For many, this week may be their last chance to consider a crazy alternative chip-strategy. With this in mind, here are some oft overlooked, alternative gameweeks (GWs), in which it is possible to play your Free Hit (FH) chip: GW34, 35, 36, 37 and 38!
Remember, it’s completely up to you to decide what’s best for your team. As J0E says on the Scoutcast, it’s not a matter of which rival faction you wish to enlist in for FH Strategy War II, but rather about what kind of discipline your players are crying out for (or something like that).
Gameweek 38 Free Hit
As an example, here are 9 benefits of playing the FH in GW38:
1. Increase the power of this incredible Unlimited Transfers chip by using when you have your largest budget of the season.
2. On a day when many Premier League managers might experiment with youngsters and wasters, you could be handpicking your players with the maximum possible information, right up to the 14:00 Sunday deadline. (Note: the “handpicking” rhetoric can be, and currently is being (right this second), applied to other GWs).
3. You can pick players from teams with something to fight for on the final day of the league, rather than players from mid-table teams with their minds on James Milner’s Summer Beach Party Extravaganza.
4. Having perhaps used your Wildcard (WC) in GW34 with a Bench Boost (BB) in GW35 in mind, you won’t need to carry your bloated booty all the way to the final day – unlike Luke Shaw.
5. Your GW34 WC can be tailored specifically towards GWs 34-37, which improves the average quality of your picks for those four gameweeks. For example, you could triple on Wolves and Brighton assets when, otherwise, you might only pick one or two from both teams to maintain a ‘balanced’ team, capable of a respectable GW38 score. You then have the opportunity to sell these players before their dire final gameweek fixtures, when both teams might be already safe from relegation, and both teams match up against one of the two sides battling for the league title (Liverpool and Manchester City, respectively).
6. Playing the FH earlier in the season effectively burns a precious Free Transfer (FT). Playing it in GW38 allows the maximum use of FTs from GW2-37: 34 FTs (after two WCs), as opposed to 33 FTs (after two WCs and one FH). The FT you burn in GW38 is effectively meaningless, as you cannot save it for the following week (nor the following season, unfortunately). Over the GW31-33 period, this would give you an extra FT to dust off your base team – a luxury which FH speculators will not afforded with their dusty old “Boomerang” teams from two gameweeks prior.
7. You can play the Triple Captain (TC) in GW32 to give you 2 extra fixtures. GW32 may be the best opportunity to maximise the return from this chip, as City could play whipping boys, Fulham and Cardiff. You could also consider employing the BB in GW32, which could include some potent single GW players from Liverpool, Leicester and Bournemouth, for example, leaving GW35 open for the TC.
8. An optimal FH in GW31-33 may require more hits than an optimal non-FH strategy (in which you aim to minimise transfers). A lack of fixtures for your non-FH team could be offset by any hits necessary for an optimal FH in GW31-33 (See ‘Save the Chip Fun: Count the Fixtures‘ below). The advantage for the FH strategy, in this scenario, is effectively the total points scored by the additional player across the two non-chip gameweeks (e.g. 3 points + 3 points for David Brooks = 6 points) less the hit (or appearance points) across these two gameweeks (i.e. minus 4 points = 2 point). A manageable loss, perhaps?
9. The differential element of this late play may be excruciatingly pleasurable.
Analysis
One potential pitfall of saving the FH would be the lack of knowledge we currently have about the double GW. However, if the earth-shattering power of the FH in GW32 stems from the quality and quantity of the double GW schedule, it’s possible the fixture announcements will also be a disappointment those managers who’ve committed to playing it in that week, as the potential gains may not be as unimaginable as imagined.
The major issue with saving the FH is essentially missing out on the benefits of playing the FH in GW31-33. Therefore, when considering an alternative strategy, it’s vital to consider how much benefit the FH will bring your team in GW31-33. Forget about comparing your length to other managers’ shiny swords. Forget about shielding yourself against temporary rank drops.
If playing your FH in GW31-GW33 would only minimally increase your points potential, then it may be time to consider utilising the chip in a future week, such as GW38, as you may be able to gain even more points in the future than you would lose by saving the chip over the next few gameweeks. For the vast majority of managers, especially those who committed to a specific chip-strategy a couple of weeks ago or more, this may not be feasible. However, it may feasable, and even productive, for you. Regardless, you’re gonna have a fun figuring it out!
Saving the Chip Fun: Count the Fixtures
As an exercise, simply count the number of fixtures you expect to get between GW31-33. This does not account for the quality of fixtures (nor the quality of the players and expected points), but you may be surprised to find how well your non-FH team stacks up against your potential FH team across this period, at least in terms of an appearance count.
NB: I have included captaincy and ‘triple’ captaincy in my calculations. I used Fantasy Football Scout user Jarvish’s double GW predictions along with Ben Crellin’s spreadsheet to help guide my ‘plausible’ team-building.
Plausible Team 1
STRATEGY: FREE HIT CHIP IN GW32
GW31: 10 starters = 11/12 players
GW32: 11 doublers = 24/24 players
GW33: 11 starters = 12/12 players
= 47 fixtures
STRATEGY: TRIPLE CAPTAIN CHIP IN GW32
GW31: 10 starters = 11/12 players
GW32: 10 doublers = 25/24 players
GW33: 10 starters = 11/12 players
= 46 fixtures
Here, one hypothetical team is competing with another hypothetical team. There is no need to consider what other managers are doing. Now calculate the approximate cost of saving the FH. Now imagine an alternate timeline on which your future self still has the FH card in-hand to throw down in GW35 or GW38, and feel the benefit of this alternative universe. You can make this happen if you want it enough!
Perhaps you would be unable to manage 46 fixtures without the use of the FH, but that needn’t necessitate the use of the FH, as you may not manage 47 fixtures with the FH either. Consider how many hits you would need for optimal fixtures on either future timeline.
Plausible Team 2
STRATEGY: FREE HIT CHIP IN GW32
GW31: 10 starters = 11/12 players (-12)
GW32: 11 doublers = 24/14 players
GW33: 11 starters = 12/12 players
= 47 fixtures (-12 points)
STRATEGY: TRIPLE CAPTAIN CHIP IN GW32
GW31: 7 starters = 8/12 players
GW32: 11 doublers = 26/24 players
GW33: 10 starters = 11/12 players
= 44 fixtures
In this hypothetical scenario, you could exchange the FH and 12 points for three additional fixtures. You could… but this would negate the notion that each hit is repaid by appearance points, as 12 points requires six fixtures break even. On the other hand, you could consider saving the FH and transfer cost. You could even save the FH while matching the hits of your hypothetical FH strategy team, as you can use the same appearance-point-repayment logic to get two, three, or even four* additional fixtures per 4-point hit you take this week.
*if replacing Collin Quaner with Gonzalo Higuain
There are two teams, Chelsea and Southampton, that could have a double GW32, while definitely maintaining a fixture in GW33 (Chelsea also have a GW31 fixture). Given Southampton’s poor GW33 fixture, I would say that acquiring three Chelsea players by GW32 would be necessary for the maximum benefit of saving the FH chip. However, the addition of Southampton players in GW32 could be useful, especially as their fixtures could be reasonable (away to Brighton and Watford).
There are other factors to consider, including the fact that either Watford vs Fulham or Newcastle vs Palace will be postponed in GW33. If you currently own any players from these teams, you would need to count these as potential fixtures in you calculations, but you could also use the situation to your advantage by balancing Watford and Fulham players with Newcastle and Palace players, so that you are able to plan your GW33 non-playing bench with certainty.
Saving the Chip Fun: Final Points
The most important number of the season is your Final Points (take a bow). To give yourself the best chance of achieving the greatest points tally, you need to decide whether to cash-in the FH now or save it for a later date. While many believe that GW31-33 is the obvious period in which to gain an advantage over those who already cashed-in, there is little discussion about how great the advantage could be over playing the chip later in the season.
Some points to consider when making your decision include the fixtures and fixture pile-up as the season progresses. GW35 is due to be another double GW, and perhaps not even the only additional double GW after GW32, either. You may wish to use your FH in this week, given the likely rotation and possible injuries which may result from the top teams competing vigorously in Europe around this time.
While we can’t say for certain what the benefits of saving the chip will be, there is merit in keeping your options open. The drawback of keeping a strategy open indefinitely is that you may miss the opportunity to cash-in at the optimum moment, while wasting resources along the way.
For example, you may lose a FT if you save it for GW32, before deciding to use your FH instead when you hear the double GW announcements. Likewise, I have personally suffered from avoiding Sadio Mané since GW24, when each week he has been an obvious transfer target for me, yet each week I decided to ignore him so as not to commit to a FH32 strategy. He went on to score 58 points in 7 GWs, and might yet punish me again in GW31 and 33.
In the long run, keeping your options open may help or hinder your points production.
It’s up to you to decide which of these outcomes is most likely for your team. I only implore: won’t somebody please think of the chip fun?
5 years, 1 month ago
Hi mate. Great article mate and appreciate the efforts that have gone into it.
Although I have set my team up for GW 31 and 33 over the last several weeks, I've still pondered over FH32.
This is a welcomed read and it's worth considering. Cheers pal