Spot the Differential
13 May 2018 3273 comments
James H James H
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Sunday offers us a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

In recent seasons we’ve witnessed a goal rush in Gameweek 38, so we’ve opted for two French threats from Manchester United and Arsenal, while Liverpool’s cut-price full-back also finds a place in our selection as a result of his attacking prowess.

Alexandre Lacazette

While team-mate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most transferred in-forward this week, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Alexandre Lacazette has also been in sensational form for Arsenal.

The French striker has produced five goals and one assist over his last five appearances and, after being rested for the 3-1 defeat to Leicester City, he should return for today’s trip to Huddersfield Town.

Lacazette is likely to start as the central striker for the Gunners, with Aubameyang playing from an inside-left position.

Interestingly, Lacazette has the edge in terms of minutes per shot between the two, averaging an attempt every 31.7 minutes, slightly superior to Aubameyang’s 33.

Although Arsenal have failed to win a single point on their travels in 2018, the fact the Terriers meeting is Arsene Wenger’s final match in charge of the club should provide strong motivation to end the season on a high.

The party atmosphere at the John Smith’s Stadium in light of Huddersfield securing Premier League safety could also be a factor.

The Gunners registered an emphatic 5-0 win when the two teams met earlier in the season, with Lacazette on the scoresheet.

Priced at 10.3 in FPL and ending the campaign full of confidence, the striker looks to have the platform to produce a third consecutive double-figure haul.

Owned by only 7.4% of managers, Lacazette is a player who has the potential to be a game-changer, particularly if he is also considered for the captaincy.

Anthony Martial

With Jose Mourinho revealing that Anthony Martial will be in his line-up today, the midfielder enters the equation as a final day gamble.

The France international has had limited first-team opportunities since the arrival of Alexis Sanchez in January, but the Hornets match-up looks crucial if he is to prove he has a long-term future at Old Trafford.

Martial has produced nine goals and six assists this season, while his average of a goal every 175.7 minutes is only bettered by Marouane Fellaini (153 minutes) among United players.

Watford travel north with just a single point gained from six away matches since Javi Gracia took charge, and having conceded ten goals in away defeats to top-six sides Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

Available at 7.8 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Martial may be an option for managers who can afford to upgrade underperforming players such as Chelsea’s Willian.

With an ownership of 2.5%, the Frenchman represents a major differential for Gameweek 38.

An impressive record against Watford adds to his appeal. He has produced a goal and an assist in the corresponding fixture last season, which Mourinho’s side won 2-0, while he also netted in a 4-2 victory in the reverse fixture in November.

With a point to prove and an FA Cup final spot to play for, Martial fits the profile of a potentially explosive differential.

Trent Alexander-Arnold

While an extended run in Europe has blunted Liverpool’s attack of late, their defensive record at Anfield remains resolute.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have recorded four successive home clean sheets ahead of a visit from a Brighton side that rank joint-bottom for goals scored (ten) on the road.

With that in mind, we’re turning to Trent Alexander Arnold (5% ownership) as our final selection.

Having started only four of the last seven Gameweeks, the youngster’s acquisition admittedly comes with a slight caveat.

But with the Champions League final against Real Madrid taking place 13 days later, we reckon that the Reds’ manager will field a full-strength line-up to ensure a top-four finish.

This should see Alexander-Arnold return to the back-four, having been stationed in central midfield against Stoke City and Chelsea.

Over his last four at Anfield, the right-back is second only to Mohamed Salah when it comes to key passes (seven to eight) for the Reds.

Compared with other defenders over their respective last four home matches, he is placed fourth for both key passes and crosses (28).

Handily, his FPL output has profited from those underlying numbers – Alexander-Arnold has served up 29 points in his last four home fixtures, bagging maximum bonus on two occasions.

Second only to Patrick van Aanholt for transfers-in among defenders, a cost of only 4.4 looks ideal for those seeking to free up cash while recruiting a player with the potential for double figures.

  1. K.F.C
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Play JAyew or Mili?

    1. enrico.palazzo
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      JA

    2. yakirh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      JAyew

    3. K.F.C
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Apologies for crap top post haha

    4. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Milli

    5. K.F.C
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks guys!

    6. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Mili

    1. Numb
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Yeah saw that, off to the Canaries for a cheeky break before the World Cup and why not.

      1. lespaul
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Why not ? Because of matteo

  2. The Royal Robin
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    How many of your GW1 squad are in your squad today? (Regardless if you've sold and repurchased...)

    Just Kane and Zaha for me.

    1. Richd
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Zaha
      Kane

    2. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Salah. Never dropped him. Price paid, 9.0!

      1. The Royal Robin
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Credit to you. That's something worth boasting about. Let me know who you spot this pre-season 😉

    3. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Kane
      Zaha
      K Long

    4. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Justnkane

    5. Fred54
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Kane, Salah and TAA.

      Kane sold and brought multiple times, Salah only recently sold and brought back and TAA had for the first 4 GWs and then sold on WC, never played him, got a 3 0s and a -1!

    6. K.F.C
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Just DDG now hes been shown the door

    7. K.F.C
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      & Kane

    8. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      KZ for me too.

    9. Smurf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Salah and Jesus for me.

    10. Slitherene
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Cedric only.

    11. Hotdogs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      DDG, Zaha, Salah, and Jesus

      Surprised I have 4

    12. Mackans
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Salah!

  3. Richd
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    I don’t think Liverpool change how they play to get Mo a goal.

    They need to prep for the champions league final. It’s a dress rehearsal after all.

    Yes he will take pens. But that’s the extent of it.

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Maybe, although klopp chuckled when asked if they would go all out to get Salah the golden boot

    2. Jafalad
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      They need to win so there won't be any changes.

      1. The Royal Robin
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        My only concern with Salah today is his minutes. He's practically odds on to score one though.

        1. lespaul
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          He is odds on

    3. Punty McPuntface
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Brace and replace at 72mins for mo

  4. Mackans
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Worth taking a -8 for Xhaka & Ryan -> Arnie & Romero??

  5. Jafooli
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Hearing from my sources that quite a fe first choice players might be benched today in order to give reserves a run out. This concerns 16 from 20 of the PL teams.

    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I think we all suspect that

    2. Punty McPuntface
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Good news!

    3. Richd
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Haha maybe the United reserve team is tempting. At least we know they start

    4. mutatedllama
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Doubt it. The race for 10th place is worth a lot to so many teams. Can't see anybody being rested from any team that is fighting for that spot.

  6. Give The Todd Some Love
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Long or Masuaku?

    1. Punty McPuntface
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Long

  7. Ruud van Kane
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Who starts today out of this bunch or % likelyhood?

    Silva
    Davies
    Smalling

    1. Slitherene
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      50
      75
      0

  8. aleksios
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Alli+Smalling to Salah+TAA for a hit?

    1. yakirh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Alli could backfire

  9. El-Kloppico
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Lloris
    Bavies - Azpi - Tarko
    Sterling - Salah - Mikhi - Gudmunsson
    Kane - Jesus - Ayew

    Who's doubtful of a start in this bunch? Any need to take a hit and bring some1?
    ML is almost lost with leader 24pts above.

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Think they're all likely to play including Bavies as Spurs need a win to cement 3rd.

  10. redwiing
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    3 points behind closest rival. Do i take a -4 and do Vardy - Aubameyang & Mustafi - TAA or something else....?

    Dubravka
    Mustafi / Davies / Ward
    Pogba / Zaha / Sterling / Arnie
    Vardy / Kane / Jesus

    1. Punty McPuntface
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I wouldn't be taking hits

    2. Rash
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I'd be getting rid of Pogba before anyone

  11. Royal5
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone else considering Sterling C?

    1. Punty McPuntface
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Na salah for me

      1. Royal5
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Terrible form?

    2. Richd
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Considering yeah.

      I TC him last week so wondering if I’m just trying to double down to make myself feel better about him

      1. Fresh_From_Desh
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        I am.

        Chasing and he's a differential

        1. Royal5
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          My thinking

          1. Royal5
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            +fresh legs

    3. Fantasy Gold
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Yep.

      If I hear that Spurs are putting out a few reserves I’ll switch to him

    4. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

  12. Punty McPuntface
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Chasing my rival by 25 points...What transfer(s) do I do?

    Ryan ddg
    Lowton long* dunk* Morgan* Cedric*
    Son gross* salah (c) sterling cork
    Vardy Kane Jesus 

    0.3 ITB

    The * are the players she doesn't have!

  13. enrico.palazzo
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Repost sorry - need confirmation;

    If I look at the profile of a FPL player, will there team value change each day as the price rises occur?

    I've been monitoring someones and it did not change today, where he made 2 transfers the day prior...

    1. Jafalad
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Well...yeah. Prices go up....tvs go up.

      1. enrico.palazzo
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Amazing then he hasn't transferred in any of the risers from today......

  14. Brosstan
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Last day! Lol@ all of you! 🙂

    1. elwardio
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      +1
      Haha
      GL
      RMT
      One last time

    2. Jafalad
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Glad you weren't on earlier - we all laughing at you. 😉

      1. Brosstan
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        😮

  15. Legohair
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Any leaked pool line up?

    1. enrico.palazzo
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Nope

  16. Lilac Breasted Roller
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    This is it guys

    A) Smalling -> Milner
    B) Willian -> Arnie

  17. L9
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    capt kane or sallah? my rival is 45 pooints behind but has the triple captain chip to use

    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Break into their house and see who they're triple captain is

    2. aborg
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I would go Salah. You are much better off than I am...same situation but I am just leading by 2 points. He will probably TC Kane and he has no Salah.

  18. aborg
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Guys, I am heading my ML with just 2 points but am disadvataged as rival has TC chip left to play.

    All my bench are 100% not playing. Am I looking strong with such a lienup because I can't afford any of my starting 11 not to play. I already switched Pogba for Zaha and anything else would warant a hit.

    Ryan
    Robertson, Lowton, Vertonghen
    Son, Sterling, Zaha, Carroll, Salah (c)
    Jesus, Kane

    Bench: DeGea, Smalling, Chilwell, Barnes (ouchhh)

    Please help...any ideas to improve or not worth taking any hits? Your help is appreciated!

    1. enrico.palazzo
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Hopefully you don't have any curveballs... but unless you are doing a def transfer there's none worth doing

      GL!

      1. aborg
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks Enrico

    2. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I’m toying with Smalling to PVA to cover non starters. chances are it would be for a net 2 point hit at worst and potential goal/clean sheet

      1. aborg
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        hmmm....not a bad idea. How are you in your ML though?
        My situation is very dire as I only have 2 points over second place rival and taking a hit may be costly to me especially since he has TC left to play.....just can't decide

        1. Gandalf
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          20 points adrift, and I went ahead with that transfer and getting in Salah as captain. Felt like the right thing to do and hoping for a 3rd goal on the trot for PVA and a clean sheet and Salah brace to clear the gap (will be Kane captain for the leader). A further hit for Pogba to Zaha seems like a step too far, but given Zaha’s Home form looks tempting. Would do it if knew Pogba wasn’t starting

          1. aborg
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            So should I do Smalling to PVA too for a hit....I am in risk that i get a blank from a player if one of them does not play...eg: Son or Sterling....

            1. Gandalf
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 15 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              I think so.

            2. Gandalf
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 15 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Alexander-Arnold maybe a safer clean sheet bet as an alternative and some attacking upside. Chances are you won’t have a full team out, so the -4 point would be cleared down by a 2 point score if all else fails. So have to weigh up which you prefer

              1. aborg
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                thanks....I already have Robertson though and if Liverpool concede one I'll be screwed big time 🙂
                What do you think?

                1. Gandalf
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 15 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  -2 overall loss isn’t screwed big time 🙂 go for gut and decide if any players in price range might get you clean sheet and bonus / attacking return, then pull the trigger

            3. Gandalf
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 15 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              I hope you went ahead with PVA!

    3. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I'd want a backup def on the bench even for a hit so Smalling > VvD, PvA, Cresswell, etc...
      Or even Barnes > JAyew and bench Carroll.

  19. ooooo
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    ny transfer worth a -4 here? 0,6mil itb
    Ryan
    Vert Lowton Long
    Salah Sterling Son Zaha
    Kane Jesus Ayew

    DDG Smalling Chilwell L.Cook

  20. Roy Rovers
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Double Burnley defence....Lowton and Tarks or VDH with one of them?

  21. dashdriver
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Begovic
    Cresswell / Smalling / van Dijk
    Zaha / Salah (vc) / Alli / Arnautovic
    Kane (C)/ J. Ayew / Firmino

    Ryan / Milivojevic / Tarkowski / Laporte

    GTG?

  22. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Best Man United defender to get in?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Rashford

      1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        He's a striker 🙄

    2. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Bruce or Stam

      1. Fresh_From_Desh
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Valencia

  23. Howconvenient
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Is Smalling definitely not playing today?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Doesn't look like it

  24. Lone Wolf FPL
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Better pick

    A) Loftus-Cheek
    B) McArthur

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Cheeky

  25. Fred54
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Somehow on a -12...

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Rip

    2. Oven Glover
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Think you must have made 4 transfers... Only explanation.

      1. Fresh_From_Desh
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        I'm on a - 16

        Playing recklessly with nothing to loose.

        I like it

  26. insertcomedyname
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Last role of the dice:

    A) Smalling to VvD

    B) Smalling to Trent A-A and Gud to Zaha (-4)

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A

  27. _Gunner
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Best midfielder for maximum 6.6?

    1. Salarrivederci
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Right time for a Wijnaldum punt 😉 !

      1. Salarrivederci
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Otherwise perhaps Townsend/Milivojevic

  28. Origi-nal
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Repost from last page

    Already taken -4 this week but need Jordon Ibe to play to field 11.

    A) Hold Ibe and hope he gets minutes
    B) Ibe -> McArthur for another -4

  29. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Really hope this last gw is spectacular

    A bad low scoring gw to end the season would be a nightmare

    1. Fresh_From_Desh
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Wouldn't surprise given how the majority of the season has played out!