Scout Picks

Gameweek 15 Scout Picks based on Liverpool and Man City’s appealing fixtures

Liverpool, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Leeds form the spine of the Scout Picks for Gameweek 15.

As ever, we have chosen this line-up with the help of Scout Squad submissions made by DavidNealeTom and Andy.

We have used the 3-4-3 formation once again, coming in at £80.7m, well inside our budget of £83.0m.

Goalkeeper

No team has a better expected goals conceded (xGC) score than Aston Villa over the last four matches, which bodes well for Emiliano Martínez (£4.9m) ahead of a home match against Crystal Palace.

Defenders

Should Liverpool defenders be back on FPL radars and is Jota a trustworthy asset?

Owners of Andrew Robertson (£7.3m) will fancy returns at both ends of the pitch against West Bromwich Albion in Gameweek 15. Liverpool’s defence has conceded just four league goals since the start of November while the Baggies mustered an expected goals (xG) score of just 0.05 against Aston Villa.

Benjamin Mendy (£5.9m) earns a place in the Scout Picks having started mostly in appealing home fixtures for Manchester City this season. After a rest in the EFL Cup, we expect him to start against Newcastle in Gameweek 15. The Citizens have an impressive defensive record recently (conceding just once since Gameweek 10), while Mendy could take advantage of Newcastle’s weak right flank. They have deployed DeAndre Yedlin, Emil Krafth, Javier Manquillo and even Jacob Murphy this season in what is quickly becoming a problem position for Steve Bruce.

Vladimir Coufal (£4.6m) offers excellent value at West Ham, having created the second-highest number of chances among all defenders over the last four matches.

Midfielders

Sam Allardyce has not had enough time to mark his stamp on West Bromwich Albion, which is why we have no qualms trusting Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) for Gameweek 15. The Baggies still have one of the worst defences this season, behind only Leeds for goals conceded, while their xGC score is the highest in the division after 14 Gameweeks. Knowing that Salah only needed half-an-hour to rack up 16 points at Crystal Palace and has registered an attacking return in all but one home match this season, he is an obvious inclusion.

Kevin De Bruyne (£11.8m) is sure to explode points very soon, and we expect that to come against Newcastle. The Magpies have conceded at least five times in three of their last five league visits to Manchester City and are not in the best of shape after their midweek EFL Cup exit. Over the last four Gameweeks, De Bruyne is top among all midfielders for shots on goal and behind only one other for key passes.

Jack Grealish (£7.8m) continues to offer an excellent route into Aston Villa’s attack, the England international still their most important asset. Ahead of hosting Crystal Palace, his recent move back into the middle of has helped get the best out of him. Over the last two Gameweeks, Grealish leads the way among midfielders for key passes and penalty area touches; also ranking joint-fourth for shots.

Raphinha (£5.4m) could be well on the way to providing a route into Leeds’ attack via the midfield – and it helps the Scout Picks that he costs less than £6.0m. Over the last four matches, he ranks inside the Premier League’s top seven for chances created while only seven players 

Forwards

Calvert-Lewin offsets longest goalless streak with another Fantasy assist

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) has blanked in just two matches this season and, even though his supply lines have suffered in the absence of recognised full-backs and James Rodríguez, he faces a Sheffield United side that has given up more headed chances than any other across all matches this season.

Patrick Bamford (£6.4m) has recently improved his output in home matches, unfortunate to blank against Arsenal, assisting against West Ham and scoring in the 5-2 win over Newcastle. We fancy him to find the net against Burnley considering only three Premier League players have more shots on target than Bamford in the last four matches.

Chris Wood (£6.2m) gets into the Scout Picks on account of his upcoming fixture: Leeds United. Not only have they conceded the most goals of any team over the last four Gameweeks, but they also rank worst for giving up headed chances and shots set pieces.

Substitutes

  • Alex McCarthy (£4.6m)
  • Michael Keane (£5.1m)
  • Stuart Dallas (£4.7m)
  • Bertrand Traoré (£5.9m)

THE CAPTAIN

Who are the best captain options for FPL Gameweek 36+?

We choose the Scout Picks captain using a four-way vote between our Scout Squad pundits.

Because the use of Fantasy Football Scout data is used so heavily in this process, the skipper we choose each Gameweek is known only to those with a valid Fantasy Football Scout subscription and revealed to the public only when the deadline has passed.

Here’s how we voted for Gameweek 15:

THE COMMUNITY CHAMPION

Each week, one of the Fantasy Football Scout community takes on the Scout Picks by pitting their chosen XI against ours.

The Community Member who beats our team by the largest margin will win a £100 Amazon Voucher and a place in our Moderators and Contributors League for the following season.

The Scout Picks were victorious over ONEDENNISBERGKAMP in Gameweek 14, winning by a 98-88 score-line, extending our lead for the season to 8-6.

Rupert the Horse takes us on for Gameweek 15 going with a 3-4-3 line-up of Martínez; Robertson, Stones, Dallas; Salah (c), De Bruyne (vc), Grealish, Klich; Firmino, Calvert-Lewin, Bamford.

AA33 is the current leader, defeating the Scout Picks by a 53-point margin in Gameweek 2.

676 Comments Post a Comment
  1. OLB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    First to three :
    El Ghazi or Raphina ?

    1. timawflowers
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      el

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Raphina - El Ghazi will be battling with Traore for one position once Barkley is back

    3. djman102
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      If you're asking short-term, El Ghazi.

      Long-term, Raphinha

    4. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Raph for me

      1. OLB
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Raph wins - thanks all - have a good one.

    5. Begbie.
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Raph

    6. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Raphinha

    7. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Both suck.

      Merry Christmas!

      1. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        As do a Polo and a Humbug.

  2. timawflowers
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    will sterling over kdb move backfire?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Probably

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Yes

      1. Diddi89
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        sterling will score upcoming GWs, might receive mors points in next 5 Than kdb

    3. STEP rOVERS
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Ticking along very nicely and lovely differential. The haul is around the corner one can hope

  3. Ayew Holding Mee Cork
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    DO you think this is enough to "survive" GW18?

    Martinez
    Stones Cancelo
    Son KDB
    DCL
    (Burke/Mitchell who probably won't start)

    If MUN vs BUR is rescheduled I will have Bruno and Taylor as well.

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      If that game is rescheduled yes. Else no

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Probably unless a non spurs or City player brought in with FH explodes

  4. Tinmen
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who to ditch first guys?

    Reece James
    Lamptey

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Lamptey

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Both! Flip a coin

    3. OLB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Lamptey

    4. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Lamptinho or both

  5. Alisson WondHaaland
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Best DGW Chilwell replacement?
    Already have Robbo, Coufal, Taylor

    A) Lindelof
    B) Alioski/ Dallas
    D) Justin/ Castagne
    E) Zouma
    F) KWP/ Bednarek
    G) Balbuena
    H) Matip

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Go cheap with G

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Dallas

    3. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Chilwell will be more than available when DGW comes along....

    4. Saka_me_sideways
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Is he out for the DGW?
      Thought he was only a doubt for the next couple... if so save the transfer

      1. Alisson WondHaaland
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Including the blank he'll be out for 4 weeks in total minimum. Whether he'll even be back for the double is a doubt. Why wait and lose all the value from him?

        1. Saka_me_sideways
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          I must of missed something, where has 4 gw’s out come from?
          Lampard has only said he’s a doubt for the next 2, like James.
          Either way I’d rather get as much information as possible before making a move. Adapting my strategy it needed.
          Bar the AVL match, his fixtures weren’t great till the DGW anyway so happy to bench.

    5. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Dallas or G

    6. Thescaff
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

  6. n-doggg
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who gets more points, this week only as WC next week

    A. DCL and Robertson (-4)
    B. Firmino and targett

    1. Lucky Z
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B looks fine

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

  7. Lucky Z
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Chilwell => Dias for FT or save and play:

    Reguilon • Dallas • Targett

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Depends on 18/19 strso

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Strategy*

        1. Lucky Z
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          TC in GW19 and no FH in 18

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Transfer waiting to happen then. May as well do it this week and take advantage of the Newcastle fixture

  8. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Prediction for KDB and Salah points?

    1. n-doggg
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      1 and 32

    2. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      32 and 2

    3. Jindaljain
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      This is more confusing

    4. Alisson WondHaaland
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      32 and 64

    5. Jindaljain
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      10-12

    6. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      8
      12

  9. Atwood
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Is there a single 4.3 and under defender worth owning? Need a Salah enabler.

    1. Begbie.
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Lewis at Newcastle your best bet.

      1. Atwood
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Ah, interesting. Annoyingly it seems he didn’t play last week though.

    2. Lucky Z
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I got Lewis in just for BGW as a Mitchell replacement

      1. @persecuted_by_mods
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Congrats

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I’m right to start Zaha over Soucek, right? Thought it was a no-brainier, but those Villa defensive stats have got me thinking

      1. n-doggg
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Zaha

    4. Matteera
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      2 FTs before wc next week..

      Lamptey / James to ...

      Thinking Matip and Stones (can afford up to Dias)

      Mendy / coufal could be more fun though!

      Thoughts? Thanks!

    5. dshv
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Happy holidays fellas

    6. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Balbuena nailed? Need a defender under £4.6m to enable Robertson. Already have Coufal.

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        He is

        1. Big Ronnie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Cheers thought so. Double West Ham def for the DGW it is then!

      2. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Yes

      3. n-doggg
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Good bet

      4. Utopsis
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Taylor?

    7. wildnothing
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Martinez Macey
      Cancelo Chilwell Lamptey Taylor Alioski
      Salah KDB Fernandes Mahrez Grealish
      Bamford Welbeck Adams

      Chilwell and Lamptey to who?

    8. The Review : GW 14
      BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      The Review: GW 14

      Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look at the upcoming blank and double gameweeks at length:

      (Data taken from FFScout with consent)

      Before I start, I'd like to make a small request. I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

      http://instagram.com/bigmanbakar

      Q: What is the best chip strategy for FPL managers who have already used their first wildcard?

      In this section, I take a look at the different strategies available to FPL managers for the gameweeks coming up and share my thoughts on what might be the optimum strategy. A few terms to note: DGW - Double GW, BGW - Blank GW, WC - Wildcard, TC - Triple Captain, FH - Free Hit, BB - Bench Boost

      Before I begin, I would like to make a small disclaimer. All this discussion is purely team specific, remember there is no hard and fast rule for success in chip strategy! I can only advise on a macro level basis hence if you feel as if any other strategy suits your team better, you should opt for that. Remember there is always more than one way to skin a cat!

      Looking at the schedule, the BGW will take place during GW18 and the DGW in the following gameweek, GW19. No team which plays in GW 18 has a double in GW 19 which makes this period tricky to maneuver. There will then be a DGW in GW26 and a BGW in GW29. There’s also the possibility of a few small double gameweeks here and there but we don’t have any conclusive evidence of that so it’s better to focus on what lies in front of us. There are a few games like Burnley v United and Villa v Newcastle awaiting to be rescheduled but for now, we don’t know when they will be scheduled.

      Like myself, a significant majority of FPL managers have used their WC already which poses the question on how to stay on par with those who still have their WC chip intact. The strategy I might follow for my own team is perhaps using the TC in GW19, WC in GW25 and BB in GW26. I like the idea that this allows me the opportunity to triple captain Salah in GW 19 for MUN and BUR at home. As someone who religiously follows numbers, one thing I’ve noticed about Salah over the years is that he is an absolute beast at home so this is an opportunity I think which shouldn’t be let go. An important thing to note is that Liverpool have a week’s rest before GW 19 too, which puts to bed any talk of rotation hence Salah should be raring to go for 180 minutes in this spell. I am aware that his record against Man United and Burnley isn’t great, but how many times will you get an opportunity to triple captain a fully rested Salah for two home games? I think that’s better than saving the chip for later and captaining a non-reliable FPL asset. However, one of the downsides of playing BB in GW 26 is that with the Champions League going on, rotation will be likely and hence fielding a high number of DGW’ers will become harder.

      What I like about that strategy though is that it seems achievable without exponential surgery to your team. As of now I would assume most FPL managers are likely to own the likes of Bamford, De Bruyne, Heung Min Son, Salah, Fernandes, Grealish, Kane and Calvert-Lewin heading into the festive period. Six out of these eight assets are set to feature in the BGW, and therefore don't require much movement while the likes of De Bruyne, Son and Kane even have a good fixture in the DGW as well when looked in isolation so could be held throughout this run. What is key here is that the Man City defenders, De Bruyne and Spurs assets have good fixtures before the double, during the double (even as single GWers) and in the blank GW ((NEW eve che BHA CRY wba SHU) and (wol FUL LEE avl shu LIV bha) respectively). which makes it easier for FPL managers to navigate their way through this period.

      Furthermore, this strategy would allow FPL managers to use the BB right after the WC, which is a combination which has served me really well over the past few seasons. 140+ points on a BB seems achievable if you nail the WC, there are big gains to be made if you get it right.

      It’s important to realize that some compromises will have to be made in terms of hits by FPL managers who have already used their wildcard – whether they choose to do that right now and Free Hit in GW29 or do that later in preparation for GW 29 is entirely their choice. Which begs the question, is it better to FH in GW 18 or 29?

      The teams set to feature in GW29 are still yet to be confirmed, but it is certain that the number of teams will be less than the number of teams featuring in GW18. The logic for free hitting in GW29 instead of GW18 is more or less the same for managers with or without the WC. Here I mention the pros of FH’ing in GW 29:

      1) In GW18 there are only a few standout fixtures which include the likes of Man City and Spurs, of which assets we already own, and since the aim is not to play a squad catering to GW18 we can overlook playing a full team and only look to manage with the players we already own of the teams mentioned above. There are no predictable games in GW 18 outside of Man City v Brighton anyway, so is the FH really going to bring value addition to the team? Players that could hurt you are the likes of James Rodriguez, Richarlison, Aguero, Sterling, Son/Kane (depending on whichever you don’t pick) and perhaps a Spurs defender – the opportunity cost of going without these players has to be taken into account. Is it as big?

      2) Since we'll be looking to WC in GW25, a thought will be looming over our heads to incorporate the fixtures from GW29 which is a BGW which may cause us to deviate from playing naturally as the players featuring in GW29 are likely to be from the lesser sides. This in turn might not only compromise the potential of points to be gained during GWs 26-29 but cause the manager to fall prey to tunnel vision - therefore in an ideal world managers should look to WC in GW25 and then FH in GW29. We have seen countless times in the past that buying players from the lesser teams just for the blank GWs often turns out to be counterproductive.

      The cons of FH’ing in GW 29 are given below:

      1) It is possible that we might have some teams who double in GW 26 and don’t blank in GW 29 and hence that would make these GWs easier to tackle even without a FH.

      2) It is important to value what we have right now. There seems to be a lot of gain from FH’ing either in 18 or even in GW 19. There should be gains in GW 29 as well, but for now to quantify that seems uncertain.

      Q: What is the best chip strategy for FPL managers who have their first wildcard available?

      First things first, it is important to note that the deadline to use the WC is before the GW16 deadline i.e. 28th December 2020 by 6:30pm, GMT, otherwise it will expire!

      As I iterated to earlier, I think the BB is used best in combination with the WC. For FPL managers WC’ing in GW16, BB’ing in GW19 is probably the optimum strategy as it helps you to plan the WC around the BB. I’m envious of FPL managers who can make this play, as they can navigate their way around this period with minimal hits and can leave their triple captaincy to use for later, perhaps in GW 26. The downside to this strategy is that you are likely to be stuck with extra funds until you use your second wildcard. Soucek as a fifth midfielder isn’t as expensive though, so him and a few cheap defenders (Dallas/Balbuena/Johnstone for example) might make this a workable strategy.

      This begs the question, which players to invest in on GW 16 WC if BB’ing in GW 19? Double West Ham defence is something I’d consider in this case as they have the best fixtures of all mid-priced defenders in GW 19. I would also triple up on Liverpool as their fixtures are great, and pick at least one Man City defender. The likes of Raphinha, Bamford and Adams would also form part of my team.

      Q: Jamie Vardy and Dominic Calvert Lewin – keep or sell with the blanks/doubles coming up?

      Calvert-Lewin, owned by more than 60% of FPL managers, features only once during the DGW which raises concerns on whether to move on from him to an option which does feature twice in the DGW. For me, answering this question is form dependent. However, I’d be hesitant to sell Calvert-Lewin given that despite a lack of attacking fluidity we have witnessed from Everton of late, he has managed the most big chances of all players in the league for the past four GWs. avl LEI NEW lee is his run around the double which is favorable, so I’m not sure sacrificing him in the DGW would be a great idea. FPL managers who bought him early in the season will lose significant team value too should they choose to sell.

      Looking at Jamie Vardy, his fixtures (MUN cry new - SOU eve LEE) either side of the DGW seem favorable. Stats are on Vardy’s side - Vardy is top for xG among forwards over the last four GWs. Therefore, for me Vardy is a hold, however if you do not own him I would probably not recommend buying because I think Martial for around a couple of million less provides a better, cheaper option (more on Martial later on in the article). United’s fixtures during the double read liv,ful and SHU,ars,SOU after that which is a really favorable run in so Martial could be a good, long term buy. I fancy United to score once even against Liverpool, and I expect them to get a similar number of big chances that Spurs managed to get at Anfield but weren’t as clinical.

      Q: Who are the Liverpool assets to own heading into their run in?

      Liverpool have now kept clean sheets in three of the last six GWs compared to just the one clean sheet in the first eight GWs. I think the value for me lies in their defence, which is why it is time to look into the Trent v Robertson comparison again:

      Trent vs Robertson (over the season)

      Mins per touch inside the final third: 2.8 vs 2.5

      Mins per big chance: 962 vs 630

      Mins per big chance created: 320.7 vs 210

      Mins per chance created: 53.4 vs 48.5

      By looking at the underlying stats, we can see that Robertson excels Trent in every stat mentioned above so he would be my choice if I had to pick one of those. However, with favorable fixtures coming up (WBA new sou - MUN BUR) and given that Liverpool feature twice in the DGW, there is enough evidence to suggest that even a Liverpool defensive double up could be a great differential combo to shoot up the ranks. Firmino and Mane have been posting encouraging numbers in recent times but for me if I was on a WC anytime soon, I’d pick Salah and the defensive double up.

      Q: In this section I share my thoughts on the Leeds assets:

      Leeds GW 1-10 big chances conceded per game: 2.3

      Leeds GW 11-14 big chances conceded per game: 4.75

      Leeds chances created per game GW 1-10: 11.6

      Leeds chances created per game in the last four GWs: 12

      The numbers tell their own story. Leeds continue to show their exuberant form in attack and continue to remain the sort of side which you would expect to score against any team in the league. However, defence is where the real problems lie. As can be seen, they are conceding more than double the amount of big chances of late. They have a double gameweek coming up, but FPL managers need to be realistic in their expectations for clean sheets at the moment – which is why I don’t really rate the likes of Ayling and Dallas for now.

      Raphinha vs Harrison vs Rodrigo (Last 4 GWs)

      Mins per shots inside the box: 32.7 vs 94 vs 35.4

      Mins per big chance: 360 vs 282 vs 283

      Mins per big chance created: 360 vs 282 vs 141.5

      Mins per chance created: 30 vs 35.3 vs 40.4

      In isolation, Rodrigo’s stats standout compared to the likes of Harrison and Raphinha but given that he is a forward, I think the numbers aren’t great to justify selection as forward slots at the moment are precious. Bamford is obviously my go to pick for the Leeds forward slot. Given how attacking Leeds are, I think Raphinha at his price can represent great value, particularly when you take the fixtures into account (BUR wba tot - BHA SOU). Bamford + Raphinha in GW19 is the play for me.

      Q: Who is the best midfielder and forward for a one week wildcard punt?

      I’d pick El Ghazi as my go to midfield punt. Here’s why:

      El Ghazi (Last two GWs):

      Shots inside the box: 7 (Midfield rank: 1st)

      Big chances: 2 (Midfield Rank: 1st)

      Chances created: 5 (Midfield Rank: 5th)

      At only £5.7 million El Ghazi has been the standout player in the budget picks among midfielders averaging eight shots per game over the past two GWs. With penalty duties, direct free kicks and a favorable fixture against Crystal Palace at home in his locker, the odds are in his favor to deliver FPL points.

      For the forward position, I would opt for Anthony Martial of Man United:

      Martial (Last two GWs)

      Shots inside the box: 8 (Forward Rank: 2nd)

      Big chances: 4 (Forward Rank: 1st)

      Big chances created: 4 (Forward Rank: 1st)

      We know that Martial has always been a streaky player and now he seems to be back in form, having scored and assisted vs Everton in the cup game as well. By looking at the stats, it is evident that Martial is a legit FPL option once again and with Leicester coming up who are fourth worst for big chances conceded over the last six GWs, it is the perfect opportunity to take a punt on an inform Man United attacker.

      Q: Who are the best replacements for Tariq Lamptey, Reece James and Ben Chilwell?

      With both the Chelsea full-backs set to feature on the sidelines for at least a couple of GWs, it is time to look at their replacements. Same applies for Lamptey who is offering negligible value at the minute as he has been ruled out this week and has some tough fixtures coming up. I think Man City should be the go-to defence for those FPL managers looking to bin the Chelsea full backs given that they are ranked top for xG conceded and are second best for big chances conceded and shots inside the box conceded over the last six GWs. It’s no surprise that they have accumulated ten clean sheets in their previous 14 games.

      This raises the question as to which asset to invest in. In an ideal world, I think Dias and Cancelo offer the best route into the City defence. Both have been imperious with their performances and are firmly first choice right now. However, having scoured through the Man City forums, the significant majority of fans seem to think that Stones and Dias is the first choice partnership at the moment, expecting both to start at the weekend while Cancelo despite his consistent performances is predicted to be benched. Hence, if I was picking one this week, I would pick Stones over Cancelo but if you own Cancelo, I’d recommend keeping. Cancelo can play both on the right and left which weighs in his favour and should give him the opportunity to start most games in the festive period.

      West Ham defenders offer a good alternative as well, particularly for those managers who are not FH’ing in GW 19 considering the fixtures that they have in the double (BUR WBA). Let's take a deeper look into the defensive assets of West Ham since they started playing four defenders at the back:

      Coufal vs Cresswell (Last 3 GWs)

      Mins per touch in the final third: 4.6 vs 4.2

      Mins per big chance created: 270 vs 270

      Mins per chance created: 33.75 vs 90

      Mins per big chance: 270 vs 270

      Coufal is only only £4.6m but not only is he outperforming Cresswell in terms of chance creation, but he is second for chances created and big chances created amongst defenders over the past six GWs so he possesses a real attacking threat. Hence, Coufal provides better value than Cresswell.

      However, it is important to note that even though the fixtures are in the favor of the Hammers, they are among the worst three teams for big chances conceded over the last six GWs and their defensive stats have regressed alarmingly. I wouldn’t expect them to keep a clean sheet until GW19.

      Q: Who is the best candidate for captaincy this week?

      For me this week, Mohammed Salah stands out as the go-to captaincy option. We saw a glimpse of what Salah was able to produce in a matter of minutes and with Liverpool now facing a West Brom side who are worst for xG conceded and shots conceded inside the box over the season, it’s very hard to look past Salah who himself is top for shots inside the box for midfielders this season. Big Sam has taken over now and you’d expect some sort of resurgence, but it’s very difficult for that to happen overnight and hence it is no surprise that West Brom had the second worst xGc (expected goals conceded) of all teams last week. De Bruyne is the only other option who I would remotely consider, but for me Salah at home to West Brom is too enticing a fixture to let go.

      Q: Pick one – Son or Kane and why?

      In an ideal world, you’d like to have both given that Spurs play Fulham and Leeds in back to back GWs. It’s tricky if I had to pick one for these fixtures. In GW 16, when Spurs play Fulham, I reckon that is a game more suited to Harry Kane than Heung Min Son when the Spurs fixture is looked at in isolation. However, Salah plays Newcastle in GW 16 which in my opinion is the standout captaincy fixture hence going without Kane for this fixture might be manageable as the captaincy won’t come into play. Looking ahead to GW17, when Spurs play Leeds and Liverpool play Southampton, a Spurs asset stands out as the ideal captaincy candidate but the fixture is more suited to Heung Min Son in my opinion as Leeds tend to give up spaces to teams that can counter well. Son is the better option out of the two only due to the fact we have a better option for captaincy in GW16. Further, as you can see in the numbers below, Son despite having fewer shots inside the box is far more involved in Spurs’ big chances in recent times:

      Son vs Kane (Last four GWs)

      Mins per shot inside the box: 88.75 vs 45

      Mins per big chance: 177.5 vs 360

      Mins per big chance created: 177.5 vs 360

      If you are looking to follow my work, follow me at:

      Twitter: https://twitter.com/bigmanbakar

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      I await your feedback. Merry Christmas and happy holidays!

      1. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        was waiting for this - thanks

      2. Jack Burton
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Wow thanks

      3. Jindaljain
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Any shortcut to read this

        1. The Ejiptian King
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Yep, read quicker.

      4. Fudgy
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers

      5. Well you know, Triffic
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks as usual.

      6. wulfrunian
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers.Merry Christmas!

      7. Kindness
          3 years, 3 months ago

          You the man Big Man

        • French Gooner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Brilliant as usual

        • ted mcnure
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Thanks as always for this big man! Top analysis as ever, intelligent food for thought!
          Have a merry Christmas!

      8. Atwood
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Any Wilson owners thinking of selling?

        1. Well you know, Triffic
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Benching

        2. rokonto
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Was going to sell but his price is too good. Keeping, benching for now.

        3. Utopsis
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          I was going to sell but will be keeping now for BGW18. Bench this week

      9. JJeyy
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Greallish and Chilwell to Raphinha and TAA?

        Yes or too risky to get rid of Grealish?

        1. _Ninja_
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Decent move I think. Yes a risk Grealish could haul but prob worth it.

        2. Begbie.
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Keep Grealish.

          1. Begbie.
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Don't forget he's still got two DGW's to come so you'll want him back eventually and you could be losing a lot of value on him.

            1. Utopsis
              • 4 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              He could always just get El Ghazi instead

      10. _Ninja_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Who to bring in for Chilwell if FH18 and no money ITB? Matip? Stones?

        Martinez
        Coufal Taylor Dallas
        Salah Bruno KDB Son Grealish
        DCL Bamford

        Forster Chilwell James Brewster

        1. Begbie.
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Dias.

        2. Utopsis
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Cancelo

      11. Begbie.
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Reckon Pulisic will start v Arsenal?

        1. JJeyy
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Course

          1. Begbie.
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Hope so as a rare owner lol. Just worried Havertz might come back in.

        2. Magic Zico
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          I want to know this

        3. Atwood
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Probably. Good differential to have too.

      12. Voodoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Dier or Stones?

        1. Begbie.
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Stones this GW. Dier for the next 4 after.

          1. Voodoo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Yeah, you just never know though. I wouldn’t be surprised if Laporte played, however random that sounds.

            1. Voodoo
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              It’s the uncertainty of starts that puts me off with Stones. That only!

        2. Jindaljain
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Both

      13. Plagued by indecision
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Get coufal or Taylor for Lewis? Already have balbuena

        1. Begbie.
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Taylor imo but Coufal does have the better DGW fixtures. Prefer Taylor overall though.

      14. royals forever
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Bench 1 out of

        Keane
        Dallas
        Coufal

        1. Begbie.
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          So tough between Dallas and Coufal. Genuinely toss a coin stuff sorry.

      15. fplking14
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Are there any pressers tomorrow?

      16. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Which is better??
        Far prefer Raphina then Soucek.

        GW 15=Greenwood and Chillwell > Trent and Soucek free
        GW 16= KDB and Lamptey > Son and Robertson -4

        or.
        GW 15= Greenwood and Chilwell -> Raphina and Trent free
        GW 16= KDB and Mitchell -> Zouma and Son -4.

      17. rokonto
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Hi I have a bps question;
        If a player creates a big chance where the receiving player should score, the 1st player gets 3 points added to his bps score.
        If the receiving player actually scores, does the 1st player get the 9 bps for an assist, plus 3 for creating a big chance where the receiving player should score?

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Think they get both.

      18. FPL AXE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Why are so few people talking about vardy in for the double in gw19? Kane in for 16 &17 and then vardy in for 19?

        1. Sonaldo Nazario
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Shhh.

        2. In a Rush
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Indeed

        3. Begbie.
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          I considered it but Kane v a terrible Sheffield United is too risky to sell IMO.

      19. Jet5605
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Is Dias the best City defender for 5.7 or less?

        1. BeWater
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Yep.

        2. Winston.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Yes. Cancelo better though, but not playing all the games...

      20. Winston.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        For GW15 only...

        A. Matip (WBA)
        B. Dier (wol)

        Matip should start, right?

        1. BeWater
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Matip.

        2. Begbie.
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          A by far.

          1. In a Rush
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Matip

        3. Well you know, Triffic
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          A

        4. Voodoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          A

        5. Jindaljain
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          B

      21. In a Rush
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Evening all How does this look?
        4m Itb burning a hole 0ft

        Martinez
        Kwp Zouma Dallas Coufal
        Salah(c) Grealish Bowen Bruno
        Dcl(v) Kane

        Button Welbeck Lookman Taylor
        Cheers all

      22. JURGENAUT
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        How many points are you expecting KDB & Salah to score this week?

        Considering KDB to Salah (C) for a -4

        1. Well you know, Triffic
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Not worth it for a hit.

        2. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Transfer someone else for Salah