Pro Pundits - Simon

Are differentials always the most effective route to FPL success?

In his latest Pro Pundits column, former Fantasy Premier League champion Simon March talks us through how effective differentials can be for the season run-in.


If you spend any time on Fantasy Football sites and forums which, if you’re reading this, you do, you’ll have noticed people talking a lot about ‘differentials’.

A ‘differential’, is a low-owned player, be that in overall FPL terms or in the context of a mini-league. There is no universal definition of what constitutes a differential in overall FPL, but it usually applies to players with sub-20% ownership with a ‘true differential’ being a player with sub-5%. Within discussions of differentials, a player becomes ‘more of a differential’ the lower his overall ownership.

What I’ll call; ‘differential theory’ refers to the idea that, if a low-owned player scores well they will, by virtue of their low-ownership, have a positive effect on the ranks of those managers that do own them.

The inverse of this philosophy is the apocryphal ‘Template’ which argues that, if your team resembles too many other teams, you won’t be able to advance up the ranks, strengthening the case for differentials. 

Discussions of differentials intensify toward the end of the season when people are making last-gasp attempts to move up the overall ranks or win their mini-leagues. But does differential theory actually work in practice?

Do Differentials Work?

Differential theory can work. Logically, if you own an otherwise low-owned player who has scored well, the likelihood that this will, when looked at in isolation, translate into a net benefit for you rank-wise should be quite high. Everyone has, at some point, benefitted from a differential and FPL is littered with examples of them paying off, so it’s something we tend to believe quite strongly in.

However, owning even a high-scoring differential won’t pay off on its own. For this to happen, the higher-owned alternatives also have to score fewer points. In other words; if a 5% owned player and a 50% owned player both score 10 points, their ownership percentages become less relevant. The differential has to outscore the more popular alternatives to have a net-positive effect.

As bookies and weathermen will be all too familiar with, when formulating the probability of an outcome, the more variables that you have to insert into the formula, the lower the probability of that outcome occurring typically becomes.

Gameweek 32+ Scout Picks focus on Arsenal, Wolves and Man United

The likelihood of your differential delivering a net positive score is, therefore; the probability of your differential scoring offset against the probability of a higher-owned player also scoring. Given that highly-owned players often score well (which is often why they’re highly-owned) and low-owned players often don’t (which is often why they’re low-owned), this is not a formula you would expect to pay off regularly and, maybe, not even very often.

You often see mention of “high risk, high reward” options on FPL forums but you will sometimes get the impression that, actually, they’re looking at ‘risk’ and ‘reward’ as if more risk equals more reward. Of course more risk may result in more reward on occasion, but your expected payoff will always be reward divided by risk so, on average, more risk will equal less reward.

Of course, differentials may be differentials because they’ve just come into the team or come back from injury. In such cases, their prospects might be much better, though these types of players naturally carry their own inherent risks.

Does ‘The Template’ Exist?

 1

So how do you move up the ranks then? Surely you can’t do it just by owning the well-owned players? Well, yes and no. If you take a look at my current team below, there aren’t many players who you would call a ‘true’ differential. In fact, only Mason Holgate (£4.3m) and Todd Cantwell (£4.6m) are under 15% ownership (13% each). In other words, it’s fairly ‘template’.

It might surprise people to learn therefore that not a single other manager in the top 10k has the same combination of players. Even if you remove my three lowest-owned players from the equation (the above plus Ings at 21%) only 0.11% or 11 people have the same team as me in the Top 10k.

While this isn’t conclusive proof that the ‘template’ is, in fact, a myth, it definitely suggests that we exaggerate its significance. This, of course, is less likely to apply to mini leagues with relatively few entrants, but I’m afraid that scenario is for another article.

Impact on FPL Strategy

What does this all mean for FPL strategy? Well, to me it suggests that focusing on differentials and ownership percentages won’t be as beneficial to your success as focusing on which players will score the most is likely to be. So, yet again, however complicated we make FPL, it ultimately still comes down to picking the players who will score the most points. There is a potential benefit to a good differential, but it’s important to ask yourself; are they ‘good’, and not just ‘different’. Will they really outscore the more popular alternatives?

In conclusion, while I wouldn’t rule out the benefit of a good punty differential, and there is definitely a time and a place for them (e.g. when you’re desperate or when you’re a bit drunk), placing yourself at the mercy of them too frequently will almost certainly not pay off over time.

The better option, I believe, is not to focus on ownership percentages at all but, instead, focus only on expected points. Over the course of a season, consistency, I believe, will always be the best differential.

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 32+

1,031 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    What would you do here?

    Pope
    TAA Robbo Doherty Saiss
    Salah Bruno Martial KDB
    DCL Jim

    Martinez Sarr Ayew Ward`

    1FT 0.0 ITB

    A Save FT
    B Sarr -> Foden bench Saiss(ARS)
    C Something else?

    Thanks

    1. Ini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Save the transfer

    2. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I’d save FT. Nice team.
      Would probably start Sarr over Saiss though.

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I like B but wait until you see Foden game time on Thursday- if he should start then A

    4. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

    5. 7shadesofsmoke
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Save.

      That is one saucy little squad

  2. Jimbo-Jones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    2k rank and 100 clear in ML so looking to consolidate really - fairly template team but 2ft.
    Anything to do here?

    Pope
    TAA Doherty Lascelles Maguire
    Salah KDB Son Bruno
    Rashford Jimenez

    Nketiah Guendouzi Robinson

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Lascelles -> Aurier?

      1. 7shadesofsmoke
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        +1

    2. Dreaming of glory
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Bruno/son > martial
      Guen > foden if u have funds after the above

  3. kime67
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Sometimes i gorget the season did not begin and it will end soon, the fpl emptyness hits again soon...

    1. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Quick turn around though until next season starts so don't beat yourself up too much.

    2. Party time
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I’m really sorry

    3. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      17 mind to know, officially, that bruno will get rested

    4. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Can we buy FFS a book on risk management please. Utterly screwed it up in this article.

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        As do most people in the comments in fairness

        1. panda07
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          I pick what I think are the best options regardless of the risks involved unless I'm defending the lead. This is a game not investment.

      2. Easy Cheesy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Why?

      3. Ógie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        If man never took a risk Gink then they would be still up in the trees safe from the predators. 😉

    5. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Who cares if Bruno is rested - all the good managers have him. Watch out B'mouth.

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        As I've bench boosted I give a crap.

        1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          fair comment

        2. Botman and Robben
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Me too.

        3. FPL price manipulators are …
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          *good managers

      2. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        May as well say, who cares about football, results dont matter

      3. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Good luck to all the good managers then!

      4. fr3d
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        He's been averaging 2 points for me. Don't care if I get 1 from him tonight

      5. HashAttack
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Prefer him to be rested and not play at all ... Aurier first sub

        1. Pedersen
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Ings.... Let him stay out please

          1. HashAttack
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Points in the bag hurt more ... at least if Bruno only gets 1 point, I can hope that Aurier has a bad match

        2. Big_Andy_GAWA
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          I did Martial on my W/C instead of he. Has worked out okay so far... 😀

    6. Shark Team
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Rate my WC team
      Pope
      TAA AWB Doherty Saiss
      Salah KDB Mahrez Martial
      Rashford Jimenez
      Bench: Button, Nketiah, Guendouzi, Lamptey

      *My only concern is that I want to climb ranks but I don't have any big differentials ATM

      What do.yiu think? Thanks

    7. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      City selling their best winger for just 41m

      1. Rolls-Royce
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Not much they can do though

      2. kime67
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        overrated

        1. goriuanx
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          You can be overrated and very good at the same time.

        2. fr3d
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Probably the most underrated player in the league

      3. ZimZalabim
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        its all good they're getting grealish for 80

      4. FPL price manipulators are …
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Good business for City standards

      5. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Really wanted him to play regularly but somehow it never happened

    8. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Any Liverpool fans here been following up on potential transfers? Is Klopp looking to bring in new blood?

      1. Pep's Money Laundry
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Unlikely to be any new signings, if there is it will near the end of the transfer window

      2. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        All the news from Athletic, Liv Echo etc is that Liverpool won't be spending much.

        Klopp's comments in papers last night pretty much echo the same.

      3. Botman and Robben
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers.

      4. WD27
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I would love to sign Leroy..

    9. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Puli likey to start from bench tomorrow?

      1. JohnnyRev7
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Based on what Lamps said; yes.

    10. The Train Driver
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Saka decent sub if Ritchie doesn't play?

      1. Botman and Robben
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Against Norwich, yes.

      2. Rolls-Royce
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Yeah, I guess

        1. Pulisic 4 President
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Against Norwich, no.

          -Norwich Fan

          -Not based on any logic

    11. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Team news in 6 mins, will be shocked if Bruno starts.

      1. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Fail to understand the logic in giving him 120 mins in a FA Cup game when CL qualification is on the line with only a few games to go.

        And far more important for the club and potential transfers.

        1. Rolls-Royce
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          He crooked Rashford earlier in the season. Needs some player's fitness management coaching.

          1. goriuanx
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Yes, and luckily Rashford seemingly got away with it. Hopefully the back issue doesn't reoccur, because that's on Ole 100%.

            1. The Ejiptian King
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 9 months ago

              Maybe got away without permanent damage but he would've missed the end of the season if not for the pandemic, we probably got the biggest advantage from anyone because of the break, us and Spurs but Jose doesn't use his attackers anyway so not sure he needs them back.

      2. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I'll be shocked if he doesn't.

        1. Rolls-Royce
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Ole is a twerp so might not be much of a shock

    12. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Would you bench DCL for Aurier?

      1. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        no other choice?

        1. RamaJama
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Considering getting Aurier for Holgate, but won’t bench any of TAA, Doherty and AWB

          1. OverTinker
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Then we are exactly in similar boat 😀

            1. OverTinker
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 9 months ago

              *same boat

        2. OverTinker
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          I guess Aurier is better than a budget price forward

      2. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Yes, aurier plays as a winger

      3. drughi
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Tough one but yeah probably, thinking of benching DCL for saiss. Cant see everton scoring more then 1 goal

    13. L S P
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      What to do with Sarr with NOR/NEW/whu on the horizon?

      DDG-Button
      TAA-Doherty-Lascelles-Saiss-Masina
      Salah-KDB-Bruno-Sarr-Saka
      Rashford-Jimi-DCL

      2 FTs, .3ITB

      A) Sarr->Foden, bank a FT (maybe bring Sarr back for NEW/NOR/whu)
      B) Sarr/Saka->Pulisic/fodder (if Puli is fit)
      C) Sarr/DCL->Mahrez/Nketiah
      D) Sarr/Doh->Mahrez/Holgate

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Kind of like C if any. Would monitor nketiah's and mahrez' gametime this week. But DCL could come back to haunt you

        1. L S P
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          agree - stats are there. though TOT (a) aint a great fixture.

          Really conflicted about what to do.

    14. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Which move do you prefer guys? (obviously not pulling the trigger before games are played)

      A) Auba + Perez -> Jesus + B. Fernandes - 4
      B) Auba + Perez -> Rashford + Mahrez -4

      Current team:

      Dubravka
      TAA Aurier Taylor
      Salah KDB Martial Traore
      Auba* Jimenez DCL
      ____
      Martinez Perez* Boly Lundstram

      Still got BB (!?)

      1. KunDogan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        B

      2. L S P
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        B

      3. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Care to elaborate guys?

        1. L S P
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          the #1 player I'd like to have is Mahrez. Jesus is too inconsistent for me. As you can see, I own Bruno+Rashford, but Mahrez seals the deal for me.

          Perez definitely needs to go but I also expect that Auba isn't done scoring this season

          1. FC Hakkebøf
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Definetely not done, but he should be scoring quite often at that pricerange. Thanks for input

    15. 7shadesofsmoke
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Pope
      TA Doherty AWB
      Mane KDB Son Martial Traore
      Jimenez Rashford

      3.9 / Aurier Robinson Nketiah

      Tell me that is not perfection

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        It is not perfection

      2. _Ninja_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Decent team, Would rather Salah

        Traore benched a lot.

    16. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      where to find captaincy stats?

      1. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        *ownership stats

        1. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          livefpl.net

        2. 7shadesofsmoke
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          https://www.livefpl.net i think

      2. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        thanks

    17. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Fernandes starts

      1. _Ninja_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Sweet

      2. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        DDG
        AWB Lindelof Maguire Shaw
        Pogba Matic
        Greenwood Fernandes Rashford
        Martial

      3. The Ejiptian King
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I thought he would.

        1. KunDogan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Surprised how surprised people are that a regular starter starts 🙂

    18. ClassiX
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      MAN UTD TEAM NEWS
      Starting XI: De Gea, Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Maguire, Shaw, Matic, Pogba, Greenwood, Fernandes, Rashford, Martial.
      Subs: Romero, Bailly, Williams, Fred, Pereira, McTominay, Mata, James, Ighalo.

      BRIGHTON TEAM NEWS
      Starting XI: Ryan, Lamptey, Dunk, Duffy, Burn, Montoya, Bissouma, Stephens, Propper, Mac Allister, Connolly.
      Subs: Button, Schelotto, Bernardo, Gross, Mooy, March, Trossard, Murray, Maupay.

      1. _Ninja_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Maupay bench is a surprise.

      2. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Bruno owner but honestly I am surprised. Come on Martial(C)

      3. Piggs Boson
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        United's best XI.

        C'mon Rashy(C)!

    19. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      MAN UTD TEAM NEWS

      Starting XI: De Gea, Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Maguire, Shaw, Matic, Pogba, Greenwood, Fernandes, Rashford, Martial.

      Subs: Romero, Bailly, Williams, Fred, Pereira, McTominay, Mata, James, Ighalo.

      21:15
      BRIGHTON TEAM NEWS

      Starting XI: Ryan, Lamptey, Dunk, Duffy, Burn, Montoya, Bissouma, Stephens, Propper, Mac Allister, Connolly.

      Subs: Button, Schelotto, Bernardo, Gross, Mooy, March, Trossard, Murray, Maupay

      1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        get in

      2. FOO FIGHTER
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Lamptey looking like a decent bench option.

    20. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      United unchanged as expected

      1. brianutd-why always we? 20
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Nonsense comment

    21. Sim Simma
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      ⚽ Team News 📰
      BHA: Ryan, Duffy, Dunk, Burn, Montoya, Stephens, Bissouma, Pröpper, Lamptey, Connolly, Mac Allister
      Subs: Button, Schelotto, Bernardo, Mooy, Groß, March, Trossard, Murray, Maupay

      MUN: de Gea, Shaw, Wan-Bissaka, Maguire, Lindelöf, Rashford, Pogba, Fernandes, Matic, Greenwood, Martial
      Subs: Romero, Williams, Bailly, James, Pereira, Fred, Mata, McTominay, Ighalo

    22. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      BRUNNNOOOO

      1. Sun Jihai
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        LAMPTEYYYY

    23. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Don't be nervous, Bruno's here baby, I'm at your service
      Tending your cup, sit down, belly up.

    24. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Lol at everyone talking rubbish about Bruno.

      1. Annie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Where’s the guy who was buying drinks if he started

        1. OverTinker
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          haha yes

        2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Buying the drinks

    25. Fudgy
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Why is matic playing

      1. fr3d
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Why wouldn't he

      2. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Because he's actually been very good the last few appearances.

      3. The Ejiptian King
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        He played in the last league game...

    26. Differential C (Mark)
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Bruno starts wtf

      1. Dreaming of glory
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Prob only get 60

        1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          if its 60 and 90 next game id take that

    27. drughi
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Greenwood to steal the show

    28. Zilla
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Well done United cappers

    29. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Hopefully some points from Pogba Bruno Rashford today.

      But more importantly, a Martial blank 🙂

      1. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        This

      2. FOO FIGHTER
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Martial and Rashford hatties incoming...

        First time I have owned Martial lol.

        1. The Ejiptian King
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          I never thought I'd see you owning Martial after what you've previously said about him as a pick.