(Long post, I’ve used subheadings)

Hello!
As some of you may or may not be aware, I’ve finally committed to an indefinite break from FPL. However, I have noticed lots of people pondering the Tadic vs Redmond thing on twitter so I thought I’d address it on here - with a bit on the strikers and the full backs too. I hope most of you know me as a ‘realistic’ fan so I don’t tend to talk up players too much - I’ve been historically very slow to Saints based bandwagons. So I hope what advice I provide here is balanced.

Pellegrino’s reputation and style
Much has been said about Pellegrino’s (MP) style and approach and the similarities with Puel’s conservatism (which ultimately cost him his job). Yes, MP’s Alaves team had similar problems scoring goals as Southampton last year. BUT that was an Alaves team tipped for relegation, dealing with a huge number of loanees and second division players, a really cobbled together team. Alaves massively surpassed expectations, Southampton finished 17 points lower on the previous season. Moreover, this season will see the return of Austin to fitness and I would expect significant improvements from Sofiane Boufal who never really adapted after a series of difficult injury periods - both of these factors should improve the attack also.

Yes, MP likes to defend in numbers with his 4-2-3-1, much like Puel, but we should expect to see much faster transitions from a more compact and ambitious team. MP places value on speedy counter attacks and high pressing - this is where there are undoubted parallels with Pochettino, although of course Southampton do not have the same kind of attacking prowess.

What does this mean for Tadic vs Redmond?
I’m thinking Redmond. He’s more committed to pressing opposition, he’s got much more natural pace and would be a better pairing for MP’s style. I also believe that he tends to go missing less than Tadic who blows hot and cold - much to the frustration of FPL players and Saints fans alike. A hot Tadic is better than an average Redmond performance but those, so far, have been infrequent. If Boufal shows notable improvement, he could also place Tadic under pressure as the obvious no. 10 choice.
BUT
If Tadic shows clear pre-season form, he’s worth consideration. Redmond will have had less time training than Tadic which means less fitness and less time to impress MP. Tadic is also notoriously streaky, much like Pelle who came to Saints in the same summer. If you can get Tadic on a streak, he could be worth a decent number of assists.

Strikers?
I’d be leaving these alone for now. Firstly, we’ve been linked with a raft of strikers and sold JRod. This might mean a new man coming into the ranks, or it could mean that Sam Gallagher is set to play a more significant role in the squad. If Pellegrino plays his conventional 4-2-3-1, it’s not clear who from Austin and Gabbiadini leads the line, and there could even be a wide berth for someone like Long. There MAY be opportunity to see MP try a traditional 4-4-2 but it’s unlikely, at this stage, to be a consistent tactic. So I wouldn’t get too carried away if you see him experimenting with that in pre-season. If you pushed me, I’d say Gabbiadini, given that he’s much more mobile than Austin, more personally inclined to do the pressing that MP would probably want from his strikers, and less injury prone.

Cedric? or Bertrand?
Lastly, Cedric, for me, is excellent value and I don’t deem Bertrand worth the extra cash (although Bertrand is probably the better player and has the more consistent FPL reputation). Cedric’s crossing is frequent and accurate and I expect him to do well - the stats reflect a great deal of potential which wasn’t harnessed last season. For all of Puel’s faults, Cedric was one of a number of players (including JWP and Yoshida) who showed great development under his tutelage. Moreover, MP’s formation/tactics place value on the ability of fullbacks and wingers to help transform high pressing defence into attack. The success of Theo Hernandez on loan at Alaves last season is a great example of this. Without EL or Puel, I’d expect to see much less rotation in these areas - an issue which stung a few owners last season and I totally accept the frustration.

But without Van Dijk?
If Van Dijk leaves, I would expect Southampton to sign another CB of decent quality to replace him, potentially even two, given that Fonte was never replaced by an experienced top flight player. That might have a short term impact on CS output but I would expect it to be recovered fairly quickly. Although Van Dijk is probably one of the most talented players I’ve seen in a Saints shirt, I think tweaks to tactics and the continued development of Oriol Romeu could help to counteract any significant drop off.

If you have any other queries - you can find me on twitter. @lucyhighnett