Pro Pundits

Should FPL managers replace Vardy with Aubameyang?

Fantasy Premier League managers are considering selling Jamie Vardy (£9.9m) for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.7m) ahead of Gameweek 25 – an understandable move to consider.

I have been looking into some of the numbers posted by the two players this season to see whether or not it’s a good idea.

As we are currently running a Members Articles Unlocked, all sections from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area will be FREE for everyone to access in this piece.

I am certainly considering making the switch to Aubameyang, if nothing else, but to take a different approach to recover after a pretty frustrating Double Gameweek 24.

Sometimes you can make completely rational decisions like placing the Triple Captain Chip on Sadio Mané (£12.4m), only to see him walk off after 32 minutes in the first game of a double Gameweek.

This kind of bad luck happens, it’s part of the game. I’ll laugh it off and move on.

That gets more difficult though when you are making lots of bad decisions to go along with the unlucky ones, like spending four points to bring in Jack Grealish (£6.7m) for Adama Traoré (£5.8m), despite the Wolves man having averaged 5.7 points per game from Gameweek 17 to 23.

The above sums up my problem right now. It feels like I’m making lots of bad decisions, quite simply because I am, and I’m sure some of you reading will be able to relate to this. I’m not trusting my instinct or even listening to what I’m saying to others. Every decision is being second-guessed and I’m definitely guilty of overthinking.

That brings me to my transfer thoughts for this week. As the rank continues to slide (and I’m glad I’m writing this before Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) makes it worse against that West Ham defence), I’m looking for something different to do. Almost to the point where I’ll take something different just for the sake of it. Anything to turn this season around.

The current team looks like this.

is-vardy-really-out-of-form

There aren’t many glaring issues I don’t think, and the Season Ticker within the Members Area isn’t showing me many teams with good upcoming fixtures where I don’t already own players, or quite frankly just don’t want them.

is-vardy-really-out-of-form 2

Vardy is one player I’ve considered potentially selling. I’ve seen other FPL managers talk about this as well. For me, it’s mostly fixture driven with Chelsea (home), Wolves (away), and Manchester City (home) to come in the next three Gameweeks for Leicester.

Who are the best FPL captain candidates for Gameweek 21?

The Leicester front-man hasn’t scored in the league since Gameweek 18, and managers are starting to become frustrated. When you start looking at the context behind the lack of returns, it doesn’t seem so bad.

Liverpool in Gameweek 19 was always going to be a tough game, the following two fixtures were missed through injury. That was followed by an assist against Southampton, a penalty miss at Burnley and an early injury versus West Ham.

He’s certainly not been value for money but had he converted that penalty as he usually does (in the Premier League he has scored 17 out of 21 taken), then I’m not sure FPL managers would be so keen to get rid.

We also have to take into consideration that Wilfred Ndidi (£5.0m) missed the Southampton and Burnley games and didn’t start against West Ham either.

To show the importance of Ndidi I looked at interceptions, tackles and tackles won for all positions over the course of this season. He’s joint top for interceptions (56), third for tackles (119), and second for tackles won (86).

On the surface, this would be a big plus to the defensive players for Leicester but it also helps with their attack. With Ndidi in the team they are more likely to win the ball back more often, this allows quicker transitions to attack with the creative outlet of James Maddison (£7.6m).

That being said, perhaps in the short term, the more difficult fixture run could be taken advantage of.

One player I’ve been looking at is Aubameyang. Is this being different for different sake, or is there a genuine differential to take advantage of?

Aubameyang banks more FPL returns as Arsenal and West Ham serve up dire game

The Arsenal forward has only missed two games this season and they were through suspension. He’s about as nailed as they come and has 17 attacking returns in 22 games so far this season. Talk about consistent.

He’s one of those players I’ve never had space for this season, but with Burnley (away), Newcastle (home), and Everton (home) to come in the next three I’m tempted by a punt over Vardy with the view I can always get the Englishman back as and when needed.

Comparing the two over their last four matches it is quite positive for Aubameyang.

Is Vardy To Aubameyang Worth A Transfer?

He’s had twice the number of shots inside the box, and although the Expected Goals are similar, that is different when you look at xG Open Play where Aubameyang comes out on top. This is because of the penalty against Burnley that Vardy had.

Over the season, however, Vardy has been out-performing Aubameyang in big chances, shots inside the box and Expected Goals.

is-vardy-really-out-of-form 3

The key question we need to ask ourselves is will Vardy recapture some of that form that saw him score eight weeks in a row. Let’s not also forget that while Aubameyang has a mammoth 17 returns in 22 games, Vardy has 23 in slightly less minutes.

His goal-scoring prowess may not fully emerge over the next three but beyond that the future looks bright with a solid fixture run for Leicester.

is-vardy-really-out-of-form 5

Arsenal’s next opponents Burnley have conceded the higher number of shots in the box over the last four matches but it is worth noting they’ve played Leicester, Man United and Chelsea in that time.

When you look back a bit further over the last six matches all of Arsenal’s next three opponents are in the top six for shots conceded in the box.

is-vardy-really-out-of-form 6

And while that does look good for Arsenal, their own goal threat hasn’t been ideal recently. Looking back again at the last six matches and only Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Burnley have had fewer shots in the box than Mikel Arteta’s men.

is-vardy-really-out-of-form 7

Looking at the above it does seem unlikely that Arsenal will fail to score in their next three matches, and if they do it’s likely Aubameyang will be involved. He’s got a 52% goal involvement record so far for this season and that puts him in the top 5 of all players who have played at least 1,000 minutes.

Is Vardy To Aubameyang Worth A Transfer? 2

Is that enough though? If we don’t expect any big wins then is Aubameyang at £10.7m worth it, when other cheaper strikers like Danny Ings (£7.0m) and Raúl Jiménez (£7.6m) continue to steadily bring in the points.

One concern there might be is if Alexandre Lacazette (£9.3m) plays, then the Gabon international often finds himself on the wing as more of an inside forward which on the surface doesn’t sound great from a returns point of view, but having looked at games where he’s started on either wing it looks more promising.

  • Centre Forward – 14 games, 7 goals
  • Right Wing – 3 games, 3 goals
  • Left Wing – 5 games, 4 goals

It looks like Aubameyang is primed to get more goals over the coming weeks, but how big of an FPL score will he rack up?

This may be one of those situations where sitting back and doing nothing could be the answer. Vardy looks to be fit for Gameweek 25 after playing a part against Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup. We know he’ll be nailed for 90 minutes, has penalties, and with Ndidi back we could see Leicester perform well even with the tougher fixtures. I’m just not sure there’s enough I’ve seen that tells me Vardy will continue this goal-drought over the long term.

While Arsenal’s fixtures from Gameweek 29 are good so are Leicester’s, and it might just be worth saving a transfer if you think Vardy can get some returns over the next three. It’s also worth noting that with Leicester’s loss to Aston Villa they’ll play in Gameweek 28, whereas Aubameyang will miss out if Manchester City beat Manchester United in the other semi-final.

Lastly, I’d consider when you might play your Wildcard. If that’s around Gameweek 29 or 30 then it’s probably better to take advantage of the fixtures. If it’s likely to be later in the season then holding on to Vardy and spending transfers on other moves might be the better option.

I’m still tempted though, mostly because it’s different, and if it pays off it could be the kick-starter I need and let’s be honest, I’m starting to run out of time to save this season.

There is inspiration to be gleaned from the recent Sergio Aguero (£12.0m) heroics for FPL managers where he propelled them up the rankings in a short space of time. But I’m often reminded that if you’re unsure it’s probably best to do nothing, save a transfer and reassess the following week. That seems rather boring when your rank is closer to 1,000,000 than it is to 1 though…

Which FPL assets topped goal threat, creativity and clean sheets this month?
478 Comments Post a Comment
  1. dbeck
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I need help, stuck on what to do and with a 700k rank I need to make some chunk rises.

    A) Wildcard Time
    B) Use 2FT for 1 weeks punts and then WC
    C) Sort my team out with a few hits over the next few weeks

    Realistically I only want to keep 4 or 5 of my team and need to restructure with Kun/Auba in more of a 433 set up.

    McCarthy McGovern
    Rico Kelly Soy Lund TAA
    Salah Mane Sarr Grealish KDB
    Maupay Vardy Greenwood

    1m itb

    1. The Cherry Picker
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I’d probably WC to get ahead of the curve x

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

      1. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        interested to hear where you would punt? I am getting Callum Wilson feels

    3. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If it’s only 4-5 then that’s a WC surely.

      Think 4-3-3 could be a good call. Who’s on your mind?

      Double SU defence looks prime bar 28 - but you get a DGW later to compensate and they’re cheap enough to bench.

      I also keep looking at Pereira. He’s been right up there all season and is differential enough. Nice fixtures - bar one - in prospect

      Doh? Europa a worry but he’s got a great threat and stats.

      1. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Looking at Egan and Stevens from Sheff Utd, leading the stats for that team
        Double liverpool def still looks good
        Then Aurier (spurs have actually decent underlying def stats) and Lacelles given his price and Toons fixture

        I think Kun, Jimmy and Ings is the way to go up top

  2. The Cherry Picker
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Alright legends!

    Can I get a RMT please

    Ryan
    TAA VVD Lundstram
    Grealish Salah KDB Traore
    Jiminez Vardy Aguero

    Button Cantwell Rico Kelly

    Thanks!!

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      G2G for this week.

  3. Stimps
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on WC team? 0.4 itb

    Henderson Pope
    TAA VVD Stevens Lascelles, Stephens
    Salah KDB Grealish Sarr Traore
    Auba Jiminez Ings

    1. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Looks great.

      Bit of a benching headache with that midfield though.

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Don’t think I’d play Traore in 27/8 given Thursday night footie so a bit easier maybe. That of course begs the question if you’d want him just for 25/6

    2. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Is Sarr fit? Otherwise I would be tempted

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Decent Sarr fit? Do you need him and Traore?

    4. Ian J
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Looks great but for GW 28 Henderson, Stevens, KDB, Grealish & Auba won’t play - that leaves the rest to play - would you be happy with those or looking to transfer out?

      1. Stimps
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I'd be happy to field 10, have a backup goalkeeper

  4. Make United Great Again
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Will be interesting to see how much Bruno Fernandes costs..

    1. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      7.5-8.0 is my guess.

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Pogba started at 8.5 despite having a better career minutes per Premier league goal/assist than both Lampard & Gerrard, and he was on penalties

      So would be harsh to price Fernandes any higher than that

      Might even be 7.0 or something around the Mkhitaryan level

      There's a very high likelihood he will fail anyway, like the overwhelming majority of players asked to try & perform to their best in that circus of a club

    3. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Any thoughts on how this affects owning Martial? Still do bizarrely.

  5. Riggs
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I am on WC what Mids line is better:
    A) Salah KDB Grealish Traore Fleck
    or
    B) Salah KDB Son Fleck Hayden

    the 3 upfront is Jimenez Ings Auba in both occasions

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Prefer A

  6. Karan14
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    So I've got 6 players with a blank in GW28 (assuming City go through) in my current WC team:

    SHU - Henderson, Stevens & Egan
    MCI - KDB & Aguero
    AVL - Grealish

    I can bench Henderson, Stevens, Egan & KDB for McCarthy, Stephens (whu) & Mooy (WAT).

    Sell Aguero & Grealish for Vardy & Leicester mid in GW28 which gives me a full starting 11.

    A full bench of blankers in GW28 also means I'll have DGW players in other gameweeks.

    Thoughts?

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Good plan - you don't want to lose KDB or any of the SHU guys, they all looked primed for points

      Good timing to hop back onto Vardy as well, and Pep will surely have done a few Peps with Kun by then anyway with Europe etc starting up again

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks Maximus!

      2. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        When is the earliest we can expect another GW?
        There will be a bigger group of teams missing due to the FA cup. i don't have a FH so I must work towards a minimum of 8 players the WC.

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Seems like you have it covered. I'd be happy witht that.

    3. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If everything goes well, it should be fine. Will you play Egan over Stephens after this week?

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I still have to decide on which SHU defenders I want.

        If I go Robbo I can get O'Connell & Egan.

        If VVD then I can get Stevens & O'Connell/Egan.

        Will probably start SHU def over Soton def every week.

    4. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Me:
      Lund KDB Mahrez
      easy to get round the problem.
      Lund could have gone already and KDB will be kept.
      Not changed Mahrez as I don't see anything better.

    5. Stimps
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Sell Grealish for Leicester mid? Not for me

  7. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Steven Bergwijn to Spurs

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Too many wingers

      1. GreennRed
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I've seen a Spurs fansite rate him higher than Moura. But he's never played PL and most new signings have an initial glow of high hopes.

    2. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Has all the makings of a spurs flop imo

  8. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Henderson Mccarthy
    TAA VVD Lundstram Stephens Lascelles
    Salah KDB Grealish Perez Traore
    Jiminez Aubameyang Ings

    0.5 ITB on a WC.

    Could this turn into a benching headache? Feel the team is too well balanced?? Shall i drop Perez for Mooy/Fleck/Cantwell?

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Could do, but Perez sets you up nicely for when Auba/KDB blank in GW28. Like it pal

    2. milanista10
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Nice team.
      I had a very similar draft earlier but had the same concerns over benching headaches & whether I trust Perez enough. I’m considering shipping him to a cheaper mid (Trossard, Saint Maximin maybe?) and upgrading Lundstram to Stevens (safer & had better stats recently)..

    3. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      lund would be no where near my WC, is he nailed or performing. Check on Stevens stats, there is a haul coming....

  9. milanista10
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone considering Trossard in a WC?

    1. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Awkward price

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        What is awkward about his price mate ?

    2. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I have had him in draft all year and he is a nightmare with being rotated

      1. milanista10
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah noticed that. It’s weird that he performs well when given the chance but he does seem to miss out frequently!
        Tempting that he has a nice GW28 fixture!

        1. GreennRed
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          A bit injury-prone I think.

  10. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    With fixtures, blanks, double etc. unclear as yet, is it then better off to stick with this team & save FT rather than WC-ing?

    Ryan
    TAA Soyuncu Lundstram
    Salah [C] KDB Martial Grealish Traore
    Vardy Firmino

    Gazza Ings Rico Aurier

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I like the side pal, roll imo.

      1. Magic Zico
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Ok cheers

  11. ElliotJHP
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A) Snoddy -> Traore
    B) Kelly -> Lascelles
    C) Roll FT

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

  12. Rhodes your boat
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Moura to grealish here?
    Want jimi for dcl soon too. 1FT 0.5itb

    Guiata button
    Taa Lund soy kelly Cathcart
    Salah mane kdb moura dendo
    Vardy ings dcl

    1. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Can do - he blanks 28 of course though

      1. Rhodes your boat
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Traoré a better option? Allows me to get jimi

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You can go for Fleck, gives cash for Dominic to Jimenez.

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Not trying to cover or get rid of Mane?

        1. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Tempted to hold due to fixtures and can save 2ft that way from moving him out and back in again

      2. Rhodes your boat
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        True, fleck or Traoré? Wish I hadn’t got rid of jimi

        1. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          If you are fine with WOL double, Traore. Fleck to spread the risk.

          1. Rhodes your boat
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Good point I’ll have a think!

          2. Rhodes your boat
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Thanks Holmes

  13. It's his Job.
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Appreciated a little advice! any issues or G2G?

    Henderson
    Taa Lund Holgate
    Salah Martial Grealish Kdb
    Vardy Firm Ings

    McCarthy-Rico-Kelly-Dendo
    0.7 ITB

  14. balint84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Vardy to Auba (-4)?

    1. It's his Job.
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thats my next GW Move. but not for a -

    2. KirillFCZ
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      The same thought here and cannot decide.

    3. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      definitely not for a hit

  15. rdpx
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A. Auba, Perez, Gomez
    B. Auba, Fleck, VVD
    C. Aguero, Fleck, Gomez

    ?

    (All -4)
    (All dropping Mané and losing £0.4m)

  16. Rhodes your boat
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    How many is mane expected to miss from current news?

    1. cigan
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Tonight and Southampton

  17. aborg
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    All this talk about managers wanting to bring in Auba on WC.

    I will just mention one keyword and do what you want with that.......'Barca'

    1. KirillFCZ
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'll need several words, but here you go: it's easy to get Vardy back in my team in one transfer.

    2. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      We'll know for sure before the deadline though.

  18. only2
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Aubame will be back this weekend, right?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Officially yes but may prefer to visit Spain.

    2. Arteta
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      He's had his rest for this season and should return in the starting XI now.

    3. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Hope so!

  19. Better off with a pin and a…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Current WC:

    Pope, Foster
    VVD, TAA, Lascelles, O'Connell, Lundstram
    Salah, KDB, Perez, Traore, Mooy
    Wood, Auba, Ings

    2.3 in the bank; where best to spend it? Temptations:
    Wood->Jimi (but I quite fancy Wood on recent team and personal form and with good fixtures)
    Wood->Vardy and downgrade elsewhere (Traore->Dendonker)
    Upgrade in defense? (I'm tempted by Kolasinac in the hope he'll be fit, Lundy->Stevens)
    Keep some cash to deal with the inevitable issues....

    Thanks for any ideas!

  20. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Why is Mahrez flagged?

  21. AbsolutelyNoIdea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Quick question
    If your TC is on Mane do you get your VC score in lpools game tonight as TC?

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You'll get triple whatever Mane scores tonight

    2. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      😀 You wish