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The FPL Eye Test – Gameweek 4

I’ve never been good with numbers. While stats are heavily used for FPL success these days, I still prefer to make some of my team choices based on watching as much Premier League football as possible. Below are my thoughts from Gameweek 4, as we look ahead to Gameweek 5 and beyond. If you want to follow me you can catch me on FPL_Fetish on Twitter as well.

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace 

The Gameweek kicked off with an impressive performance by Chelsea, though an average one from an FPL perspective. Frank Lampard stuck to his usual 4-2-3-1 formation, chopping and changing personnel rather than the system.

In defence, out went Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.8m), Andreas Christensen (£4.9m), Marcos Alonso (£5.9m) and, most disconcertingly for FPL managers, the attractively-priced Reece James (£5.1m). In came Edouard Mendy (£5.0m), Ben Chilwell (£5.6m), Kurt Zuma (£5.0m) and César Azpilicueta (£5.9m).

In midfield it was Mateo Kovacic (£5.5m) out and Jorginho (£5.2m) in (why these two players interchange every other game only Lampard can answer). Once again, early-season-darling Timo Werner (£9.3m) was banished to the left side of an attacking midfield three, with Tammy Abraham (£7.3m) again preferred up top. 

It was the new-look defence that grabbed all the headlines. Chilwell’s attacking intent was the highlight of the match, with the former Leicester City man getting a goal, an assist, and a clean sheet on an impressive debut.

It is the right side of the Chelsea defence that concerns most FPL managers though: What of Reece James? Has veteran (and captain on the night) Azpilicueta usurped the youngster as Chelsea’s first choice right-back? Will Reece James find a spot at centre-back after Zouma’s impressive goal getting/clean sheet display? 

There are even more questions in attack. The sight of Jorginho and Tammy Abraham in the starting line-up spelt doom for owners of Timo Werner.

Chelsea won two penalties, both dispatched by Jorginho, and any shred of hope that perhaps Werner would take a penalty was extinguished when Abraham and Jorgniho were caught fighting for the chance to take the second penalty. (Jorginho was given the duty after the intervention of captain Azpilicueta, with Abraham seen sulking). This seemingly puts Werner third choice for penalties, further denting the German’s FPL appeal.

It was an abject performance from Crystal Palace. The victories against Southampton, Man United, and the impressive (and unlucky) performance against Everton, will have been overshadowed by this game. Palace’s usual defensive solidity deserted them, with all four goals (two of which were penalties) being soft ones to concede.

After holding their own in the first half, two early second-half goals killed them off, and the Eagles just stopped trying after that. Andros Townsend (£6.1m) was well-shackled by the impressive Chilwell. Wilfred Zaha (£7.2m) was largely anonymous.

Lessons Learned

As stated above, the Chelsea starting XI is far from settled and it will continue to change in the coming weeks as Christian Pulisic (£8.3m) and Hakim Ziyech (£7.9m) make expected comebacks in the near future (the former came on as a sub in this game). Questions linger over Lampard’s preferred back-line and answers are no easier in attack. It is really all up in the air as to Lampard’s intentions with Werner going forward. 

Astute FPL managers will notice that Crystal Palace’s fixtures do ease considerably after the international break. The poor display at Stamford Bridge does raise doubts though. Will Palace return to their organised defensive selves or will we be seeing the errors on show against Chelsea more regularly?

If they do go back to their well-drilled defensive selves, which assets do we target? Will Tyrick Mitchell (£4.1m) retain his place with the return of Patrick van Aanholt (£5.4m)? And will Nathan Ferguson (£4.0m) return to take the place of Joel Ward (£4.5m)? Finally, can/will Zaha and Townsend offer consistent returns in order for managers to trust them over other similarly-priced attacking midfielders?

Everton vs Brighton 

Regulars of this article and observers of English football generally, spent the whole week praising the merits of an improving Brighton side.

From an FPL perspective, their assets didn’t do too badly: Budget-striker Neal Maupay (£6.6m) scored from budget-midfielder Leandro Trossard’s (£6.0m) assist. Bench-fodder-favourite Yves Bissouma (£4.5m) also got in among the goals with budget-friendly-winger Solly March (£5.0m) assisting.

It was the Brighton defence that was the letdown. Brighton’s “Big-Three at the Back” let in two goals from set-pieces and their large, hulking size was unable to effectively mark the diminutive James Rodríguez (£7.8m).

Tariq Lamptey (£4.7m) came off early, ostensibly due to injury. 

Perhaps I am mistaken and very few footballing sides are able to contain the awesome firepower of this new-look Everton side.

Even with Allan (£5.4m) and André Gomes (£5.5m) out of the team, Everton’s back-up players rose to the occasion. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m) grabbed his customary goal from a Gylfi Sigurdsson (£6.9m) cross. Tom Davies (£5.4m) came into the side and did not look out of place. Even Alex Iwobi (£5.9m), coming on for the injured Richarlison (£7.9m), passed the eye test with an assist, dragging himself into the budget midfield FPL conversation. 

There are a few drawbacks. The Everton defence still conceded two goals and that will play on the minds of FPL managers who own FPL-favourite Lucas Digne (£6.1m). Digne also seems to have lost all set-piece duties to James Rodriguez and, when added to the lack of clean sheets, may bode ill for his fantasy attractiveness. Perhaps Everton’s central defensive pairing could prove more fruitful for FPL points, with Yerry Mina’s (£5.5m) headed goal adding to Michael Keane’s (£5.0m) headed goal against West Brom in Gameweek 2.

Lessons Learned

Brighton assets are still attractive for the manager looking for a budget differential. This manager would avoid their defence though. Lamptey’s appeal is slightly dented by his injuries (he does appear a little small) and the poor state of the Brighton defence on show v Everton (and Man United and Chelsea earlier). Solly March is listed as a midfielder and returned points for a second game in a row. Likewise, Brighton’s attack in Trossard and Maupay continued to reward their owners.   

Everton centre-backs are also on the FPL radar, as it is hard to overlook their aerial ability with regular supply from the likes of Digne, Sigurdsson, James Rodriguez and Seamus Coleman (£5.0m). Just don’t bank on too many clean sheets.

Up next for the Toffees are arch rivals Liverpool, perhaps the most intriguing Merseyside derby since the early 1980s.         

Leeds vs Man City 

While watching this game, news broke that City’s cross-town rivals Man United signed Edinson Cavani (£8.0m). I thought I’d heard wrong; surely he’d joined the wrong Manchester club?

Watching City fail (yet again) against an unfancied Lyon side in last year’s Champions League, I noticed that they really have no Plan B. Don’t get me wrong, their attackers Sergio Aguero (£10.4m) and Gabriel Jesus (£9.4m) are top class. But when City are chasing games, sometimes you need a more direct approach with a large target-man-type striker.

Now Man City have no strikers except some U-18 prospects, spending their oil wealth on countless central defenders in Ruben Dias (£5.5m), Nathan Aké (£5.5m), Aymeric Laporte (£6.0m), Eric Garcia (£4.9m), Nicolas Otamendi (£4.9m), John Stones (£5.0m), etc.

All of this would not matter in the world of FPL if Pep signed these defenders to give Fernandinho (£5.5m) a chance to play in his favoured midfield slot, which would in turn allow Kevin De Bruyne (£11.7m) to play in his favoured No 10 role.

Instead City played a 4-1-4-1 with Fernandinho on the bench. This allowed each of Phil Foden (£6.6m), Raheem Sterling (£11.5m), Riyad Mahrez (£8.5m) and Ferran Torres (£6.9m) to try their luck as the “false 9.” In other words, everyone expect KDB (who this manager quite frustratingly captained!!). Instead, City’s Belgian maestro was slightly withdrawn, shielding the City back four with FPL non-entity Rodrigo (£5.5m).

As for Leeds, they are the hardest formation to pin-down. Bielsa’s pre-match line-up looked nothing like the actual team that took the field. He then chopped and changed his formation throughout the game (a substitution right at the start of the second half being his speciality).

Here are some takeaways: Leeds cannot keep a clean sheet; Stuart Dallas (£4.5m) is more likely to get points than Luke Ayling (£4.5m) as Bielsa sometimes has him playing in midfield; Patrick Bamford (£5.8m) is a great target man and, although he came away pointless, he is the White’s main attacker (perhaps City should sign him). Is Helder Costa (£5.7m) a right-sided full-back, a left winger, a central midfielder or a striker? 

Lessons Learned

Surely KDB will come good. Surely Man City will get penalties and he’ll bury them. KDB is also City’s main set-piece taker. My only worry is that he has no striker to aim his crosses at! Perhaps City’s superstar defence can grab some goals, though City’s defence have conceded seven goals in three games and have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. 

The lessons for Leeds are more difficult to decipher. There have been plenty of goals but the FPL returns have been spread around. Costa and Mateusz Klich (£5.6m) are more central midfielders, Jack Harrison (£5.5m) did not feature against his parent club, Kalvin Phillips (£5.0m) is a defensive midfielder, Tyler Roberts (£4.9m) had his first start behind the striker and veteran talisman Pablo Hernández (£5.8m) is still injured.

Ian Poveda-Ocampo (£4.4m) doesn’t appear to be nailed on. An interesting option is £4.4m-priced Ezgjan Alioski, who is listed as a defender but played as an attacking winger against City and wears the No 10 jersey for Leeds. His starts though have been few and far between, and he was hooked by Bielsa at halftime. For anyone eyeing Leeds’ assets, perhaps Bamford remains the best option, with him much more nailed on than Rodrigo Moreno (£5.8m).


Leicester vs West Ham 

West Ham showed us all that last week’s demolition of Wolves was no fluke as they repeated that brilliant performance with another impressive victory against last season’s fifth-placed side. Leicester City came into the tie top of the table and fresh from their own impressive defeat of Man City in the previous Gameweek. All that was put to naught as the Hammers hammered Leicester, in another master show of tactical organisation par excellence. Leicester came into the game as one of the league’s best counter-attackers but it was West Ham who out-foxed the Foxes. 

West Ham’s 3-4-3 formation was solid throughout, and in Michail Antonio (£6.3m) West Ham have a striker perfectly suited for the role. Behind, or rather flanking, Antonio were the impressive and speedy duo of Jarrod Bowen (£6.3m) on the right and Pablo Fornals (£6.4m) on the left.

West Ham’s centre was marshalled admirably by Declan Rice (£4.9m) and Tomas Soucek (£4.9m). In defence, long time full-back Aaron Cresswell (£4.9m) has found his positional nirvana on the left side of a back three (although he and left wing-back Arthur Masuaku (£4.5m) can almost interchange positions).

Brendan Rodgers stuck to the same formation that worked so well against Man City, and though Rodgers tactically out-classed Pep Guardiola in that game, it was Rodgers’ turn to get out-classed.

The three-man defence (instead of the earlier 4-1-4-1) with Daniel Amartey (£4.0m) coming on as a third defender ultimately hurt Leicester this time. The more defensive formation forced players like defensive midfielder Nampalys Mendy (£4.5m) to take a more creative role to which he is not suited. The absence of Dennis Praet (£5.5m) and James Maddison (£7.0m) was a blow, but even then the West Ham midfield completely blunted Leicester’s supply line to Jamie Vardy (£10.1m) as Youri Tielemans (£6.4m), Harvey Barnes (£7.1m), James Justin (£4.7m), Timothy Castagne (£5.8m), Ayoze Pérez (£6.3m) all blanked (as did Vardy, who was a near spectator throughout). 

Lessons Learned

West Ham’s FPL potential was highlighted last week and they’ve only enhanced their reputation this week. However, West Ham’s fixtures are one of the toughest and so the guns stay in their holster rather than go blazing (for now).

Choosing which assets to target is also a challenge. Last week, all the plaudits went to Masuaku, Bowen and Soucek. This week the limelight fell on others: Cresswell, Fornals and Antonio. We should note, too, that West Ham’s bench contains some old-school FPL favourites including Andriy Yarmolenko (£5.8m), Robert Snodgrass (£5.8m), and Manuel Lanzini (£6.4m) amongst others… 

As for Leicester, their defence was suspect again: defending set-pieces being an especially weak point (this manager brought in Soucek for a -4 hit but was not rewarded).

Owners of Justin and Castagne will be banking on attacking rather than defensive returns going forward. Harvey Barnes’ game, it seems, is predicated on Leicester playing counter-attacking football rather than ball retention. Jamie Vardy, though he hardly touches the ball, still had a one-on-one with Lukasz Fabianski (£5.0m) and also had an FPL assist ruled out for off-side after VAR consultation. Added to his penalty-taking prowess, Vardy will always be an FPL threat regardless of his team’s overall performance. 

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Have Villa shown us the way to beat Jurgen Klopp’s all-conquering side?

Villa lined-up in a 4-2-3-1 using the likes of Trézéguet (£5.5m) as a workhorse up and down the right wing (think Dirk Kuyt-style). This was balanced on the left by Gameweek 4’s top FPL points-getter Jack Grealish (£7.1m), who does the same job as the aforementioned Trézéguet but with so much more style and panache. Add to that John McGinn (£5.5m) and Douglas Luiz (£5.0m) in the engine room and a stable defence made up of the impressive partnership of Tyrone Mings (£5.1m) and Ezri Konsa (£4.6m), and you have a team that moves backwards and forwards like a well-drilled machine. 

In truth, it was Liverpool’s high-line that hurt them so spectacularly in this game. Aston Villa used the same tactic Spurs used against Southampton: transitioning the ball from defence to attack, usually ending with Grealish flicking the ball in behind the Liverpool defence for new-signings Ollie Watkins (£5.9m) and/or Ross Barkley (£5.9m) to finish off in one-on-one situations with the opposing goalkeeper – Adrian (£4.5m) in this case, as regular Alisson (£6.0m) was injured. 

Lessons Learned

Despite an excellent start to the season for Villa we need to keep perspective. Yes, they smashed a lacklustre Liverpool playing a high-line for seven (yes, seven) goals, and they did similar against Fulham the week before. Astute FPL managers will note, however, that Villa only beat a much deeper defensive line in the shape of Sheffield United one-nil, and that Sheffield United side played most of the game with ten men. Surely opposing managers will learn from this and blunt Villa’s counter attack by allowing them to play with the ball. Only then can we fully judge Grealish and co.

14 Comments Post a Comment
  1. bombayblues
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Great article

    1. FPL Fetish
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thank mate! Means a lot...

  2. Mikespeed
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A good read...and informative.

    1. FPL Fetish
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'm glad you both enjoyed it and found it useful.

  3. Kabaranko
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    "and their large, hulking size was unable to effectively mark the diminutive James Rodríguez"
    well 1.8m isn't exactly diminutive, it's not like he is fraser or messi 🙂

    1. MikeBravo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      You forget that the Brighton defenders are all 2.10m 😉

      1. FPL Fetish
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Except Lampety! He's diminutive for sure!!

    2. FPL Fetish
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      The point I am trying to make is that the Brighton defense is suspect. But fair enough mate, perhaps I was being too smart with my words!!

  4. MikeBravo
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Carry on being smart with your words - we know what you meant! 😉

    1. FPL Fetish
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers mate... thank you for the kind words

  5. carlosdesa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Great article. I haven’t watched many games last week and this article helped summarize/clarify some of the assumptions I was going on about. Thanks.

    1. FPL Fetish
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      You’re most welcome. Glad I could be of assistance!!

  6. insertcomedyname
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Thanks

    1. FPL Fetish
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pleasure!