Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 38

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 37 REVIEW

Last week, the Crowd Wisdom picks beat the community average once again, and whilst this season hasn’t been quite as successful as last year for the crowd predictions – perhaps due to this being a less predictable season overall – hopefully these articles have provided some useful guidance for your fantasy football decisions.

GAMEWEEK 38 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW38:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

It’s fitting that Man City and Liverpool top the Predicted Goals chart, as they have for most of the season, and reflecting the real Premier League table.  With so much at stake, both teams must score, and thus seem like sensible options for captaincy.

Man United, Man City and Southampton are all predicted to keep clean sheets, whilst Liverpool, Palace and Newcastle appear to be worth backing too.

Here are the picks we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom:

Brighton 0 – 2 Man City
Burnley 1 – 2 Arsenal
Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Bournemouth
Fulham 1 – 1 Newcastle
Leicester 1 – 2 Chelsea
Liverpool 2 – 1 Wolves
Man United 2 – 0 Cardiff
Southampton 2 – 0 Huddersfield
Tottenham 2 – 1 Everton
Watford 1 – 1 West Ham

As I mentioned previously, we aren’y yet sure where these articles will be published next season – possibly on Superbru itself, but hopefully you’ll be able to find them on Google.  Thank you to everyone that has read the series, hopefully it has helped a little.