Welcome to The Monday After series!
A weekly article dedicated to hunting the top fixture runs, team combinations, and the most logical transfers for the upcoming gameweeks. In past Scoutcasts, Joe has used the phrase “attacking the next block of fixtures” and I think this phrasing, although a tad aggressive for the ‘Safe as Houses’ manager, is an excellent description of the analysis below. How do we use the tools we have to come away with a rational, fixture-based transfer decision?
I started writing for the first time around GW8 last season with the intention of getting the FPL thoughts out of my head before they killed every last relationship I held dear to me. After a while I found myself reading these articles back and using them myself as a reference to my own plans as the game weeks progressed. Due to the feedback and encouragement of this awesome community, I kept the series going right up to GW38 and managed to end the season with a very satisfying top 5k finish! So here I am, starting up the fires again, hoping that if I follow last year’s process, I’ll be able to emulate the success of the 18-19 season. Now, although I do go hard on the fixture analysis here, I am very aware of the long-raging war between ‘form’ and ‘fixtures’. So I wanted to caution anyone from solely using fixture planning to make their decisions. Although it’s definitely something to fall back on when torn between two decisions, managers need a healthy dose of eye tests and stat analysis alongside fixture planning to have a successful campaign.
Right! Now that is outta the way – let’s have a look at the teams with the best starting fixture runs, the strategies we can implement, and what teams to avoid.
(All fixture difficulties are assessed using this fixture tracker)
Teams to Look Into
Everton
No matter which way you look at it, the Toffees win the prize for ‘best starting fixtures’. Whether it’s the first 3, the first 5, or first 10 games, Everton win every time. Playing just one top 6 team between GW1-10, it was hard to find a draft without an Everton defender when the game first released. Since then, though, the Merseyside team have lost the bid to re-sign Zouma from Chelsea, and they’ve sold Gueye to PSG, both critical to their turn of form towards the end of last season. Still, with their full-back’s attacking stats and an impressive defensive preseason (4 clean sheets in 7 games), there’ll be plenty of managers hoping Everton keep together at the back for the first few games of the season. As for attacking options, the lack of preseason goals doesn’t exactly marry up well with those price rises, and they’ve only just added more firepower to their roster in the form of Kean (7.0m), who probably won’t be starting right away. I’d rely on Pickford (5.5m) and his DEF buddies over any attackers at least to start off with.
Liverpool
We all knew that Liverpool would feature heavily in our teams after last seasons, but the easy starting fixtures definitely cements them into our thinking. An iffy defensive record during the summer has managers who tripled in defence rethinking where they place their eggs, but we’re all still jumping at the chance to own at least one defender that has double figure attacking stats for just 7.0m. Whatever your tinkering brings, using all three Reds slots will be a big shield this year. If you’ve only got 2 starting GW1, consider this your ‘what are you playing at?’ warning.
Man City
This may seem like I’m writing a ‘Most Obvious Teams to have GW1’ article, but I swear the fixture stars are absolutely aligning this season. City are right behind Everton for best opening 10 fixtures, only going down to 3rd place when looking at the opening 5 games. Raheem Sterling (12.0m) + DEF is the most popular combo in drafts, but one attacking player from the current title holders may not be enough. With most of their attacking assets all coming in at pretty high prices, though, it’s understandable why managers are reluctant to grab an extra Citizen. But after his Community Shield showing, I’d recommend at least trying to tinker your way towards Kevin De Brunye (9.5m) + Sterling + DEF. Remember, it’s much easier to downgrade a 9.5m player than to scrape the cash together for a 9.5m player.
Brighton
Let’s look at the other end of the spectrum. Despite their best efforts, Brighton have managed to stay in the premier league for another season. Means we get to have another go at their budget friendly squad! The fixture gods have been kind to Brighton, who see themselves with the 3rd best fixture run for GW1-3. This is a perfect opportunity for us managers to grab well-known FPL entities while waiting for either the newer players to show us they can hack it in the prem, or for Lampard to show us who’s actually on penalty duty. Mathew Ryan (4.5m) is a perfect keeper to begin with while we watch to see who this season’s Etheridge is, or for Nick Pope‘s (4.5m) good fixture run of GW5-14 to start. Lewis Dunk (4.5m) is another great placeholder, perhaps for the next marauding fullback from the promoted sides, or perhaps for the nailed 4.0m defender we don’t know exists yet. Even Shane Duffy (5.0m) could be a good choice until we find out which player will take over at RB now that Trippier has booked his place in the Spanish sun. Unfortunately, it looks like we don’t have the same luck in the Midfield department. FPL favourite Pascal Groß (6.5m) hasn’t featured much in pre-season, and a formation change by head coach Potter may have dashed any hopes we have of a nailed 6.5m Brighton placeholder. They do, however, have a slightly cheaper option in Leandro Trossard (6.0m), who you could grab instead of the plethora of 6.0 ‘wait and see’ options. Whatever you decide to do with your Seagulls, make sure you’re ditching them by GW7.
West Ham
There’s excitement in the Irons camp this summer. West Ham signed a shiny new striker, and provided he doesn’t have a case of the ‘glass ankle syndrome’, this could be their year to impress. They certainly have the fixtures to start the campaign well. Although they play Man City in GW1, their GW2-11 fixtures are the easiest in the league! They’ll be in my thoughts for GW3. With the likes of Manuel Lanzini and Pablo Fornals (both 6.5m), along with Felipe Anderson (7.0m) priced very reasonably this season, there’s plenty to assess before jumping into anything. It’s just such a shame that Lukasz Fabianski (5.0m) has been priced out of the 4.5m bracket. As for that shiny new striker, Sébastien Haller (7.5m) is definitely one to watch along with the others; he’s just a bit harder to get to without 2 FTs! He’ll need to start strong to be considered over his midfielder teammates.
Chelsea
Chelsea, this year, are ‘look before you leap’. I honestly think the guys behind the pricing knew we’d all be skeptical of owning any Blues players after losing Hazard and Sarri, so they’ve tried their hardest to entice us with low prices in literally every position. However, we just don’t know how they’re going to play under Lampard. We don’t even know who’s definitely on penalties! Despite everything, I’ve got to include them here because after Chelsea’s difficult first gameweek, they move onto one tasty fixture run. From GW2-11 they are 2nd in our fixture difficulty ranking and once we find out who the consistent starters are we can jump into Lampard’s loving embrace. Until then, no outfield player is nailed until proven otherwise.
Teams to be Wary Of
Tottenham
With Harry Kane’s (11m) price drop, there are so many managers licking their lips at the chance to own him for so cheap, team balance be damned. As a fixtures guy, I just cannot justify ripping my team up to include him as a third premium. Tottenham rank 5th worst in our fixture difficulty tracker for both GW1-3 and GW1-5. The rankings don’t tell the whole story of course, as their first 3 home matches are against Aston Villa, Newcastle, and Crystal Palace, but with Heung-Min Son (9.5m) suspended and an uncertain RB position, any bargains we can find, like Lucas Moura (7.5m), will be for the short term. So unless you’re planning on getting premium Spurs players, it may be best to wait until GW7, or keep a Free Transfer handy.
Norwich
A very quick one that I feel needs a mention. There are so many cheap players in the newly promoted squads and I can’t fault anyone looking for bargains. The problem is that none of the promoted sides have decent opening fixtures, Norwich least of all. They actually sit bottom of our rankings! It’s going to be quite difficult for a bargain to emerge from a team who play three top 6 sides in the first 5 gameweeks. That goes for all promoted sides. They’re going to be fire fighting right out the gate this year, so please make sure you know what you’re doing if you’ve got any Norwich, Villa or Sheffield Utd players in your GW1 team.
Leicester
Now I know this may be controversial, but I have to put Leicester in the ‘Wary’ category. Yes, they’ve signed Ayoze Pérez and Youri Tielemans (both 6.5m), and Brendan Rodgers had them absolutely flying at the end of last season, but we have to remember that this coincided with a great fixture run! This season they play four of the top 6 teams between GW1-8 and start their campaign against Wolves. It’s not going to be easy for the Foxes, so it may be worth holding off. Consequently, GW9-17 sees Leicester move from 19th to 1st in our fixture rankings. Something to think about!
Wolves
Wolves have almost the same fixture difficulty as Leicester, so I won’t stay on them too long. Their fixtures from GW1-10 are ranked 3rd worst, then from GW11-18 they are 1st. Plenty of managers (14.7%!) are relying on Diogo Jota (6.5m) to continue the ass kicking we saw towards the end of last season, but the fixtures aren’t cooperating with the narrative. There are loads of other players with much better fixtures for the same price. Be aware. Be very aware!
Of course we can’t look at every single team, but hopefully I’ve covered a decent amount of players the majority of managers are tinkering with. The downside to fixture planning is, most definitely, price changes. Once the season starts keep an eye on the players you’re interested in, you may have to move quick! So make sure you follow your plan. I’m sure you guys’ll figure it out. Good luck in GW1! See you next Monday.
