This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.
Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 28’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.
The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.
SUCCESS
What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFScout Captain poll. A monthly average will also be worked out to find the cumulative points to see if this method or the polls are proving to be more successful.
On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:
- Explosive = 10+ points
- Success = 7-9 points
- Average = 4-6 points
- Fail = no attacking returns
With that in mind let’s take a look at the results for Gameweek 28, which due to FA Cup quarter final scheduling only features eight teams.
FORM
| Rank | Player | Total PPG | Goals | Assists | H-PPG | A-PPG |
| 1. | Lukaku | 8.75 | 6 | 2 | 10.75 | 3 |
| 2. | Mane | 8.25 | 3 | 1 | 8.25 | 5 |
| 3. | King | 7.75 | 4 | 0 | 3.5 | 6.75 |
| 4. | Llorente | 5.75 | 3 | 0 | 4.75 | 5.5 |
| 5 | Firmino | 5.5 | 1 | 2 | 8.5 | 1.75 |
| 6. | Sigurdsson | 5.5 | 1 | 3 | 6.5 | 6.25 |
Fixture
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded | Goal attempts in the box conceded | Total |
| 1.5 | Lllorente | Hull (A) | 6 | 9 | 45 | 60 |
| 1.5 | Sigurdsson | Hull (A) | 6 | 9 | 45 | 60 |
| 3.5 | Firmino | Burnley (H) | 7 | 3 | 40 | 50 |
| 3.5 | Mane | Burnley (H) | 7 | 3 | 40 | 50 |
| 5. | King | West Ham (H) | 6 | 5 | 33 | 44 |
| 6. | Lukaku | West Brom (H) | 5 | 7 | 28 | 40 |
Results
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Form | Total |
| 1. | Mane | 3.5 | 2 | 5.5 |
| 2. | Llorente | 1.5 | 4 | 5.5 |
| 3. | Lukaku | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 4. | Sigurdsson | 1.5 | 6 | 7.5 |
| 5. | King | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 6. | Firmino | 3.5 | 5 | 8.5 |
What happens when two options end up on the same score?
| Player | Goals conceded last 4 H or A | Goals scored last 4 H or A | Total |
| Mane | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| Llorente | 7 | 3 | 10 |
Goals conceded in last four opponents’ home or away fixtures + goals scored in players last four home or away games according to the Gameweek fixture.
Taking form and fixtures into consideration, Sadio Mané is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method. The Senegalese forward sits second overall in the form table with a PPG of 8.25 having notched three goals and one assist in his last four Gameweeks. He faces a Burnley side that have conceded seven goals, three big chances and 40 goal attempts in the box in the same timeframe.
Just missing out on the top spot is Fernando Llorente, whilst his total PPG of 5.75 seems him sitting in fourth position in our form table.
According to this method, the Swansea front man has the plum fixture of the Gameweek. He faces a Hull side that have shipped six goals, nine big chances and 45 goal attempts in the box in the last four Gameweeks.
The stats currently show that Hulls’ supposedly newly found defensive resolve has yet to fully materialise.
However, the Tigers have reduced the number of headed goal attempts conceded since Marco Silva took charge in Gameweek 21. Given Llorente is second only to Palace marksman Christian Benteke in terms of aerial threat this season, captaining the Spaniard comes with a slight health warning.
Romelu Lukaku offers this week’s classic form vs. fixture dilemma. The Everton forward sits on top of the form table with a total PPG of 8.75, having scored six goals and earned two assists in his last four starts. However, you could argue this is slightly skewed due to his four goals against Bournemouth in Gameweek 24. The fixture table sees the Belgian sit in last place with West Brom conceding just goals and seven big chances but a mere 28 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame.
Clean Sheet Potential Table
| Rank | Team |
| 1. | Everton |
| 2. | Liverpool |
| 3. | Hull |
| 4. | Bournemouth |
| 5. | West Ham |
