With just four Gameweeks left of the 2011/12 campaign, today’s Frisking article is the last of the season. Now that Gameweek 34 is over, we analyse that ever-diminishing Next Six Ticker in the sidebar. It’s a tricky one, though; while the eight sides with upcoming doubles feature prominently in our thinking, the fact that some have more to play for than others is another issue to consider:
The Strong
Tottenham
Sunday’s FA Cup exit means the fight for Champions League places will be firmly in Harry Redknapp’s thoughts over the last four Gameweeks of the season. A campaign that had promised so much could, potentially, end in bitter disappointment but a glance at the remaining schedule affords Spurs plenty optimism.
The Londoners face four of the bottom six over the next three Gameweeks, with trips to QPR and Villa on either side of a double Gameweek 36 (BLA, bol) which is bound to see significant interest in their Fantasy assets. Crucially, of the right teams with doubles ahead, Spurs have one of the strongest schedules, with a home game against travel-sick Fulham to see out the season after they pay visit to Villa. Despite a recent drop in returns, Gareth Bale and Emmanuel Adebayor’s attacking potential could prove prosperous, while Benoit Assou-Ekotto forward raids from left-back are likely to attract interest as Spurs look to end the season on a high. Rafael Van der Vaart’s recent return to form – two goals and an assist in his last five – suggests the Dutchman, with 5% ownership, could be a strong differential.
Bolton
Two back-to-back double Gameweeks affords Owen Coyle’s side the chance of an escape from the drop zone as the relegation battle heats up. There’s no doubt many Fantasy managers will be reluctant to invest in the Lancashire outfit, given their poor season, but three wins in the last five offers hope.
Gameweek 35 hands them a home clash against Swansea and a trip to Villa, while the following double looks a little trickier – a trip to Sunderland precedes the visit of Tottenham. The Trotters then see out the season by hosting West Brom before travelling to Stoke but, with Coyle’s side scrapping for their top-flight safety, they could upset the odds. Martin Petrov, with 19 points in his last four Gameweeks, looks the most secure of the Bolton midfield – factor in his likely spot-kick duties and a price of 5.1, and the Bulgarian seems the safest pick. Ryo Miyaichi has the potential but has been reduced to a sub role of late as Coyle looks to avoid fatigue.
Considering the Trotters have a single clean sheet since Gameweek 11, Adam Bogdan is likely to be good for save points alone – at 4.0, though, he still looks decent amongst budget bracket options, while David Wheater will need to grab the goals to justify investment. Up front, it looks grim. Coyle’s main forward, David Ngog, has notched twice all season, though skipper Kevin Davies started last time out and could force his way into the reckoning – his inclusion in the Bolton lineup could see him handed penalty duties ahead of Petrov.
Everton
The Merseysiders have been beaten just twice in the last thirteen Gameweeks in a typically resurgent second half of the campaign. David Moyes’ men will be keen to bounce back from their FA Cup Semi-Final disappointment and, aside from the upcoming trip to Old Trafford, have a decent schedule left to boost their chances of a seventh place finish in their tussle with neighbours Liverpool.
A double Gameweek with (FUL, sto) is followed by a trip to basement-dwellers Wolves, before the Toffees entertain Newcastle on the final day of the season. With five clean sheets in their last six Goodison games, 5.4 Tim Howard looks decent value, while Leighton Baines’ owners will be hoping he recovers from the hamstring strain that forced him off at the weekend. With attacking returns in each of his last three appearances, Steven Pienaar seems set for investment, while Nikica Jelavic’s clinical scoring looks particularly enticing, given his lowly 5.8 price tag.
Newcastle
A fourth place finish is still a definite possibility for the in-form Magpies. Alan Pardew’s side entertain Stoke this weekend on the back of a five-match winning run which has seen them concede a single goal; Tim Krul and Danny Simpson offer strong value , then. Papiss Cisse and Hatem Ben Arfa’s outstanding recent attacking form is likely to see both attract major investment with double Gameweek 36 trips to Wigan and Chelsea, though, with showdowns against City and Everton to finish the campaign, the final two fixtures look tricky.
Also Consider
Fulham – a home clash against Wigan this weekend will tempt many with handing Clint Dempsey the armband, though the double Gameweek 36 trips to Everton and Liverpool lessens the Cottagers’ appeal a little. Mark Schwarzer could pick up the save points if Martin Jol’s side concede, then, before the Cottagers host Sunderland and travel to White Hart Lane in the final match of the season.
Liverpool – their league form has been dire of late but the FA Cup Semi-Final win over Everton may give the Reds a shot in the arm ahead of a run of three home games in the next three Gameweeks. Kenny Dalglish’s side host West Brom and Chelsea on either side of a double Gameweek 36 (FUL, nor) before finishing away to Swansea. Rotation is an issue with the FA Cup Final in mind, but the potential is there for points – Daniel Agger and Martin Skrtel could prosper at the back, while Luis Suarez has shown strong home form, picking up returns in each of his last three at Anfield.
Stoke – Tony Pulis’ side may have little but pride to play for, but the Potters are hardly renowned for taking it easy. This weekend’s trip to Newcastle is far from straightforward but Stoke then have three home games and a trip to QPR in the final three Gameweeks. Given they have dropped just two points at the Britannia in their last four, the double Gameweek 36 visit of Arsenal and Everton affords them a chance to upset the odds. Peter Crouch – with three goals in his last four at home – could be a decent differential with less than 3% ownership, Robert Huth’s recent return to goalscoring form offers potential at both ends of the pitch, while Asmir Begovic’s 4.5 price looks decent value.
Aston Villa – an upcoming double Gameweek 35 sees the midlands outfit host both Sunderland and Bolton, with the likes of James Collins looking strong at the back. Andreas Weimann could be a decent cut-price option up front, while Fantasy managers looking for a wild gamble may well consider Stephen Ireland.
Chelsea – Roberto Di Matteo’s side have three strong home games before the season ends but with the Blues fighting on three fronts, rotation is likely to be a nightmare for Fantasy managers. Nevertheless, we can’t ignore (QPR, NEW) in double Gameweek 36 or the final game of the season, as Blackburn roll up to the Bridge. Juan Mata is likely to receive plenty investment but, with David Luiz and Gary Cahill both injury worries, investment at the back would be at a premium price for the likes of John Terry and Ashley Cole.
The Weak
QPR
While Mark Hughes’ outfit have surpassed recent expectations at home with three back-to-back Loftus Road wins, Fantasy managers are likely to give them a wide berth over the remainder of the season. Adel Taarabt, in particular has come to the fore with attacking returns in each of those wins but, with Spurs and Stoke the final two visitors, the R’s may struggle in their attempt for survival. Trips to Chelsea and City are far from enticing, given that the London outfit have picked up a mere two points on the road in their last eleven.
Norwich
Their top-flight safety assured, Paul Lambert’s side were battered at home by City last time out. The Canaries now travel to a Blackburn side scrapping for survival and also make their way to the Emirates in Gameweek 37 – both games could easily see them leave empty-handed. Home games against Liverpool and Aston Villa looks a little more prosperous but with two wins in their last nine at Carrow Road, many will be steering well clear.
West Brom
The Baggies remaining four fixtures arguably hands them one favourable fixture. A home clash with Villa in Gameweek 36 offers the chance to continue a run that has brought four wins at the Hawthorns in the last five, though a visit from Arsenal on the final day of the season seems far from straightforward. Given that Roy Hodgson’s side have picked up a single point in their last four on the road, trips to Liverpool and Bolton are likely to pose problems.
Also be Wary of
Blackburn – Steve Kean’s side are starting to get that sinking feeling – it’s five straight losses now for Rovers as the drop looks more inevitable as the weeks go by. Currently, there are doubts over frontmen Yakubu and Junior Hoilett, after both limped out of the 3-0 drubbing at Swansea- the pair’s absence is likely to be the tipping point as relegation edges closer. Trips to Spurs and Chelsea offer no appeal, while home games with Norwich and Wigan may be little too late, particularly if their first-choice strike force are unavailable.
Sunderland without a goal in their last three fixtures, the Blacks Cats seems to have hit an end-of-season slump. The likes of Stephane Sessegnon and Nicklas Bendtner have been woefully out of sorts in recent matches and now face Villa and Bolton in the next two – with both their opponents scrapping for survival, Martin O’Neill’s powers of persuasion will be needed to rally the troops. Sunderland then travel to Fulham and host United on the final Gameweek of the campaign, suggesting that points at both ends of the pitch may be hard to come by.
