Welcome to another Fantasy Premier League Fantasy Points Against (FPLFPA) article. In this one I’m going to look specifically at the teams we know will play in both Gameweek 28 and 31. The point of this is for those who are not using their Wildcard or Free Hit chip, or for those who have a few players with blanks upcoming and need some cover. The teams we know to date (end of Gameweek 26) that will play in both Gameweek 28 and 31 are Bournemouth, Burnley, Watford and Wolves.
Before I jump into this, if you’d like to follow me on Twitter you can do so @RichP_LFC.
Using Fantasy Points Against as a metric isn’t well known in the FPL Community, but it can be a valuable addition to all of the other research we do when trying to identify players for our squads. Much like any metric it has hits (see Nicolas Pépé in Gameweek 26) and misses (see Pépé in Gameweek 25), so, as always, use this as part of a well-balanced diet of numerous different statistics, rather than just using it as the Holy Grail. Let it help you make decisions or justify ideas, rather than placing all of your faith in it.
If you’re not familiar with the initial article going into the detail of the metric and the FPA fixture ticker make sure to catch up here. When you’re ready, we’ll get straight into it:
Goalkeepers
Just a quick note – The Ticker doesn’t contain the blanks yet, and this was written before Manchester City v West Ham.
What we want to be looking for are teams that score highly in terms of Fantasy Points For (FPF) playing teams that score highly in terms of Fantasy Points Against (FPA). For FPA, Watford give up the second most Fantasy Points to Goalkeepers. Bournemouth are just outside the top five, whereas Wolves give up the second least points. Burnley are just outside the bottom five. In terms of FPF, both Burnley and Watford are in the top five for most Fantasy Points scored by their Goalkeepers. Wolves are just outside the top five (by one point) and Bournemouth are just outside the bottom five, for least points scored by their goalkeepers. So we ideally want players from our four teams playing in both Gameweek 28 and 31, that are high on the FPF table and playing teams that are high on the FPA table.
Let’s check the FPA Fixture Ticker for Goalkeepers:
This shows us that both Bournemouth and Watford play two of the five teams in these four Gameweeks that give up the least points to goalkeepers. Burnley play two of the five teams that give up the most Fantasy Points to goalkeepers (but also play Man City). All of Wolves fixtures are against teams in the middle of the FPA table. However, Rui Patrício (£5.1m) is one point off the top five goalkeepers in terms of FPF. As Nick Pope (£4.7m) is top five for FPF, and plays two teams that give up the most points to goalkeepers, he is our early front runner.
We can also drill this down to home and away matches:
Let’s review each Keeper against their specific fixtures now:
Aaron Ramsdale (4.6m)
- Chelsea (H) – Chelsea are middling overall in terms of Fantasy Points allowed to goalkeepers. When playing away, they give up the second least points to goalkeepers.
- Liverpool (A) – Liverpool give up the least points overall to goalkeepers, and the second least when playing at home.
- Crystal Palace (H) – Palace are in the top five for most Fantasy Points allowed to goalkeepers, but middling when playing away from home.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) – Wolves are in the bottom five for Fantasy Points allowed to goalkeepersand also in the bottom 5 when playing at home.
Bournemouth are just outside the bottom five for Fantasy Points scored for the goalkeeper position. They score the third least goalkeeper points at home, but the fourth most when playing away.
As their away fixtures are at Liverpool and Wolves, I think we can eliminate Bournemouth and Ramsdale based on this.
Nick Pope (£4.7m)
- Newcastle United (A) – Newcastle are just inside the top five for most Fantasy Points allowed to opposing goalkeepers overall, and in the top five when playing at home.
- Tottenham Hotspur (H) – Spurs are just outside the bottom five for FPA for goalkeepers but are in the top five for points allowed to goalkeepers when playing away.
- Manchester City (A) – Man City are in the bottom five for points allowed to goalkeepers both overall and when playing at home.
- Watford (H) – Watford give up the second most points overall to goalkeepers, and are just outside the top five when playing away.
Burnley are third overall for FPF, and in the top five when playing at home and just outside the top five when playing away.
From this I would say Pope is a decent option, even with the Man City game.
Ben Foster (£4.9m)
- Liverpool (H) – Liverpool give up the least points overall to goalkeepers, and the least overall when playing away.
- Crystal Palace (A) – Palace are in the top five for most Fantasy Points allowed to goalkeepers and top five when playing at home.
- Leicester City (H) – Leicester are in the bottom five overall for Fantasy Points allowed to goalkeepers, however they are in the top five when playing away.
- Burnley (A) – Burnley are just outside the bottom five for points allowed to goalkeepers, and middling when playing at home.
Watford are in the top five for Fantasy Points scored by goalkeepers. They have scored the most goalkeeper points at home, but are in the bottom five when playing away.
As their home fixtures are to Liverpool and Leicester, Foster could be an avoid. However, he’s been known to haul, can generate points from saves and is top of the tree for bonus points.
Rui Patrício (£5.1m)
- Tottenham Hotspur (A) – Spurs are just outside the bottom five for FPA to goalkeepers and also just outside the bottom five when playing at home.
- Brighton (H) – Brighton are just outside the top five for points allowed to goalkeepers and middling when playing away.
- West Ham United (A) – West Ham are middling both overall and when playing at home for Fantasy Points allowed to goalkeepers.
- Bournemouth (H) – Bournemouth are just outside the top five for points allowed to goalkeepers overall and in the top five when playing away.
Wolves are one point outside the top five for FPF overall, in the top five when playing at home, and middling when playing away.
With this in mind, Patricio could be a good option. However this is down to your budget as of the four goalkeepers I’ve highlighted, he is the most expensive at £5.1m.
Defenders
None of our four teams are in the top five for FPF, however Wolves are just outside. Bournemouth are just outside the bottom five for Fantasy Points scored by defenders. Watford and Burnley are in the top five for most points allowed to Defenders, with Bournemouth just outside. Wolves are one of the five teams to give up the least points to defenders.
Bournemouth and Watford again look to have tough fixtures, with two red fixtures a piece. Burnley have a green when they play Watford, and Wolves play middling teams each week.
Bournemouth Defenders
- Chelsea (H) – Chelsea are middling overall for Fantasy Points allowed to defenders and in the bottom five when playing away, giving up the fourth least points.
- Liverpool (A) – Liverpool give up the second least points overall to defenders and joint least when playing at home.
- Crystal Palace (H) – Palace are in the top five overall for most points allowed to defenders and just outside the top five when playing away.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) – Wolves are bottom five both overall and when playing at home for fantasy points allowed to defenders.
Bournemouth are just outside the bottom five for FPF overall, in the bottom five when playing away and middling when playing at home. With the lack of fantasy points and those fixtures I wouldn’t be looking at their defenders.
Burnley Defenders
- Newcastle United (A) – Newcastle are just outside the top five overall for points allowed to defenders and in the top five when they play at home.
- Tottenham Hotspur (H) – Spurs are middling both overall and when playing away from home for points allowed to defenders.
- Manchester City (A) – Man City give up the least points overall to defenders and least points when they play at home.
- Watford (H) – Watford give up the most points overall to defenders and are also in the top five when playing away.
Burnley are middling for Fantasy Points scored by defenders overall, and both home and away. Budget dependent, they could be worth a punt with a couple of decent fixtures.
Watford Defenders
- Liverpool (H) – Liverpool are in the bottom five for Fantasy Points allowed to defenders both overall and when playing away.
- Crystal Palace (A) – Palace are in the top five for points allowed to defenders both overall and when playing at home.
- Leicester City (H) – Leicester are in the bottom five for Fantasy Points allowed to defenders both overall and when playing away.
- Burnley (A) – Burnley are in the top five for FPA for defenders overall, but middling when playing at home.
Watford are middling in terms of fantasy points scored by defenders both overall and when at home, but score in the bottom five when playing away. The Palace and Burnley fixtures may be okay, but I’d likely avoid unless budget is stretched and you want a punt on the likes of Craig Cathcart (£4.4m), Adam Masina (£4.3m) or Christian Kabasele (£4.3m).
Wolverhampton Wanderers Defenders
- Tottenham Hotspur (A) – Spurs are middling both overall and when playing at home for points allowed to defenders.
- Brighton (H) – Brighton are middling both overall and when playing away from home for points allowed to defenders.
- West Ham United (A) – West Ham are middling both overall and when playing at home for points allowed to defenders.
- Bournemouth (H) – Bournemouth are just outside the top five for Fantasy Points allowed to defenders overall and in the top five on their travels.
Wolves are just outside the top five overall, in the top five away from home and middling at home. With Willy Boly (£4.7m) back, Wolves have kept back to back clean sheets, so their defenders could be a great shout for the upcoming blanks. I particularly like the look of Jonny Otto (£5.4m), but budget will determine if I can get him or Matt Doherty (£6.1m), or have to settle for a Romain Saiss (4.4m) or Boly. Boly seems to be great value at £4.7 however.
Midfielders
Both Burnley and Bournemouth feature in the top five for Fantasy Points allowed to midfielders, and Watford are just outside it. Wolves are just outside the bottom five. In terms of Points Scored, all four of our teams are either in the bottom five or just outside it. This could be slim pickings.
Watford, somewhat annoyingly, have the worst fixtures of our four. This is a spanner in the works as I was thinking about Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.7m) and Ismaila Sarr (£6.2m). Still, if you have a bench option you could use then they could be benched for the tough fixtures. Wolves fixtures look to be the best, so Adama Traore (£5.8m) is naturally a consideration here. Ashley Westwood (£5.4m) of Burnley was mentioned in my initial article, so could be one to consider. Harry Wilson (£5.8m) and Ryan Fraser (£6.8m) of Bournemouth could be worth a look as well, but the fixtures are not great.
Bournemouth Midfielders
- Chelsea (H) – Chelsea are middling both overall and when playing away, in terms of points allowed to midfielders.
- Liverpool (A) – Liverpool give up the least points overall to midfielders and the least overall when playing at home.
- Crystal Palace (H) – Palace are middling both overall and when playing away, in terms of points allowed to Midfielders.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) – Wolves are middling both overall and when playing at home, in terms of points allowed to Midfielders.
Bournemouth are in the bottom five for least points scored by Midfielders when playing at home, just outside the bottom five when playing away and second bottom overall. Aside from Harry Wilson and Ryan Fraser there isn’t a lot here to tempt me. If I had to pick one, I’d go for Harry Wilson at £5.8m. He’s currently £1m cheaper than Fraser.
Burnley Midfielders
- Newcastle United (a) – Newcastle are in the top five teams for most points conceded to midfielders overall, and middling when playing at home.
- Tottenham Hotspur (H) – Spurs are just outside the bottom five for points conceded to midfielders overall and in the bottom five on their travels, conceding the second least.
- Manchester City (A) – Man City are middling both overall and when playing at home for fantasy points conceded to midfielders. Food for thought here.
- Watford (H) – Watford are just outside the top five for most fantasy points conceded to midfielders overall, and second overall for points conceded to midfielders when playing away.
Burnley are in the bottom five both overall and away for points scored by midfielders, and middling at home. Spurs aside (and probably Man City, but the metric gives some hope) these fixtures are not too bad. I’d be looking at Dwight McNeil (£6m) or Ashley Westwood (£5.4m) here if I was targeting Burnley, siding with Westwood as it stands based on form and price.
Watford Midfielders
- Liverpool (H) – Liverpool give up the least points overall to midfielders and the least overall when playing away.
- Crystal Palace (A) – Palace are middling both overall and when playing at home, in terms of points allowed to midfielders
- Leicester City (H) – Leicester are in the bottom five both overall and away, in terms of Fantasy Points allowed to midfielders.
- Burnley (A) – Burnley are in the top five for Fantasy Points allowed to midfielders both overall and when they play at home.
Watford are in the bottom five for FPF overall, bottom five when playing at home and just outside the bottom five when playing away. These are tricky fixtures, so players like Ismaila Sarr (£6.2m) and Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.7m) could be a risk here. On form and price I’d go for Doucoure, but you know the risks here. The Burnley fixture could be a good one.
Wolverhampton Wanderers Midfielders
- Tottenham Hotspur (A) – Spurs are just outside the bottom five for points conceded to midfielders overall and in the bottom five playing at home.
- Brighton (h) – Brighton are just outside the top five for most points conceded to midfielders overall and they are in the top five on their travels.
- West Ham United (A) – West Ham are just outside the top five overall for most points conceded to midfielders and in the top five when playing at home.
- Bournemouth (H) – Bournemouth concede the most points overall to midfielders and the second most on their travels.
Wolves are just outside the bottom five teams for FPF in terms of midfielders, middling when playing at home and in the bottom five when playing away. The front runner here would likely be Adama Traore (£5.8m) as he is playing as a winger in part of a front 3. He could be a rotation risk whilst when Wolves have Europa League games, and he’s also carrying a shoulder injury, so does come with a bit of risk. Other considerations could be Joao Moutinho (£5.4m) or Ruben Neves (£5.2m).
Forwards
Wolves and Burnley are in our top five teams for FPF for forwards. None of the teams are in the bottom five.
Only Wolves of our four teams have a green fixture between Gameweek 28 and Gameweek 31. Immediate thoughts swing to Raúl Jiménez (£7.8m), but let’s give the other guys a chance and review the fixtures…
Bournemouth Forwards
- Chelsea (H) – Chelsea are just outside the bottom five for Fantasy Points allowed to Forwards overall, but just outside the top five for most Fantasy Points allowed to forwards when playing away.
- Liverpool (A) – Liverpool give up the least Fantasy Points to forwards both overall and when playing at home
- Crystal Palace (H) – Palace are middling overall but just outside the top five when playing away, for Fantasy Points allowed to forwards
- Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) – Wolves are middling both overall and when playing at home for FPA to forwards.
Bournemouth are middling overall, in the top five at home and middling away for Fantasy Points scored by forwards. The fixtures are not great, but if you’re considering any forward here, it would be Callum Wilson (£7.4m) who has two goals in his last three appearances.
Burnley Forwards
- Newcastle United (A) – Newcastle are middling overall, but in the bottom five for FPA to forwards when playing at home.
- Tottenham Hotspur (H) – Spurs are middling both overall and when playing away in terms of points allowed to forwards.
- Manchester City (A) – Man City are in the bottom five both overall and when playing at home for points allowed to forwards.
- Watford (H) – Watford are middling overall and in the bottom five when playing away for points allowed to forwards.
Burnley are in the top five overall, home and away for Fantasy Points scored by forwards. Chris Wood (£6.3m) is currently the main man with Ashley Barnes (£6.1m) injured. Jay Rodriguez (£5.7m) has been partnering him. Wood picked up an injury himself, and the fixtures are not great, so I’d probably swerve Burnley forwards.
Watford Forwards
- Liverpool (H) – Liverpool give up the least Fantasy Points to forwards both overall and when playing away
- Crystal Palace (A) – Palace are middling overall and at home, for Fantasy Points allowed to forwards
- Leicester City (H) – Leicester are in the bottom five both overall and when playing away for points allowed to forwards.
- Burnley (A) – Burnley are middling both overall and when playing at home for points allowed to forwards
Watford forwards are middling across the board here. Troy Deeney (£6.3m) and Gerard Deulofeu (£6.1m) would be our considerations. Again though, the fixtures just aren’t great. If I had to pick one, it would probably be Deeney, he is in better form and on penalties.
Wolverhampton Wanderers Forwards
- Tottenham Hotspur (A) – Spurs are middling both overall and when playing at home in terms of points allowed to forwards.
- Brighton (H) – Brighton are middling both overall and when playing away in terms of points allowed to forwards.
- West Ham United (A) – West Ham are in the top five both overall and when playing at home for points allowed to forwards.
- Bournemouth (H) – Bournemouth are middling overall and when playing away for points allowed to forwards.
Wolves are in the top five both overall and when playing away, for points scored by forwards. They are middling at home. Raúl Jiménez (£7.8m) has to be your guy here. As mentioned in my Outliers article, Jiménez has scored a whopping 62% of Wolves total points scored by forwards. If you can’t afford him, you could risk a pick on Diogo Jota (£6.1m).
Conclusion
From reviewing all of that, we do have some intriguing options that play both Gameweeks 28 and 31. A lot of your picks will depend on who you may be able to switch these guys for on your bench, when you have favorable fixtures. I’ll likely go Nick Pope for example, as my main Keeper is Dean Henderson. When Burnley play away to Man City in Gameweek 30, I can stick with Henderson as he is away to Newcastle.
To pick one player/team at each position is difficult, but we’ll have a go and see what happens.
Goalkeeper: Nick Pope.
He edges out Patricio purely on value. That £0.4m could be well spent elsewhere. I’ll be bringing Pope in to cover both Gameweek 28 and 31 when Henderson blanks.
Defenders: Wolves.
This one was a tough call between Wolves and Burnley defenders. I’ve gone Wolves as they are the better team and I feel they have a better chance at clean sheets. If you’re looking solely at using these for Gameweek 28 and 31, Burnley may be the better option, someone like Charlie Taylor (£4.2m) could be a lovely shout. But as I’m looking at the long term, I’ll be going Wolves here, probably Boly. Plus I’ll have Burnley cover with Pope in goal.
Midfielders: Burnley
Controversial, I know. Adama Traore of Wolves could do very well indeed, and he’d be the easy choice, but I’m going for a punt here, with Ashley Westwood being the pick I would make. The injury/rotation risks with Traore may put some people off and I’d bench Westwood for the fixtures against Spurs and City, hoping for returns against Newcastle and Watford.
Forwards: Raul Jimenez
The easy pick, but there really isn’t anyone else I’d consider. Wood, Deeney and Wilson could well return, but Jimenez is so consistent he’s difficult to avoid.
So there you have it. I hope you found this stuff useful, as a metric that isn’t well known or considered. I certainly wouldn’t use it on its own as it has hits and misses like any other, but it can help with decision making no end and it throws up some interesting points not noticed with other metrics.
Please retweet, share and get this out there people! And please follow me @RichP_LFC. for more!
4 years, 1 month ago
Thanks for the write up!
Glad to see McNeil pop up there. Hoping he can get me something this week on the bench boost.