Pro Pundits - Tom

Identifying the non-‘big six’ clubs with the best early fixtures in 2020/21

One of the world’s best FPL managers, Tom Freeman (aka avfc82), looks at the favourable fixture runs of clubs outside the ‘big six’.


Though football in the COVID-19 era looks and feels different, home advantage is still a thing.

Yes, there has been a slight drop in home win percentage across Europe’s top leagues but the change is not large and, for most clubs outside of the elite, targeting wins at the location you know best still makes the most sense.

So, with this in mind, what I’ve tried to do in this article is identify the teams outside of the traditional ‘big six’ who have the best runs of consecutive, winnable home matches that we can tap into – the types of games managers will be earmarking for three points.

I’ll then offer my thoughts on the stand-out assets from each of the clubs discussed. You’ll notice that I’ve tried to ensure there are a few reasonable away matches thrown in too and that all of the runs I highlight start no later than Gameweek 6. At this stage, there seems little point looking too far ahead, but if it proves popular, it’s something I might revisit further down the line.

Also, because of the type of fixture runs I’ve focused on, I’ve removed games against last season’s Premier League top eight from my analysis, which is worth remembering when viewing the data.



BEST PLAYERS BY POSITION:

1,088 Comments Post a Comment
  1. T.Henry14
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy
    TAA, Egan, Davies
    Salah, Auba, Son, Saint-Maximin
    Werner, Mitrovic, Adams

    (Button - Soucek, Vinagre, Mitchell)

    0.5 ITB for Rashford instead of Son.

    After GW2: Auba to KDB/Sterling, and spread 0.5 for some upgrades (6.5 forward or upgrading Mitchell/Vinagre/GK)

    I can't do better than this.

    1. The Pesci challenge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Rather get rid of salah than son to be honest. Salah to Fernandes

  2. Roy Rovers
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Not moved much from this formation recently.....

    0.5ITB for Ings > Martial

    McCarthy Steer
    TAA Taylor Justin Vinagre Targett
    Aubameyang Salah Greenwood Armstrong Soucek
    Kane Ings (Brewster or Wickham)

    1. The Pesci challenge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Good enough

      1. Roy Rovers
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers Pesci....defence not great but rotate well after GW1.

        Having Kane, Salah, Martial and Auba allows me to shake it up if a player starts well.

  3. Dain Bramage
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What would your team be if they were no blanks week one?
    It’s been a major headache for me and I have never taken so much effort picking my first team.
    This team could definitely effect how good your start will be more so then another other year playing the game.

    1. Roy Rovers
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      See the above.....Auba > KDB/Sterling and Ings > Martial.

      1. Dain Bramage
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        So you wouldn’t start with a different keeper?

  4. Thinkering like a Boss
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    which team would you choose?

    A)
    Mccharthy
    TAA, Davies, Vinagre, Justin
    Salah, Auba, Son, ASM
    Werner, Mitrovic

    Nyland | Mitchell, Brewster, GREENWOOD

    B)
    Mccharthy
    VVD, Davies, Vinagre, Justin
    Salah, Auba, Alli, ASM
    Werner, Mitro

    Nyland | Mitchell, Brewster, RASHFORD

    1. Roy Rovers
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A for me.

      1. Thinkering like a Boss
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yes A more balance and template but I have Greenwood which is no captain material

  5. HollywoodXI
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    GTG?

    McCarthy
    Trent Vinagre Mitchell
    Salah Auba ASM Soucek
    Kane Werner Ings

    4.0 4.5 4.0 4.0

    1. Roy Rovers
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I don't like the two 4.0 defs but I suppose that gives you Werner.

      1. HollywoodXI
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Exactly. I feel it’s worth the downgrade.

        1. Roy Rovers
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          I prefer Martial and see how Werner goes.

          1. HollywoodXI
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Even with Martial’s blank in GW1?

            1. Roy Rovers
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Yeah....

              1. HollywoodXI
                • 9 Years
                3 years, 6 months ago

                Fair enough then mate

          2. JD @JDCochran2
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            I am not sure but a couple of times will we being captaining Werner.

      2. Thinkering like a Boss
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        its three 4.0 defs. no from me

        1. HollywoodXI
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Even if one of them nails a spot?

          1. Thinkering like a Boss
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            yes

        2. Roy Rovers
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Sorry didn't spot Mitchell......No from me.

  6. Bruno Bruno!!
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Have the following draft and feel pretty happy with it:

    McCarthy
    TAA Vinagre Silva Mitchell
    Son Aubameyang Soucek ASM
    Jiminez Werner

    Nylaand Brewster Taylor Rashford

    1. King Henrik
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nice. Very good idea. Keeping a Untied asset. Its something I am considering doing myself. Greenwood would a choice for me.

  7. King Henrik
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hey all. Looking for someone to fill in the blank at 5.5 for a 2nd defender.

    McCarthy
    Trent *** Justin
    Salah Auba Son Asm Pereira
    Mitrovic Werner

    Nyland Vinagre Mitchell Brewster

    Thanks

    1. Bruno Bruno!!
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      tierney or silva

    2. thepuntmaster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Tierney

  8. dshv
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    G2G?

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    Taa Doherty Vinagre (mitchell, taylor)
    Salah Auba Soucek Son Armstrong
    Werner Mitrovic (brewster)

    Have 1.5 itb
    Son to bruno!
    Gw3 auba to kdb

    Any reactions please or rotations ?

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      not bad very good team but you will always stuck with Soucek his fixture is the wooorst!

      1. dshv
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Bas fixtures dont mean west ham not score some goals..

        1. Thinkering like a Boss
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Agree Soucek is indeed capable scoring goal machine

  9. Simon69
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    I recently came to the conclusion that I can't be without Bruno and need to ensure that I've got I've got the cash to bring him in for GW2. It's destroying my head as I can't figure out what players in the 7m and under bracket to bring in from Barnes / Maddison / ASM / Soucek / Armstrong / Keita. That GW1 blank for the Manchesters makes it far more difficult.

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      The solution is to bench him if you really want him.

      There is no outstanding one week punt. Nobody that is playing an obvious whipping boy at home. At least none that you can be reasonably certain will outscore your 4.5m bench cover + 4 points.

      1. Simon69
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        That's possibly the solution. I've been looking at some 5.5s that could possibly score nice points in GW1 i.e Saka and Keita but possibly too punty. Can't look past Bruno - Everything goes through him.

        1. Simon69
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Possibly possibly possibly lol

    2. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      what is your team so far pal?

      1. Simon69
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Currently on:

        McCarthy (Button)

        TAA, Doherty, Vinagre (Taylor, Mitchell)

        Salah, Aubameyang, Son, Soucek, 5.5

        Werner, Adams (Davis)

        1. Simon69
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          1.5m ITB for Son > Bruno

          1. Oi! Shadders!
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            With Salah, Son and Adams, I'm keeping 1.5 itb, then deciding in GW2 whether to do:
            Son > Bruno
            or
            Salah + Adams > Bruno + Martial.
            Just gives me more time to weigh things up.
            Otherwise, I'd be in Camzy's camp of having Bruno on the bench in GW1.

        2. Thinkering like a Boss
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Excellemt team tbh and have extra 1.5m Son > Bruno. 5.5m spot for ASM?

          Good job!

          1. Simon69
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Cheers mate!

          2. Simon69
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Not sure - Tempted by Keita for that last spot.

    3. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      One option is to start with both Salah and Mane, making it an easy immediate move from 12.0 to 10.5 in GW2. This has the added benefit of freeing up 1.5m to reinvest in whatever position you can see by GW3/4 has become a problem. Or, if you're not committed to owning Salah again until GW6, you could start with Salah and move him straight to Bruno. I prefer this to having money itb in GW1 and moving Son etc up to Bruno. Basically, decide how you want to treat Liverpool attack, and go from there.

      1. MINUS FOUR
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Having said that your team looks good. There's nothing wrong with that plan at all, even though it's probably not what I will do. One issue I have is that you've got Son for possibly one of his worst attacking fixtures in the first 8 gameweeks, with a preconceived plan to transfer hims straight out before the fixtures get really promising. GW3 home to Newcastle looks particularly exciting, but you'll have moved on having quite possibly banked your GW1 2-pointer. It feels like a waste of a transfer.

        1. El Presidente
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah, I dont like the Son to Bruno move either

        2. Simon69
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Bit late to your response but I'm weighing this up myself. Contemplating another Arsenal mid possible Pepe or Willian to switch to Bruno. Tough to call.

      2. L S P
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        We’re on the same page with Salah/Mane for GW1. You on Auba too? (I am)

        Though I’m struggling with my two forwards (+4.5) who I’m happy about starting GW 1/2...

  10. Doctor Evil
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    I have changed so many times and keep coming back to this team. Can anyone think of any changes?

    McCarthy 4.0

    TAA Doherty Justin Vinagre 4.0

    Salah Auba Son Soucek 4.5

    Antonio Werner

    2m itb for

    Son to Bruno gw2
    Auba to KDB gw3

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      if you believe this team then do it!

      1. Doctor Evil
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I believe

    2. jimmyabs1987
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Same as me but I have Ali and Kane Vs Son and Werner

    3. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Exact same mid and forwards as me. Have Vinagre and McCarthy, too! Robbo instead of TAA, Digne and Stuarty Dallas.

  11. jimmyabs1987
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Doherty, Alli, Vardy
    B) Tierney, Alli, Kane

    1. thepuntmaster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

  12. dshv
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Doherty or Davies ? 1 min is 1 mil

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Dier

    2. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I am going with Davies just because 1.0M

  13. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    2 or 3 midfield big hitters? From these guys:

    Sterling KDB Salah Mane Bruno, Aubo

    Basically above 11.5m, except Bruno

    1. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Starting with Salah Auba

      Probably getting KDB raheem and Bruno by GW5 or 6

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        No Bruno in GW 2 and 3?

        1. NABIL - FPL otai
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Maybe 3

  14. Pacer.
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Seeing a lot of incredibly creaky teams, even from experienced managers. Squads with with 7-10 players who have some kind of question mark over them.

    Why does it feel like people are taking on more risk this season. Am I imagining this?

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Examples ?

    2. FPL Theorist
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I think it's partly the lack of starting 4.0 defenders, 4.5 mids, and 4.5 forwards.

      Also, there are quite a few cheap players who have a good chance of starting for good teams with great upside as long as they do start, but not necessarily nailed long-term. If managers are looking to wildcard by around the first international break, they probably feel there is little risk with these players.

      Fewer preseason games also could make some players seem riskier than they would if they'd had a normal preseason. The transfer window is still open, making players like Greenwood riskier than if there was no time to make more new signings.

  15. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone know much about sander berge 5m?

    I could be in the market for a 2nd 5m mid (already got soucek)

    Would have to be willing to start berge when necessary

    Sheffield record signing. So should be nailed? Is he worthy of consideration? Thanks

    1. thepuntmaster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I’ve heard good things but think the jury is still out?

      I’d be more tempted to go for 4.5 and use the 0.5 elsewhere?

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        There simply are no 4.5ms who are worth getting tho, are there???

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Berge started all but one of Sheffield United's 10 post lockdown matches but only had 4 shots and created 2 chances in that time. You're not going to get much from him and two £5m midfielders will make your team too inflexible.

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers mate. You are right. Clutching at straws

  16. thepuntmaster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on this bunch?

    McCarthy - Nyland
    TAA - Tierney - Egan - Vinagre - Mitchell
    Salah - Auba - Zaha - ASM - Soucek
    Martial - Ings - Mitro

    Ta!

  17. JD @JDCochran2
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on this captaincy document?

    I tried to highlight teams with high expectancy goals against in green and then of course the 5-6 bigger scoring clubs against them. From each club you can decide your own "C"

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16EmCT_TXszZhL8F7XEDoz6oYT-h5NuFb-92-Letw5qI/edit#gid=0

    Twitter @JDCochran2

  18. Dacra
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    And decent 5.0 defenders? Already have Spurs.

    1. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Egan they said.

      I'm with Doherty and Dier

      1. Dacra
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Don't fancy Egan.

        1. Ser Davos
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Bertrand

  19. NABIL - FPL otai
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    'What’s the plan for United assets?' is the new hi.

    Morning peeps.

  20. dshv
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Tierney or doherty ? (Long term)

    1. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Doherty

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Doherty

  21. Dacra
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Mccarthy (4.0)
    Taa - Davies - Mitchell - Vinagre (Taylor)
    Auba - Salah - Alli - Soucek (Bissouma)
    Werner - Mitro - Martial

    Look good?

    1. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Good-looking.. probably similar to my team if I'm benching martial. Apparently I'm not.

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Like it-lots similar to mine below

      1. unlethal
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        This is almost exactly my team so I rate it highly

  22. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Clearly for week 1 no bench but how’s this team looking? Would you get Ings over Martial week 1 and play and make Ings to Martial transfer week 2?

    McCarthy
    TAA Dier Justin Vinagre
    Salah Aubameyang Alli ASM Soucek
    Werner

    Nyland Brewster Martial Taylor

    1. Dacra
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      ASM, Justin, Brewster to 4.0, 4.5, Mitro and you have my tram.

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I like the ings to martial move.. but then asm would be a waste. Both good planning.. your call.

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Its great mate.

        I can't decide between something like this and a more traditional 343 with mitro and a lighter defence.

        What do u reckon??

        Yours seems to have good depth which may be useful with covid. Id start ings

  23. Coaly
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    How’s this for a top heavy team?

    McCarthy
    TAA Doherty Vinagre Mitchell
    Salah Alli Armstrong Soucek
    Kane Vardy Werner

    (Nyland, Bissouma, Taylor, Davis)

    1. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Could work. I'd rather downgrade Werner and upgrade Armstrong. But really, go with your gut

  24. GavMan01
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    The Team So Far. Thoughts?

    McCarthy . Nyland
    Doherty . Egan . KWP . Robbo . Ferguson
    Salah . ASM . Soucek . Auba . Greenwood
    Werner . Ings . Brewster

    Not sure on KWP. Hoping for Brewster loan to PL club.

    1. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Who is ASM? Cheers.

      1. GavMan01
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Allan Saint Maximin

    2. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Drop Greenwood, benching anything more than 5 is just wrong plan to start

    3. GavMan01
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yeah I know what your saying, but I have 0.5 ITB to go from Ings to Martial GW2 which gives me a double up on ManU by keeping Greenwood.

    4. GavMan01
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Then Auba to KDB GW3?

  25. Sterling Malory
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    I've reshuffled a bit, how's it looking?

    Ramsdale
    TAA Tierney KWP
    Salah Auba Soucek Periera
    Kane Ings Mitro

    Nyland Podence Johnson Mitchell

  26. have you seen cyan
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Any ideas on how to improve this potential bench boost team? wc in 2 or 3
    The ones with a * im not overly happy with

    Ryan* - McCarthy
    Dier - Davies - Robbo - Egan* - Bellerin*
    Auba - Salah - Alli - Armstrong - Soucek
    Werner - Adams* - Mitro*

    0.0itb

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Change the plan imo

    2. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yup, need to start again
      Try 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 without Mitro, dude's a trouble

  27. huwwilliams_
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Is there a better midfield option than Soucek at 5m or below? His fixtures look atrocious at the start of the season just don't see the appeal myself

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He is 7ft3

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Ritchie

        1. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Ritchie is only 5ft4

    2. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nope, he's the best at 5.0

  28. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Does Van de Beek means a possible formation change — and therefore a risk for Greenwood?

    1. sirmorbach
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Mean*

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Naaah imo

      2. huwwilliams_
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        No solskjaer prefers a 4123 formation so if united don't sign sancho, greenwood will be playing most games in that rw position. Dan james the only competition for that position but doesn't seem up to scratch. VDB will either play behind pogba and bruno or as a rotational/ bench option to them two.

  29. tom66
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Will WC before WK 2 to get TAA and Utd / City.
    Current WK1 team below - thoughts?

    McCarthy
    Cresswell - Vinagre - Saliba
    Son - Salah - Auba (c) - Barnes
    Jimenez - Werner - Antonio
    (Nyland - KWP - Stephens - Douglas)

    1. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not sure about the Cresswell and Saliba picks.

      1. tom66
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks - Who do you think is most nailed West Ham defender? Newcastle looked terrible this week.

        1. Bleh
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Cresswell is probably nailed but I would stay clear of WHU defence, even for a week. They’re facing an attacking Saints side too.

          1. Bleh
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Apologies, they’re playing NEW. More chance of a cleanie definitely.

    2. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      GK and DF too light if you're planning WC early. I prefer w/o Salah and double TAA/Robbo, drop Barnes and Jimenez for Havertz and Ings

  30. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Doherty and KWP
    B) Dier and Tierney/AWB

    1. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A