“I donβt want to be one of those easily forgotten people, so important at the time, so special, so influential, and so treasured, yet years later just a vague face and a distant memory.”
The new trend seems to be spending big at the back and cheap up front. Many RMTs have 4-5-1/5-4-1 with only one mid-price forward. Even teams with two forwards are also considering two mid-price forwards. This is mainly because of the value for money the premium defenders and midfielders offer compared to the premium forwards. As a result, the love for the Premium Forward is perhaps at an all-time low this season.
This article looks at why we should not ignore the Premium Forwards:
1. You don’t have to own the same premium forward for the entire season
One of the reasons why premium forwards are not in many RMTs is because those managers are arguing that spending so much money for a forward who barely manage to score 200 points (only Aubameyang and Aguero crossed 200 points) is not at all value for money whereas the premium midfielders easily crossed 200 points mark (Salah 259 points, Sterling 234 points, Mane 231 points). Even defenders with significantly less price scored 200 points (Robertson 213 points, VVD 208 points).
However, you do not need to keep them in your team for the entire season. This is not FPL Draft where you need to pick the player for the entire season, this is FPL. We get Transfers. We just need to have them during the right times, and history shows that they do have a period in which they score a lot. Aguero in the opening gameweeks of last season, Aubameyang during the festive periods, Aguero again during Manchester City’s first double gameweek period, Vardy during the final Gameweeks of last season. Not just last season; remember the time of Kanexit in 2017/18 season or when Kane was scoring for fun in the final Gameweeks of 2016/17 season to win the Golden Boot.
Owning these players at the correct time will massively boost our rankings, while not having them can result in massive red arrows.
This point was even discussed in a recent hot topic by FFS user Valar (Keith):
“At the end of the day we have transfers to use and some ppl forget that. Sure a 6.5 million defender will outscore a 6.5 attacker over the season. But if timed correctly, transferring out attackers in and out over a season based on form and fixtures is the way to go. Happens every season.”
2. Team Structure
One of the drawbacks of not having a premium forward in your team is that if one of the premium forward starts with a bang (like Aguero did last season),Β then because of the team structure you will need multiple transfers/wildcard to get them in your team. It might not be an issue for those who are planning an early wildcard, but for those who are not they might be in the back foot early in the season.
3. Captaincy
Never captain a defender they said. Very well said!
Captaining Shane Duffy in last season’s Double Gameweek still haunts many managers. Having a premium forward gives managers the option having another player to give the armband. Not many will captain Laporte or Walker for a Manchester City fixture which seems an easy affair on paper. Despite all the heroics of TAA and Robertson, very few will give them the armband consistently.
Sure, some managers will plan of having Salah as permanent captain and leave it there. However, for other manager that might be a bit boring and want a more dynamic approach, then the Premium Forward gives them another captaincy choice. And remember, even Salah had a period last season when he was struggling to score.
4. 3-4-3 /3-5-2 have historically been the most successful formations
3-4-3 and 3-5-2 have historically been the most successful formations. Past FPL winners have more often than not won with these two formations, and these formations generally have at least one premium forward. Some recent analysis and research in FFS have shown that for the past 2-3 seasons 4-4-2 is also a successful formation, but in general 3-4-3 & 3-5-2 have been the most successful formations.
5. Attacking full backs/wing backs need the forwards to score for getting the assist
Another argument why people are going with defense heavy approach is because modern day full backs and wing backs are a lot more attacking and thereby they can get points on both sides of the pitch. There are many ways in which they get attacking returns, but mainly they get their attacking points via assists. And this is where it is a symbiotic process. The attacking full backs/wing backs need the forwards (mostly) to score so that they can get their assist. Kolasinac mainly gets assist when – Aubameyang /Lacazette scores. Similarly, Mendy – Aguero, Alonso – Costa, Trippier – Kane in the previous seasons.
There are some teams where the wingers/attacking midfielders score more than the forwards and as a result the assists of the full backs are not so dependent on the forwards (for example Liverpool and Everton), but in general attacking full backs/wing backs need the forwards to score. So when they get attacking points there are more chances that Striker from that team will also get attacking points.
6. VAR
VAR will be introduced in the Premier League for 2019/20 season and there has already been analysis of how this might affect FPL. Some argue that VAR might lead to more penalties, while some argue the otherwise. In this article, let us assume that the glass is half full and there will be more penalties. In that case, it further increases the appeal of the premium forwards. Aguero is the designated penalty taker for Manchester City, Aubameyang /Lacazette for Arsenal, Kane for Tottenham, Vardy for Leicester. More spot kicks for the Top teams mean more chances for Premium Forwards to score more points.
7. 2018/19 Season: Exception or Example of what to come?
One of the reasons why many managers are going heavy at back is because of the events that transpired last season. Liverpool kept 21 clean sheets, whereas Manchester City kept 20 clean sheets. But it is very rare to see a team keep 20 clean sheets a season, let alone 2 teams. Also for the first time last season, a team scored 97 points and did not win the League, the most points ever for a team which finished runners-up. Although it looks like these two teams will again go Head-to-Head for the League title, but whether or not they can sustain the extraordinary heights they reached last season defensively (and as a whole) or suffer some regression and return to the mean remains to be seen.
8. Explosiveness
Nothing feels better in FPL than having a player in the team who can score heavily in a particular Gameweek. Moreover, having him as captain adds cherry on top of the cake and that is not even mentioning the prospect of having him as Triple Captain. Premium Forwards, unlike their cheaper alternatives are much more explosive and having the correct one at the right time can give a massive boost to your gameweek rank.
As with any approach in FPL, there is no guarantee that it will succeed. However, from the above points that I discussed it looks there are more pros than cons of selecting a Premium Forward.
PS – Now that I have mentioned why a manager should consider signing a premium forward, sit back and see how they perform poorly π
