Seemingly each Gameweek a different player emerges as an essential purchase after they produce a huge Fantasy Premier League points haul.
Dele Alli, who scored his third brace in a row in Gameweek 20, is the latest to join an elite bunch of must haves, and this week alone has already attracted 300,000 new FPL owners.
But are those investing in such huge points haulers like Alli acquiring a superb source of points over the next few Gameweeks or are they just chasing tails.
I thought I’d take a look at four players who have all been subject to intense transfer activity following a stellar Gameweek score to find out if chasing points really a good strategy this season.
Philippe Coutinho – Gameweek 1
What did he do? The Liverpool schemer ran the show away to Arsenal, scoring a brace and earning maximum bonus points to return a 15 point haul.
How many new owners did he attract? His ownership within a week increased from 423,848 to 1,043,541 to become one of the game’s highest owned players.
What did he do over the next four fixtures? From Gameweek’s 2 to 4 he struggled, bringing in just five points across all three matches and only playing for 15 minutes against Leicester in Gameweek 4. In Gameweek 5 his assist and two bonus points finally rewarded his half a million new owners with a seven point FPL return. Gameweek 6 was when he really hit his stride, bringing in his second of three more double digit returns.
Average Gameweek FPL points return over next four fixtures: 3
Verdict: A tail chasing transfer that didn’t yield strong immediate returns but proved to be a good long term option until his injury in Gameweek 13.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic – Gameweek 2
What did he do? The Manchester United scored a brace at home to Southampton and maximum bonus points for the second week in a row to deliver a 13 point FPL return. With three goals in just two fixtures and Hull up next Fantasy managers had seen enough and the big Swede was declared essential.
How many new owners did he attract? His ownership grew from 1,583,486 to 2,044, 184 ahead of the Hull match in Gameweek 3.
What did he do over the next four fixtures? Gameweek 3 marked a reversal in fortunes. He managed just an assist and one goal over the next four fixtures to deliver a mere 14 point total return. It was a slump that lasted until Gameweek 11, when he scored a brace, his first league goals since Gameweek 4.
Average Gameweek FPL points return over next four fixtures: 3.5
Verdict: A tail chasing transfer that didn’t yield strong immediate returns and also proved to be a poor transfer for a further four fixtures.
Eden Hazard- Gameweek 11
What did he do? Against Everton at home the Chelsea midfielder was magnificent, scoring twice, assisting another goal and bringing in a maximum bonus points to take his Gameweek 11 points tally to 19.
How many new owners did he attract? His ownership rocketed by 336,041 ahead of Gameweek 12.
What did he do over the next four fixtures? Over the next four fixtures he delivered just one goal and three bonus points to bring his total from Gameweek 12 to 15 to 19 points, the same amount he scored in that Everton match. His owners had to wait until Gameweek 18 before he delivered another double digit points haul.
A better value move for Marcos Alonso owners would have been to double up on Blues defenders with Cesar Azpilicueta earning 18 points over the next four fixtures, just one point less than Hazard for around 4m less.
The smarter move would have been to note Diego Costa’s consistency not act on Eden Hazard’s explosiveness. The Spaniard earned 34 points over the next four fixtures, to accrue a Gameweek average of 8.5.
Average Gameweek FPL points return over next four fixtures: 4.5
Verdict: A tail chasing transfer that failed to offer an immediate return on investment.
Alexis Sanchez – Gameweek 14
What did he do? Away to West Ham and fielded as a striker the Arsenal midfielder earned one of FPL’s biggest ever Gameweek hauls of 23 points, scording a hattrick and adding maximum bonus and an assist to his tally.
How many new owners did he attract? His ownership grew by 385,666 within a week taking his value from 11.4 to 11.7.
What did he do over the next four fixtures? Of our quartet he has registered the highest average Gameweek return post mega-haul, scoring 23 points over the next four league matches. But he is yet to register another double digit Gameweek score in FPL, with seven points his highest tally, in Gameweeks 16 and 20.
Average Gameweek FPL points return over next four fixtures: 5.25
Verdict: A tail chasing transfer that while didn’t offer strong immediate returns did offer his new owners a consistent scoring asset. Just once since Gameweek 14 did he fail to register an assist or a goal.
Conclusion
Can Dele Alli buck the trend of essential stars failing to live up to their must have status?
In a way he already has, but only for those who were shrewd enough to invest in him before he faced Chelsea.
His ownership increased by 100,254 between Gameweek 19, when he scored his second Christmas brace away to Watford, and Gameweek 20, when his third brace of the festive fixtures arrived.
Those that labelled him essential then have already been rewarded with a 15 point return, more than both Ibrahimovic and Coutinho managed in the next four games following their must have declaration.
But for those anticipating strong returns from now on history suggests they could be disappointed. It is also worth pointing out that his six goal run has come from just six shots on target, a scoring rate that some in the community have suggested is unsustainable.
With West Brom and Middlesbrough at home and Sunderland away in the next four, Alli certainly has the fixtures to prevail but perhaps those investing now may be too late given the experiences of the above quartet of previous must haves.
Finally, the example of Hazard and Costa is worth noting. Could Christian Eriksen be a better target than Alli perhaps? The more consistent Dane has six double digit hauls this season, two more than his English team mate.
