In this article, I will present some statistics that I managed to calculate using a software I am developing. The statistics are focusing on the current status of the Top 10,000 managers regarding Blank Gameweek 31.
The data includes intersections between how many free transfers (FT) the Top 10k managers have over the next two deadlines, the number of Gameweek 31 players they currently have and the percentage of managers who still have their Free Hit chip (FH) available.
After presenting the raw data, I will attempt to predict how Blank Gameweek 31 will look like for the Top 10k based on some reasonable assumptions. Note that the article focuses on the Top 10k as they are the best sample for active players. A good rule of thumb usually is that if you beat the top 10k average, you are in good shape and should expect a green arrow in most cases.
The Statistics
- The average number of current Gameweek 31 players in top 10k teams is 5.7011. The full distribution can be seen in the picture.
- The percentage of Ttop 10k teams with FH available is 60.45%.
- The average number of FTs available to Top 10k teams before GW31 is 2.3627 since 36.27% of the managers currently have 2FTs.
- Teams with no FH available have an average of 5.5575 Gameweek 31 players, while teams with FH have an average of 5.795 players.
- Teams with no FH available have an average of 2.3075​ free transfers, while teams with FH have an average of 2.399 free transfers.
Free Hit-Less In Trouble
The initial look at the stats suggests that the four out of ten Top 10k managers who already used their FH seem to be in much more trouble not only because they can’t use FH in Gamweek 31 but also because they currently have a lower number of Gameweek 31 players. They also have less free transfers. This is surprisingly as this group should have been the ones looking to plan better for this blank fixture.
Careful planning for FH chip holders should prove rewarding.
Analysis
In an attempt to utilise this data in order to simulate the situation at Gameweek 31, I used a set of reasonable simplifying assumptions (that will be assessed next week) to figure out the average number of players and FH users in Gameweek 31 among this elite group of managers.
The assumptions are:
- People who have no FH available will use all their FTs to get Gameweek 31 players. This leads to an estimated average number of players for them in Gameweek 31 of 7.865, with no hits.
- People who have no FH available and who will have less than eight players after using all their FTs are likely to take a hit. This leads to an estimated average number of players for them in GW31 of 8.284, with -1.677 deducted points.
- People with their FH available are 100% Â likely to use this chip if they currently have less than four players, 50% if they currently have between four & seven players, and won’t use FH if they currently have more than seven players. This leads to an estimated total number of Gameweek 31 FHs of 2780 in the top 10k.
- People who will save their FH will use all FTs to bring in Gameweek 31 players. This leads to an estimated average number of players for them in Gameweek 31 of 8.663, with no hits.
- People who will save their FH and who will have less than eight players after using all their FTs are likely to take a hit. This leads to an estimated average number of players for them in Gameweek 31 of 8.915, with -1.008 deducted points.
The table below shows the summary of the simulation.
Therefore, the current status and the assumptions above predict that all in all, 27.8% of the Top 10k will use FH in GW31 to field 11 players, while the remaining 72.2% will be able to field an average of 8.57Â players with average points deducted of -1.374 or 8.23 players with no hits.
So, the difference between a FH team and a non FH team is around just 2.5 players. Thinking of the possible Gameweek 31 players, we can’t even say that owning those 2.5 extra players will yield many points as most of them are average FPL players. If we generously say a Gameweek 31 player will average 3-4 points, then the advantage of using a FH is around 8-11 points.
Hence, I think now every manager could judge their situation accordingly. If you can field nine players with no hits, then you are already around/above the Top 10k average, which can only field around 8.23 players with no hits.
In that case, the average expected gain of using FH is minimal and is around 11 points max with a score that is below GW average by three too four points. If you need a number of hits to reach eight  to nine  players, add the needed deducted points to 11 points and that’s how much using FH may help, and then make your decision! Best of luck.
