Members

Is now the time to invest in Southampton’s FPL defensive assets?

If someone had told us back in October that we’d be talking up Southampton defensive assets by January, we would have assumed you were joking.

But here we are, nonetheless, on the verge of considering Saints defenders for our Fantasy Premier League teams.

Several months after the heaviest home defeat in their history, and the worst defensive showing this author has seen on any football pitch at any level, Ralph Hasenhüttl has completely transformed Southampton in one of the most impressive turnarounds we’ve seen in recent years.

With price depreciation naturally occurring across the Saints squad so far, Fantasy managers are now taking a look at the options available in Hampshire with great interest.

We have taken a closer look at their recent form to see if they truly are worth investing in.

As this article uses data from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area, only those who have signed up for the full 2019/20 season, a monthly pass or a discounted package can access it in full.

What has Hasenhüttl changed?

The cause of Southampton’s recent defensive success can find its roots in a switch from a three-man defence to a back-four some point after that (in)famous defeat at Leicester – as well as a newfound consistency in team selection.

Hasenhüttl came into 2019/20 still a big fan of a three-man defence and flexible attacking formations around that base.

He used a 3-4-2-1 in Gameweeks 1, 5, 7, 9 and 12, a 3-5-2 was rolled out in Gameweeks 2 and 10 and a 5-3-2 in Gameweek 11.

The Austrian did dabble with back-fours at various stages, using a 4-4-2 in Gameweeks 3 and 4, a 4-2-3-1 in Gameweek 6 and a 4-3-3 in Gameweek 8.

However, the biggest issue, as you can probably tell, stemmed from the fact that his side was never settled.

Even when a back-four was used, there were some questionable decisions made about which players would occupy which positions, especially at full-back – although injuries did not exactly help.

Southampton formations

(Personnel included when a back-four)

  • GW1: 3-4-2-1
  • GW2: 3-5-2
  • GW3: 4-4-2 (L-R: Danso, Vestergaard, Bednarek, Valery)
  • GW4: 4-4-2 (L-R: Danso, Vestergaard, Bednarek, Cédric)
  • GW5: 3-4-2-1
  • GW6: 4-2-3-1 (L-R: Cédric, Vestergaard, Bednarek, Danso)
  • GW7: 3-4-1-2
  • GW8: 4-3-3 (L-R: Bertrand, Yoshida, Bednarek, Valery)
  • GW9: 3-4-2-1
  • GW10: 3-5-2
  • GW11: 5-3-2
  • GW12: 3-4-2-1

As we all know, Southampton’s defence was one of the most porous in the Premier League during this period, epitomised by their humiliating 9-0 defeat at home to Leicester in Gameweek 10.

Still, it was not until the Gameweek 12 home defeat to Everton that the death knell was sounded for Hasenhüttl’s initial tactics with a brand new version of 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 system debuted on the trip to Arsenal – which ended in a morale-boosting 2-2 draw.

This was the first match that Hasenhüttl selected a back-four consisting of Ryan Bertrand (£4.8m) and Cédric Soares (£4.8m) as traditional full-backs either side of Jan Bednarek (£4.4m) and Jack Stephens (£4.3m) in a two-man centre-back partnership.

These four players have been the first-choice defenders for each of the last 10 matches in a row and the team has arguably been much better for the consistency – each outing seeing them receiving protection from the same pair of central midfielders too in Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (£4.8m) and James Ward-Prowse (£5.8m).

It would still take some time for the Saints to register their first clean sheet in this configuration, although from Gameweek 14 onwards they only let in more than one goal on one occasion, the 2-1 defeat at Newcastle in Gameweek 16.

It is over the last four matches that Southampton’s improvements have really come to the fore, with clean sheets kept against Chelsea (Gameweek 19) and Spurs (Gameweek 21) while Leicester were successfully neutralised at the King Power Stadium on Saturday.

In fact, as was widely reported, the Premier League’s Golden Boot front-runner and 2019/20’s shot-volume king Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) was restricted to a grand total of zero attempts on goal in Gameweek 22.

In order to find out whether this recent upturn in clean sheets is sustainable, and therefore a reliable source of points for Fantasy managers, we are digging even deeper, into the underlying statistics behind Southampton’s defence this season.

What does the underlying data say?

1,036 Comments Post a Comment
  1. chrisb182
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Here is a before and after of my WC. I currently sit 1.3m overall and my target is top 500k:

    Before:
    Pope, Button
    TAA, Lundstram, Sidibe Kelly, Aurier
    Salah, KDB, Richarlison, Cantwell, Traore
    Rashford, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin

    After:
    Ryan, Button
    TAA, Lundstram, Holgate, Janmaat, Williams
    Son, Salah, Mahrez, D. Silva, Cantwell
    Firmino, Vardy, Ings

    Anyone with any thoughts?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Wc in itself is fine. Will require careful management around doubles

      1. chrisb182
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I've got an exit plan in place for GW25 onwards but knowing my luck this season, I will fall flat on my face with it.

    2. OldBenKenobi
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      If you still have BB I would have rotating GKs and fairly decent bench in place on WC in prep for using the BB.

      I think I prefer your pre WC team 😯

      1. chrisb182
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Already used the BB ..... and the TC. 🙁

    3. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Have you pressed the button yet? I woudn't WC with that!

      1. chrisb182
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah I've already pulled the trigger on it bud.

        I played my 1st WC in GW3, and I've been suffering since.

        What would you recommend?

        1. Old Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Personally I'd go for the more boring TAA+Salah+Robbo rather than include Firmino. However if you are looking for differentials then it could work brilliantly. Or not.
          I'd have McCarthy in goal to save you a few quid and upgrade somewhere or keep it itb.

          1. chrisb182
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            McCarthy was one option that had which meant that I could upgrade Holgate to Dunk.

            Who would you recommend replacing Firmino with if I went with Robinson?

    4. Cojones of Destiny
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      it’s defo different hence may give you that necessary boost just not sure on Firmino

      1. chrisb182
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        It was a toss-up between Mane/Calvert-Lewin and Son/Firmino. Decided that the latter pairing has a lower combined ownership, and that Firmino has been in good away form recently.

    5. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Is Janmaat back in the team?

      1. chrisb182
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Due back sometime this month, but I've got him in for his price and the possibility that it fluctuates quickly. He's got some good bonus scores already this season.

  2. BinManJack
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Getting rid of Chilwell to free funds to get Salah, who should I bring in to take his place? Doesn't need to be a starter:

    a) Brandon Williams (Is he a starter for united now or intermittent?)
    b) Holgate
    c) Aurier

    Thanks

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B though couple more games I might say A

    2. FPL_BUCCANEER
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Stephens

    3. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      not c)
      If starter not needed then tempted by a) - but start him in the forthcoming juicy home matches

  3. Party time
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Boys, should I take a -24

      1. RLew
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Logged in just to say yes

        1. Party time
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Thank you

        2. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Maybe, maybe not

        3. zotter
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Yeah

        4. Party time
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Thanks all. -24 it is

          • Old Man
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I think not. Just compare the resullts aftwer this week's matches ..... you'll feel so much better

            1. Party time
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Thank you Old Man. Always better to take a wise advise from you. I won't risk it any longer

            2. Cojones of Destiny
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              wc?

              1. Party time
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  Burnt

              2. Amey
                • 5 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                What game are you playing 😉

                1. Party time
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Lol fpl

                2. Now I'm Panicking
                  • 9 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  Jack Bauer?

                  1. Party time
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      😆

                  2. George Sillett
                    • 8 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Only when pissed out of your brain ( I have history in this respect ☺).

                    1. Party time
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        I was never going to do that even though I have a total of -60 points taken this season 😆

                        1. George Sillett
                          • 8 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          The following morning comes as a great surprise though. ☺

                          1. Party time
                              4 years, 2 months ago

                              🙂

                      • jameslamerton
                        • 5 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Yes it's the drunk wildcard I play one every few months.

                    2. sovietrockettes
                      • 5 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Moving Rashford on:

                      A) Rashford>Firmino, play Holgate/Kelly in defence DGW24
                      B) Rashford >Haller, Rico>Robbo DGW24

                      I suppose the question is who scores more - Haller and Robbo (who both have 2 games) or Firmino and Holgate/Kelly?

                      1. zotter
                        • 14 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Latter better in medium term. Firmino robbo on average probably score similar

                    3. Amey
                      • 5 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Anyone else or just me thinking that the Leicester downturn in form coincided with fixtures conjunction ?

                      Small squad, lack of real alternative to Vardy/Maddison/Ndidi is costing them IMO.

                      1. Party time
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Nope. It coincided with when their cojones shrinked smaller

                          1. Amey
                            • 5 Years
                            4 years, 2 months ago

                            Ha ha

                        • Abra Dubravka
                          • 5 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Maddison is treading carefully in my squad. He’s lucky he has Burnley next.

                          1. Amey
                            • 5 Years
                            4 years, 2 months ago

                            Yes

                        • Old Man
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 12 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Hopefully Rodgers will refresh the squad a little, although I doubt that he will.

                          1. Amey
                            • 5 Years
                            4 years, 2 months ago

                            Yep.
                            Ndidi injury is a low blow IMO. Great player. PL is difficult to survive definitely. As the fixtures loosen up a bit, you guys will be fine

                        • Lukakus Unit
                          • 4 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          - small squad
                          - played City and Liverpool
                          - missing Ndidi badly

                          I'll be getting rid of my non-Vardy Leicester players until GW28. After that, I could see them going on a run until the last few weeks of the season.

                      2. AlpoShearer
                        • 6 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        A. Grealish
                        or
                        B. Sarr

                        1. Abra Dubravka
                          • 5 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Grealish

                        2. Amey
                          • 5 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Doucoure !

                          1. Amey
                            • 5 Years
                            4 years, 2 months ago

                            Should have been a '?'

                            1. AlpoShearer
                              • 6 Years
                              4 years, 2 months ago

                              Interesting, cheers

                      3. rodragon
                        • 5 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        How long is Ramsdale out

                        1. Amey
                          • 5 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Opposite of what Howe says

                          1. The Ejiptian King
                            • 5 Years
                            4 years, 2 months ago

                            lol, he's retired?!

                            1. Amey
                              • 5 Years
                              4 years, 2 months ago

                              Don't know 😀
                              Howe is a lier though.

                      4. CelticBhoy1
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Start Rashford or Cantwell?

                        Serious question

                        1. Rover
                          • 7 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          I'd wait till tomorrow's game and Ole's presser

                          1. Rover
                            • 7 Years
                            4 years, 2 months ago

                            But I'm also facing the same dilemma, unless I cave and sell Rashford for Ings

                      5. bigdip
                        • 11 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        GTG?

                        Ryan (Button)
                        TAA, Dunk, Lundy, Kelly, TARGETT
                        Richarlison, KDB (c), SON MARTIAL, GREALISH
                        Vardy, Ings DCL

                        (0 FT; 3.3mn ITB)

                        1. AlpoShearer
                          • 6 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Yep

                      6. Abra Dubravka
                        • 5 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Schmeichel (Martin)
                        TAA, Gomez, Sidibe (Lund, Kelly)
                        KDB, Mane, Maddison, Grealish (Traore)
                        Vardy, Ings, Jimenez

                        1FT £2.1m itb.
                        A) roll transfer?
                        B) Gomez to Robbo for Gw24?
                        C) Schmeichel and Traore to Ryan/McCarthy and Martial over next 2 weeks?

                        1. Concrete
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 9 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          C looks good

                          1. Abra Dubravka
                            • 5 Years
                            4 years, 2 months ago

                            I know. But I’m scared about Gomez’ minutes with Lovren and Matip returning

                        2. zotter
                          • 14 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          D. Jiminez to Firmino ?

                          1. zotter
                            • 14 Years
                            4 years, 2 months ago

                            Sorry ignore this

                            1. Abra Dubravka
                              • 5 Years
                              4 years, 2 months ago

                              Hidden Gomez triple up 😉

                      7. Concrete
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Vardy to Aguero
                        KdB to Silva

                        Different from rivals and 60odd behind or too soon for such moves?

                        Y or N

                        1. zotter
                          • 14 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Too soon dude

                        2. Abra Dubravka
                          • 5 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          No way

                      8. Riverside Red
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 4 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Any of you stats nerds out there understand what the benefit is of monitoring this FPL data analysis:
                        https://github.com/vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League/tree/master/data/2019-20