Frisking The Fixtures – Gameweek 3 – The Strong

Southampton and Spurs are among the teams seeking to benefit from favourable fixtures as they prepare for the final match before the first international break of the season.

Our weekly fixture list analysis looks at the next four-to-six Gameweeks and attempts to identify those sides that should be entering or exiting our mid-term plans.

For the key teams identified, we’ll assess their prospects in terms of goals and clean sheets and also pinpoint the stage at which their schedule turns.

This week’s analysis kicks off with those treated with the strongest run of opponents from Gameweek 3 onwards.

Southampton

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The Prospects – Goals
The Saints rank second for total shots over the opening two Gameweeks, with 43, and returned to goal scoring form in the 3-2 win over West Ham United.

Looking ahead on their schedule, the home clash with Manchester United is an obvious sticking point.

But Newcastle United have conceded three goals so far and could provide a very favourable match-up at St Mary’s. Meanwhile, Watford look to be a more attacking side under Marco Silva and could also hand opportunities to Mauricio Pellegrino’s men in the final third.

The Saints’ away matches are also kind.

Despite keeping two clean sheets, Huddersfield Town rank joint-fourth for shots conceded inside the box with 19, while Crystal Palace are joint-third for big chances allowed with five.

The trip to Stoke City could be tough, however. Mark Hughes’ three-man defence looked disciplined in their first home outing against Arsenal.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
There are three clear standout fixtures in this respect.

Newcastle and Palace are still searching for their first goals of the season, while Stoke City have provided a limited attacking threat so far – they have yet to create a big chance.

Also – despite scoring four goals – only two teams have managed fewer close-range efforts than Huddersfield (nine).

Elsewhere, Watford are looking a far more potent side and Manchester United will certainly be expected to score on the south coast given their current form.

The Saints defence has been fairly solid to this point, allowing just two big chances, although we are yet to see how they will fare on their travels.

The Turning Point
Pellegrino’s side remain in ‘The Strong’ selection, with the Man United fixture their only stern test all the way up to Gameweek 12. That looks the point where Southampton assets are likely to be moved out in their droves.

Verdict
Confidence in Manolo Gabbiadini was restored after he opened his account for the season in the 3-2 win over West Ham. Penalty duties boost Dusan Tadic’s prospects, with Ryan Bertrand and Cedric Soares our preferred defenders as we wait to see how the arrival of Wesley Hoedt affects the centre-back pecking order.

Tottenham Hotspur

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The Prospects – Goals
Spurs’ home fixtures, in particular, offer plenty of promise over the coming period.

No team have conceded more shots inside the box (26) than Swansea City, while Bournemouth rank second with 24.

Burnley, meanwhile, shipped two goals away to 10-man Chelsea on the opening weekend.

The away fixtures are tougher, although West Ham have conceded more goals (seven) than any other side.

Spurs’ attacking numbers are positive enough – they rank fifth for both total shots and close-range efforts.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Mauricio Pochettino’s side have already racked up their first clean sheet and have conceded the fourth fewest number of shots inside the penalty area (12).

The Swansea and Bournemouth fixtures look very appealing as both teams are still looking for their first goals of the season, while the Burnley match-up also looks very promising.

Everton and Huddersfield both rank in the bottom five for both shots and close-range efforts so far, indicating that Spurs could certainly earn shutouts from those away trips.

The visit to West Ham may be the trickiest of the three away matches.

The Turning Point
Spurs embark on a four-match run from Gameweek 9 that sees them take on Liverpool, Man United and Arsenal, which could create doubt as to whether we should keep faith in their leading assets – particularly the defence.

Verdict
The upcoming schedule should provide the ideal platform for Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli to flourish, with Ben Davies looking the pick of the defenders. Protracted interest in Paris Saint-Germain right-back Serge Aurier is reducing confidence in the appeal of Kieran Trippier as an option.

Swansea City

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The Prospects – Goals
The Swans have struggled for creativity but, with their fixtures easing, their attackers could stage a renaissance.

The three home matches, in particular, look promising, with Newcastle and Watford both having shipped three goals each over the opening two Gameweeks.

The fact that Palace conceded three goals at home to Huddersfield provides evidence that Paul Clement’s men can find the back of the net on Saturday, although the other two away matches are tests.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Newcastle and Huddersfield have both managed just two big chances apiece over the first two Gameweeks, and in general, the three home fixtures look strong for the prospects of Swansea defenders.

The best chance of an away clean sheet will probably come this weekend against Palace.

Despite registering a shut-out on the opening weekend, Swansea have conceded a lot of chances so far, limiting our confidence in members of their backline based purely on form. Gylfi Sigurdsson’s departure also reduces the attacking potential of both Martin Olsson and Alfie Mawson.

The Turning Point
Barring away trips to Arsenal and Chelsea, Swansea’s fixtures are fairly positive all the way up to Gameweek 17, when they face Manchester City, Everton and Liverpool in the space of four Gameweeks.
Verdict
Tammy Abraham looks one to watch over the coming period, although Fernando Llorente is closing in on a first-team return, while reports of interest in former striker Wilfried Bony could also be a factor. At the back, Federico Fernandez appears the best value route into the defence given his suitability to the Bonus Points System.

West Ham United

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The Prospects – Goals
While Slaven Bilic’s side are yet to play at home, they’ve registered a reasonable 25 shots over the opening two Gameweeks.

Only the Spurs clash in Gameweek 7 stands out as a stern test over the coming spell, although Huddersfield and West Bromwich Albion are both yet to concede.

The Swansea fixture looks the plum home match-up, while away trips to Newcastle and Burnley could also yield goals as the Hammers were able to score twice at Southampton, despite being reduced to 10 men early on.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
While they’ve won both their matches, West Brom have only created one big chance, and along with the Swansea, Newcastle and Burnley fixtures, should present West Ham with solid opportunities to produce defensive returns.

As already mentioned, Huddersfield’s underlying statistics aren’t as impressive as you’d expect from a side that has scored four goals, suggesting that there may be some regression over the coming weeks.

The Hammers’ defence hasn’t convinced so far, but playing at Man United and with a man down at Southampton, more is expected – particularly when they return to the London Stadium.

The Turning Point
West Ham have a very strong run all the way up to Gameweek 10, but they then host Liverpool and face a torrid run between Gameweeks 14 and 17, with encounters against Everton, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal.

Verdict
Javier Hernandez is the most transferred-in player since Saturday’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline, with the fixtures suggesting he can remain among the goals. He looks the solution from the Hammers’ attack while the midfield pecking order settles, with Joe Hart and potentially Angelo Ogbonna (both 4.5) the picks from the backline.

Also consider…

Newcastle United
Their next four fixtures (WHU swa STO bha) all look promising, with clashes against Liverpool and Southampton much trickier from that point on.

However, confidence in Magpies’ assets is low, with few players standing out over the opening two Gameweeks.

Rob Elliot provides the value at the back – providing he retains his starting spot – while set-piece duties mean we perhaps shouldn’t discount Matt Ritchie just yet.

West Bromwich Albion
Baggies defenders have served us well so far, but their next three home fixtures (STO WHU WAT) look crucial to maintaining that momentum.

The trip to Brighton in Gameweek 4 is also positive, but fixtures at Arsenal, Leicester City and Southampton signal the end of West Brom’s kind start to the season.

Ben Foster is currently our favoured route into the Baggies’ defence, with Ahmed Hegazi’s starts perhaps not assured once Gareth McAuley is back to fitness and with Tony Pulis seeking to bring in another central defender. Jay Rodriguez and, in particular, Matt Phillips, can offer value in attack.

Brighton & Hove Albion
The Seagulls are another side who could prosper in the short-term (wat WBA bou NEW).

Matches against Arsenal and Everton loom in Gameweeks 7 and 8, although Chris Hughton’s side then face four further kind fixtures.

Markus Suttner’s attacking threat makes him our defender of choice, although he has yet to display those qualities for his new side. Lewis Dunk remains an option – he’s already shown his threat at set-plays.

Faith in Pascal Gross and Anthony Knockaert has waned, but the latter has only made two cameo appearances from the bench as he continues to build up his match sharpness following pre-season injury.