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5 September 2017 837 comments
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In our first look at post-overhaul options in the Sky Sports game, we bring you our top targets in goal and defence.

Our general preference is to aim for budget to mid-price options at the back, using the bulk of our budget for a strong attacking front seven in either a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 formation.

Simply put, this limits the amount of players that can net us negative points (goals conceded) and lets us focus on strong captain candidates up top.

There is an argument for spending a little more on our goalkeeper as they are rewarded with an extra two points for a clean sheet compared to defenders.

However, although this seems sensible in theory, the less-expensive keepers often still end up challenging the top end due to the high amount of saves they are forced to make, earning them regular bonus points.

Due to Sky Sports being a limited transfer game (40 total outside of overhauls) and attacking positions returning more points in general, it makes sense to try and limit transfers used at the back as best we can.

Selecting nailed-on picks for the long haul and largely ignoring fixtures aids in that quest.

Certainly, last season’s overall winner, Dan Cox, can vouch for that strategy. He used a total of four transfers on his goalkeepers and defenders throughout 2016/17 – and that was without the addition of two overhauls added for this campaign.

Goalkeeper Picks

Jonas Lossl – 5.7m – Points so far: 29
The cheapest starting keeper in the game is already nearing legendary status as three shut-outs out of three pre-overhaul was a dream come true for early adopters. He also managed to earn save bonus once, making him the highest scoring shot stopper so far.

Ben Foster – 6.4m – Points so far: 20
Two clean sheets out of three and just one goal conceded bodes well for the former England International. The Baggies seem to have addressed their leaky defence from last term and Foster currently offers the cheapest nailed-on route into their backline. Ahmed Hegazy, at 6.2m, could continue to feature given his encouraging start to life in the top flight, although as we’ll cover later, he now appears under greater threat.

Jack Butland – 6.6m – Points so far: 15
Hopefully, Butland’s injury problems are now behind him and he can be revived as a Fantasy asset. In the 2015/16 season he managed 10 shut-outs in 31 matches for the Potters and also topped the save charts with 18 bonus. We see no reason why he can’t emulate those figures, having already earned save bonus and a cleansheet. He’s also the cheapest route into Stoke’s defence.

Fraser Forster – 6.7m – Points so far: 23
Currently third in the overall goalkeeper rankings, the giant Forster does look an enticing pick. Two clean sheets and two tier one saves from his three matches is impressive work. Ultimately, his selection may depend on his colleague Jack Stephens’ pitch-time. At 6.5m Stephens offers a cheaper alternative if he can hold off the challenge of Wesley Hoedt and Virgil van Dijk.

Kasper Schmeichel – 6.7m – Points so far: 22
The Dane has started the season in fine form, picking up an impressive MoTM award already in a 2-0 loss to Man United in which he saved a penalty. With a clean sheet and a couple of save bonus thrown in, Schmeichel looks capable of picking up points from all angles. Coming in at roughly 0.5 less than his defensive counterparts also aids his cause.

Jordan Pickford – 6.8m – Points so far: 16
Despite Everton’s brutal early fixtures, the young Englishman has managed to return in each match. Pickford also has form for saves, having topped the charts last campaign just above Tom Heaton (from fewer starts too). Although he may not be as busy under his current employers, you would expect his clean sheet tally to improve under Ronald Koeman.

Defender Picks

Markus Suttner – 5.7m – Points so far: 11
Cheap nailed-on starting defenders are like gold dust in Sky Sports and Markus Suttner looks set to fit that bill. He’s not pulled up any tress yet and, in truth, at 5.7m he’s unlikely to. But he has looked a solid pick to this point. Brighton kept 12 clean sheets at home in the Championship (21 total) and Suttner comes with some impressive attacking numbers from his time in Germany. He averaged a shot every 63 minutes and a key pass every 51 minutes, so maybe there is still time for some deforestation.

Timothy Fosu-Mensah – 5.7m – Points so far: 6
Another whose price tag is the main appeal, leaving cash for the all-important attacking positions. Crystal Palace have obviously struggled so far, but there is hope the addition of Mamadou Sakho will once again transform their defence. Along with colleague Joel Ward (6.0m), they also have the added appeal of bonus points from tackles, being the joint second and third best tacklers at the back. Ironically, the signing of Sahko may result in one of them warming the bench, but the hope is Fosu-Mensah remains as the right-sided centre-back, giving us the potential for a real gem.

Kiko Femenia – 5.7m – Points so far: 13
This pick should really be ‘The Watford Defence’ because, aside from Daryl Janmaat and Jose Holebas, the Hornets backline will set you back anywhere between 6.3 and 4.4 million. Molla Wague, at 5.6m, and Femenia do look the cheapest likely starters, with the Spaniard impressing in his two starts so far. Rotation and some poor early fixtures may put Fantasy managers off, but that provides us with the opportunity to monitor from afar before taking the plunge. And the prices quoted for a defender in a Marco Silva team look worthy of our attention.

Christopher Schindler – 6.0m – Points so far: 27
As above, another pick where the whole team’s defence could be an option, mainly due to price. Chris Lowe (6.1m), Tommy Smith (6.2m) and Mathias Jorgensen (5.7m) all look viable options after a trio of clean sheets to start the campaign. Lowe has looked good bonus-wise and may yet feature in some set-pieces, Smith has already earned a MoTM award after his raids forward and Jorgensen – aka Zanka – has more attempts on goal than the others, with three from inside the box. Schindler just edges it for us at this point due to him earning the most bonus points (six). He also arguably has less competition for his place.

Ahmed Hegazy – 6.2m – Points so far: 33
The star of the defensive picks so far and the overall second-highest scoring player in the game after two clean sheets, two MoTM awards and a goal in his three matches to date. The Egyptian should be an automatic pick at such a cheap price, but concerns over his starting berth have now escalated. Jonny Evans (7.4m) failed to leave the Baggies in the transfer window and last season’s six goal hero, Gareth McAuley (7.5m), is close to full fitness, both should challenge for starts at some point. Allan Nyom 6.7m could offer an alternative, having already picked up an assist and a MoTM award to go with his tackling bonus, although Craig Dawson (7.4m) could be moved over to take his full-back spot. Given the uncertainty, it looks wise to let the Baggies defence settle and opt out in this overhaul period.

Jack Stephens – 6.5m – Points so far: 15
Stephens also looks to be a great pick – if he can fend off competition and hold on to his starting place. The appeal in both cases is their price compared to the rest of the team, with the young Englishman’s colleagues coming in around the 7.5–8.2 bracket. Saints have two clean sheets out of three and a favourable fixture run until Gameweek 15, so managers may be willing to take the risk, given the position still looks like Stephens’ to lose.

Kyle Naughton – 6.7m – Points so far: 16
Naughton is currently featuring at right wing-back for the Swans, so immediately comes into our thinking as his raids forward have already produced an assist. Two away clean sheets is also impressive, considering Swansea City have usually been far more comfortable at home. Alfie Mawson (7.3m) also looks a good pick if you can stretch the budget – he managed four goals and three MoTM awards last term.

Harry Maguire – 7.4m – Points so far: 22
A player who certainly passes the ‘eye test’, Maguire’s performances for Leicester City have impressed as much as his ability to earn 22 points from three tricky fixtures. A goal an assist, a clean sheet and a MoTM award all to his name already suggest fixture difficulty won’t hinder his prospects. With goals worth seven points for defenders, Maguire looks a real asset and carries next to no threat of rotation. The term ‘fire and forget’ looks tailor-made for the twinkle-toed Englishman.

Phil Jones – 7.5m – Points so far: 21
England’s centre-back has no doubt been priced with his injury record in mind – at 7.5m he’s far cheaper than the next nailed-on asset Antonio Valencia (9.0m). Three clean sheets from three for Man United should certainly cause a few to look at Jones, especially as his form suggests it will only be the next injury that will stop him from churning out points. He has also been flirting with bonus, averaging 50 completed passes per game. If he can bump those numbers a tad, we could see a regular return of nine points from United’s number four.

Ben Davies – 8.2m – Points so far: 21
Stepping out of Danny Rose’s shadow, Davies looks an exciting pick. He has had five attempts already, with one resulting in a goal, he’s getting touches in the opponents’ box, with six so far, and he’s created more chances than any other defender (9). Davies is also taking a fair share of corners for Spurs. He really does look a solid pick and may even be worth considering over a similarly-priced midfielder in a back four. Rose’s return would change matters but, as we’ve seen for months, that continues to drag.

Marcos Alonso – 10.0m – Points so far: 28
An extortionate price for a defender, but the Spaniard could be an exception. Six goals last season in 31 starts and two already in the opening three matches certainly catches the eye. Playing at left wing-back, he regularly gets into the opponents’ box (12 touches there already) and is one of the most deadly players in the league from free-kicks in and around the area. If Chelsea can get close to the 16 clean sheets they managed last term, then Alonso could yet prove a decent pick – even when compared to his midfield counterparts.

Weekly articles and podcast

In Friday’s Sky Sports Focus I’ll reveal who has made my Overhaul line-up ahead of the weekend.

As well as the weekly Focus article this season, I’ll be talking through the week’s action and upcoming plans with FFS posters Buffrey and Lewis on our regular podcast – the latest episode can be found here.

The Fantasy Football Scout League

We’ve already set up our Fantasy Football Scout League and, after winning the League of Leagues for each of the last four seasons, we’re looking to defend our crown in 2017/18.

Get your teams in – the name is FFScout and the pin number to join is 8300422.

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  1. Dasher0303
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Rooney looking like a great 3rd striker choice in two weeks time and also Sandro when the fixtures change and a lot of people WC.

    1. My Name Is Prince
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Maybe...

    2. Greenbackbøøg…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Eh Firmino for 1m more will prove to be better value imo

    3. Il Papera
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Sigurdsson to Keane will bring at least 4 goals this season if he sees off the set piece competition.

    4. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      If Calvert-Lewin can get gametime, he is a better option imo.

  2. KUNingas
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    What to do with JWP? Not much options under 5.4

    1. My Name Is Prince
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      In the same boat with Gross, only 5.4m, thinking of Atsu for the next three, then its close to WC time anyway...

      1. KUNingas
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah leaning on this

    2. Greenbackbøøg…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Keep for now and wait for a cheap midfield bandwagon to appear

      1. KUNingas
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks.

    3. lugs
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Steven Davis might be a viable option if he keeps playing as a central attacking midfielder , like he has in 2 previous games this season

  3. amsemp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Normally I've always preferred 3-4-3 and historically it always seems to be the most rewarding formation, but Alonso has got me thinking. You're essentially paying £7.1 for a Chelsea midfielder who will get more points per goal/assist, bigger bonus chances and clean sheet points.

    I'm now considering W/C to get him in and predominantly playing 4-3-3 (as I would have to have two £4.5 mids), but it would still feel more like 3-4-3. I could occasionally swap a £4.5 mid in for a £4.5 defender and play 3-4-3 if fixtures favour it.

    Thoughts? Is Alonso and a £4.5 mid better than a £4.5 defender and a £7.0 mid? I'm thinking it probably is.

    1. NIGHTHIKER - I Kane, I Shaw…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      There aren't really many options in the 7.0 mid price bracket, so yeah.

    2. Sánchez
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      A 4.5 mid does nothing ever
      A 4.5 defender might get CS

    3. Dasher0303
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Quite frustration to own tho. Only works if you own literally the whole season and never bench him.

    4. No_Mo_Salah?
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      No way to stretch 4.5 mid to Atsu with Alonso? That is my current thinking.

      1. amsemp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I've tried, but realistically it means Cedric or Davies to a £4.5 or £5.0 defender which I'm not too keen on

        1. DantheManinaPan
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Davies to Maguire worth considering at least

  4. It’s gonna Ben Mee
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Imagine having a Meunier vs Gibraltar haul in FPL. 3 goals and 3 assists by a defender is pretty decent, haha.

    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Imagine Gibraltar in the PL

      1. el polako
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Imagine all the people...

  5. F4L
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Firmino likely to start today right? he should be fine for Saturday surely

    1. Dasher0303
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Start? He doesn't start for national team usually.

      1. Dasher0303
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Jesus plays striker and neymar on lw. Not sure if he can play rw or in midfield.

      2. F4L
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I think Brazil have already qualified and they're giving him a go

    2. MTPockets
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Yep and hope so. Jesus/Coutinho expected to have a rest on the bench.

    3. No_Mo_Salah?
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Play 2 this week from:

      A. Atsu
      B. Lowe
      C. Naughton

      Cheers!

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        A B

      2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        A C

    4. Dasher0303
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Kola is the ultimate differential captain pick.

      Nailed at LWB now ox has gone so way less defensive duties. at home to Bournemouth who look really bad and Arsenal might fight back and good chance of cleanse. Gets so far up pitch and Bournemouth's right side is quite weak so good chance of attacking returns.

      Anyone?

      1. DD
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I considered it very briefly and then decided to stop drinking for the day 🙂

      2. Heels_Over_Head
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Don't usually captain differentials as a rule.

        Don't usually captain defenders as a rule.

        If this is one of 5 weeks in the season you want to break from the herd and punt on your captain, do it.

        If this is going to lead to you being punty with your captain every week, don't do it and return to the safety of picking your captain from the top three results in the captain's poll - it's boring but it works out statistically over time.

        1. jamhot12
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah I totally agree it does feel like that kind of week where capt a Ryan Bertrand, kola or someone may be the route to success this week ! I'm playing 5,2,3 formation this week just cause lol

      3. liiusions
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Nailed at LWB?? The same lad that was benched last game??

        1. Dasher0303
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Mate I said ox left and ox played LWB so do some research. Also wenger will realise that he needs to shake lineup up after a 4-0 defeat and playing Kola is one change that he will do. Also who else will play there cos Monreal looks better at lcb and Kolas is a much better option than Monreal at LWB and is a perfect position for him, unlike Monreal who isn't very attacking and doesn't suit his position as well.

          1. Dasher0303
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            Now you can't even reply.

            1. jamhot12
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 3 months ago

              Lol burn !!

      4. Infamy, Infamy
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Would dispute that Bournemouth look really bad. Very unlucky to lose to City last time out.

    5. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Aguero -> Lacazette? For a FT

      Planning on doing it after GW5 anyway. Or should I just do it now?

      Aguero:
      Liverpool (H)
      Watford (A)

      Has great records in both those Fixtures

      Lacazette:
      Bournemouth (H)
      Chelsea (A)

      Would Captain against Bournemouth, whilst I doubt I'll Captain Aguero

      HELP

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I'd keep Aguero personally, could be a great differential and will almost for sure start this week seeing as Sterling is banned

        1. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah that's what I thought too, and Lacazette is a risk of starting after last game, I'll stay put thanks!

          1. Scapegoat Salah
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            No worries, I'd be very tempted to captain him too

        2. Dasher0303
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Could Sane not start?? Or will Pep go back to aguero?

          1. Scapegoat Salah
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            This is part of the problem and also why I have no City players as Pep is so unpredictable.

            Given the big game nature I'd be surprised if Aguero didn't start.

    6. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I plan to swap Stones for Jones. Do it now or wait until deadline just incase..?

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I'd do it now in case although unlikely, Jones rises

        1. Red Dagger ✪
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Thinking the same but I checked and he isn't close to rising but my guess is all the casuals could come back on line in a day or so and make that happen...?

          1. Scapegoat Salah
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            Rises will happen on Friday or Saturday I reckon.

            Why are you considering waiting out of interest?

      2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I'd wait.

      3. Kun Tozser
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I'd wait. Only at 22, surprised if he rose anyhow, rotation risk ultimately

    7. Scapegoat Salah
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      As on my WC, do I keep with Davies (Long term pick), or opt for Bertrand for the fixtures and change to Davies next week or later?

      1. Red Dagger ✪
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Bertrand.

        1. Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Thanks Red Dagger

      2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Davies for me

        1. Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Cheers Skull, 1-1 Interesting

      3. Red Dagger ✪
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Bertrand x2

      4. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Davies x2

        1. Red Dagger ✪
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Haha! Well I have Bertie and I'm swapping Stones for Jones and PVA for Davies so I guess I'd vote for both 😉

      5. Dasher0303
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Is it not the other way round?? Bertrand is more long term due to better long term fixtures and nailed while Davies just has short to medium term fixtures and is soon to be benched once rose is fit.keep Davies I'd say tho and maybe get Cedric instead of Bertrand.

        1. Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          No, imo I just would rather have Davies LT (assuming he keeps his place).
          Mostly down to his attacking returns, on corners and I generally feel Spurs will do better defensively than Southampton.

          Thanks, I'm leaving towards having Davies for this week.

      6. Kun Tozser
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Bertrand or Rose long term surely

        1. Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Do you think Rose will slot straight back in at LWB then?

    8. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Really fancy this Acca. tonight @ 22/1

      Japan / Brazil / Chili /Morocco.

      1. Red Dagger ✪
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I like it.

        1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Fingers crossed 🙂

          1. Red Dagger ✪
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            Mine are clenched for you as you can see. Good luck mate.

            1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 3 months ago

              Cheers!

    9. The Captain Poll as a Predictor
      Ludo
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Plenty of experienced FPL managers seem to view this as a week without a stand-out captaincy option, as four of last year's top six teams play away from home, and Arsenal and Man City prospects are yet to fully gain our trust.

      Despite that impression, Romelu Lukaku has gained more than a third of the votes so far in the FFS Captain Poll, twenty points ahead of the closest challenger, Harry Kane. Do the masses know something we don't?

      When in doubt, conventional wisdom suggests simply following the poll, but I'm interested in exactly how reliable a predictor it's been in the past. I've had a look at the top three from the FFS Captain Poll for each gameweek in the last two seasons (2015/16 and 2016/17), and in the three gameweeks we've had so far in 2017/18. Here's what I found:

      Poll # - Average FPL Points - Blank Percentage
      1 - 6.9 - 35%
      2 - 6.5 - 43%
      3 - 5.8 - 47%

      You can see that the strategy of following the poll has some real merit - on average, the poll leader has scored the most points of the top three in a given gameweek, and blanked the least often (scoring 3 points or less). The player voted second in the poll has been next best in both scoring most and blanking least, with the third most popular choice justifying their position at the rear.

      However, I found something more interesting when I looked beyond poll positions, and into the percentage of votes earned:

      Poll % - Average FPL Points - Blank Percentage
      0-9 - 5.4 - 54%
      10-19 - 5.6 - 46%
      20-29 - 6.3 - 43%
      30-39 - 7.2 - 30%
      40-49 - 8.3 - 25%
      50+ - 8.4 - 27%

      I have to say, I was taken aback by the strength of the correlation between a higher percentage of votes, and a higher average FPL score, as well as the lower likelihood of a blank.

      Where the poll leader is a clear favourite, such as in GW2 this season (where Lukaku took 46% of the vote), it seems foolhardy not to have them as your captain. Where the most popular option isn't such a stand-out, we are right to consider going down the differential route.

      This week doesn't seem to be one of those where it's a particularly close call, though. Lukaku's share of the vote so far is only slightly below the poll leader average of 38%, and on that basis, he seems a fairly safe pick for the armband this weekend.

      1. Celt Abroad
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Great analysis.

      2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Good Read tx

      3. Pochecinno
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Quality post as always, Ludo.

        I remember asking if someone had done anything similar a year or so ago. It adds another dimension to the game similar Bolivian Seaman's old article. Essentially looking at the question of how good of a guage fan/poll opinion is for expected points.

        1. Ludo
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          I think that as this site becomes more popular, the strength of the captain poll increases - I really think there's something in the wisdom of the masses - everyone voting is at least fairly clued up, even if they are subject to the usual biases.

          If 50% of voters think someone is the best option, and you disagree, you're probably trying too hard to be different. That's not to say we should follow it blindly, but I think it will win out over anyone's gut instinct in the long term. If first, second and third are on 15-20%, though, that's where the cream is separated from the crop.

          1. Pochecinno
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            Agreed. I think Lukaku's very high ownership at the beginning of the season is similar to this. It can't all be put down to 'United fans'. Players will have high ownership/high captaincy for a reason. It is, as you say, when it isn't at obvious when one's skill are really put to the test.

      4. MTPockets
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Relative ownership will skew the poll (I think people mostly vote for their captain not the best captain).
          Ownership will likely correlate with performance/rational expectations.

          1. fedolefan
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            Even if most vote for their captain, he's calculating the blank percentage for the captain and not if the captain is the best pick that week. Kane may score more than Lukaku, but if Lukaku scores, this will have been a successful week. He is just analyzing data across all the results and isn't necessarily predicting the best captain of the week.

            1. MTPockets
                8 years, 3 months ago

                I'm not sure what point you're making? Yes it's relative.

                1. fedolefan
                  • 11 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Well, honestly, I'm not sure of the point you're making. He's analyzing data from all polls. Every poll will have people voting for their captain and not the best captain. It is consistent, it can be assumed to be a constant, and thus not relevant. What is the solution here? Just ignore the captaincy poll? Fair enough, but then there's also value in analyzing results from conducting one.

                  1. MTPockets
                      8 years, 3 months ago

                      You're reading too much into my words. All I inferred was that captain picks and relative future returns are already likely to be correlated. I don't think that's a controversial statement, or a critique of his or any analysis.

                      1. fedolefan
                        • 11 Years
                        8 years, 3 months ago

                        Maybe, yeah, that's why I asked I'm not sure what you were getting at. I was justifying his post since I've always wondered if aggregating data around these polls resulted in any valuable info.

                        1. MTPockets
                            8 years, 3 months ago

                            Crossed wires I think; analyses are what I most like about this forum - including Ludo's. Frankly, I'm probably more interested in FPL/stats than most actual football.

              • THE SHEEP HUNTERS
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Martial could be genius this week then or just slightly disastrous.

                1. Twelve years a slave
                  • 15 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Zouma injury good news for Lukaku

                  1. Twelve years a slave
                    • 15 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    I have done this sort of analysis many times. The idea of a correlation is not new.
                    Weeks like this are always good for a differential. I am rather perplexed at all the people bringing in Firmino rather than Chicarito who looks by far the best capt option

                    1. Weasel Boy
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 13 Years
                      8 years, 3 months ago

                      Huddersfield is pretty tight at the back.
                      If be surprised (although hopeful) to see WH score many against them.

                    2. Enzo the Baker
                      • 12 Years
                      8 years, 3 months ago

                      @TL : I feel the best part of this analysis is how after a certain "critical mass" of captainers (maybe around 30%+), it makes a lot of sense to go with the Community Poll choice of captain in the long run.

                      While the idea of a correlation may not be new, this part certainly is new.

                  2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    They'll put 2 on him leaving the space for my man.

                  3. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    Trigger what happened to Zouma? Not heard anything of this 🙂

              • More Tragic
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                ' Do the masses know something we don't? '

                It's an FFS poll so, correct me if I'm wrong, every voter is surely a 'we' or am I missing something here?

                1. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  What happened to Kane scoring a hat trick last night ???..........

                  1. More Tragic
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    He wore his Nike boots instead of the Adidas ones, the idiot.

                    1. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      8 years, 3 months ago

                      oh yeah,,,,,,,,good point

                2. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  I would suggest there is a lot that the masses know that you don't know

                  1. More Tragic
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    Highly unlikely.

                3. Ludo
                  • 12 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Sorry, fair point - by 'we' I meant people who don't see this as a clear-cut week for the captaincy - the poll seems to think it is.

              • Enzo the Baker
                • 12 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Superb analysis as always, Ludo.

                One small change I'd ask is if you could show Median FPL points instead of average. This is because DGW and other bursts of points can easily affect the mean (average), but the median is less sensitive to outliers. So, if the FFS community crowd picks an obvious captain during the DGW (like Alexis or Kane), and they perform well like they have done in the last 2 seasons, it will artificially inflate how "smart" the crowd-picks are. Instead, if you report the median, we might get a better idea of how the crowd performs during an average GW.

                But this is a minor change, overall these are very interesting findings!

                1. Ludo
                  • 12 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Nice idea, here you go:

                  Poll # - Median FPL Points
                  1 - 5
                  2 - 5
                  3 - 4

                  Poll % - Median FPL Points
                  0-9 - 3
                  10-19 - 5
                  20-29 - 5
                  30-39 - 6
                  40-49 - 6
                  50+ - 6

                  1. John t penguin
                    • 11 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    Could you also take into account post international weeks, players who have travelled, home and away fixtures and wing speed velocity of a swallow.
                    Unless someone has done this many times before of course

                    1. Enzo the Baker
                      • 12 Years
                      8 years, 3 months ago

                      Haha, sorry if the request was too detailed Purveyor .. I'm glad at least Ludo didn't seem to think so 😉

                  2. Enzo the Baker
                    • 12 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    Great ! Thank you for the follow up analysis, Ludo.

                    Looks like the difference between a 10% voted captain and a 50% voted captain is less dramatic when we use Median (1 FPL point difference) as compared to Mean (2.8 FPL points difference). Of course the Median calculation is whole numbers and not fractions, so I might be reading too much into this. Overall, I believe your analysis & conclusion is fairly robust.

                    In short, each week, try to cover all players with >30% captaincy in the FFS poll because they have a good chance of scoring 6+ points and small chance of blanking completely.

                    1. Ludo
                      • 12 Years
                      8 years, 3 months ago

                      The median is less sensitive to outliers, as you say, but when it comes to the captaincy, I think the mean probably has more value, because it gives more of a sense of the range of scores - you want to buy a lottery ticket for the biggest hauls for the times that it pays off.

                      For example, 8 of the 11 times that a player has had 50% or more of the votes in the poll in the last two seasons, that player has been Sergio Aguero. One of those Aguero weeks was at home to Newcastle in GW8 of 2015/16, where Aguero famously scored five.

                      But you're right, I think the key takeaway from this is that there seems to be a 'critical mass' of voters on the poll, and 30% looks about right for that number. There's only been more than one player with 30% of the vote in the same gameweek twice - Lukaku (BUR, 35%, 6 points) and Kane (BOU, 33%, 12 points) in GW33 of 2016/17 and Lukaku (SWA, 31%, 2 points) and Aguero (whu, 31%, 12 points) in GW23 of 2015/16.

                    2. Ludo
                      • 12 Years
                      8 years, 3 months ago

                      I've just had a look at breaking things down further:

                      Poll % - Average FPL Points - Median FPL Points - Blank Percentage
                      0-4 - 3.7 - 3.0 - 57%
                      5-9 - 5.7 - 3.0 - 53%
                      10-14 - 5.9 - 6.0 - 38%
                      15-20 - 5.1 - 3.0 - 55%
                      21-24 - 6.3 - 5.0 - 38%
                      25-29 - 6.2 - 5.0 - 48%
                      30-34 - 6.2 - 5.0 - 35%
                      35-39 - 8.3 - 7.0 - 25%
                      40-44 - 7.2 - 6.0 - 17%
                      40-49 - 8.9 - 5.5 - 33%
                      50+ - 8.4 - 6.0 - 27%

                      With smaller sample sizes for each range, there's more variation, and not quite such a smooth curve of correlation. But, I think that 35% in the Captain Poll might just be the magic threshold we're looking for - it's only ever been reached by a winner of the poll.

                      Poll % - Average FPL Points - Median FPL Points - Blank Percentage
                      0-34 - 5.8 - 5.0 - 46%
                      35+ - 8.3 - 6.0 - 26%

                      If we limit it just to poll winners, where Costa's 17% in GW30 last season is the lowest score I've recorded:

                      Poll % - Average FPL Points - Median FPL Points - Blank Percentage
                      17-34 - 5.3 - 5.0 - 47%
                      35+ - 8.3 - 6.0 - 26%

                      Lukaku at the moment is on 34.69%, funnily enough - right on that point where I think you should probably captain him.

                      1. Ludo
                        • 12 Years
                        8 years, 3 months ago

                        Routinely captaining any player with 35% of the vote isn't so common an occurrence that you need to worry about it cramping your style too much, or limiting individuality, in my opinion.

                        It's happened in each of the first three gameweeks so far this season - Lukaku for the first two, Kane in GW3, and possibly Lukaku in GW4, though I suspect he may just miss that mark. If you'd gone for all three (as I did, and many others I'm sure) you'd have 14.0 PPG from your captain after the doubling, and a 33% blank percentage.

                        It happened in each of the first three last season as well, but only 21 of 38 gameweeks overall. By captaining a 35% leader every time, you'd have scored

                        1. Enzo the Baker
                          • 12 Years
                          8 years, 3 months ago

                          I am not one of the brigade who say that captaining the highest player in the captain poll "cramps your style". There are 10 other positions in your team to mess around with : so since captain is worth 2x I like to play safe there.

                      2. Enzo the Baker
                        • 12 Years
                        8 years, 3 months ago

                        This is top quality stuff Ludo, great effort! I would suggest that you submit this as a community article, this interesting analysis could easily get lost here in the comments section.

                        As you say, the 5% breakdowns lead to more variance and perhaps less confidence in the result due to small sample size (although I recognize you were doing this to find a more precise magic threshold, which I agree, looks like 35%).

                        Also yes, my armband is on Lukaku for this week. Of course it may all fall apart this week but I believe it pays off over the long run.

                      3. Ludo
                        • 12 Years
                        8 years, 3 months ago

                        ...17.6 PPG, with a 17% blank percentage. In 2016/17, someone hit 35% in 17 of 38 gameweeks - always captaining that player would have yielded 15.8 PPG, with a 35% blank percentage.

                        I don't think you'll match that by going off the beaten track, and so what I'm really saying is, if someone wins over a third of the poll vote (roughly), play it safe and stick the armband on them. That should cover around half the gameweeks in a season - for the other half, feel free to do what you want - it may well be the key factor in your season.

              • lespaul
                • 16 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                What would be cool is paddy odds vs poll success compared

                1. Ludo
                  • 12 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Unfortunately, you can't get odds on the top FPL scorer of the week! There's always going to be some conversion involved with goals, clean sheets and assists (can you get odds on those?), and they won't account for bonus points. The beauty of the poll is that everything is rolled into one.

              • Cok3y5murf
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Hence, we should no longer have a Captain Poll to make the game more interesting.

              • KISSES
                • 12 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Top post, top poster. Thank you.

              • FC Lackless [BALEGIUM]
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                fantastic detailed analysis

              • Nailed Jesus
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Why not just go to a bookmaker and compare the odds for players to score 2 or more goals, and pick one who's got the shortest odds. That's gotta beat the poll. In fact, if you do the same analysis, you'll probably find an even stronger correlation.

                1. Ludo
                  • 12 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  As above, there's more to it than just goals, with assists, clean sheets and bonus points all major factors. The FFS poll came out on top against the bookies odds last season - https://www.triggerlips.com/index.php/2017/06/08/fpl-captain-scores-analysis/

                  1. Nailed Jesus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    Fair enough, thanks for the post. I think if you compare strikers only bookies will outperform. You would have thought, for strikers, BPS is highly correlated with no. of goals scored. For example, this weekend Lacazette will score more goals than Lukaku, according to the bookies. Poll will be skewed because not many people own Lacazette.

                  2. Nailed Jesus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    Also, have you tried doing the same analysis with the RMT tool? Lukaku is like 6th on there this week....

                    1. Balance
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 3 months ago

                      i have looked at this before for the past 2 seasons but don't have the data off hand - the conclusion was the record has been mixed. Last year the FFscout RMT had a higher total score vs the Poll, but underperformed the year before.

              • Lateriser 12
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Thanks for this Ludo. I wonder how much of this is pivoted by easy home game bankers from premium teams where there are no dilemmas. Either way it's great work and fair play to those that follow the ownership while captaining a player. For me, it takes away the essence of a game and I'd not want to follow the masses when I spend more time on fpl than the average fpl player and am armed with more knowledge and stats to only then follow what the crowds do. Just not how I work.

                1. Seb Wassell
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  I'd say just go for whichever you think will yield more points. If that means following, or ignoring, the masses then so be it. Your knowledge and stats are useless if you only listen to them when they provide a "differential".

              • DrunkPhilosophy
                • 11 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Great analysis! Thanks.

              • tm245
                • 14 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Nice work, Ludo. I ran something similar over the first three months of last season to figure out how accurate the various commonly used methods are -- price, poll, RMT, stats, fixtures, form -- as a conclusion to this series of captaincy articles:
                http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2016/11/11/fpl-captaincy-explosiveness-versus-consistency/
                I thought I published those results as well but can't seem to find the post now. I basically weighted the different methods on a 0-4 scale and then came up with an aggregate. My focus was on which players seemed most predictable to get a return or even an explosion, not on which method was most predictive, but I like your approach as well. If you have the numbers already for this season could be an interesting experiment to run it again.

              • Unsuccessful
                • 11 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Excellent!

            2. Dasher0303
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 3 months ago

              Any transfers to do??

              Elliot(swa)
              Kola(BOU) Stephens(WAT) Suttner(WBA)
              Salah(mci) Alli(eve) Mkhi(stk) Mooy(whu)
              Lukaku(stk) Jesus(LIV) Chicha(HUD)

              Begovic(ars) Danilo (LIV)T.Carroll(NEW) Long(CRY)

              1ft 1.0itb

              No idea what to do, maybe Jesus to Morata? Or Stephens to Cedric? Or Begovic to Fab/Foster? Or Jesus to Firmino? Or Danilo to jones/Davies? Or save?

              1. Scapegoat Salah
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Either save or ship Danilo to Jones or Davies as you put.

                I'd rather have Jesus than Firmino this week.

                1. Dasher0303
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Is there a point as I'm benching him.

                  1. Scapegoat Salah
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    Save in that case

            3. Tabbara
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 3 months ago

              Guys
              Do i play Suttner or Ward(Burnley)?

              1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Ward

            4. MOZIL
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 3 months ago

              Lacazette or Morata?

              1. Dasher0303
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Mo

              2. MTPockets
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Lacazette if have faith Wenger's learnt his lesson.

                • el polako
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Morata looks like a better option at the moment.
                  Not sure about how nailed is Lacazette plus what role will Sanchez play in Arsenal's setup.

                • Drip Doctor
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 15 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Morata by far. Lacazette will flop.

              3. Lucky Z
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Mbemba scores

                1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  🙂

              4. H-SF
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                I know it's probably already been asked but is their a scoutcast tonight?

                1. Funkyav
                  • 16 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  yes and yes

              5. Stokelona
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Hi disable! Just wondering when you'll next be doing a sky podcast? I really enjoyed the first ones (apart from you all tipping Stoke to go down- hopefully we've put that to bed with a solid start!).

                1. d1sable
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Hehe yep seems way off the mark at the mo with that one.

                  Next pod is Wednesday evening so should be out late that night or Thurs at latest.

              6. The Head-Ake
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Apart from Jones, who to get in for Ake?

                1. Weasel Boy
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 13 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Cedric Dawson Evans?

                2. Infamy, Infamy
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Considering Naughton and banking 0.5

              7. Corona Macallan
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Help choose the better trio

                A. Abraham Mahrez Alonso
                B. Morata Brady Davies

                1. Nigawan
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  a

              8. MOZIL
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Will Lacazette start this week?

              9. Nigawan
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Alonso or no alonso?!
                1-
                a) alonso, rosenior, david silva,
                b) cedric, zanka, erikson,

                2-
                a)kane
                b)morata

                foster
                ***** , jones, naughton,
                miki, salah, ****, tcarrol
                *****, lukaku, firmino

                bench: elliot, ****, cholobah, mbemba

                1. TorresMagic™
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 16 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Does Morata leave 2.4 in the bank?

                  1b, 2b

              10. AC Pilkington
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Surely a ScoutCast tonight?

              11. Nando7
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Current team is this but thinking of playing my free hit for this week as there are a few challenging games e.g spurs everton cit liverpoo and stoke utd,....

                Foster
                Jones davies danilo feminia

                mane mhki Dele

                Firminho Jesus Lukaku

                If i was to play free hit any suggestions to put in?

              12. applebonkers
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 16 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                mbemba on the scoresheet

                1. applebonkers
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 16 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  lamina too

              13. AC Pilkington
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Doos will probably tell me off but I am going for a bold MNF Antonio 0,5% owned punt.

                Weirdly excited about it haha

                1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 16 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Good luck! I do hope that you win some points. 🙂

                  1. AC Pilkington
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    So do I Doos.

                    Chasing so need to take a risk somewhere

                    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 16 Years
                      8 years, 3 months ago

                      Yeah. Me too. 🙂

                      1. AC Pilkington
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 3 months ago

                        Funny but some teams change for the better after internation break, maybe West Ham havn't really woken up this season yet.

                        Is Antonio more nailed than Lanzini you reckon Doos?

                        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 16 Years
                          8 years, 3 months ago

                          Lanzini's injured.

                2. bojack
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Weirdly excited? Weird.

                  1. George Sillett
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 3 months ago

                    Could have been perversely excited. Oh sorry that's another land.

              14. +
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                a) Salah + Mahrez
                b) Mane + Silva

                (I have Firmino already, no other LIV/LEI/MCI players)

                1. Ajax Hamsterdam
                  • 11 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  B by far !

              15. Gruu
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                What would you do with 1 FT guys?
                0.1ITB

                Foster
                Cedric Hegazi Jones Bavies
                Mkhi Mane Eriksen
                Lukaku Chicharito Kane

                (Elliot Chalobah Mbemba Carroll)

                1. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  dump kane buy Firminio

                2. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  Save it

                3. darrellb
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 3 months ago

                  save it

              16. Rainer
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Salah goal 1-0

              17. I Member
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 3 months ago

                Salah goal