Spot the Differential

Everton reinforcements can help Richarlison exploit Wolves in wide areas

Finding a credible differential is a test at the best of times, but even more so this week, with just 12 teams currently in action.

However, despite a smaller pool of players to choose from, we’ve found two options at Arsenal who we think can offer real value, as well as examining an alternative route into Everton’s attack.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Richarlison

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £7.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: wol | avl | LEI | NEW | lee 

With James Rodríguez (£7.7m) and Lucas Digne (£6.0m) returning to action at the weekend, now might be a good time to re-evaluate Everton’s attacking assets.

In their absence, Carlo Ancelotti was forced to change his teams’ setup, opting for a more conservative approach. However, with key players back, I expect we’ll see them in a 4-3-3 again, the system which provided some good results in the early part of the season.

And while Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m) is the long-term play, team-mate Richarlison (£7.8m) might be worth a punt this week.

The Brazilian has been reliable on the road this season, producing attacking returns in each of his last four away matches, which has included goals against Leicester City and Crystal Palace. On his travels, he’s shooting more often, is more involved in the final third and is accumulating big chances at a faster rate too, all of which bodes well for his prospects at Molineux. 

The defensive data also tells us that Everton’s opponents, Wolves, tend to concede most of their chances from wider areas. In the last six matches, they’ve given up 17 from the left zone, 23 from the right and just eight from the centre. With Nélson Semedo (£5.4m) often looking vulnerable since his move, I think Richarlison will fancy his chances tomorrow night.

Everton were off the pace against West Ham United last time out, but will be given a lift by their returning players, and Richarlison could be an ideal gamble for those eyeing up a differential in their Free Hit squads.

Emile Smith Rowe

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m) has impressed in recent weeks, and quickly established himself as a key part of Mikel Arteta’s young team.

Since making his first Premier League start of the season against Chelsea on Boxing Day, the 20-year-old has supplied three assists and created six chances. For context, that latter total ranks joint-fifth amongst all midfielders over that period.

Such is his importance right now, he didn’t start Saturday’s FA Cup third round tie against Newcastle United, but still came off the bench to inspire a 2-0 win. After a goalless 90 minutes, he finally broke the deadlock in extra time with a good finish, which helped earn him the man of the match award. It wasn’t a pretty win for Arsenal, but it was another performance which emphasised just how important the club’s youngsters are.

What’s noticeable is how much quicker the Gunners move the ball with Smith Rowe in the number 10 role, and having that creative figure in central areas has really helped them click going forward. In fact, since Gameweek 15, no team can improve upon their 6.87 expected goals (xG).

Next up for Arsenal is Crystal Palace, who have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their eight away matches this season. It’s also worth noting that their total of 15 big chances conceded in the last four Gameweeks is more than any other side.

Heading into Blank Gameweek 18, it looks like Smith Rowe will be one of the first names on Arteta’s team sheet on Thursday, and could be a nice differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a budget midfielder.

Rob Holding

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Staying with Arsenal, another cheap differential worth considering is defender Rob Holding (£4.5m).

The 25-year-old has revived his career this season, becoming a regular for the Gunners. He has now started 13 of Arsenal’s 17 league games, including all of the last seven. He was even rewarded with the captain’s armband at Everton last month, highlighting his growing importance to the team.

Since returning to the starting XI against Tottenham Hotspur at the beginning of December, his impact is backed up by the numbers. 

During their last seven matches, Arsenal have afforded their opponents just 18 shots on target. Only Manchester City and Everton have given up fewer during that time, both of whom have played one game less. He carries a bit of goal threat too, as he ranks joint-sixth amongst all defenders for goal attempts, while he’s also posted team leading totals in most of the key defensive metrics.

His partnership alongside Pablo Mari (£4.4m) has helped deliver consecutive clean sheets against Brighton and Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion, but we may see him pair up with the returning Gabriel (£5.0m) when they take on Crystal Palace at home on Thursday. After that, the North London side will then face Newcastle United.

Holding has established himself as a key player for Arsenal this season, and with an ownership of just 4.8%, could be a useful differential. 

639 Comments Post a Comment
  1. GW 18 Fixture Switcheroo Confirmed
    Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    First officially called by the Athletic, Tottenham vs Fulham (previously unscheduled) is now scheduled for Wednesday 13th in Gameweek 18 as rumoured.

    Aston Villa vs Tottenham (GW 18) has been postponed.

    This means Villa will now blank in GW 18 and Fulham will not blank in 18 followed by a double in 19.

    Chelsea vs Fulham has been moved to 5:30pm Saturday, it's expected the GW 19 deadline will move with it to Saturday morning.

    https://theathletic.com/news/tottenham-fulham-aston-villa-premier-league/clzVNFF9smMr
    https://twitter.com/Matt_Law_DT/status/1348608991182659585
    https://twitter.com/SamiMokbel81_DM/status/1348609722908368896?s=20

    1. Pacer.
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Very long winded way of saying PLAY UP POMPEY!

      1. FPL.team
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Careful now. The buzzkills will come for you.

      2. Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Excellent 1st post

    2. Simon69
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Excellent 1st post

    3. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Very interesting, just saw the news on spurs v fulham

    4. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      SCENES

      1. George Sillett
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Not really.

    5. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Isnt the Athletic 90% bollocks as a source?

      1. Simon69
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        What's the source of their source being 90% bollocks?

        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Most of the stuff on here that is referenced to the Athletic turns out to be wrong...

          1. Simon69
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            I find it quite reliable.

      2. PapaWengzz
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        David orstein's name is attached. Consider it confirmed

      3. Rotation's Alter Ego
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Nope, as breaking news go they lead the way.

        Helps when they have the financial backing to nab all the best journos 😉

    6. R.C
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      This is so confusing, help

      1. Rotation's Alter Ego
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Fulham Spurs GW 18
        Spurs Villa postponed
        GW 19 deadline possibly moved back

    7. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Confirmed for anyone still worried

      https://twitter.com/FulhamFC/status/1348611869221687298

    8. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Very nice, was set for doom as a non-FHer.

    9. Eddie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Great news. What a rollercoaster.

    10. Trippier Hazard
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Any news on whether Villa's 17th and 20th (DGW19) are intact, or do they fall within the self isolation timeframes?

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      too slow Daniel, too slow 🙂 hahaaha

        1. Simon69
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          The mirror c'mon

          1. Fulchester's New Centr…
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Solid left wing paper. 1st choice in Liverpool.

    2. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I still prefer KDB as a captain but does mean Son and Kane on the FH are probably a must now.

  2. ElliotJHP
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Thanks for the article Tom, would be looking at ESR & Richy if I was to free hit I think.

    Seen Villa vs Spurs has become Fulham vs Spurs, enough from this side to skip the FH or not? I'm thinking not with Burke and Wood.

    -
    Stones Cancelo *
    Son KdB Bruno Burke
    Wood

    * = AWB with a -4 for James, rest of the side is set up well for DGW

  3. merin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    What would you do with Sterling in this FH draft?

    DDG (Darlow)
    Maguire Cancelo Tierney (Clark Mitchell)
    KDB Sterling Bruno Son Saka
    Lacazette Wilson (Davis)

    0 ITB

    1. Flynny
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Get kane instead

      1. merin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Are you really that sold on Kane vs a good Villa defence?

        1. zon
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Fulham

    2. poulteren
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      is sterling out? He was just given a rest, no? so will be fresh and smash 3 past the seagulls

      1. merin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        not sure, I just saw his flag...

        1. Heavy Data
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Same, but if spurs play Fulham I'd switch to Kane

          1. merin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            According to the Athletic, Tottenham vs Fulham (previously scheduled) is now scheduled for Wednesday 13th in Gameweek 18 as rumoured.

            Aston Villa vs Tottenham (GW 18) has been postponed.

            1. sirmorbach
              • 7 Years
              3 years, 2 months ago

              Wow. Confirmed? That means Free Hit for me.

  4. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Hi.....Have played with my free hit and landed on this.

    Would consider rashford but can't fit him in.....0.1m left....any thought please?

    Lloris
    Cancelo telles tierney (kilman mitchell)
    Kdb Bruno son gundogan (Smith Rowe)
    Kane Lacazette Wilson

    Thanks

    1. Simon69
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Quiet time for you.

    2. poulteren
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I wouldnt have Lloris against one of the top attacking sides in the PL (unless you're assuming it's fulham?)

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        It's Fulham.

      2. Simon69
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        It's Fulham. Confirmed.

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      For FH18

      A) ESR, Rashford, Stones (no bench)
      B) Saka, Foden, Telles (COVID proof bench)

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Ah crap. Wanted to make a new post.

        That team is fine although I'd rather start ESR than Wilson.

  5. DeadStarComing
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    So we just need Saints v Leeds to move now? 🙂

    1. R.C
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes will be huge in this chaos

    2. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      You mean « into BGW18 »?

      1. DeadStarComing
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Yep. There was talk of moving it forward a week because of the Saints Shrewsbury tie being rearranged. Feels unlikely but then given what's happened today with the Spurs Fulham game would it be a huge shock?

  6. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Play down Pompey.

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      what this means?

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        It means they are at Underhill and choosing to face east in the first half.

    2. Ron_Swanson
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      All games suspended for 3 weeks (for Pompey)

  7. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Kane or Son who will do better against Fulham? Thinking about my captain. Not interested in KDB for now

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Expect Fulham to sit deep, so maybe Kane. probably toss a coin.

  8. Fuddled FC
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Just checking something

    If I play my FH now and make changes, can I continue to tinker up until the deadline

    I'm assuming so, just checking 🙂

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

  9. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Best moves here with 2FT and 0m itb. Assuming that Spurs/Fulham is on, i have 8 players but including taylor/burke so technically only 6.

    --- Martinez Forster
    Taylor Cancelo Stones -- Coufal Dallas
    Bruno Kdb Son Burke -- Salah
    DCL -- Watkins Bamford

    A: Salah + Watkins >> Saka + Kane
    B: Salah + Watkins >> Rashford + Laca
    C: Salah + Watkins + Forster >> Rashford + Laca + Leno/DDG (-4)
    D: Salah + Watkins + Burke >> Rashford + Laca + Saka (-4)

  10. poulteren
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Why is there seemingly so little interest in Steffen in goal for City in FH teams? amazing value to get exposure to clean sheet? and less rotation risk than cancelo etc

    1. aleksaa2
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He won't start in the PL. Ederson is g2g.

      1. poulteren
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        ah, sorry. My bad. Thanks

    2. R.C
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Ederson is back lad

      1. poulteren
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        ah, sorry. My bad. Thanks

    3. Studs Up
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Why would Pep drop Ederson ?

      1. poulteren
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I thought he was still isolating. My bad

    4. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      One word. Ederson.

    5. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I like Lloris now.

    6. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      The other goalie. What’s his face

  11. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    So is Villa TGW still on then?

  12. drughi
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Feels good siting with FH able to juggle with so many good options with city, spurs, arsenal and united having great fixtures. Many possible drafts that looks good

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      It's so easy to make affordable drafts. Have no clue why people would have activated the chip so early on into the GW rather than wait for the news to trickle through as it has.

    2. The Train Driver
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Feels even better to field 11 players without using FH.

      1. drughi
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        rip next week for the double then

        1. The Train Driver
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Will have 8 double players + 3 Spurs. 10 doubles if I play BB.

          3 City, 1 WHU, 2 ManU, 1 WBA/AV (GK), 1 LEEDS, 3 Spurs playing SHU. Just using FT.

    3. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Would have been better with no Spurs, tough to fit in differentials now with Kane and Son must haves.

  13. _Ninja_
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Already on a hit. Play the below or play FH?

    Dias Stones AWB
    KDB Bruno Son
    DCL Kane

    Martinez Johnstone Coufal Dallas
    Grealish Soucek Salah Bamford

  14. Silecro
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bottomed:

    If spurs play vs Fulham, how do you like this FH? a bit different than others with Martial in it, but I have faith in him starting:

    Lloris
    Cancelo,Stones,Tierney
    KDB, Bruno, Son, Saka
    Kane, Martial, Wilson

    4.0, ESR, Lascelles, 3.8

    Cheers!

    1. drughi
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      like it, prefer DCL and dias over martial and stones myself

      1. Silecro
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        yeah, i just have a feeling Martial will do well vs Burnley, so giving him a shot

        1. drughi
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          good luck

    2. Jonesfromthere
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I like it, but can’t see Spurs stomping Fulham tbh. Would take Rash over Son

  15. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Fulham can’t complain here

    They were at fault for the last minute cancellation v Spurs before
    Should have played a few reserves and they wouldn’t be in this situation

    1. R.C
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Lol

    2. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      They werent at fault for last time cancellation. It’s the PL which took too long to take action and postpone the game

    3. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Covid cases are nobodys "fault". One kid comes home from school with covid and suddenly there is a risk of the whole team having it. Harsh to judge so blindly.

      1. HuttonDressedasLahm
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        It’s not “ideal” but the season isn’t either

  16. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    This season just gets crazier and crazier!!

  17. Caleb's Kitties
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Son and kane back in FH team if spurs plays fulham 🙂 how's this XI?

    Leno
    Cancelo stones dier
    KDB fernandes rashford son saka
    Kane lacazette

    1. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Very good. And 85-90% similar to all FH teams.

    2. The Left Duke #3
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      U must have amazing TV. I'm about 2.4m off that

    3. Silecro
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Its not bad, but personally i dont see Arsenal rolling over Palace. One attacker may be enough

    4. EWH2020
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      How do you afford that!!?

    5. Soonmixdin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Got pretty much the same team as you, but Yedlin + Davies instead of Cancelo/Dier. Good luck!

  18. ShaunGoater123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    thoughts on the below FH team?

    Ramsdale
    Cancelo / Stones / Holding / Maguire
    Son / Fernandes / Aubameyang / KDB / Smith-Rowe
    Kane

    Verrips / Silva / Brewster / Mitchell

  19. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Ben Crellin no where to be seen!

    1. Simon69
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He's in his panic room

    2. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He's not needed now tbh .... Every man and their dog has access to the more reliable twitter sources, The Athletic .etc.

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      He needs to wait for the FA Cup draws to do the majority of his work so whilst he can update a little, might as well save the bulk of it till later.

      That and he probably has a day job.

  20. Don Kloppeone
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    The expected carnage is here .... wonderful!

    We have a full 27 hrs 45 mins of this to come 😉

  21. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    So, Villa match postponed, Spurs vs. Fulham confirmed? Is that like, 100%? Or still speculation?

    1. Simon69
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Hunny pc

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Not confirmed. Just wait till it is.

    3. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      It's confirmed

    4. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      95% sure.

  22. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Fulham have been offered the option of switching Friday's game v Chelsea to Saturday.

    https://twitter.com/sistoney67/status/1348611316756467713

  23. Sid07
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    If you have no tot player, time to FH

    1. tambourineman
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Fulham have confirmed the fixture changes

  24. Andy_Social
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Sigh, perfectly goor FH squad ripped up to accommodate Spuds...

  25. YoungPretender
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    GTG on FH?

    DDG (4.0)
    Dias Cancelo Dier (Mitchell, White)
    KDB Bruno Son Saka (Smith-Rowe)
    Kane Wilson Laca

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Wilson a doubt - got an alternative?

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I'm going 2 yo top - Laca and Kane. Davis at 4.3 on the bench to get a decent midfield.

        1. Gazwaz80
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Same...

  26. S.Kuqi
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    On wildcard. Worth keeping Martinez and hope he is ok for double?

    Other gk will be Areola most likely

  27. Salah’s Sonnet
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    So Spurs now play Fulham this GW instead of Villa?

  28. LSK
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Sky sports news confirm Spurs v Fulham for Weds.