Feature

Feature – Risk vs Reward

Not all Fantasy points are created equal. While we obviously want to maximise the total returns gained over the course of the season, on an individual level we also need to account for the cost of those points and the certainty with which they can be projected.

Cost is fairly easy to measure by looking at points divided by millions of pounds spent. Risk, however, is more tricky but will be defined here as an inconsistent player. For example, consider the two players below:

Gameweek 1Gameweek 2Gameweek 3Gameweek 4Average
Player A56555.25
Player B101285.25

Both players give you the same total points but Player B’s erratic production is much harder to anticipate and can have a negative impact for a variety of reasons:

Transfer targets become difficult to predict, as you don’t know if Player B is a legitimate Fantasy option or merely someone who had a couple of standout games. It’s much more likely that Player A will be able to maintain his production going forward.

Squad players become trickier to rotate in your first XI, as you’re unable to predict with any certainty just what they might contribute that Gameweek. If you play a player week in, week out, this isn’t an issue, but if you are looking to rotate a player, consistency can be a valuable asset.

Inconsistent players are far more difficult to manage when it comes to the captain’s armband, someone like Player B could explode or flop in any given Gameweek. Captain him every week and this is not a concern but if, like most Fantasy managers, you change your captain on a regular basis, this unpredictability just increases the risk involved.

This data can only be used alongside other factors as it is (a) retrospective rather than predictive and (b) it isn’t necessarily a good idea to rid yourself of all risk in your side as this will also limit potential.

That said, we can attempt to identify comparable players who might bring equally good production potential for less risk, and thus represent a better use of your team’s valuable funds.

Before we start, a note about the charts included in this article. They plot a players average (mean) Gameweek score, against the standard deviation of those scores – eg: the level of rise and fall week by week, as a representation of the “risk” involved with a player. The further a player appears to the right of the X axis (bottom horizontal axis) of the chart, the greater the deviation or risk involved. The further the player appears up the Y axis (left vertical axis) – the greater their average Gameweek score. Ultimately, we’re looking for players with strong Gameweek scores, with as low a risk factor as possible – these players give strong returns but, crucially, are also consistent.

Let’s begin by looking at the forwards…

We can immediately see that in general, higher reward is accompanied by higher risk. This stands to reason – the top players have the ability to score double digit points in any given Gameweek, and thus have further to fall when things don’t go their way. However, there are a couple of match-ups where the ‘risk’ involved could be deciding factor:

Sergio Aguero vs Wayne Rooney – The Manchester rivals have been tough to distinguish this year. Both have averaged around six points per game, though Rooney has edged ahead in the past fortnight in terms of points per week thanks to a couple of big performances.

The popular perception is that Rooney brings a level of consistency matched by few but, in fact, his points total has been boosted by a handful of huge performances, including back-to-back hat tricks in Gameweeks three and four. That in itself isn’t a big problem but the fact that these displays have come against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal made it likelier that Rooney wasn’t given the captain’s armband by his owners on those occasions.

Starting with Blackburn at home this weekend, Man City have the slightly more favourable fixtures in the short-term, and with Aguero consistently chipping in with good returns, he might just be the wiser choice right now.

Emmanuel Adebayor and Demba Ba vs. Elite forwards – there is a strong argument based on the above data, to plug both Adebayor and Ba into your lineup, using the funds saved to invest in midfield (where cheaper, consistent talent has been very hard to find). Both mid-price strikers have managed to deliver great consistency to match their high returns, as opposed to other flash-in-the-pans assets whose production has been erratic at best (we’re looking at you, Yakubu). Both Tottenham and Newcastle have a strong set of fixtures on the horizon, so while it isn’t controversial to suggest this pair is worth owning, there’s an argument to suggest that they can be owned instead of Rooney and Aguero, rather than alongside them.

Daniel Sturridge vs Edin Dzeko – Sturridge started the season on the sidelines and a lack of stand-out individual performances have really kept him out of the Fantasy headlines. His ownership has crept up into double digits but that level is still below what one would expect for a player with Sturridge’s risk/reward profile. He has found the net in eight different games, not far behind Rooney, Aguero and Ba (10) but a lack of substantial returns has suppressed his overall points total, and thus the interest of Fantasy managers. It goes without saying that Chelsea, and hence Sturridge, lack the upside of the two Manchester teams but if you’re looking to save some cash up top, or to differentiate from the widely-held Ba, Sturridge brings consistent returns, not often found for a player in his price range.

Steven Fletcher vs All other sub-7.0m forwards– the Wolves front man gained some attention during his solid run of form a few weeks back, but the above chart shows he may still be a touch undervalued. Yakubu and Zamora have both been more fancied Fantasy assets at some point this year but they carry much more risk than Fletcher, who has simply shown up and delivered close to five points per game at an almost unmatched level. Zamora may have a slightly higher upside but, if you’re a position to be rotating your third forward, Fletcher’s consistency makes him a very desirable option.

Steve Morison vs Danny Graham and Grant Holt – Morison has only delivered points on a league average basis, so this isn’t going to be the most exciting decision you make for your team. However, the attributes for a good third forward (who will often find himself benched) must include a level of consistency and Morison enjoys an advantage in that area, ahead of the group of comparable four-point-players. He’s found himself benched in the last two weeks and those concerns must obviously be addressed first, but if you believe he can get back into the Norwich lineup, he remains one of the best budget forwards to own.

You can immediately see the correlation is stronger among midfielders with fewer outliers to highlight. There are however, a couple of familiar names that are worth highlighting:

David Silva vs. Everyone else – Okay, admittedly, highlighting the second-top scoring midfielder around, owned by 44% of FPL managers isn’t going to win any awards for investigative journalism. However, idle wildcards are the devil’s tools and with Gareth Bale and Clint Dempsey continuing to impress, there may be many managers tempted to turn their collective backs on the Spanish maestro.

While looking for the next big thing is obviously a sound idea, the above data merely lends further weight to the fact that Silva is simply too good to drop. Bale has the edge on him in terms of pure point production per game but he has been significantly more unpredictable, raising the question as to whether Bale’s form will continue for the remainder of the season.

Silva, on the other hand, has failed to score or assist a goal in back-to-back starts just twice all season. When spending 10.0 plus, the security of knowing what you’re getting for your money is a huge benefit, especially if that stability is not accompanied by a downgrade in overall production. Assuming most Fantasy managers reading this already own Silva, this may be one area where apathy wins out . Doing nothing might just be the way to go with Silva – that transfer itch might be better scratched elsewhere.

Theo Walcott vs Mid range midfielders – Consistency isn’t the first word you associate with the frustrating Walcott but, in Fantasy terms at least, he has been exactly that this season. The winger chipped in with nine games of between five and nine points compared to fourteen disappointing outings, which doesn’t sound great in a vacuum but actually compares favourably to several more fancied options: Stephane Sessegnon (9 vs 14), Nani (8 vs 14) and Dempsey (8 vs 13). The high scores have been limited, which has really kept Walcott out of Fantasy managers’ minds and thus he represents a good buying opportunity given his high floor and mid-range ceiling. Having been dropped for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain the FA Cup trip to Sunderland last weekend, however, Walcott’s starts will need to be monitored, with a first-team starting place perhaps under question for the first time this season.

Consistency of defensive points is always going to be tied more to a player’s team than his own ability, so the analysis here is less telling, but a couple of names still pop up which deserve a quick mention:

Kyle Walker vs Benoit Assou-Ekotto – With a couple of big performances over the past six weeks, Assou-Ekotto has leapt to the top of the defensive points charts, though the above would suggest that team-mate Walker represents better value. Aside from the fact he is slightly cheaper and owned by less than half as many Fantasy managers, Walker has also delivered slightly better per-game returns on a much more consistent basis. Throw in Walker’s comparable, or marginally better, performance stats (including shots on goal and key passes) and you have a clear cut differential candidate who should remain on the radar.

Vincent Kompany vs Thomas Vermaelen – Vermaelen has rarely been a hot Fantasy property this term, but his positioning in our chart illustrates a worthy point of note. Defensive goalscorers obviously carry significant potential but the unpredictability of those returns can often limit a player’s value. If the goals have come in games where logic suggests the player should have been benched in our Fantasy lineups, they may have been wasted, but would have still boosted a player in the overall scoring charts.

Vermaelen has earned a large portion of his points from offensive production so, unless you are willing to play him every week, he looks way too unpredictable to justify his decent returns when compared with someone like Kompany, whose production has been much flatter, with City’s defensive returns his bread and butter.

Chris Glover Creator of the plfantasy blog, providing a stats focused approach to fantasy football. Exiled to Canada but still prefer my sports played on grass rather than ice. Follow them on Twitter

927 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Dirty_Harry
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    I'm not buying this Silva is a must malarky. I had silva from day one, then when he reached 45%ish ownership I dropped him. Since then I've done nothing but rise in rankings. From 1.2M to under 100k. 18 out of 20 green arrows. =

    I think for 10M to get 5-6 points every week is just not good enough. I can get the same (and more) from Sess, Demps, Walters, Valencia who are all cheeper.

    The facty that he has so high ownership means when he scores it doen't really make a difference to ranking cuase most pople have him, but when he doesn't score, thats 10M that I've used elsewhere to get more points. Proff is in the rankings.

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    1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      i'm around the 10k mark and have had silva for most of the season

      you can use statistics to prove anything

      89.9% of people know that

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      1. Dirty_Harry
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah, ok, but I'm pretty sure Silva is the reason I've gone up in rankings. Saying that, I think YAAY's return will mean more points for Silva

        Oh, did you start high? I diodn't have rooney captain for teh first 3 weeks, so started from teh 1.4m mark to get to below 100k

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        1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          1.3 mil first week but then shot up to 40k the next week and have spent most of the time in the top 100k and risen steadily

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        2. Christina.
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          If Silva's 5-6 pts are the reason for you not having him, then I doubt not having his 5-6 pointers are the reason you went up the rankings. Face it you had a shite start to the season and it did not take much to move up the rankings.

          Cutting down on the hits, good (c) choices and BOOM.

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          1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            i don't want to smash your back door in any more

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            1. Christina.
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              huh?

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    2. @FuzzyWarbles
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Proff is in the pudding

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      1. In Like Flynn.
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        You cook tutors?

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    3. The Finnisher
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Walters? lol.

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      1. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah, I saw that.

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    4. Scroobius Mac
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      When he scores and you don't have him you miss out by however much he scores.
      If he's owned by a greater number of people it affects your ranking more.
      If he goes balistic and scores 18 points against Blackburn that will affect your ranking more than if Mata or VdV or Young does.
      If you think Silva will score the best pick Silva - ignore the ownership.

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    5. 1966 was a great year for E…
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      It's pretty easy to get green arrows when you're starting from 1.2m, though.

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    6. Bendy Busdriver
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      +1

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    7. Connster
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      "I can get the same (and more) from Sess, Demps, Walters, Valencia who are all cheeper."

      This is only true since Jan '12 at the earliest, this wasnt true at the start of the season when Silva was being consistent....

      Thats the point!

      did you have sess, demps and valencia back then.... i doubt it

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  2. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    pretty epic article

    i don't recognise the guy who wrote it though?

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    1. King Nil Miss ✩
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      You should visit his blog, pretty good stuff!

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    2. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      He's a famous actor.

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      1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        i assume you are a radiohead fan? are you in the uk? are you as frustrated as me by the lack of gigs here??

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        1. Arse Craic
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Patience DD. They're gonna play the UK when they're at their peak. Hopefully a few Irish dates, so I can spoil myself.

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          1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            at their peak?!

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            1. Arse Craic
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              On the tour. They'll be super tight when they hit the UK.

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              1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                • 13 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                better not be some enormo-venues

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  3. Sheep Flavour
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Any Rooney news? Starting?

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  4. @FuzzyWarbles
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    wrapping up the work week. time for fantasy CL madness!!! time for the derby!!!!

    COYS!!!

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    1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      i want you to nail those gooners

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    2. Connster
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      COYS...

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  5. JT's Dog
      12 years, 1 month ago

      can anyone tell me if cabaye is fit to play this week, just looking for short term mid and he looks best option, but haven't followed him to know why he missed last three games

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      1. JT's Dog
          12 years, 1 month ago

          anyone

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          1. Arse Craic
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            He's back...he was suspended for 3 games.

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            1. JT's Dog
                12 years, 1 month ago

                ty

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            1. JT's Dog
                12 years, 1 month ago

                ty also

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              • JT's Dog
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  nice work, your own?

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              • Demba
                • 12 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Yeah he will start. He's been suspended the last 3 games - at home to a managerless wolves he looks a good choice.

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                1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                  • 13 Years
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  they have a manager!

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                  1. JT's Dog
                      12 years, 1 month ago

                      the wolves bit is good enough for me

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                  2. JT's Dog
                      12 years, 1 month ago

                      ty once more

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                2. GoonerByron
                  • 12 Years
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  Who to start this week out of Sigurdsson and McClean??

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                  1. Arse Craic
                    • 14 Years
                    12 years, 1 month ago

                    McClean

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                    1. Incorrigible Brat
                      • 12 Years
                      12 years, 1 month ago

                      mclean if u dont have sess
                      siggy if u have sess.
                      btw if u have sess and mclean, play mclean over sess.

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                      1. 1966 was a great year for E…
                        • 13 Years
                        12 years, 1 month ago

                        Nah, play Sess over McClean if you have both.

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                3. div
                  • 12 Years
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  Need to transfer Lidegaard and have 1.3 in the bank, 0.9 of which will be used for Rooney (depending he doesn't rise until Saturday night.

                  Vorm is my other keeper, so Lindegaard >

                  1. Schwarzer (rotates good, but already have Senderos)
                  2. Mignolet (not great rotation but cheap and have no defence cover)
                  3. Sorensen (rotation risk and have no defence cover)
                  4. Other.

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                  1. JT's Dog
                      12 years, 1 month ago

                      mig, more likely to get CS, forget rotation

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                      1. div
                        • 12 Years
                        12 years, 1 month ago

                        Cheers for that, might just get him...

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                  2. Coleman Feel The Moyes!
                    • 12 Years
                    12 years, 1 month ago

                    4 point hit, 2 transfers,

                    Current Team:

                    Mig
                    Richards Raylor Kelly
                    Silva Bale Sess McClean
                    RVP Bent Fletcher

                    Subs: Sinclair, Shawcross, Williams.

                    Fletch > Ba (C) obvs.

                    5.3 with Sinclair making way

                    I'm thinking Siggy, Cleverley, Scholesy or am open to any other suggestions?

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                    1. Incorrigible Brat
                      • 12 Years
                      12 years, 1 month ago

                      Siggy is the best option. And bent?? Don't see among the goals this week.

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                      1. Coleman Feel The Moyes!
                        • 12 Years
                        12 years, 1 month ago

                        Against Wigan? They're bottom of the league for a reason, IMO I think he'll bag, benching McClean pains me tho...lost 9 points last GW through that call.

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                  3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    12 years, 1 month ago

                    Group F? Lets be having you! 😀

                    Europa League Group F Match day 1 Preview
                    Well, here we have six-season veteran King Eric (5,805), an assiduous poster if ever there was, joined by Microcuts, Drinking Red Bull and the popular, if sarcastic, SSK Ginkvan, whose beautiful old grav I hope we will be seeing again soon! A very strong pool! Perhaps Cantona’s Crew will justify the arrogant cut of their collars, or be stampeded and creased by Kewell Runnings, both chased very hard by R-U-N-N-O-F-T. It will take all the cunning, skills and dirty tricks of Mutant Ninja Skrtels to upset this applecart!
                    Slovan Bratislava (SSK Ginkvan) vs Athletic (Microcuts)
                    A difficult match to call - the Artist vs the Athlete - both have Taiwo, and similar midfields.
                    Injury / Team News:
                    Slovan Bratislava - Already used his free transfer - has Valencia gone, or did he give Cahill the push? Evidence of a certain amount of Bandwagon hopping here.
                    Athletic - Certain amount of panic evident here! Two transfers already made for a four point hit, making it four in a row! No injuries, apparently, although Richards may be doubtful.
                    Predicted Line Ups
                    Slovan Bratislava: Krul; Vermaelen, Richards, Taiwo; Bale, Silva, Dempsey, Sessegnon; Zamora, Graham, van Persie
                    Athletic: Vorm; Richards, Santon, Taiwo; Bale, Silva, Dempsey, Walters; Aguero, Ba, van Persie
                    Match Verdict - Away win - forwards too strong.
                    PSG (King Eric) vs Salzburg (Drinking Red Bull)
                    Can Drinking Red Bull wipe the sneer off King Eric’s face?. Both have minor problems to solve, but I think experience and home advantage will turn this in King Eric’s favour
                    Injury / Team News
                    PSG - Two free transfers available - although as he has used only 19, they may not be necessary!
                    Salzburg: After a huge leap of nearly a million places, game weeks 8 to18, R-U-N-N-O-F-T has tripped. Used his free transfer - did Valencia go?
                    Predicted Line Ups
                    PSG: Schwarzer; Kompany, Evans, Santon; Dempsey, Bale, Silva, Sigurdsson; Ba, Dzeko, van Persie
                    Salzburg: Sorenson; Richards, Santon, Rangel; Bale, Dempsey, Ben Arfa, ❓ ; Zamora, Aguero, Van Persie
                    Match Verdict - Home win

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                    1. HappyAnkit
                      • 12 Years
                      12 years, 1 month ago

                      Awesome Work Doos.
                      I wonder who will do it for Group C.

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                      1. Team Hayemaker
                        • 14 Years
                        12 years, 1 month ago

                        these long posts about some random competetion are starting get annoying.

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                        1. 1966 was a great year for E…
                          • 13 Years
                          12 years, 1 month ago

                          You don't have to read them.

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                          1. Team Hayemaker
                            • 14 Years
                            12 years, 1 month ago

                            i dont read there crap, but they are bloody hard to ignore considering the length of them.

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                            1. isacki: full casual
                              • 12 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              OK let's give you some nice short RMT's. Oh wait, 10000 of them.

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                            2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 14 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              *their
                              *this
                              *that

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                        2. JT's Dog
                            12 years, 1 month ago

                            u can buy a mouse with little wheel to scroll quicker, modern technology is amazing

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                            1. Team Hayemaker
                              • 14 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              shut up you tit

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                              1. JT's Dog
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  you will find i am none of the below so you are wrong again

                                  tit[tit]   Origin tit1    /tɪt/ Show Spelled[tit] Show IPA
                                  noun
                                  1. a titmouse.
                                  2. any of various other small birds.
                                  3. Archaic . a girl or young woman; hussy.
                                  4. Archaic . a small or poor horse; nag.

                                  Explore the Visual Thesaurus »Related Words for : tit
                                  bosom, breast, knocker, titmouse
                                  View more related words »

                                  Dictionary.com Unabridgedtit2    /tɪt/ Show Spelled[tit] Show IPA
                                  noun
                                  1. a teat.
                                  2. Slang: Vulgar . a breast

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                                  1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                                    • 13 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    i always thought you WERE a hussy?

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                                    1. JT's Dog
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        damn, and i thought i got away with it, oh gaymaker you are right i am a tit

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                            2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 14 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              Not me! I have writer's cramp, writer's block - anything you like! 😉 I may well do three more next round, if you like ... 😉

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                              1. HappyAnkit
                                • 12 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                I would have done it myself but my exams are approaching.

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                                1. JT's Dog
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    exams, get your priorities in order man, where will exams get you nowdays

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                                2. The Light Knight
                                  • 12 Years
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  yes you. finish the job you started. all groups each week

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                                  1. 1966 was a great year for E…
                                    • 13 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    No good deed goes unpunished, eh Doos 😉

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                                  2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                    • 14 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    😆 Not a chance - despite the backhanded compliment ... 🙂

                                    I never promised you a rose garden ... 😉

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                                    1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                                      • 13 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      but you still smell as sweet

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                                      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                        • 14 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        😆 Compliment? 😯

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                                        1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                                          • 13 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          never

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                                          1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                            • 14 Years
                                            12 years, 1 month ago

                                            You may be awful - but I like you!!! 😀

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                                          2. udit
                                            • 13 Years
                                            12 years, 1 month ago

                                            😯 Compliment?

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                          • JK - Cønt ⭐
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 12 Years
                            12 years, 1 month ago

                            anyone else temped by a Rooney and Welbeck double up from GW28?

                            Am looking for a decent sub 6.5 million replacement for the Gerbil. Yak is inconsistent (though he is still an option), my main rival has Fletcher (who is injury prone) Morison seems to have lost his place. That leaves Holt, Graham and Welbeck as my other options.

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                          • Sheep Flavour
                            • 12 Years
                            12 years, 1 month ago

                            With Rooney a doubt...DW a shout for a start Sat?

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                            1. JK - Cønt ⭐
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 12 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              Welbeck will start with or without Rooney, he is first choice now.

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                              1. Loooser
                                • 12 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                first choice? Even if Rooney fit and ready?

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                                1. Sheep Flavour
                                  • 12 Years
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  And with Han scoring yesterday can we really call Wellbeck first choice?

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                                  1. JK - Cønt ⭐
                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                    • 12 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    well wait and see who starts on Sat (as I think Rooney will) but even with Hernandez fit, Welbeck has been starting regularly in the PL.. Trust me I'm an OT Season Ticket holder, Welbeck is first choice.

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                                2. JK - Cønt ⭐
                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                  • 12 Years
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  yup Rooney and Welbeck is the first choice front 2 now. Hernandez is back in his role as super-sub.

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                                  1. Scroobius Mac
                                    • 13 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    Rubbish - complete codswallop.
                                    Stop presenting this as some sort of gospel fact when it patently isn't.
                                    Hernandez will start some games, Welbeck will start some games and quite possibly Berbatov will start some games. Even if Welbeck starts more than Hernandez it doesn't make him first choice.

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                                    1. Scroobius Mac
                                      • 13 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      Actually I'm confusing the terms first choice with nailed on.
                                      I tend to use two interchangeably - if you are suggesting that Welbeck is nailed on for the rest of the season (providing he's fit) then you are wrong. If you are suggesting that he will start more than Hernandez - you may be right.

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                                      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                        • 14 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        Well, I hope he bloody well starts the next two, and scores a few!!! 😉

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                                        1. JK - Cønt ⭐
                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                          • 12 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          do you own him Doos?

                                          See my post above 😛

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                                          1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                            • 14 Years
                                            12 years, 1 month ago

                                            I do, I do, I do, I do ...

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                                      2. JK - Cønt ⭐
                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                        • 12 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        it is the 2nd of those 2, Like I said I'm at OT most weeks and so I understand Fergie's rotation policy better than most (this is why Rooney, Evans and Evra are the best United options IMO as they are nailed on. (and even if Evans isn't he's cheap enough not to worry.)

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                                    2. JK - Cønt ⭐
                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                      • 12 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      Hernandez has started 5 games whilst Welbeck has been fit, and 3 of those he played with him.

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                                      1. Top 210 Club
                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                        • 13 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        Couple of weeks ago Fergie admitted it was a mistake not starting Hernandez against Arsenal... Think Rooney is the only one nailed on up front...

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                                      2. isacki: full casual
                                        • 12 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        Real question is which proportion of matches has Welbeck started when he's fit?

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                                        1. JK - Cønt ⭐
                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                          • 12 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          he has been fit for 19 games, he has started 15 of them the ones he didn't were Villa (when he was coming back and Hernandez got injured) Stoke away, Norwich and Newcastle away.

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                                          1. isacki: full casual
                                            • 12 Years
                                            12 years, 1 month ago

                                            Definitely right about first choice then. Nailed on no, but no-one is really with United apart from Evra.

                                            I kept Welbeck for a few weeks a little while ago based on very similar reasoning, that Rooney and Welbeck were the preferred front two

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                          • Loooser
                            • 12 Years
                            12 years, 1 month ago

                            Vorm or Mignolet in the goal this GW?

                            I have also Naylor, whom I will bench if Vorm plays. I am also worried since STO will be in a full strength.

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                            1. Sheep Flavour
                              • 12 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              Ming...WBA arent fantastic at home...

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                              1. Loooser
                                • 12 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                do you think that Crouch and Co. could score?

                                If Vorm is out then I should play Naylor (to cover possible SWA CS), but i have Kmp, Santon and Evans in front of him.

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                                1. Sheep Flavour
                                  • 12 Years
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  Its up to you dude as its your team which is what I say to everyone but I think while Stoke might not win they will score one at least and WBA for me, scoring is less likely.

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                                2. Loooser
                                  • 12 Years
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  sure, but consulting friends makes it easier tosee other alternatives and possibilities. Especially for people like me, occasional players.

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                                  1. Sheep Flavour
                                    • 12 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    No thats cool, same as me 🙂

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                          • goon87
                            • 13 Years
                            12 years, 1 month ago

                            RMT:

                            Given (Vorm)
                            Evans, Richards, Simpson (Kelly, BAE)
                            Silva, Sess, Bale, Dempsey (Moses)
                            Aguero, RVP, Graham

                            I don't have the money for Ba but I can swap Graham>Welbeck.
                            Thoughts please?

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                          • CatMac
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 14 Years
                            12 years, 1 month ago

                            Hello all. Seeing as there is a different crowd on here now, this is just to let you all now that Ankit has set up a Formula 1 fantasy team, details below. It's fairly straightforward to play so wont take up too much time and best of all it's free. So come and join us 🙂

                            Site: http://fantasy.etana.co.za/f1fantasy/
                            League Code: 16873178398881

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                            1. JK - Cønt ⭐
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 12 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              oh good did my team yesterday, was gonna ask about a league. Thanks dude.

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                            2. Loooser
                              • 12 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              it seems quite boring.... you basically pick the drivers and thats it.

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                              1. Loooser
                                • 12 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                or?

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                            3. HappyAnkit
                              • 12 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              Cheers Catmac.

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                            4. udit
                              • 13 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              Catmac, you like my new grav? At least some one does 🙂 But I've changed it now, see how you like the new one, Oh and you support McClaren? tsk tsk 😉

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                              1. HappyAnkit
                                • 12 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                This one is better.
                                I support Ferrari & You?
                                BTW tsk tsk ❓

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                                1. udit
                                  • 13 Years
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  I used to support Ferrari like crazy when Schumacher and Raikonnen where there, now not so much, I support Schumacher, so Mercedes, tsk tsk for supporting McLosers.

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                              2. CatMac
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                • 14 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                How many changes is that today? 😀

                                Seriously though, I like that one, much more positive. And yes, I've been a McLaren supporter for years, although I think Force India could spring a few surprises this year 😐

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                                1. udit
                                  • 13 Years
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  4 I think 🙂

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                            5. Gigging Order
                              • 12 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              Thanks, will set up a team later and join

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                            6. 1966 was a great year for E…
                              • 13 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              Something else for people to get moody about 😉

                              'Grrr, all these Europa League posts.' 😡
                              'Grrr, all these F1 posts' 😡
                              Grrr, all these cricket posts' 😡

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                              1. udit
                                • 13 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                Surprisingly enough I love all three 🙂 I hope I'm not the only one.

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                              2. JT's Dog
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  i love posts that have three grrrs in them

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                                  1. 1966 was a great year for E…
                                    • 13 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    If you imagine a fist being waved at the sky at the same time it's even better.

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                              3. Incorrigible Brat
                                • 12 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                Just joined the league!!!! 😀

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                            7. markymark
                              • 13 Years
                              12 years, 1 month ago

                              Richards declared fit for Blackburn game http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/17151322

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                              1. In Like Flynn.
                                • Has Moderation Rights
                                • 13 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                Booo!

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                                1. JT's Dog
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    booo you

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                                2. Incorrigible Brat
                                  • 12 Years
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  YES!!!

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                              2. Kings of Lyon ★
                                • 13 Years
                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                Will all this Europa league and champs league chat on here stop after this gw or is it here for the long haul?

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                                1. isacki: full casual
                                  • 12 Years
                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                  In absolute terms - no
                                  As a proportion of posts made on the board - absolutely

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                                  1. Kings of Lyon ★
                                    • 13 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    Hmmm I can deal with that. I'd happily look through 100 rmts. I don't care much for the history of slovan librec or who are the main rival of MyPa

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                                    1. JT's Dog
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        now you have me wondering who the main rivals of MyPa are?

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                                  2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                    • 14 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    🙂 Right on 'til the end of the road! 😉

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                                    1. Kings of Lyon ★
                                      • 13 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      I was afraid of that 🙁

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                                    2. Team Hayemaker
                                      • 14 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      you would think Doosra would spend a bit more time concentrating on his own team than writing about some random tourney but he seems happy with finshing up with a 6 figure score.

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                                      1. isacki: full casual
                                        • 12 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        It's called altruism mate, if you're not familiar with the word look it up.

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                                        1. udit
                                          • 13 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          Ha 😀 Perfect.

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                                        2. JT's Dog
                                            12 years, 1 month ago

                                            brill, that is first time altruism has ever been used in a put down

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                                        3. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                                          • 13 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          LOL, sorry

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                                        4. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                          • 14 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          *ranking

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                                        5. udit
                                          • 13 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          Tsk tsk, you really need to improve your spelling buddy.

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                                    3. In Like Flynn.
                                      • Has Moderation Rights
                                      • 13 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      Is this another one you missed KoL?

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                                      1. Kings of Lyon ★
                                        • 13 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        It ismate, hence the bitterness 😉 I don't even know who you are 🙁

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                                        1. In Like Flynn.
                                          • Has Moderation Rights
                                          • 13 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          In Like Flynn, Sorry. I may have to address that and stick ILF in there somewhere.

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                                          1. Kings of Lyon ★
                                            • 13 Years
                                            12 years, 1 month ago

                                            Ahh okk, ill remember that 🙂 Hope you're well mate 🙂

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                                            1. In Like Flynn.
                                              • Has Moderation Rights
                                              • 13 Years
                                              12 years, 1 month ago

                                              Yep, not three bad thanks KoL. Off to new post.

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                                  3. hunkydory
                                    • 13 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    Mignolet, Lindegaard
                                    Kompany, Evans, Simpson, Rangel, Kelly
                                    Dempsey, McClean, Valencia, Silva, Bale
                                    RvP, Ba, Aguero

                                    I have 2 FTs, 0.3 in bank. I'd like to dispose of Lindegaard & Rangel this week, but for whom?:

                                    A) Cahill & Bogdan
                                    B) Krul & Caulker

                                    Advice welcome!

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                                    1. Kings of Lyon ★
                                      • 13 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      A outta they two

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                                  4. div
                                    • 12 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    RMT please

                                    Mignolet
                                    Richards, Evans, Raylor
                                    Silva, Sess, Dempsey, Bale
                                    RVP, Aguero(vc), Ba(c)

                                    Vorm, McClean, Rangel, Senderos

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                                    1. Loooser
                                      • 12 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      perfect. I am thinking Vorm or Mign myself. Shall I do Mign?

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                                      1. div
                                        • 12 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        I just done it myself, great value and good chance of CS.

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                                  5. pjomara
                                    • 13 Years
                                    12 years, 1 month ago

                                    The article is very interesting but there are two flaws.
                                    1. Describing Spurs as having favourable fixtures on the horizon. No they don't, not until GW 31 by my reckoning.
                                    2. Seeing a high St. Dev as a negative thing, particularly with midfielders.
                                    Firstly, every player is going to get a good few 2s and 3s, so if you've a high st. dev. you're getting occasional high GW scores which is a good thing.
                                    Secondly, on investigating these high GW scores you might spot a trend for these high scoring GWs such as home games against anyone, and away games vs bottom 6 clubs , so you could play them for those games and drop them for the likely 2 pointers, thus giving you a much higher average overall.
                                    Thirdly, players like Silva that have played a part in every game so he has no 0s which helps him have a low st. dev. Nani and many others have missed a few games and so these 0s will raise their st. dev. and also reduce their mean score, however with them on your team you'll have a sub to come in so it's not like these 0s will reflect in a 0 on your team for the week.

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                                    1. ROBERTO MANKINI
                                      • 12 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      so 3 flaws you mean....

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                                    2. JT's Dog
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        the graphs are nice to look at

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                                    3. Scroobius Mac
                                      • 13 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      NEW POST

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                                    4. isacki: full casual
                                      • 12 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      BBC

                                      1009:
                                      BREAKING NEWS
                                      Terry Connor has been named Wolves manager until the end of the season, the club have confirmed.

                                      OK IMO this is basically a white flag; if they really were going to make some effort to stay up they'd bring in an experienced pro. Will be targeting matches against Wolves from here on in, could be some real thrashings I think.

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                                      1. Wild Rover
                                        • 13 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        Nobody wants the job

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                                        1. isacki: full casual
                                          • 12 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          Come on now, that's a little unrealistic. A vacancy at a Premier League club not in acute financial distress and that have only recently dropped into the relegation zone?

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                                        2. pjomara
                                          • 13 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          Is Terry Connor, Emile Heskey's dad?

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                                      2. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                                        • 13 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        it's nice to see a black guy getting the role with so few in management but they now won't get that much needed boost of having a new manager at the club

                                        they certainly will drop

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                                        1. isacki: full casual
                                          • 12 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          Definitely. Makes sacking Mick even more of an error IMO.

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                                          1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                            • 14 Years
                                            12 years, 1 month ago

                                            Not so much an error - more a catastrophe. Made the club look prattish, now.

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                                        2. Christina.
                                          • 14 Years
                                          12 years, 1 month ago

                                          Thks for the link to the"kick down the backdoor" post. I did not read it first time round and when the w*nker posted it again this morning I obviously missed all the replies.

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                                          1. isacki: full casual
                                            • 12 Years
                                            12 years, 1 month ago

                                            Intriguing... but not as intriguing/horrific as this grav... seriously, between you and Nino I really don't know which to retch to first

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                                            1. udit
                                              • 13 Years
                                              12 years, 1 month ago

                                              I think the telepathy machine is on again Isacki.

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                                            2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                              • 14 Years
                                              12 years, 1 month ago

                                              😆 Neat bit of abuse there!!! 😀

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                                            3. Christina.
                                              • 14 Years
                                              12 years, 1 month ago

                                              Well take it up with "I WAS THE ONLY ONE IN MY ML TO CAPTAIN DEMPSEY, ALSO HAD SORENSEN AS KEEPER"...he complained about me using a gravatar of my imaginary wife.

                                              Apparently it gave him a hard on. So I had to make a change.

                                              BTW, you are not an oil painting yourself...

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                                              1. isacki: full casual
                                                • 12 Years
                                                12 years, 1 month ago

                                                True that.

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                                                1. isacki: full casual
                                                  • 12 Years
                                                  12 years, 1 month ago

                                                  *Sob*

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                                    5. Sheep Flavour
                                      • 12 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      Any news yet on the LFC V EFC DGW?

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                                    6. Shatner's Bassoon
                                      • 13 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      Great article, hope to see more like it. Always hard to picture the multiple variables on a 2D graph - price might have been an interesting third variable. Tempted to have a go at using a multivariate analysis method like PCA of PLS to see which stats on a player results in highest point turnover. perhaps a job for next season.

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                                    7. steveb79
                                      • 12 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      Should I keep this starting line up or bring anyone in off of the bench??

                                      Krul
                                      Cahill – Kompany (V) – Santon
                                      Bale – Sessignon – Yaya – Dempsey
                                      RVP – Aguero (C) – P Cisse

                                      Vorm – Cleverley – N Taylor – Enrique

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                                    8. Twisted Saltergater
                                      • 14 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      A quite brilliant article, right up my street! Cheers Chris.

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                                      1. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
                                        • 12 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        +1, excellent read

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                                    9. Croco
                                      • 12 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      Any reason of not getting Pilkington? Norwich's fixtures seems ok after playing against Man utd

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                                      1. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
                                        • 12 Years
                                        12 years, 1 month ago

                                        Rotation always a risk with Lambert

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                                    10. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
                                      • 12 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      Is the general consensus that Samba will not be included in the Blackburn squad to face Man City? If so, think I will go Aguero (C) over Ba. It worked last time I captained a striker against Blackburn ...

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                                    11. Back on the horse
                                      • 13 Years
                                      12 years, 1 month ago

                                      Good article, I like it.

                                      I didn't read it all because it was too long and I haven't taken notice of anything in it because I like to go with my gut in FPL... but I liked it in principle

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