

    1. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Looks good, wouldn't take a hit on that!

    2. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Don't take a hit. Captain a differential...

      1. Slartibartfast
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        I'd only captain a differential if his rival has practically the same team.

        He could make up the 10pts with his other players like Hazard, Mane - even Gabriel if his rival only has one Arsenal def.

        1. Flynny
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 6 months ago

          Cheers fellas....rival doesn't have Sanchez so def keeping armband on him!

  21. FootballGeorge
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Mahrez(CHE) or Firminho(WBA) -> Tadic ?

    Mahrez means I have to go Tadic , Firminho means I could go Mane

    1. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I'd sell Firmino as he may not play at all or only get a cameo.

      1. FootballGeorge
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks, bring in Tadic or Mane ?

        1. Slartibartfast
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 6 months ago

          I like Tadic more as he's been really consistent recently. Mane could bag a hattrick or blank completely - who knows!

  22. jimbobmij
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Need some help with this one

    I have a 32 point lead and am 90% sure my rival has brought in and will captain Giroud.

    I can only bring in Giroud if I take a -4 to drop Carroll and Iwobi (to free up Arsenal space) and bring in some 5.0 or less midfielder who will be benched. This would mean I'd be playing Defoe.

    Or I could just do Carroll to Vardy for no hit and play Iwobi ahead of Defoe.

    If all I care about is beating my rival, is it better for me to take the -4 and bring Giroud in to cover his differential in case Giroud explodes?

    Such a difficult situation, all opinions welcome.

    1. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Don't take a hit. Can't rely on Giroud to repay a hit. Just use FT to get SOT player in imo.

      1. jimbobmij
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Giroud in for a -4 isn't mathematically correct. But let's say Giroud scores 2 and assists one by some miracle, and my rival has him captained, that's 16 points x 2 = 32, which covers my entire lead on my rival. Should I not just bring Giroud in to ensure that doesn't have a chance of happening? He can't win if his squad is the same as mine.

    2. Gonzola
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      If you have a similar team overall I would keep caroll. If not get Giroud if you're sure your rival has him.

      1. jimbobmij
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Our teams are quite different. His team is much worse than mine on paper, but you never know, crazy things could happen.. Feels like I should bring Giroud in just to play it safe, even though it's not mathematically the correct decision.

        1. Gonzola
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 6 months ago

          I know what you mean. Sometimes you just need to cover the explosive players your rival has, even though you may likely lose points overall.

  23. Gonzola
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Migs 100% rested tomorrow? No other playing keeper and a very tight mini league. Worth a -4 for de gea? Or not worth the risk for a Likely 2 points gain? These 2 points could make a big difference.

    1. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      As a Utd fan I can see us conceding tomorrow

      1. Slartibartfast
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah I agree, wouldn't take the hit.

  24. Mr Alex
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Wrist looked at anewpla.com and seen that this season I've had at least 15 captain fails, could be argued up to as much as 20 depending on what you regard as a fail. That's surely an unusually high number of fails?

    I think this is the main thing I've learnt this season: Don't try and be silly with captain choices, go for the obvious in form player with a decent fixture if possible.

    1. Mr Alex
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Just*

    2. TheTinman
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Website doesn't work

      1. Sylas
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        http://anewpla.net/fpl/

  25. Kun Tozser
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Carroll > Iheanacho for -4 ?

    1. Caravagio
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      wouldnt have thought so

    2. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Nope he may not even play

  26. Caravagio
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Play 1 A) Nasri
    B) Moreno
    C) Lennon

  27. FPL Maldini
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Rival has Alderweild but I'm 58 points ahead, do I...

    A) do Smalling to Alder (block him) I have DDG already

    B) transfer out Milner for someone

    1. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      B, So'ton mids the popular choice

    3. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      b

      1. FPL Maldini
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        I can't afford Tadic with Milner money

        1. Kun Tozser
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 6 months ago

          Davies

  28. youzef
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    De Gea
    Bellerin Van Aanholt Baines
    Brady Payet Townsend Sanchez
    Carroll Rashford Aguero
    Bench: Mignolet Firmino Cresswell Daniels

    1 FT remaining
    1) Carroll out for one of Long/Giroud
    2) Brady out for one of Tadic/Mane
    3) Firmino out for De Bruyne

    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      3 first
      -4 maybe for #2
      play Carroll

      1. youzef
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Shall I drop rashford to accomodate both transfers? Cheers mate.

  29. Heels_Over_Head
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Seeking:

    Pundit Of Punts
    Newman-cini
    Borghino007
    Ellipsis
    Zasa
    Jaffalicioius!
    Arvin
    TM245
    Moosie The Staggie
    Slimboyslim
    Fuzzy Warbles
    Holmes
    dmhomag
    Gazpilicueta
    John Terry's Dog (a dog like no other)

    Please report to the Knocks & Niggles commissioner's office

  30. MagnetBPS
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    DDG
    Bellerin Gabriel Smalling(Simpson)
    Hazard Tadic Sanchez(C) Townsend Payet
    Defoe Aguero

    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Question or statement?

    2. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Nice team