The FPL Eye Test – Gameweek 3

Introduction

I’ve never been good with numbers. While stats are heavily used for FPL success these days, I still prefer to make some of my team choices based on watching as much Premier League football as possible. Below are my thoughts from Gameweek 3, as we look ahead to Gameweek 4. If you want to follow me you can catch me on FPL_Fetish on Twitter as well.

Brighton vs Man Utd

It was another poor performance generally for Man Utd, but they escaped with the points. Solskjaer’s 4-2-3-1 formation remained unchanged with Nemanja Matic, Aaaron Wan-Bissaka and Mason Greenwood coming into the squad from last week’s horror show against Crystal Palace. The only thing this performance confirms is that Utd need to sign Jadon Sancho.

Anthony Martial was a spectator during the entire game. Greenwood had some neat touches but his prolific goal scoring from last season deserted him. Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes were not at their best. Marcus Rashford did score an eye catching goal, slaloming into the goal before finishing emphatically.

As for Brighton, they impressed again despite the loss. Special mention to their centre backs, assisted admirably by two forward oriented full backs – Tariq Lamptey and Solly March – both of whom registered returns. Neal Maupay was on penalties and duly delivered. Leandro Trossard impressed again even though he blanked after hitting the wood work several times.

The problem with Brighton is they dominated the game but still lost. If there is any weakness in this team, it is there central defense, who although large and organized, are susceptible to fast counter attacks by the opposition.

Lessons Learned

Rashford is perhaps the best Man United asset to own, but from an FPL perspective the jury is still out as Fernandes took the penalty and that doesn’t look like changing until perhaps he misses one.

Brighton assets are for the risk-taking FPL manager. Their next five fixtures are Everton (a), Crystal Palace (a), West Brom (h), Tottenham Hotspur (a) and Burnley (h). This places them nearly in the middle of Fantasy Football Scout’s “Season Ticker.” Lamptey in defense comes in at £4.6m, Trossard and March in midfield come in at £6.0m and £5.0m respectively. Maupay, Brighton’s nailed on penalty taking striker will take you back £6.5m.

Crystal Palace vs Everton

Everton, again, made no changes to their starting XI as an encouraging start to the season continues. Although labelled a 4-3-3, Everton play more of a 4-4-2 diamond formation. This allows their full backs to get forward and they duly delivered again. Dominic Calvert-Lewin knocking home from a Seamus Coleman cross. Ancelloti’s Everton look a lot like Ancelotti’s vintage AC Milan side: Calvert-Lewin as Inzaghi, Richarlison as Shevchenko, James as Kaka, Coleman and Digne like Cafu and Jankoluvski (ie full backs who power forward). What Yerry Mina and Michael Keane are not, however, is Maldini and Nesta as they gave up another goal (on a set piece this time).

Crystal Palace were their usual tight-knit organized self, and they had Everton pinned back for most of the second half. The penalty they conceded was harsh and it cost them the game. The usual suspects in Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend were at their usual high standard.

Lessons Learned

Everton defense are not likely to win managers any clean sheet points. Their full backs will get attacking returns, but it’s the deadly trio of Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison and James Rodriguez that will get the points on most match days. Likewise, it seems James Rodriguez has taken full control of corners and set pieces from Digne.

As for Palace assets, they should get a serious look when their fixtures ease in the near future.

West Brom vs Chelsea

All the pre-match media hype centered on the dropping of Kepa and his replacement in goal by Willy Caballero. For FPL fanatics though, the biggest taking point was the inclusion of Tammy Abram as the starting forward, with highly owned (and captained by this manager) Timo Werner playing on the left-hand side of Lampard’s uninspiring 4-2-3-1 formation.

More tactically aware observers would also have been dejected at the thought of two defensive midfielders in N’golo Kanté and Mateo Kovacic in front of four defenders against a team that hardly required it. For all that defensive precaution, Chelsea conceded three goals in the first half. It was only when Lampard took a more attacking approach with his substitutions did Chelsea claw their way back into the game.

For West Brom, the fixtures do ease after playing Leiceter, Everton and Chelsea. That sequence of fixtures was difficult and perhaps the label of whipping boys was harsh. Maybe their attack deserves a look in. Matheus Pereira in midfield is usually involved in most WBA goals.

Lessons Learned

After a summer of lavish spending, it was academy products Mason Mount, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Abraham who got the goals ironically. Will this mean Werner is benched? Doubtful. But is Werner the Chelsea number 9 or will he be a left winger? That is the great unknown and will depend on Chelsea’s formation going forward and the return of certain key players from injury. In the meantime, I doubt Frank Lampard himself knows what his strongest line-up is yet.

As for West Brom, five goals in your first three games is a respectable return for any promoted side. It’s the 11 goals conceded that’s the worry. I’d stick to their attacking assets.

Sheffield United vs Leeds United

The more I watch Leeds high press in a 4-1-4-1 the more impressed I get. It’s probably the most balanced formation in the game of football. That being said, Beilsa’s boys actually lined up in a more 3-5-2 when on the pitch. This meant that Luke Ayling (in my team) played to the right of a flat back three and this hampered any possibility of repeated forward runs. On the positive side, the more defensive latter formation led to a clean sheet (though Leeds were lucky not to concede). Are the days of conceding four against Liverpool and three against the mighty Fulham gone?

As for Sheffield United, I have watched two out of three of their games so far and they have always looked good. They just lack that potency in attack (as I mentioned in a previous Gameweek). The ploy of fielding Ayling in my defense worked and my 4.5 defender bagged a clean sheet plus bonus.

Lessons Learned

I’m still learning about Leeds and how they play (never watched a Championship game in my life). It seems, from the two to three games that I have watched them, that their attack is probably safer than their defense in terms of investment. Like Wolves, they were lucky not to concede against Sheffield United.

As for the Blades themselves, the opposite holds true. They do not have a natural finisher in their squad. Thus, one should invest in their defense and not their attack. £4.5m priced Oliver Burke who is listed as a midfielder in FPL looks a good shout.

West Ham vs Wolves

A very impressive performance by the Hammers, who, as I stated last week, were unlucky to lose to Arsenal in the previous Gameweek. How this team lost to Newcastle in Gameweek 1 is beyond me. David Moyes was not at the game due to contracting Covid, but they didn’t need their manager as they gave a magisterial performance against a Wolves side that is admittedly in a transition mode after a busy summer of changes.

I also stated last week that Jarrod Bowen was impressive and in Gameweek 2 he bagged a brace. Michail Antonio got no fantasy returns but was ever-present. Tomas Soucek who I worried about due to his central midfield position was imperious in the center of the park and his threats from set-pieces were confirmed again. In fact he headed the ball into the goal for West Ham’s third, but unfortunately it was counted as a Raul Jimenez own-goal after a deflection.

Arthur Masuaku, of all people, probably deserved the man of the match award; his running up and down the left flank won him two assists, a clean sheet and three bonus points for a total haul of 12. But in truth every man on the field was a star for West Ham on the night. There was something “David Moyes at Everton-esque” about the performance that should see the Hammers survive in the Premier League again.

Like I feared previously, Wolves continue to play their defensive 3-4-3. What hurt them was conceding an early goal. Once they were behind, it was difficult for them to attack due to their structure. It was only in the second half that Nuno Espirito Santo was able to re-jig his team, but by then it was too late. No shows for Daniel Podence, Fernando  Marcal and a debut for new signing Nélson Semedo meant that Adama Traoré was pushed forward into the front three, with limited creative effect. Wolves’ defense, presumably their strong point, was labored and languished.

Lessons Learned

The question now about the Hammers is this: Was this game a one-off fluke or are they the real deal? Likewise to consider is West Ham’s fixtures: they are placed second worst on the Fantasy Football Scout Season Ticker with Leicester (a), Tottenham Hotspur (a), Manchester City (h) and Liverpool (a) to come. That said, Massuka is interesting at £4.5m, Soucek is £5m and Bowen is at a riskier £6.5m but he plays off Antonio almost as a striker. Antonio himself is at £6.4m. Happy shopping!

For Wolves assets, it’s really a throw of the dice. You either go for their defense and hope for a clean sheet or invest in their attack and the ever dependable Raul Jiménez. The danger arrives when Wolves concede early – they are not set up for a comeback when going a goal down, and in those situations you could lose out on defensive and offensive FPL points.