World Cup Fantasy Transfer Tips: The Big Numbers

To those tearing up their teams, destroying their defenses with wildcards or taking hits, here's something for you to consider. What have we really learnt from one round? Many were already advising us to buy big name players only (at least big for their teams), which may or may not be good advice, but how much has changed from one match regarding those big names?

Many of us have picked the wrong big names (for this round), and lament not only this, but the fact that we've had no decent squad players to fall back on. For some reason, this may have led many to the conclusion that they need either more big names or bigger names in their teams at the expense of the rest of the team. We see Ronaldo's name up in lights and we want a piece of the action. However, many had previously fantacised about Neymar and Messi's name up in lights pre-tournament, and we saw what happened there.

So how big is the risk of picking the wrong big name, and is it worth it? Here are the R1 scores for the most expensive players who've played so far:

12.0
NEYMAR: 2
LIONEL MESSI: 0
CRISTIANO RONALDO :16
Average: 6

11:0
HARRY KANE: 10
Average: ~10.0

10.5
LUIS SUAREZ: 2
Average: between 1 and 3

10.0
ROMELU LUKAKU: 10
KEVIN DE BRUYNE: 5
EDEN HAZARD: 5
ANTOINE GRIEZMANN: 8
SERGIO AGUERO: 6
Average: 6

9.5
TIMO WERNER: 2
EDINSON CAVANI: 2
THOMAS MUELLER: 1
Average: 1.33

9.0
MESUT OEZIL: 2
CHRISTIAN ERIKSEN: 6
DIEGO COSTA: 10
PAUL POGBA: 2
PHILIPPE COUTINHO: 7
ANGEL DI MARIA: 2
GONZALO HIGUAIN: 1
RAHEEM STERLING: 2
ANDRE SILVA: 1
OLIVIER GIROUD: 1
TONI KROOS: 2
DELE ALLI: 2
KYLIAN MBAPPE: 2
DAVID SILVA: 2
DRIES MERTENS: 6
GABRIEL JESUS: 2
LUKA MODRIC: 8
MARIO MANDZUKIC: 4
Average: 3.44

In short, I am jealous of anyone with Ronaldo in their team and with him in their team from R2. But let's not act like he's guaranteed a haul!

Aside from that, we can see that the variance between players is huge (as you would expect from a single gameround), so the cost of picking the wrong player has been huge. This could cause the biggest communal kneejerk seen in fantasy history, as managers seek out more big names out of rage against the Casual Machine that outscored them this week, making it even harder for them to catch and destroy that machine from a lesser position. If the variance is so huge at the top, why throw even more money into it unless there is a change in information (e.g. actual form (not fantasy points) or fixtures)? The same could and will happen again. There are only 2 rounds before the free wildcard, so your choice big name won't have time to average out to match his expected outcome over time.

Now consider that the average 5.5m player got about 3pts, which is immense considering the amount of riffraff you would never select from that group of ~50 players. Is it really time to forgo the benefits of rolling subs and captaincy, simply because Ronaldo got a high score this week. I mean, if Golovin was playing today instead of opening day, his owners could be shouting from the rooftops about rolling captaincy being the most valuable mechanism of the game.

Personally, I'm going to continue with my plan (perhaps not even use a transfer), by stacking up with attacking defenders and keeping expenditure tight at the top end of the market. Sure, Mr Ronaldo would tempt me on a wildcard, but that wildcard could be much more valuable down the line, so there's no need to panic. Similarly, I think hits are unlikely to be worth it without a guarantee of a player not starting.

I'm pretty sure I still have 12 starting players between 5.5 and 9.0 (besides De Arrascaeta, perhaps), with Varela and the GKs the only players under that price point. Picking up a couple of clean sheets and attacking returns from the defence can really make for a strong foundation for your fantasy rounds, and relying on the points available here also allows you to rely less on the big hitters for points. I really wish I could have 6 or 7 defenders!

Of course, this post is bound to backfire when Idowu, Escobar, Ronaldo, Neymar and Messi all fire in the next round, but it's my point of view, and in theory, I think it has some merit.

Finally, let's consider also the fact that one round of fantasy points is a terrible predictor of fantasy points in a following round. Dullard's the way for now!

I know everyone on here is starting to think that WC before GW3 is a bad idea and you should use it before the QF. Here is my reasoning not to, and to use it before GW3:

1 - Those teams that get their first 2 wins, and are sitting favorable in their group are more likely to rest their star players meaning you could have a complete benched starting 11.

2 - In GW3 you know exactly who needs to go balls out, and who has a favorable matchup. Say Egypt for example: if they win/tie GW2 then you know Salah will be very hungry against the Saudi’s and will want him on your squad for sure. You can load up on those teams needing a win playing weak opponents for some huge scores.

3 - There is never a guarantee to points, even in the QF. Most likely the games will be tighter, less scoring, more tactical because mistakes are more critical. In GW3 teams will be firing, counter attacking, doing whatever it takes to make it to the knockout stages.

Overall, I think there will be more points up for grabs in GW3 vs QF. Games at 3-2 vs 2-1. Teams against weaker opponents, with not necessarily a lose and go Home scenario.

My thoughts :). Hope this helps those who can’t make their decision.