Spot the Differential

Signing Cancelo a week before fixture swing can give FPL owners the edge

Fantasy Premier League managers could turn to Manchester City, Aston Villa or Crystal Palace to replace their Liverpool defenders for Gameweek 9.

Key members of the Reds’ back-line leave teams in their droves following the international break, so we have used this week’s Differential column to identify three exciting replacements; all of whom we think have the ability to deliver points at both ends of the pitch over the forthcoming weeks.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

João Cancelo

Cancelo stars for City as Sheff Utd's weak right-side bodes well for Chelsea
  • FPL ownership: 2.4%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW9-13 fixtures: tot | BUR | FUL | mun | WBA

João Cancelo (£5.4m) endured a tough first season in England, but is now starting to shine.

Since making his first Premier League start of the campaign in Gameweek 5, the Portugal international has amassed 24 FPL points, averaging six per game. In that time, he has registered two clean sheets and, despite only providing one assist, has created more chances than any defender in the entire division.

Having performed as a right full-back in his first appearance against Arsenal, he has since been deployed on the left in Benjamin Mendy’s (£5.9m) absence. It remains to be seen what will happen when the Frenchman returns from injury, but given Cancelo’s excellent form, it is hard to see an immediate route back into the team.

Since losing 5-2 to Leicester City back in September, Manchester City have conceded just four goals in nine games in all competitions, keeping five clean sheets. While many FPL managers will be looking at Gameweek 10 as the optimum time to invest in their backline, there could be value in going a week early, given Matt Doherty’s (£5.8m) positive coronavirus (COVID-19) test, and the fact most of Tottenham Hotspur’s chances tend to be conceded from their right-side.

Manchester City’s left-back problem has been a theme throughout Pep Guardiola’s time at the club, but the recent form of Cancelo has perhaps provided a solution. Consistency will now be the key to retaining his place, but if he can do that, it’s hard to envisage him being a differential too much longer. 

Matt Targett

  • FPL ownership: 2.4%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW9-13 fixtures: BHA | whu | NEW | wol | BUR

Matt Targett (£4.5m) has been a solid performer for Aston Villa since joining from Southampton in 2019, making the left-back spot his own.

A product of the Saints academy, he has played a key role in a defence that has already kept four clean sheets in seven attempts this season, and perhaps doesn’t get the praise his performances often deserve.

The Englishman is yet to miss a single minute of league action so far, and with Jack Grealish (£7.5m) regularly drifting infield in front of him, plenty of space often opens up for him to attack. He’s got a good delivery too, which he showed in flashes against Arsenal last time out, when he provided the cross that was turned in by Bukayo Saka (£5.3m) for Villa’s first goal in their 3-0 win.

Interestingly, the 25-year-old scored his first goal for the club when he netted an injury time winner against this weekend’s opponents, Brighton and Hove Albion, back in October 2019.

This time, with Tariq Lamptey (£4.8m) likely to surge forward for Albion and support their attack, Targett could have his hands full defensively on Saturday, but at the same time, gaps could appear if space is left in behind. That has certainly been the case so far this season, with the Seagulls giving up 17 of their 42 chances down their right-flank, compared to just nine from the left. 

Still priced at just £4.5m, Targett offers the cheapest route into Villa’s defence, and could be a solid set and forget option given their appealing fixtures.

Patrick van Aanholt

  • FPL ownership: 0.7%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW9-13 fixtures: bur | NEW | wba | TOT | whu

Having just returned from a long-term injury, Patrick van Aanholt (£5.4m) looked back to his best against Leeds United before the international break.

The Dutchman supplied an assist and carried plenty of goal threat, registering three shots in the box. Determined to get forward at every opportunity, his attacking runs created space for Eberechi Eze (£5.8m) and Wilfried Zaha (£7.4m) to thrive and gave them a cutting edge which has been missing without him in the team.

In his absence, Tyrick Mitchell (£4.1m) has impressed, but it was evident against Leeds just how much they’ve missed the 30-year-olds attacking nature, which leads us to think he’ll retain his place in the starting XI come Monday.

Despite often struggling in attack, Crystal Palace have had a bright start to the season. They sit eighth in the table, and looking at the run of games coming up, they have the potential to pick up points given the struggles of goal-shy Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and to a slightly lesser extent Newcastle United.

In Gameweek 8 there were signs of progress. The expectation now is that results should pick up, and with the possibility of goals and clean sheets, at least in the short term, van Aanholt could be a nice pick-up for those in search of a differential currently owned by just 0.7% of FPL managers. 

1,986 Comments Post a Comment
  1. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best option here. 0FT and 2.7m.

    Martinez
    James Lamptey TAA* --- Saiss Mitchell
    Bruno Son Grealish Barnes -- Burke
    DCL Kane Watkins

    A: TAA >> Chilwell (-4) and 4m itb for Son > KDB gw10
    B: TAA >> Cancelo (-4) + 4.6m itb for potentially Barnes > KDB gw10
    C: Mitchell >> Coufal (-4) + 2.3m itb for Son > KDB gw10

    1. Kuzser
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B as don’t like double Che defence and C is an annoying hit

  2. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Lads, Cancelo + Soucek as a first sub or 4.5 defender + Jota as a 5th midfilder (+ a headache)?

    1. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Jota

    2. Kingtekkerz
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Cancelo and Soucek

  3. sentz05
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any chance Werner could rise in price tonight?

    1. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Think so. Expecting lots of moves tonight. It’s been a bit unpredictable though. I’ve been waiting for Reed to drop for my last mid. Over -100 every evening and nothing!

    2. caldracula
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Touch and go, would check again later tonight

    3. Darnell Nurse
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      He's better be, want to sell him on WC on his buying price

  4. Oggle22
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    HELP!
    Martinez
    Kilman Konsa Chilwell Mitchell
    Rashford Son Ziyech Zaha
    Wilson Kane

    Steele Salah Brewster Branthwaite

    A) Salah to Bruno
    B) Salah and Kane to Bruno and Vardy -4
    C) Salah Kane and Brewster to Bruno Vardy and Watkins -8?
    D) summat else

    Cheers

  5. Weeb Kakashi
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    No fpl blackbox this week?

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Think I remember seeing that Mark's WiFi was gone so he couldn't join. At least that's what Az said, but noticed his PS5 turned up the same day which is awfully fortunate timing 😉

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mark's internet got killed.

      1. Pep bites Kun
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        There are alternatives as we all know such as Mobile broadband.
        Satellite (expensive, getting less so, but slow) or Dial-up 🙂 even. Internet has many access points. It's difficult to believe that someone in the media business hasn't spent a few hundred bucks on a secondary source of WIFI comms for a primary source of income. I'd chuck in a good sturdy home UPS also, just in case the mains go down 😉

  6. Starskyb
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    1) Is it worth upgrading Justin to Cancelo? Comparison tool suggests yes but not sure about the cash with Justin's run it...

    2) Are Philips or Williams at Liverpool viable options as 5th Defender instead of Lewis?

  7. InvertedWinger
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who's the best set and forget GK on WC? Or is a 4.5 rotation pair looking good + covid-safe?

    1. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Obviously the rotation pair is covid-safe unless you get 2 keepers from the same team. Soton look like a decent option with McCathy and Forster. But whichever team you pick, you would have only one spot for mid/fwd.

    2. caldracula
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Martinez

    3. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Been very happy with Martinez ... If I was rotating I wouldn't have played him away to Arsenal, so I prefer to have just the one playing keeper and a 4.0m

  8. Kuzser
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Evening all! Will appreciate you help here: 1FT and 1m ITB. Happy to take a -4 too.

    Martinez
    Robbo - James- Saiss-
    Son - Bowen - Grealish - Ziyech
    DCL - Kane - Brewster

    Salah - Mitchell - Justin

    A) Salah > Bruno
    B) Salah + Saiss > Bruno + Cancelo (-4)
    C) Salah + Brewster > Bruno + Watkins (-4)
    D) Brewster Saiss -> Bamford Lewis (-4)
    E) anything else

  9. SharkyT
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Quick 1:

    Already done 1FT & 0ITB

    A) Salah > KdB (-4)
    B) Salah > Mane (-4)
    C) Hold. Play 1 of Brewster/Mitchell

    1. Kuzser
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Same question. Would do C if we knew for sure they would play

    2. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      KdB

    4. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

  10. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Son to Ziyech is not worth a hit is it...

    1. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I don't think so.

      Having said that, I have both of them this week.

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I’m already on a -4 so not sure if I should go for it or not...

        1. caldracula
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Nope

  11. Drop Dead Tsimikas
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Salah + Dunne >>> Bruno + Cancelo for a -8? Would give me a team of:

    Martinez (Mendy)
    Robbo - Cancelo - Chilwell - Saiss (Mitchell)
    Bruno - Jota - J-Rod - Zaha (Barnes)
    Kane - Jimi (Brewster)

  12. middyjim
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wildcard Active - appreciate any feedback.
    Martinez
    James, Cancelo, KWP
    KDB, Ziyech, Grealish, Jota
    DCL, Werner, Kane
    Fabri, Soucek, Dias, Phillips

  13. George James
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best option

    A) Bowen

    B) Coufal

    C) Lamptey

    D) Grealish (-4)

    1. CONNERS
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      D will pay off in the long term. B or C if for just the one GW.

  14. Bobby_Baggio
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    In a draft league would you get rid of Azpi for either

    A) PVA
    B) Lampety
    C) Targett

    1. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      PVA's fixtures look good in the short run

    2. JBG
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. The Red Devil
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

    4. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      PVA - Fixtures, attacking threat and less than 1% owned

  15. JBG
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    This is my team now:

    Mccarthy-Steer
    Maguire-Zouma-Coady-Coufal-Mitchell
    Fernandes-Rashford-Son-Grealish-Bissouma
    Jimenez-DCL-Adams

    I took a -4 to bring in Maguire and Rashford for TAA and Salah. Was going to WC GW10, but wondering if I should just WC now, to save that -4 hit. Think it is my 3rd or 4th hit this season already.

  16. Jimmy Boy
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    McCarthy
    Chilwell* - Dias - Telles
    Mane - Grealish - Bruno (c) - Ziyech
    Werner - DCL* - Bamford

    Forster - Balbuena - Riedewald - 3.9m*

    This is my current wildcard team. Feels a bit template with all the midfield/forwards highly owned players now. Would switching DCL for the now equally priced Richarlison be a good differential pick?
    Also a bit concerned about the bench, which is in it's current state due to me upgrading James to Chilwell. Is he really worth the extra million or would it be better to have James and get more nailed options on the bench?
    Any input appreciated.

    1. JBG
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maybe downgrade Mane to Kdb and upgrade your bench?

    2. Dosh
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would go for Richarlison.

    3. chrismoo75
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      would swap telles for a 4.5 (coufal etc) and upgrade elsewhere myself

      And would put a city player in for Mane for next 3 GW

  17. CONNERS
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Can't wait for this GW to get started already. That -8 is hanging over me like a bad smell.

  18. The Ilfordian
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any thoughts on this:

    A) Walker, Barkley, Watkins
    B) Targett, Ward-Prowse, DCL

  19. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Do 3 defenders start from the following-
    Robertson
    Taylor(injury doubt)
    Zouma
    Kilman (father died)
    Dunne

    Or do a transfer for a hit?

    1. Dosh
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    2. JBG
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

  20. Dosh
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bench one:
    a. Targett
    b. Podence

  21. Freund88
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best 4.5 defender for next 3 weeks?

    Coufal?
    West Brom??

  22. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What do you make of this -4?
    Salah and Son to KDB and Ziyech

  23. jay01
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Bruno essential?

    1. jay01
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I seem happier with my team / plan without.. would need to hide behind a sofa tomorrow though

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nope, he is not. A good pick for 8-10 GWs though.

    3. Pacer.
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      United won 26 pens in the previous two seasons. No sign that pattern has changed because same manager, same players, same tactics. Bruno is solid number 1 and almost always going to be on field when they win one. He has a 93% conversion rate (33/36). So you're looking at very likely 8-10 goals from penalties alone. He's their most creative player, he has a ridiculous goal involvement (66%), is on other set pieces and will inevitably chip in with goals from open play. It's likely that he'll score 15 goals and get 15 assists. It is not a very improbable outcome that he could push closer 20 in both departments, given his insusceptibility their indifferent current form.

      He's not essential, but if you don't own him you are making life bizarrely difficult for yourself

  24. Drop Dead Tsimikas
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    At 4M ranking, a (-20) is somehow a lot easier to take 😀 May as well call it a throwaway season at this point. Going 4-5-1.

    Martinez
    Robbo - Chilwell - Saiss - Cancelo
    KdB - Bruno - Jota - Grealish - Zaha
    Kane

    Mendy, Mitchell, Brewster, Delap

    1. fc_skrald
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      good luck, the team looks good

  25. El Lobito 10
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Always listen to your own gut. I said on here a month ago that Cancelo was going to be a great option. A few people laughed at me and were pretty patronizing. Now people looking at how to get him in. Luckily, I ignored the comments and got him anyway. Listen to your gut!

  26. ElliotJHP
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A) Play Foden

    B) Foden to Jota/James R/Ziyech for a -4, Son to KDB GW10

    C) Foden to Bruno -4, cross the KDB bridge when we come to it

  27. Viper
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is the only thing we know for certain regarding Salah's situation the fact that he won't play this weekend? And after that we don't know?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yep. Protocol are mystery at the moment, according to some he may be available for Brighton game whereas some say chances are slim.

  28. AnfieldLad
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    McCarthy
    Chilwell Cancelo Kilman (Shaw* Ferg*)
    Bruno(c) Son Grealish Soucek
    Kane DCL Werner
    (-4) 2.7ITB

    Taken a hit and have no Kilman backup.

    G2G or WC?

    If I don’t hit WC this week it’s likely I will next week

  29. jay01
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Does anyone have their eye on Aguero? Normally a 20 goal a season striker.. if he gets gametime with those fixtures surely he will explode?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wouldn't mind picking him but I feel double defense and one attacking player will be more efficient.

  30. Bennyboy1907
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Current team : 2FT’s 1.1ITB

    Martinez (Forster)
    Robbo Chillwell Lamptey (Saiss, Mitchell)
    Salah Son Zaha Grealish (Bisouma)
    Kane DCL Bamford

    How’s the plan:
    GW9:Son >>> Bruno
    Saiss >>> Creswell
    Salah >>> KDB (-4)
    GW10: Kane >>> Vardy

    Thoughts please?