FPL Transfer Traps Gameweek 6

Looking at the wealth of articles and content already available, it made sense to focus on red herrings in FPL that are likely to catch novices, or even experienced managers, off-guard.

This article tries to shortlist FPL assets whose short-term performances or supposed “nailed-ness” in their teams, are likely to pursue managers into buying them (either as a punt or long-term option), but who might not be consistent enough to be worthy of consideration (or might not even start consistently) as of that Gameweek.

Some players will get off this list when their underlying stats start reflecting their ability to deliver consistent FPL points.

Goalkeepers

1. Nick Pope (Price: £5.5m, Form: 3.8, GW5 score: 11)

The sovereign of the FPL state last season, finally hauled in the drab 0-0 game against West Brom in Gameweek 5. Burnley’s lack of recruitment in the summer and the prolonged absence of Ben Mee (£4.9m) means that Pope is not a viable option at that price. He also faces Tottenham(A) and Chelsea(H), followed by a tricky visit to the Amex. Due to Emiliano Martinez (£4.8m) emerging as this season’s Nick Pope, Pope is definitely a must-avoid.

2. Adrián (Price: £4.5m, Form: 0.5, GW5 score: 2)

Klopp’s post-match views on Alisson Becker (£5.9m) were encouraging for managers invested in the Liverpool defence: “Alisson looks very good. We have to see; catching balls and stuff like this is all possible. But we cannot rush it and will not rush it.” This means that Adrian is not a long-term option even though Jack Butland (£4.5m) ended up moving to Crystal Palace. A hard-pass despite the tasty home fixture against Sheffield United up next.

3. Karl Darlow (Price: £5.0m, Form: 5.0, GW5 score: 8)

Immaculately priced at £5.0m by the FPL overlords, Darlow has been an FPL revelation. However, the not-so-imminent return of Martin Dubravka (£4.9m) who suffered an injury setback, the knock Darlow suffered against Manchester United and the upcoming fixtures – Wolves(A), Everton(H), Southampton(A) and Chelsea(A) – makes it an easy decision to not own him.

Defenders

1. Pascal Struijk (Price: £4.0m, Form: 0.7, GW5 score: 2)

Even though Marcelo Bielsa has said that he doesn’t know how serious the injury to Liam Cooper (£4.4m) was, Struijk might not be a nailed-on starter with Luke Ayling (£4.5m) being able to slot in at Centre Back, having done so last season in the Championship. His price point might be appealing, but a lack of clean sheets for Leeds (one in five games) and uncertainty regarding his spot in the squad should be dissuading enough.

Although Bielsa has subsequently confirmed that Struijk will replace the stricken Kalvin Phillips (£5.0m) at the base of midfield. Phillips is expected to be out until December.

2. Fabián Balbuena (Price: £4.4m, Form: 6.3, GW5 score: 7)

With Issa Diop (£4.5m) having recovered from COVID-19, Balbuena is by no means a certain starter. Even though he has had returns in consecutive games, West Ham still have Man City(H) and Liverpool(A) before their fixtures turn, so it would be wise to see who starts in those games before making a move. Arthur Masuaku at £4.5m is an easy alternative to Balbuena if one wants to invest in the West Ham defence.

3. Joel Matip (Price: £5.4m, Form: 0.2, GW5 score: 1)

Of course, he is no Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m)! Even so, a history of niggling injuries and attacking potency limited to corners or indirect free-kicks into the opposition box, means that there are a number of defenders in that price bracket that should be ahead of Matip in the queue. He is a nailed-on starter as long as he is fit, but defensive frailties at Liverpool due to the absence of Van Dijk (long-term) and Alisson (short-term) means that there are better options like Ben Chilwell (£5.7m), Ruben Dias (£5.5m), Sergio Reguilón (£5.5m) and Nelson Semedo (£5.5m) etc., in that price bracket.

4. Max Kilman (Price: £4.1m, Form: 5.2, GW5 score: 12)

Wolves’ captain Conor Coady (£5.0m) was effusive while praising the youngster, and at £4.1, he has the potential to be the cheapest nailed-on defender. However, going by some of the Wolves’ fan forums, Roman Saiss (£5.2m) is expected to move back to LCB once Fernando Marçal (£4.9m)/Rayan Ait Nouri (£5.0m) start at LWB. Definitely should be on your watchlist, but would be wise to wait for another Gamweek or two before making the call. If you are playing your Wildcard for Gameweek 6, he is a definite buy in place of Tyrick Mitchell (£4.2m), who is expected to lose his place to Patrick van Aanholt (£5.4m) in the Crystal Palace line-up.

5. Erik Pieters (Price: £4.4m, Form: 1.0, GW5 score: 6)

Phil Bardsley (£4.5m) at right-back has been diagnosed with COVID-19 and is expected to be back for Gameweek 7. Unlike last season, Burnley have attacking options in the starting line-up (most notably Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m) is back) and so Pieters is unlikely to start beyond Gameweek 6. The other position he filled-in last season was at left-back and as long as Charlie Taylor (£4.5m) is fit, he will start ahead of Pieters.

Midfielders

1. Ross Barkley (Price: £5.9m, Form: 4.8, GW5 score: 11)

The annual Barkley hype train is up and running! Even though his underlying stats are pretty good (comparable to Jack Grealish‘s at £7.2), he has flattered to deceive several times over the years. For those of you familiar with Harry Potter, he is the Hinkypunk of FPL – lures managers off their paths at night, into treacherous bogs under the guise of a helpful, lamp-bearing differential. Out of his 10 seasons at a senior level, he has ended a season at higher price than his starting price only twice, which highlights his inability to maintain consistent form. His price is the lowest it has been since the 2013/14 season and if he continues in the same vein for the next 1-2 Gameweeks, he will be off this list for sure. A definite must-watch for now.

2. Ademola Lookman (Price: £5.0m, Form: 5.0, GW5 score: 10)

He is not new to the Premier League, having spent three seasons with Everton (2016/17 to 2018/19), while returning a meagre one goal and four assists in over 1,000 minutes. Although he has injected pace and life into a pretty insipid Fulham team, their form and the players around Lookman make it pretty hard to go for him. There’re ultra-differentials, and then there’re just strict NO-NOs, with Lookman belonging to the latter category.

3. Andros Townsend (Price: £6.1m, Form: 3.0, GW5 score: 2)

Townsend was one of the few players to return in each of the first three Gameweeks, which was an FPL mirage after all! His underlying stats show that he has overperformed massively with an xGI (expected goal involvement) of 1.1 against a GI (goal involvement) of three. And the fact that Crystal Palace are showing no interest in even trying to score for the past two Gameweeks makes it an easy decision to pass up on him. The green pastures ahead of him (total fixture difficulty rating of 13 for the next six games) makes it an even more dangerous FPL trap. Buyers beware!

4. Trezeguet (Price: £5.4m, Form: 3.5, GW5 score: 3)

Post lockdown, he was on fire and ended last season as the best Aston Villa FPL asset. However, he has returned only one assist in four matches out of 24 goal involvements for his team. Even though he is the cheapest route into the Aston Villa attack, Bertrand Traore (£6.0m) is likely to replace him soon enough, having signed from Lyon for £17m. John McGinn (£5.5m) is a much better candidate in the same price bracket, with a pretty secure spot in the starting line-up.

5. Harvey Barnes (Price: £7.1m, Form: 4.8, GW5 score: 2)

Having returned 13 points against Burnley in Gameweek 2, he has underperformed in the first five Gameweeks, with a GI deficit of 0.4. With Leicester’s fixtures now taking a turn for the worse, there are better players to own in that price bracket such as Grealish (£7.2m) or even Phil Foden (£6.6m).

Forwards

1. Chris Wood (Price: £6.4m, Form: 3.0, GW5 score: 2)

He is Burnley’s talisman, takes penalties and is a menace in the box. However, Burnley are hardly creating any chances and he is underperforming as well, with a GI deficit of 1.0. Their fixtures are also pretty difficult (as discussed in the Nick Pope mention), so this is not at all a viable FPL option for the foreseeable future.

2. Alexandre Lacazette (Price: £8.5m, Form: 2.7, GW5 score: 1)

Another player who returned in each of the first three Gameweeks, and then was inexplicably left out of the starting line-up against a much-weakened Sheffield United team. His minutes whenever he starts are managed, which when coupled with the uncertainty of playing 60 minutes minimum and a pretty average looking Arsenal attack all point towards the exit door in FPL.

3. Patrick Bamford (Price: £5.8m, Form: 3.7, GW5 score: 2)

He was supposed to be the next Harry Kane (£10.8m), or so you thought when you looked at the hype surrounding his FPL exploits! In reality, he had been overperforming massively for the first three Gameweeks before blanking twice in succession. His xGI of 2.5 against his GI of four is now getting evened out, making it any easy decision to pass up.

4. Jamie Vardy (Price: £10.1m, Form: 5.2, GW5 score: 0)

An ill-timed injury to King Jamie forced many managers to switch to Harry Kane, which proved to be heavily rewarding. With Brendan Rodgers not committing to a return date and their fixtures turning for the worse, Sergio Agüero (£10.4) and Kane are the two most obvious lateral moves, with Timo Werner (£9.3m) not that far behind in the pecking order if you need to free up some cash.

5. Callum Robinson (Price: £5.5m, Form: 5.0, GW5 score: 1)

West Brom are a team to avoid for now, even though they scored a combined five goals against Everton and Chelsea with Robinson scoring twice and hauling against Chelsea. With Karlan Grant (£6.0m) moving to the Baggies and starting in his first game, Robinson’s place in the starting line-up has been surrendered by the looks of it. Last season’s out-of-position midfielder need not be on anyone’s radar at the moment.